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Thread: Brexit Begins

  1. #901
    I think we ought to be able to sign such deals within a decade.

    May not be instant but we are looking for the best deal for the long-term not just next week.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  2. #902
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    About ten billion per annum net we are paying. That is about ten billion more than we get back on a pure accounting term. Since that ten billion excludes receipts we get back but may not agree with the implementation of (like CAP farm payments) that is a low ball conservative figure to use.

    Labour: We get nothing for our money. Absolutely nothing would prevent us from unilaterally allowing free movement if we wanted to without a penny in transfers. Australia and New Zealand have a comparable bilateral free movement agreement without the Kiwis needing to pay the Aussies anything. Many nations have had very liberal immigration policies when it suited them to do so.

    Goods and services: I think we should sign an FTA. FTA's don't come with tens of billions of annual payments either.

    Can you answer your own question? How much are we getting that we couldn't get with either an FTA or a unilateral or bilateral liberal immigration policy?
    The main problem with getting to a deal is a fundamental misunderstanding on 'your' side. You guys want something we don't want to give to you and were never willing to give you. Your leaders surprisingly keep thinking that somehow, by being smart enough you can still somehow get what you what we don't want to give you. Even supposedly in the know people can't let that idea go. Look at Rodgers saying today that May triggered article 50 'too early' and this is why the UK is getting screwed. As if May wasn't being completely stonewalled for the exact same reason I just laid out; we are not willing to give you what you want. Your government could have waited 40 years with notification and still nobody would have talked with you about Brexit.

    You also constantly were hoping for some EU country to save you from a Brexit you didn't actually like, and now have reached the point where you even are sweet on the Comission in the hope that they may see the mutuality in giving you what you want.

    You guys should really stop doing that. You should get real on the divorce. You should also realise that you are not as trusted as you think you are. (That also means that May should kick everybody from the cabinet who makes an orderly Brexit impossible, be they ultra Breximaniac or Remainer.) Stop playing games about the rights of citizens, don't say you're being generous, be generous. Make a hard commitment to the budget till 2020 and refer all other contributions to the talks about the future. That should probably mean you commit to an amount of about 50 billion over the next years but it's definetely worth it if that gets you an orderly departure. Do the logical thing and make a deal that keeps NI in both the single market and the customs union. Yes that will be somewhat odd inside the UK but it's also the most logical solution to the problem at hand.

    What you will get in exchange for that is a transition period that will actually make it possible for you to have a deal with the EU that gives you your much vaunted sovereignty and which will not disrupt trade too much. You'll also probably be able to make special deals on continued membership of specific EU programs. And yes, that will come with payments and accepting the jurisdiction of the ECJ in part. There is no way around that. You will lose the present frictionless access to the EU, single market but it needn't be as painful as trying to struggle on with us being pissed at you for making a shambles of the divorce and not giving a damn about how much pain falling off the cliff causes you.
    Greece shows us that there is a kind of politician worse than the ones that break their election promises; the ones that keep their election promises.

  3. #903
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    I think we ought to be able to sign such deals within a decade.

    May not be instant but we are looking for the best deal for the long-term not just next week.
    Yes, long-term is nice and all. But what will your industry do during those ten years?

    You're like a guys who blasts his legs off with a shotgun and then proclaims: "That didn't hurt! And those cyberprosthesis they're currently developing will be even better than my real legs!"
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  4. #904
    They will trade, adapt, evolve.

    There is no amputation involved here.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  5. #905
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    They will trade, adapt, evolve.

    There is no amputation involved here.
    You realize that "Going Extinct" is also a consequence of Evolution, right? Here's a list of stuff you'll have major problems with because you will not have proper agreements:
    1) Access to airspace - taking off and landing at European airports.
    2) You'll need visas
    3) Your expats in Spain and other EU nations will face problems because their healthcare won't be covered anymore
    4) If you want to bring your pet into the EU it will be placed into quarantine
    5) Your pharmaceutical companies won't be allowed to sell their drugs anymore
    6) Your chemical industry won't be allowed to sell new chemicals in the EU
    7) Say goodbye to some forms of cancer treatments - no radioactive isotopes for you
    8) You'll have to watch over agrarian imports yourselves (EU-Trade Control and Expert System)
    9) Your financial sector will be crippled
    10) Your customs agents at the border will be swamped for months - you have neither the software, nor the manpower, nor the space requirements. Your own government estimates that the number of customs declarations will increase from 55 million to 255 million. That's a five-fold increase.
    11) Any company doing some form of just-in-time production will be crippled due to 10)

    Just some highlights. That is not a complete list. The EU nations can compensate - our trade deals still exist.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  6. #906
    Well, maybe no amputation but a mangling and painful injury.

    And then a badly-healed shrivelled excuse of a limb once the decade is over, with no decent physiotherapy after that, just a knackered, rusty old wheelchair to sit in while a fat arthritic nurse reluctantly prods your toes and asks "Can you feel that? Can you feel it now?", as you look longingly out the the grimy window of the forgotten hospice you now find yourself in gazing over to the shiny prosperous land back across the years of time where you used to live, healthy and happy and injury-free.
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    It's actually the original French billion, which is bi-million, which is a million to the power of 2. We adopted the word, and then they changed it, presumably as revenge for Crecy and Agincourt, and then the treasonous Americans adopted the new French usage and spread it all over the world. And now we have to use it.

    And that's Why I'm Voting Leave.

  7. #907
    Quote Originally Posted by Khendraja'aro View Post
    You realize that "Going Extinct" is also a consequence of Evolution, right? Here's a list of stuff you'll have major problems with because you will not have proper agreements:
    1) Access to airspace - taking off and landing at European airports.
    2) You'll need visas
    3) Your expats in Spain and other EU nations will face problems because their healthcare won't be covered anymore
    4) If you want to bring your pet into the EU it will be placed into quarantine
    5) Your pharmaceutical companies won't be allowed to sell their drugs anymore
    6) Your chemical industry won't be allowed to sell new chemicals in the EU
    7) Say goodbye to some forms of cancer treatments - no radioactive isotopes for you
    8) You'll have to watch over agrarian imports yourselves (EU-Trade Control and Expert System)
    9) Your financial sector will be crippled
    10) Your customs agents at the border will be swamped for months - you have neither the software, nor the manpower, nor the space requirements. Your own government estimates that the number of customs declarations will increase from 55 million to 255 million. That's a five-fold increase.
    11) Any company doing some form of just-in-time production will be crippled due to 10)

    Just some highlights. That is not a complete list. The EU nations can compensate - our trade deals still exist.
    Your Chicken Licken attitude is just a load of codswallop. This is like Bird Flu, Y2K and other supposed crises that turn out to be a flash in the pan. I feel like I've warped back twenty years to when everyone was banging on about how in two years time when Y2K happens all computers will shut down, planes won't fly etc
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  8. #908
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Your Chicken Licken attitude is just a load of codswallop. This is like Bird Flu, Y2K and other supposed crises that turn out to be a flash in the pan. I feel like I've warped back twenty years to when everyone was banging on about how in two years time when Y2K happens all computers will shut down, planes won't fly etc
    The world spent hundreds of billions of dollars on Y2K-problem remediation before major problems afflicted large operations. While your local corner-store may not have had reason to anticipate any major Y2K-related problems in the year 2000, an age long past, large companies and govt. institutions had reason to expect much greater problems. Successful businesses and effective institutions have to anticipate problems and address them appropriately.

    The comparison to Brexit is appropriate, but not in the way you believe. Most businesses in the UK don't rely directly on unrestricted access to the single market. However, many large companies--esp. transnational ones who rely on free flow of personnel, data, services and goods--and institutions--esp. those involved with trade eg. customs--will be directly affected by the restrictions. The customs-related issues can't be hand-waved away, they have to be solved in advance or avoided altogether. The current plan for updating the system is not designed to handle a hard Brexit. When it comes to businesses for which free movement is mission-critical (such as the kind of manufacturing Khen mentioned), you should expect some to be crippled or to go bust altogether, if they fail to set appropriate contingency plans into motion (which, given the government's extraordinarily irresponsible secrecy and blatant incompetence, is likely to entail moving important parts of their operation). Even the most positive scenarios see your businesses and institutions grappling with extreme uncertainty and new obstacles for several years, at a high cost. You may not be bothered by this, because, after all, it's always easier to waste other people's money, but your blithe dismissal of other people's problems make you look both stupid and malicious.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  9. #909
    Hold on there one moment. I am not dismissing the idea that some problems and costs will exist, especially if this is handled badly by government (which I agree is possible).

    But Khen went much further than that and listed ludicrous things like "7) Say goodbye to some forms of cancer treatments - no radioactive isotopes for you"

    Do you honestly believe that post-Brexit we are going to be lacking radioactive isotopes required for cancer treatments? It is simply codswallop.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  10. #910
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    About ten billion per annum net we are paying.
    Incorrect. 2016/17 you paid ca 8bn net. Average for 2010-2014 was ca 7bn p a.

    Labour: We get nothing for our money. Absolutely nothing would prevent us from unilaterally allowing free movement if we wanted to without a penny in transfers.
    Absurd. This is in no way viable in current anti-immigration and protectionist political climate in the UK. It also presumes that free movement in the other direction has no value to UK (research, studies, consultancy, etc).

    Australia and New Zealand have a comparable bilateral free movement agreement without the Kiwis needing to pay the Aussies anything.

    Goods and services: I think we should sign an FTA. FTA's don't come with tens of billions of annual payments either.
    NZ & Aus relations are not comparable to relations between EU countries except at the most superficial level of analysis. EU has expanded to include more and more countries, and uses contributions to accelerate development of newcomers' economies eg. through improving infrastructure, industry, research capabilities etc. A more appropriate comparison is between countries within the UK, or smaller administrative regions within a country, whether it's the UK, Spain, the US or whatever.

    Can you answer your own question? How much are we getting that we couldn't get with either an FTA or a unilateral or bilateral liberal immigration policy?
    This is not a difficult question to answer. Member state contributions are a core part of the EU agreement and you cannot expect the same level of access to the single market without contributions. Every country with a level of access close to that of a full member contributes directly to the EU budget. In other words, when you presume that you can get the same level of access without significant integration & compliance as well as direct contributions, you're mistaken. In theory you can get everything for nothing, but in reality deals have restrictions and every actor has issues on which they won't compromise. Just as the UK has red lines, so too does the EU.

    When you try to determine whether or not your payments are worth it, you should compare it to a realistic alternative rather than to a fantasy. By the standards established over the past several decades, high level of access without compliance and payments is not realistic.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  11. #911
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Your Chicken Licken attitude is just a load of codswallop. This is like Bird Flu, Y2K and other supposed crises that turn out to be a flash in the pan. I feel like I've warped back twenty years to when everyone was banging on about how in two years time when Y2K happens all computers will shut down, planes won't fly etc
    No Randblade, that is not like any of those things. This is about a real serious end to frictionless interaction. All the rules that made that possible will no longer apply as of the minute that you Brexit. Don't fool yourself thinking that all will be ok, because nothing really changes. Everything changes at the strike of 11 on the 29th of march 2019. Not because the material world changes but because the entire regulatory system no longer applies.

    Your goods and services no longer are compliant. Not because they change overnight but because the certification of such no longer is valid. Not the European one because you're not in the EU and not the British one because that isn't recognized or maybe not even existant.
    Greece shows us that there is a kind of politician worse than the ones that break their election promises; the ones that keep their election promises.

  12. #912
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Hold on there one moment. I am not dismissing the idea that some problems and costs will exist, especially if this is handled badly by government (which I agree is possible).

    But Khen went much further than that and listed ludicrous things like "7) Say goodbye to some forms of cancer treatments - no radioactive isotopes for you"

    Do you honestly believe that post-Brexit we are going to be lacking radioactive isotopes required for cancer treatments? It is simply codswallop.
    Actually it would be illegal for us to deliver them to you.
    Greece shows us that there is a kind of politician worse than the ones that break their election promises; the ones that keep their election promises.

  13. #913
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    He doesn't realize that there aren't that many sources of the proper isotopes.

    For instance, for (99)Molybdenum (which yields (99m)Technetium, an important isotope for scintigraphy) there are only a handful of production sites in the world. Two of them in Europe, NONE of them in the UK. And these production sites are prohibitively expensive. Oh, and the reactors which irradiate the targets for the production sites? Four of them are in Europe. None in the UK. Again, those aren't bog-standard reactors.
    Last edited by Khendraja'aro; 10-26-2017 at 06:53 PM.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  14. #914
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  15. #915
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    Brexit is really the gift that just keeps on giving; BoE raises interest rates for the first time in a decade and the pound slumps.
    Greece shows us that there is a kind of politician worse than the ones that break their election promises; the ones that keep their election promises.

  16. #916
    The increasingly bizarre debates and domestic legal problems have been truly astonishing.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  17. #917
    Quote Originally Posted by Hazir View Post
    Brexit is really the gift that just keeps on giving; BoE raises interest rates for the first time in a decade and the pound slumps.
    The interest rate rise was already priced in, it was long since sign-posted and taken for granted not a shock. What was a surprise was the forward guidance indicating that future rises will be slow and limited, plus 2 on the committee voting against the rate rise and that is what has moved the market.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  18. #918
    Smart people are saying there was a lot of black money flowing from Russia to Brexit supporters during the Brexit campaign.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  19. #919
    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    Smart people are saying there was a lot of black money flowing from Russia to Brexit supporters during the Brexit campaign.
    Been long suspected that Brexit was a test run. Large number of very active fake or automated social media accounts managed by Russia-affiliated or individuals. US campaign was slightly more evenly balanced on both sides of divisive issues.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  20. #920
    The social media stuff is overblown. But if there were transfers of money to Brits, heads will roll.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  21. #921
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    I wonder if there's still a government next week.
    Greece shows us that there is a kind of politician worse than the ones that break their election promises; the ones that keep their election promises.

  22. #922
    Was there one last week?
    Hope is the denial of reality

  23. #923
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    touché
    Greece shows us that there is a kind of politician worse than the ones that break their election promises; the ones that keep their election promises.

  24. #924
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    http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86656 interesting read on the situation in the air on Brexit day.
    Greece shows us that there is a kind of politician worse than the ones that break their election promises; the ones that keep their election promises.

  25. #925
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hazir View Post
    http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86656 interesting read on the situation in the air on Brexit day.
    Hoo, boy. How does this Chinese curse go? Oh, yes. "May you live in interesting times."
    But what is not fully appreciated is that many (if not all) of the UK bilateral agreements will have to be changed. As it stands, they are negotiated and agreed in conformity with EU law, specifically Regulation (EC) No 847/2004, which requires them to include specified EU provisions.

    By a bizarre stroke of fate, the inclusion of these provisions – and in particular the conditions which a UK airline must meet in order to come within the terms of the agreement – means that, when the UK leaves the EU, the agreements can no longer be applied. In each case, there are grounds for either party to withdraw from the agreements.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  26. #926
    Quote Originally Posted by Hazir View Post
    http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86656 interesting read on the situation in the air on Brexit day.
    As interesting as any far fetched dystopian fantasy. Based on entirely false pretences with no bearing on reality though as the actual experts so glibly dismissed know.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  27. #927
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    As interesting as any far fetched dystopian fantasy. Based on entirely false pretences with no bearing on reality though as the actual experts so glibly dismissed know.
    How are those isotopes coming along, Rand?
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  28. #928
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    As interesting as any far fetched dystopian fantasy. Based on entirely false pretences with no bearing on reality though as the actual experts so glibly dismissed know.
    Fun part is that this all is written by a Brexiteer
    Greece shows us that there is a kind of politician worse than the ones that break their election promises; the ones that keep their election promises.

  29. #929
    If this business with the secret reports weren't so horrifying it would be frickin' hilarious. Jesus fucking Christ, are there no limits to these ministers' incompetence and dishonesty?
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  30. #930
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    If this business with the secret reports weren't so horrifying it would be frickin' hilarious. Jesus fucking Christ, are there no limits to these ministers' incompetence and dishonesty?
    They are worse than Trump. At least with him there are people around him capable of stopping him from doing too much harm.

    The problem is that this bunch of public school idiots have been taught that being capable of shooting off witty one liners means that you are intelligent and born to rule. Doubly so if you throw in some latin every now and then. The reality is that they know nothing, understand nothing and can't achieve anything if you ask them to build up something in stead of haughtily telling others what is wrong with their real life efforts.

    The reason why Brexit is going to end in tears is that they simply are a bunch of incompetents that can't put a single idea together between the lot of them that doesn't consist of lies and plattitudes without any relevance to the task at hand.

    Randy here is a tragic example of the people who fell for the game of smoke and mirrors they played; he voted for a political revolution that will bring him down economically and financially and still he keeps believing the lies about Brexit not being a total disaster if there isn't an agreement on the exit conditions.
    Greece shows us that there is a kind of politician worse than the ones that break their election promises; the ones that keep their election promises.

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