Rumour mill abuzz that a deal is close.
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Rumour mill abuzz that a deal is close.
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Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer
Do you seriously believe in a deal that makes Brexiteers happy? To believe that is possible is way beyond believing in unicorns.
Congratulations America
I think many Brexiteers will be happy to move their goalposts now that they have a better idea of the challenges ahead. Almost beginning to think Angloskeptics will prove to be a bigger threat to a deal than Euroskeptics
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Yes absolutely, things are looking good.
What's passed with little remark is how very good the UK's negotiations on non EU deals have gone this year. Liz Truss has done an absolutely fantastic job.
What do you think Truss has done that's been absolutely amazing?
My understanding is that she's largely just rolled over existing deals. I imagine most negotiations were along the line of "fancy sticking with the same deal?" and "sure, it was pretty great anyway".
She also signed away a massive amount of our precious sovereignty in the Japan deal. The state aid rules are stricter than what than what we're offering the EU. Given that sovereignty is s binary, we're no longer a free and independent nation.
I'd say she's done the bare minimum of what's expected of her.
You say its easy but her predecessor Liam Fox had been in the role for 3 years and had achieved the intersection of diddly and squat. By the time we Brexited we not only didn't have a deal with the EU we didn't have a deal with almost any of our major partners that the EU had deals with. Many countries like Canada were suggesting they weren't willing to rollover our deal until they knew what deal we had with the EU.
In twelve months Truss has transformed that. Except for Turkey* the UK has now rolled every single significant third party EU deal meaning we're no longer at the risk of losing any of them, or having them wait to find out what we get with the EU. The only deal outstanding now is the EU itself which takes a lot of the pressure off compared to where we were twelve months ago.
Furthermore talks have begun in deepening or extending some of these - notably but not exclusively Japan and Canada - going further than the EU deal did for Services which is our main export not goods, plus Services are well suited for global trade.
Plus talks have begun with a number of extra countries now always and more countries are lined up for talks. Talks with India begin next year and others have already begun.
Plus talk has begun of the UK acceding to join the CPTPP (formerly Transpacific Partnership or TPP) which is a free trade framework minus the politics etc that is irritating from the EU. If the UK does join the CPTPP then the CPTPP would overtake the EU as a bigger share of global GDP, plus it is a much faster growing set of economies.
Finally you've fallen for Fake News regarding the Japan agreement and state aid. The state aid rules in the Japan deal are fairly standard and nothing like what the EU have asked for. There isn't a chance the Japan deal's agreement will have tougher state aid restrictions than any EU/UK deal would.
If the UK as I expect ends up with an FTA with the EU plus potentially membership of the CPTPP, services deals with extra nations like Japan and Canada and more, plus extra FTAs too then we will I expect be in a real 'cake and eat it' situation with the best of both worlds: free trade with the EU and globally and not paying for the EU membership anymore, nor having to put up with their politics anymore etc - we will end up with free trade with a significant proportion of the world's GDP and not just our continent's GDP.
* Turkey is in a customs union with the EU so we can't negotiate with Turkey. Any agreed UK/EU deal will be followed by a UK/Turkey deal that matches it since its the same customs union.
I think it's more a case of Liam Fox being utterly useless, but there you go.
I got my info from the FT, https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft....3-31b2247fa178
It hands over significant sovereignty. Something I imagine you're not happy about.
And I didn't say it's what the EU asked for. I said what we wanted.
The only thing I see is that the UK is pretty much surrendering every red line.
Congratulations America
No it doesn't hand over significant sovereignty and yes I'm happy with it. The Japanese state aid regulations were entirely reasonable and acceptable - did you read that FT article in full?
Comparing the Japanese deal agreed with the UK's proposal to the EU is not reasonable since the UK didn't want or expect its opening proposal to the EU to be accepted.
The EU were making absurdly maximalist demands so the UK responded with overly minimalist ones. Then the compromise happens and we meet somewhere in the middle. Its all part and parcel of negotiating - they say they want 10/10 so we say we are offering 1/10 and we negotiate to meet at 5/10. OTOH if we'd put an opening offer of 5/10 in then we meet in the middle at 8/10.
Ha!
The UK has moved the Overton Window so far that even if we accepted the EU's current position it isn't what you were close to saying nine months ago.
But that's not happening. Like the Japanese agreement from that FT article, what's going to be agreed is going to be closer to the UK's worldview than the EU's.
You may be happy and that's good. I find your position a little inconsistent and hypocritical, that's up to you and I can't change that.
I'm personally not happy with it. I am trying to embrace Brexit. I want it to be a roaring success and I want Johnson to fight for the best deal we can get. I think the country will do just fine outside of the EU and don't believe I've ever said things "disaster" to describe it. Anyway, in embracing Brexit, I am keen to stick to the principles on which Brexit was founded, and what the people voted for. The will of the people, if you will.
We voted for sovereignty and to be a free and independent nation once again. That means having complete and total control on our laws. It does NOT mean making our laws with other nations and it does NOT mean surrendering our sovereign freedoms.
Handing over sovereignty like this is not a good thing. Why should Japan have any influence on how we intend to fund and support our own industries? What business is that of theirs? Are they worried we might out compete them? Why?
We must remember that sovereignty is binary. We either have it or we don't. And we do not have it with the Japan deal.
Let's also remember what people voted for - democracy. Truss is effectively, unilateral signing these continuity deals with her army of un-elected bureaucrats. She is not bringing any of these deals before parliament for scrutiny and approval. That's not a good thing and is a step backwards from the EU process.
I contend that you would not be happy if it were a Labour politician unilaterally signing all these deals.
My understanding is that we would negotiate significantly better trade deals than those we did when we were in the EU, because the EU trade deals had been bad for us and held us back. Whilst I'm keen to arrange trade deals quickly, I want them to be right and better for us. I expected lots of significant changes and would prefer us to slow down and renegotiation properly - using the principles of Brexit as a foundation and not just rolling over the EU ones.
Yes I did. What I said was true and not, as you claimed, fake news.
I do not know whether you are correct here - in that we retaliated with unreasonable demands because the EU demands were unreasonable. Have you got a source that shows the timeline of events and negotiating positions to prove this? I somewhat agree with your analogy of how negotiations work, but in my view Truss's approach has hurt UK negotiations with the EU. There's little point surrendering our sovereignty to other nations whilst at the same time asking for lighter restrictions with the EU. To me, it shows a complete lack of consistency and principles.
You may think you're being clever with your strawman about the Japanese deal but I know you don't really personally believe it do you?
It seems to me you don't fully understand the sovereignty argument or the distinction between standard FTAs between countries on a respectful and reciprocal nature - and the EU's own systems.
Also Parliament endorsed the Japan deal.
Well, I didn't use to believe it, no. Spot on.
I'm trying to now though because it's important that everyone embrace Brexit and make the most of the opportunities it presents. Whether you believe me or not is no concern of mine. I'm only positioning myself in line with leading Brexiteers and the will of the people. That seems like the right thing to do.
Spot on again. I don't fully understand these things and I've never said otherwise. They are complex subjects and if I've said something incorrect could you please point it out and educate me?
Ah, good, then the article I read was incorrect. However I can't seem to find a voting record for it and how my MP voted. Can you?
I think we've got an actual deadline. The EP had decided it will not ratify any deal this year delivered after 23.59 on sunday 20th. Nor will it accomodate any bridge deal.
Congratulations America
Though the Commission can override your Parliament. Because democracy or something.
True; having the Queen of the EU prorogue Parliament whenever things don't go the chairperson's way would've been a better look.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
They can't.
Congratulations America
They can.
The can implement it on a provisional basis bypassing the Parliament.
That's not bypassing Parliament, and it's also not possible against the expressed will of Parliament. Provisional application assumes that Parliament in principle has no objections to the agreed document. Application also is limited to EU-only elements of any agreement. So it merely means, no tariffs and no quotas applied. All non-trade elements of an agreement can not be applied.
Also, your 'bypassing' of the EP needs all 27 members agreeing with rubberstamping whatever Barnier presents to them. I wish you good luck with that plan.
P.S. I don't expect a solution for the fishing rights can or will be reached that is acceptable to the UK and EU. The minimum ask of the EU is well above what the UK can agree with, especially with it's need to assert its 'sovereignty'. The maximum the UK can offer falls well short of what the EU can accept, given historical rights.
Last edited by Hazir; 12-18-2020 at 06:27 PM.
Congratulations America
I imagine Johnson is drawing this out for so long is because the wants to avoid parliamentary scrutiny. Looks like he's planning to give parliament one day to look at it.
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"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Wrong thread. Covid not Brexit.
I'm amazed that 80% of goods are still flowing with the border shut, due to the fact that 80% of goods are unaccompanied. I was very surprised it was so much.
No, correct thread - illustrative of how haulage is affected by sudden border obstruction, and how detached from reality govt. projections/assurances are (eg. the claim re ~170 lorries, which was very wrong at the time and quickly became absurdly wrong). I have a feeling the 20% number might be misleading; afaict, it's in reference to the estimated share of freight going through Dover on lorries, but shipping through Eurotunnel (which is probably mostly unaccompanied, in individual shipping containers) was also affected at the time. More importantly, the figure obscures the critical importance of that 20% - which probably accounts for eg. almost all of the fresh produce. Your heart is a relatively smart part of your body by weight, but it's a part you really don't want to lose.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
The 170 number refers to a different thing. It wasn't said as how many lorries were waiting to cross the border (of course the lorries previously waiting still were) it was how many were stuck on the M20 carriageway. Thanks to operating Operation Brock many of the lorries had been taken off it - they were still waiting but they weren't on the M20 carriageway anymore. If you're talking statistics its important to understand what statistic is being used and how it applies.
Sudden border obstruction happens. This isn't the first time that the border has been suddenly obstructed the French going on strike have done this before. In case you're not aware French wildcat strikes love to target Calais as it makes immediate scenes, so this isn't unprecedented even if a total 100% shutdown like this is unusual - and won't realistically happen under Brexit.
This is a health not Brexit issue, the only role Brexit played is thanks to Brexit planning they were more prepared for the disruption so investment done for the last few years meant contraflows etc were more easily activated.
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Ie. the number was wrong at the time and is hilariously wrong now.
It is precisely because the consequences of border delays - whether due to a total closure or just substantial increases in processing times - are well known that the disregard for warnings from logistics experts has been so concerning.Sudden border obstruction happens. This isn't the first time that the border has been suddenly obstructed the French going on strike have done this before. In case you're not aware French wildcat strikes love to target Calais as it makes immediate scenes, so this isn't unprecedented even if a total 100% shutdown like this is unusual - and won't realistically happen under Brexit.
It's not a health issue, it's a freight and policy issue - one that is highly relevant to Brexit, where one of the scenarios has always been significant delays at the border. Hence the ongoing jokes about Kent.This is a health not Brexit issue, the only role Brexit played is thanks to Brexit planning they were more prepared for the disruption so investment done for the last few years meant contraflows etc were more easily activated.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Just lmfao at the thought of Lord Hannan
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
The queue for the queue for the Dover ferry.
When the stars threw down their spears
And watered heaven with their tears:
Did he smile his work to see?
Did he who made the lamb make thee?
After two days of the border being totally shut due to a global pandemic concern ... We have about as many trucks stuck now as were stuck when the French went on strike over MyFerryLink.
The queue for the queue for the Dover ferry.
Get used to the sight.
When the stars threw down their spears
And watered heaven with their tears:
Did he smile his work to see?
Did he who made the lamb make thee?
Tbf those who have some advance warning can choose not to go at all
The queue for the queue for the Dover ferry.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
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