No deal really seems to be happening...
No deal really seems to be happening...
Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer
There's absolutely no way the country would have voted to leave the EU without a trade deal.
That idea was never entertained. It was quite the opposite.
I'd put my mortgage on the vast majority of the country not wanting what's about to happen.
Probably fewer than 1 in 5 who'd say they want a "no deal" outcome. It is, nevertheless, what the old English actually ended up voting for—whether they realized it or not.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
I must say I am starting to understand why the Commission wasn't willing to jump the gun on publishing their no-deal plans. At first I thought they looked awfully close like the many small deals brexiteers were going on about. Untill I read the price they plan to extract for air and road traffic to continue to a reasonable extent. I understand how you could leverage transport against the Brits. But it's harsh.
If this happens, it shows the EU doesn't give a damn about who's blamed for a no deal Brexit.
Congratulations America
So what do people think?
Let's have some predictions from everyone. Just a few days left. Winner gets a virtual cookie and the right to claim they got Brexit right.
I guess we've got a deal, no deal or extension.
No need to give rationale.
I'm going for.......deal.
I say no deal. Mostly because the British government had a negotiating strategy that was extremely ill advised. They never internalized that Brexit actually changed everything even though we were still in a state of suspension.
What they should have realized was that they were negotiating as a third country rather than an ex-member of the club. That nothing they were asking for should happen because it was they way things had been for decades or logical or (worst one) what the EU should want.
Going back to the beginning isn't possible any longer, and to get a deal the UK would have to humiliate itself so bad that I don't see any chance of that happening.
Congratulations America
No deal.
Too much intransigence.
I think it's a coin flip whether there'll be a deal or not.
VDL and the Dutch PM this morning hinting at EU willingness to move. Devil will be in the detail whether it's a real move or lipstick on a pig though.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Rutte has merely said what all EU leaders have been saying for months; 'we want a deal, but not at any price'. VDL had 10 minutes for an update and that was it. There was no discussion, and the mandate is what it is. With the added message that there's no need to rush into a deal, just because the transition ends.
And if you don't want the temporary emergency agreements, well, planes don't have to fly, trucks don't have to drive between the EU and UK. For us it's a nuisance, but not a disaster.
On and what VDL said means that she thinks it's rubbish to say you can't be sovereign with LPF rules in a free trade agreement.
Maybe De Pfeffel should get the message; this is as good as it gets. No need to stalk Merkel or Macron; we have VDL to explain to him that we're not going to change our red lines.
Congratulations America
No deal. EU will graciously extend an olive branch in the form of some sort of limited agreement to mitigate the immediate chaos; HMG will cock it up. Not sure whether it's legally possible to amend existing agreement to allow for a short implementation period before "no deal" becomes a reality.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Sorry, I accidentally embedded the wrong tweet
This is the one I intended to post:
Twitter Link
In response to claims of Dutch PM hinting at EU's willingness to move, and the asinine fixation on individual leaders who're supposed to take Barnier by the ear and tell him what's what
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
No deal. Just because i want to agree with you for using a word i didn't know
Keep on keepin' the beat alive!
Could it be that Johnson is going for no deal because he's terrified of Nigel Farage? Nigel could seriously damage the Tory party if the deal isn't good enough, which it never would be.
Johnson lacks the political mandate and legislative support needed to do what he would need to do to secure a deal. His personal contribution to this is not the "no deal" outcome—it's the utterly shambolic way in which that outcome is reached.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
I agree his contribution to all this has been appalling, but I don't know what you mean when you say he doesn't have a political mandate to do what he needs to do. Do you mean compromise? Not sure whether you're agreeing with the question or not.
I don't think he's afraid of Farrage. I think he's painted himself into a corner he won't be able to escape from as long as a big part of his party and his electorate still believe Brexit is the beginning of a re-birth as Global Great Brittain.
We have a resident example of how deluded they are.
Congratulations America
I mean that I believe he has no viable path to a deal, because he doesn't have the political mandate or the parliamentary support needed to compromise to a sufficiently great extent on key issues like the level playing field, CJEU jurisdiction, and NI. So I guess what I'm saying is that, if he's "going for no deal", I believe it's probably because he has nothing else he can really go for... Farage or no Farage.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
I think we have to blame the British press in part for the lack of understanding in the UK of what they can expect. We see this in the ridiculous notion that EU negotiations always go to the wire. EU negotiations don't go to the wire, political Council decisions go to the wire. To the extent that the principles are agreed upon, the details are hammered out and the last sticking points are negotiated out in the Council. For external agreements the EU has never let anything 'go to the wire'. And this EU-UK falls in the category of external negotiations. But we also see interpretations of what EU officials say that are too crazy for words. In a situation where the EU basically wants to tie down the UK and wants to be able to effectively do that, VDL says that the UK is still sovereign to decide whether or not to follow the EU in new legislation, after which the EU will decide on how that affects access to the Single Market. She says EXACTLY the same in slightly different words, that merely counter the British rejection and British media report that as an 'opening' to a deal.
It's maddening sometimes.
Congratulations America
So, it's sunday and the call is going on it seems. Any bets on the outcome? Break down of talks? Talks continue, because nobody wants to be the one that walked away? Or talks continue because a deal may still be done?
Congratulations America
This major development is making me a lot less certain about my prediction...
Twitter Link
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Sounds like the EU may have moved enough to make a deal possible. Good thread:
Twitter Link
Last time we moved it was right into Northern Ireland.
Congratulations America
And that is different from a ratchet clause precisely how?
Because that's what it's about: Balance.
Seems to me like someone has been bamboozled by a change of wording while said wording actually arrives at the exact same outcome: You being unable to undercut us.
When the stars threw down their spears
And watered heaven with their tears:
Did he smile his work to see?
Did he who made the lamb make thee?
Offers more freedom at least in theory.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
There's three major changes that have been leaked in the press that make a deal look viable to me if confirmed. Balance is indeed key.
Firstly the EU ratchet clause originally would have meant the UK could face "lightning" tariffs for divergence but the UK couldn't reciprocate. Now it seems reciprocity has been confirmed. Or as you put it - balance.
Secondly Barnier was demanding the EU could object to UK state aid and the UK could object to individual EU nations aid - but that EU multinational aid wouldn't count as state aid. Now it seems that it's being recognised that multinational state aid at an EU level is actually state aid. Or as you put it - balance.
Finally divergence tariffs were suggested at being applied like 'lightning' before any arbitration etc and without restrictions or limitations. Now it sounds more formalised and well managed.
If we wish to diverge and that means you apply tariffs I don't care about that, so long as it is reciprocal.
Yeah, I do not buy that "no reciprocation" clause. You probably bought some codswallop hook, line and sinker.
Or do you mean: We find you in breach of contract, invoke punitive clauses and you complain that you may not invoke tariffs on us as well?
In that case: Fuck off. Or next time you act in self-defense and punch someone you get thrown into prison for bodily harm.
If that is your attitude: Doubly fuck off. We don't need two-faced liars like you who cannot be trusted as far as we can throw you. And I seriously hope whereever you're employed goes under due to Brexit. Just so you yourself can reap what you sow.
When the stars threw down their spears
And watered heaven with their tears:
Did he smile his work to see?
Did he who made the lamb make thee?
Come on man, he has kids.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
He bought into this long before he had children. I couldn't have predicted to be so close to the truth, but most of the events of the last four years have been somewhat predictable as a result of Brexit. Yet he asked of me to give him a reason to vote to stay. Where thousands of children being forced into poverty should have been a strong reason to use his vote more wisely.
Congratulations America
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