Brexit Begins

[RandBlade]

Who says anything about giving up part of the Union? Though if you want to take the Scots off our hands then please by all means be our guest.

The principles of devolution long predate Brexit. But I'm amazed you'd be willing to consider a part of the UK having completely free and unconditional access to the Single Market, regardless of how trade talks end up. Seems like a wonderful backdoor for us to have as policing any customs between Great Britain and Northern Ireland if applicable would be our job not yours and we would look to make that as frictionless as possible so if our companies can simply transfer stock to NI then get free access to the Single Market without being part of it then win/win.

I'd think you'd be mad to agree to that but it seems to be your own idea. Are you guys crazy?

[Timbuk2]

Actually, net migration from the EU has shifted significantly.

Another graphic from the same article as yours is much more telling of the situation today, not 2016.




Unsurprisingly, less EU citizens are now choosing to come here, and more of those that are here are choosing to leave.

[RandBlade]

That's actually not very telling as you make a couple of logic flaws.

1: The 2015 and 2016 figures had seen a very dramatic and unlikely to be sustained surge after the removal of restrictions on Romania and Bulgaria. The 2016 figures smashed all records. A reversion to mean effect was already very likely after that.
2: All those who arrived in 2016 are either still here or if they've left have been more than replaced by the ADDITIONAL quarter of a million net who've arrived on top of those who've arrived last year.
3: The current net migration is not only more than double our official target it is also well above the long term trend. See this additional graphic from the article, the net figures are well above almost every year since records began except in the immediate aftermaths of accession nations being allowed to migrate freely which has always caused a spike.



What you're doing is the equivalent of saying that Manchester United performed badly in the 2007-08 season because despite winning the Premier League they only gained 87 points down on the 89 points they got in the previous season in 2006-07 ... and ignoring the fact that Manchester United won the Premier League with 87 points that season and were champions. EDIT: Or that Chelsea performed badly in 2005-06 as they "only" got 91 points down on the 95 they'd got in 2004-05, again ignoring the fact they'd won the league and that 91 points was itself on its own a championship winning tally that won them the league. I don't think either club thought they'd done badly be retaining the league title even if it was done with fewer points than the year before, they still won and by an incredible tally.

[Hazir]

Actually, net migration from the EU has shifted significantly.

Another graphic from the same article as yours is much more telling of the situation today, not 2016.




Unsurprisingly, less EU citizens are now choosing to come here, and more of those that are here are choosing to leave.

And how many of these people are students anyway?

[Timbuk2]

*shrugs* not sure of the breakdown.

Anecdotally, my other half is an area HR director for a hotel chain. For the first time in this position for many years she has vacancies perpetually unfilled across the chain, primarily in the minimum-wage bracket, which is normally taken up by Eastern Europeans. Recruitment has been becoming increasingly difficult.

Recruitment fairs she attends regularly are becoming more and more sparse in attendance - conversations with other managers at these fairs all tell a similar story in difficulty in filling positions. Hospitality for one is suffering significantly, at least in London. Other industries with heavy immigrant workforces would reflect this too.

So far, so expected.

[RandBlade]

Is that a problem?

Importing minimum wage workers is not economically justifiable for the nation, importing skilled workers is. If we're facing a shortage of skilled people then that is a problem, if we're facing a shortage of hospitality workers then anyone whether born in this country or overseas can do that job with training. Maybe London-based hospitality needs to increase their wages off the minimum to attract workers. That's basic supply and demand and happens when the nation has full employment which we do at the moment especially around London.

Becoming more efficient and increasing wages will address too key issues for our economy, not importing more baristas.

[Aimless]

You are also facing a shortage of skilled people, see links in previous pages. The claim that a shortage of "low"-skilled workers is not a problem is simply false.

Re migration trends you'll have to look at contribution to net migration of students as well as citizens from Romania and Bulgaria.

[Hazir]

Is that a problem?

Importing minimum wage workers is not economically justifiable for the nation, importing skilled workers is. If we're facing a shortage of skilled people then that is a problem, if we're facing a shortage of hospitality workers then anyone whether born in this country or overseas can do that job with training. Maybe London-based hospitality needs to increase their wages off the minimum to attract workers. That's basic supply and demand and happens when the nation has full employment which we do at the moment especially around London.

Becoming more efficient and increasing wages will address too key issues for our economy, not importing more baristas.

And Randblade knows best of course; after all those highly skilled workers are perfectly able to pour their own coffees and cook their own meals. If they're not too whiny they could even haul their own furniture on the move in. Because those high skilled workers don't care about the environment in which they have to do their jobs. God forbids they actually want to live somewhere that's not forcing them to do all their chores themselves.

[RandBlade]

You are also facing a shortage of skilled people, see links in previous pages. The claim that a shortage of "low"-skilled workers is not a problem is simply false.

Re migration trends you'll have to look at contribution to net migration of students as well as citizens from Romania and Bulgaria.

I never said it is not a problem, but it is a good problem to have if we are approaching full employment. It is simple supply and demand that there will always continue to expand new demand infinitely if it is permitted - our continuous import of low-skilled and low-value labour has contributed to our poor efficiency and wage growth despite having record employment levels. If employment is full then companies need to raise wages to attract more candidates, that is a good thing ultimately.

It is a mirage to believe that new migrants "take our jobs" which is the rallying cry of the ignorant, but it is also a mirage to believe that new migrants are needed to "fill our jobs" which is equally just as ludicrous and pathetically absurd. There is no finite supply of jobs, new people bring with them new demand and thus create new jobs. If you infinitely supply low-skilled, low-wage people then there will expand demand for it in our current employment situations.

Hazir coffee is a perfect example of why our efficiency stats are so poor. No high skilled workers don't need to become their own baristas, if you can't find a barista then the simple alternative can be to get a machine to do it. Coffee machines nowadays can make very good cappucinos, lattes etc and not just instant crap. In older days productivity improved by replacing low-skilled workers with machines. In recent years we've been replacing machines with low-skilled workers.

[Aimless]

The ONS data show that Romanian & Bulgarian citizens had small contribution on the decline in net migration that was not found to be statistically significant. Fewer EU8 & EU15 citizens are moving to the UK, and more are leaving.

[Khendraja'aro]

I never said it is not a problem, but it is a good problem to have if we are approaching full employment. It is simple supply and demand that there will always continue to expand new demand infinitely if it is permitted - our continuous import of low-skilled and low-value labour has contributed to our poor efficiency and wage growth despite having record employment levels. If employment is full then companies need to raise wages to attract more candidates, that is a good thing ultimately.

God save us from overly simplistic "The Free Market Fixeth All!" believers. Next up: He'll tell us that trickle-down actually works.

Don't you guys have a little problem with filling vacancies in the medical areas?

Also: The need to raise wages also leads to the need to raise prices. Which, coupled with the weakness of the pound, will really do wonders for your economy...

[Aimless]

The labor shortage will be solved by shrinking the economy and making people move. It's a cunning plan.

[RandBlade]

God save us from overly simplistic "The Free Market Fixeth All!" believers. Next up: He'll tell us that trickle-down actually works.

Don't you guys have a little problem with filling vacancies in the medical areas?

Also: The need to raise wages also leads to the need to raise prices. Which, coupled with the weakness of the pound, will really do wonders for your economy...

Inflation is within target* at the moment despite interest rates being on the floor** and forecast to fall back down.

* 2% +/- 1%, outside that range is where the Governor the Bank of England has to write a letter to explain why inflation is at the level it is and what's being done about it if anything.
** 0.5% base rate is massively below what it should be long-term, it was ludicrously dropped temporarily to 0.25% temporarily.

The labor shortage will be solved by shrinking the economy and making people move. It's a cunning plan.

What labour shortage? Our labour pool and employment figures have never been higher.

We have net 600k more population due to migration than we did two years ago. Just how much more would we need to solve a "labour shortage"? If we were talking about low or negative net migration you may have a point but we don't just have the third of a million extra population we gained last year but on top of that we have a further quarter of a million extra as well. Can you put a figure on what is required in your eyes to end a so-called labour shortage?

Looks like the Aviation issue is going to be dealt with by staying in EASA. Seems sensible, I see no good reason to leave it. Maybe we should stay in Euroatom as well. Though AFAIK Euroatom lacks any non-EU members while there are a number of non-EU members of EASA.

[RandBlade]

Incidentally what shortage of medics? We have the highest number of doctors and nurses etc in our history, more than ever before. Just how much more would we need in your eyes?

But I'll say what there is a shortage of in London that's been all over the media - affordable housing. How much is a flat in London going for now? More minimum wage employees will also need a home to live in and how many hours at minimum wage does it take to pay for accommodation currently? If London wages rise off the minimum for hospitality employees that may cause a slight amount of inflation but it will also mean those employees can afford to live and get a home etc as those prices are rising due to increased demand whether wages go up or not.

[Khendraja'aro]

Yeah, called it: Rand is believing in overly simplistic mechanisms.

[RandBlade]

Bollocks you are. You believe that you can fix Labour shortages by importing more people like there's a fixed amount of jobs. The economy is more complicated than that.

[RandBlade]

Aimless are you not going to answer how much more than the 600k net migration of the last two years we need in your eyes to address this mythical "labour shortage" of which you speak?

Or any of you guys intending to answer the point about housing?

[Khendraja'aro]

The economy is more complicated than that.

That's a pretty funny statement coming from someone who just told us that "just raise the wages" will magically fix all the problems.

[RandBlade]

I didn't say it will magically fix anything. I said it is Supply and Demand that wages may have to go up as we approach full employment levels which is ultimately a good thing so long as it can be underpinned with more efficiency.

You bemoan having to maybe pay a few extra pennies on your soya decaff cappuccino or whatever other drink you're expecting to get in London served to you by somebody who is meant to live on Minimum Wage. Sorry but given the way house prices have gone in that city expecting someone to work for minimum wage is just not reasonable. The minimum is set for the entire nation and areas like where I live in the North West that have higher unemployment and house prices upto 80% lower than in London then it is more reasonable. One size does not fit all though.

[Aimless]

Aimless are you not going to answer how much more than the 600k net migration of the last two years we need in your eyes to address this mythical "labour shortage" of which you speak?

It's a stupid question. Many businesses and the recruiters they hire are finding difficulties filling positions. The NHS has indicated that it has seen similarly worrying developments. Ultimately, the people who can tell you whether or not they're experiencing any form of shortage of labor are those who are looking to employ people. Your argument about the UK having more doctors and nurses than ever before is frankly a ridiculous one. Demand for healthcare has risen steadily with the increasing size of the population and especially of the elderly population, to mention just two important causes. Even if I were to concede your claim about absolute numbers being at a "record high", it says nothing about the real demand.

Or any of you guys intending to answer the point about housing?

What point about housing? Do you sincerely believe that curbing migration slightly is the answer to London's increasingly severe shortage of housing--affordable or otherwise--over the past couple of decades?

[Khendraja'aro]

IYou bemoan having to maybe pay a few extra pennies on your soya decaff cappuccino or whatever other drink you're expecting to get in London served to you by somebody who is meant to live on Minimum Wage.

A few pennies here, a few pennies there and pretty soon we're talking real money.

And I'm not "bemoaning" anything. I'm just ridiculing your notion that raising wages will only have positive effects. Particularly in an area where the margins are already slim.

[RandBlade]

It's a stupid question. Many businesses and the recruiters they hire are finding difficulties filling positions.

It's not a stupid question unless your remark was itself stupid, it follows inevitably from your stupid claim. No shit that recruiters are struggling, that is because the employment ratio has rarely been higher than it is now. But despite that and despite rampant rising house price and other inflation, wages and efficiency ratios are not rising. Importing ever more minimum wage people won't address any problem we have, it will further escalate the inaffordable house prices while further deflating wages because you've deliberately sought people for the minimum.

The NHS has indicated that it has seen similarly worrying developments. Ultimately, the people who can tell you whether or not they're experiencing any form of shortage of labor are those who are looking to employ people. Your argument about the UK having more doctors and nurses than ever before is frankly a ridiculous one. Demand for healthcare has risen steadily with the increasing size of the population and especially of the elderly population, to mention just two important causes. Even if I were to concede your claim about absolute numbers being at a "record high", it says nothing about the real demand.

Gee here we get to my own point! Yes demand rises when the population rises. Well done for realising the blindingly obvious point I was making! Increasing the "supply of workers" does nothing to address shortages because those extra people have their own demands, just as the ludicrous notion of "they're taking our jobs" is idiotic, so is suggesting that we can solve shortages miraculously by bringing more people in specifically for the minimum wage because those extra people will themselves need doctors, nurses, homes etc

What point about housing? Do you sincerely believe that curbing migration slightly is the answer to London's increasingly severe shortage of housing--affordable or otherwise--over the past couple of decades?

I sincerely believe that deliberately importing more unskilled minimum wage people into an area to do unnecessary jobs that could be done by machines into an area with chronic shortages of housing will make the problem worse yes. If we were talking affluent people, skilled people, entrepreneurs, doctors, nurses or people with skills or efficiencies we actually need then maybe the extra demand for housing would be counteracted by our improved efficiencies and production.

To deliberately deflate our efficiencies by deliberately seeking out more unskilled people to avoid investing in technology while needing to find housing etc for them, while incidentally increasing demand for healthcare etc that they're not paying for because minimum wage people don't pay taxes net is not making anything better.

A few pennies here, a few pennies there and pretty soon we're talking real money.

Indeed, while for London house prices its a few hundred thousand pounds here, a few hundred thousand pounds there ...

And I'm not "bemoaning" anything. I'm just ridiculing your notion that raising wages will only have positive effects. Particularly in an area where the margins are already slim.

Where did I say it would only have positive effects? If you want to make your own straw men up then don't attack me for them.

[Khendraja'aro]

You have been VERY glib when it comes to us pointing out the pitfalls with your "proposals" and you always scoff when we say: "It's not that easy!"

Pardon me for not taking your credentials seriously. Just now you equated: "Large (absolute) number of medical workers" with "Demand for medical workers". Those are NOT the same thing.

You also just admitted that you do indeed have shortages. Good going, dude.

Moron.

By this point I'm looking forward to you going bankrupt. Just so you get a taste of your own medicine.

[Aimless]

It's not a stupid question unless your remark was itself stupid, it follows inevitably from your stupid claim.

You're incorrect. You cannot point to X number of migrants and say "that SHOULD be enough".

No shit that recruiters are struggling, that is because the employment ratio has rarely been higher than it is now.

Employers and recruiters, for both highly skilled, reasonably skilled and unskilled positions, have identified difficulties with recruiting people from the EU as an important cause. Your handwaving is not particularly compelling in light of that.

But despite that and despite rampant rising house price and other inflation, wages and efficiency ratios are not rising.

Wages & value of compensation packages are absolutely rising, in highly skilled jobs, a consequence of recruiters having difficulties attracting people from the EU post-referendum.

Importing ever more minimum wage people won't address any problem we have, it will further escalate the inaffordable house prices while further deflating wages because you've deliberately sought people for the minimum.

Misses the point in addition to being incorrect. The shortage is not only seen among unskilled or low-skilled minimum-wage labourers. Moreover, their impact on housing costs are likely minimal when compared to impact of planning policies, land cost, govt. policies wrt social housing, etc. Their impact on demand is also low in comparison to the impact of natural population growth. Low- & unskilled migrant labourers from the EU are more likely to be seasonal workers staying in the UK for shorter periods of time in crowded accommodations.

Gee here we get to my own point! Yes demand rises when the population rises. Well done for realising the blindingly obvious point I was making! Increasing the "supply of workers" does nothing to address shortages because those extra people have their own demands

I'm sorry but your point is uninformed and blinding only in its dazzling stupidity. Migrants from the EU tend to be young, reasonably healthy, and productive--and they use the NHS to a lesser extent than the native population. I said

and especially of the elderly population, to mention just two important causes

The consequences of the chronic mismanagement of the NHS by successive Tory governments cannot be laid at the feet of non-British EU citizens or their employers.

just as the ludicrous notion of "they're taking our jobs" is idiotic, so is suggesting that we can solve shortages miraculously by bringing more people in specifically for the minimum wage because those extra people will themselves need doctors, nurses, homes etc

They will need fewer doctors and nurses and homes than for example older Brits, and since we're not only talking about minimum-wage low-skilled workers this is less relevant to the discussion.

I sincerely believe that deliberately importing more unskilled minimum wage people into an area to do unnecessary jobs that could be done by machines into an area with chronic shortages of housing will make the problem worse yes.

Their impact on the housing problem is minimal while their importance to many sectors of the economy is significant, even when factoring in automation. This is true for example for seasonal agricultural work outside London. It's true for seasonal work in the hospitality industry where you still need human hands for making beds, cleaning rooms, offering personal service to confused tourists from all over the world etc. It's true for the tens of thousands of workers in the construction sector, workers who've helped the UK meet some of the demand for new housing at a lower cost than it would've had to pay otherwise.

If we were talking affluent people, skilled people, entrepreneurs, doctors, nurses or people with skills or efficiencies we actually need then maybe the extra demand for housing would be counteracted by our improved efficiencies and production.

We are talking about those groups as well.

To deliberately deflate our efficiencies by deliberately seeking out more unskilled people to avoid investing in technology while needing to find housing etc for them, while incidentally increasing demand for healthcare etc that they're not paying for because minimum wage people don't pay taxes net is not making anything better.

Minimum-wage labourers from the EU generally do not use these services to the same extent as British-born citizens. They also enable businesses to thrive, and those businesses--presumably--pay taxes.

If you want to make your own straw men up then don't attack me for them.

Oh wow. If you weren't already a parody of yourself, you'd be one now.

[RandBlade]

You're incorrect. You cannot point to X number of migrants and say "that SHOULD be enough".

I know that, do you? That was my own point.

There will never be enough as demand is ultimately infinite.

Employers and recruiters, for both highly skilled, reasonably skilled and unskilled positions, have identified difficulties with recruiting people from the EU as an important cause. Your handwaving is not particularly compelling in light of that.

So we should address that. I never said we shouldn't. I just couldn't care less about struggling to recruit people on minimum wage into one of the most popular and expensive cities to live on in the globe.

Let's not forget either that net migration was massively high in the last 12 months, up dramatically on average and one of the highest net figures since records began.

Wages & value of compensation packages are absolutely rising, in highly skilled jobs, a consequence of recruiters having difficulties attracting people from the EU post-referendum.

[Citation Needed]

By what percentage as despite that average wages are actually rising below inflation currently.

Misses the point in addition to being incorrect. The shortage is not only seen among unskilled or low-skilled minimum-wage labourers. Moreover, their impact on housing costs are likely minimal when compared to impact of planning policies, land cost, govt. policies wrt social housing, etc. Their impact on demand is also low in comparison to the impact of natural population growth. Low- & unskilled migrant labourers from the EU are more likely to be seasonal workers staying in the UK for shorter periods of time in crowded accommodations.

Again there is no shortage, we have record numbers of employees and a record employment ratio. We are maybe not being efficient but we do not have a shortage.

Also you're simply incorrect in your claims. We haven't gone from 1% of the UK's population to 6% of the UK's population being being EU citizens within less than a generation because of "seasonal workers".

I'm sorry but your point is uninformed and blinding only in its dazzling stupidity. Migrants from the EU tend to be young, reasonably healthy, and productive--and they use the NHS to a lesser extent than the native population. I said

The consequences of the chronic mismanagement of the NHS by successive Tory governments cannot be laid at the feet of non-British EU citizens or their employers.

So productive that what we are specifically only discussing people on minimum wage? You keep trying to bring skilled people into this despite it being completely off topic.

They will need fewer doctors and nurses and homes than for example older Brits, and since we're not only talking about minimum-wage low-skilled workers this is less relevant to the discussion.

We are talking about minimum-wage lowe-skilled workers. Specifically because that is what Tim brought up.

*shrugs* not sure of the breakdown.

Anecdotally, my other half is an area HR director for a hotel chain. For the first time in this position for many years she has vacancies perpetually unfilled across the chain, primarily in the minimum-wage bracket, which is normally taken up by Eastern Europeans. Recruitment has been becoming increasingly difficult.

Recruitment fairs she attends regularly are becoming more and more sparse in attendance - conversations with other managers at these fairs all tell a similar story in difficulty in filling positions. Hospitality for one is suffering significantly, at least in London. Other industries with heavy immigrant workforces would reflect this too.

So far, so expected.

Their impact on the housing problem is minimal while their importance to many sectors of the economy is significant, even when factoring in automation. This is true for example for seasonal agricultural work outside London. It's true for seasonal work in the hospitality industry where you still need human hands for making beds, cleaning rooms, offering personal service to confused tourists from all over the world etc. It's true for the tens of thousands of workers in the construction sector, workers who've helped the UK meet some of the demand for new housing at a lower cost than it would've had to pay otherwise.

Not talking about seasonal wrokers but [citation needed] for the idea that bringing more minimum wage people into a crowded city has a minimal impact.

We are talking about those groups as well.

No we're not.

Minimum-wage labourers from the EU generally do not use these services to the same extent as British-born citizens. They also enable businesses to thrive, and those businesses--presumably--pay taxes.

Minimum wage labourers don't need obstetricians or midwives?

Oh wow. If you weren't already a parody of yourself, you'd be one now.

Pot. Kettle.

[Hazir]

Whatever Randy; are you happy with your government finally understanding who's calling the shots in the article 50 talks? You must be really impressed by the way Ireland is taking back control.

[gogobongopop]

Incoming decision on NI.

Sounds like NI might remain in the SM and CU.

Which would surely mean the rest of the UK would to. Surely? I can't imagine Wales and Scotland being happy if we didn't.

[RandBlade]

No way the DUP will agree to that and without the DUP May doesn't have a Parliamentary majority.

Also no way the SNP would be willing to accept that for NI and not for Scotland.

[Khendraja'aro]

Incoming decision on NI.

Sounds like NI might remain in the SM and CU.

Which would surely mean the rest of the UK would to. Surely? I can't imagine Wales and Scotland being happy if we didn't.

London City also won't be happy with that.

[Aimless]

Incoming decision on NI.

Sounds like NI might remain in the SM and CU.

Which would surely mean the rest of the UK would to. Surely? I can't imagine Wales and Scotland being happy if we didn't.

Twitter Link

Twitter Link

Twitter Link

Rumours from people present outside the meeting that DUP may have prevented a deal today at the last moment.