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Thread: Brexit Begins

  1. #1471
    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    If the report is genuine I really don't get what on Earth Davis is thinking there. It makes no sense whatsoever. Of course the EU is eminently within its rights to prepare for a No Deal scenario and ... seriously WTF!?
    The real reason for the fuss is that the EU is proceeding as if the UK will be a "third country". This worries businesses and leads to uncertainty, which puts British firms at a disadvantage today, eg. when trying to secure various contracts in other EU states.

    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    That's... not very informative.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  2. #1472
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  3. #1473
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    You did read a) on the reasons for that (which kind of surprised no one) and b) also that this is only 10% of your total economy?

    There's so much inane idiocy in your crowing about this, it's hard to fathom.

    "Oh, look, this sector is doing just fine!" - "Yeah, so is China's, USA's and Europe's. Good job on doing fine when everyone else also does fine."

    Also, you realize that you're still IN the EU, so you can actually profit from the upswing?
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  4. #1474
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    A) No I didn't as they weren't there when I provided the link. The article at the time I wrote the link simply had three lines and said that Manufacturing Output was at a 10 year high. The extra bits of good news like the fact that our trade deficit has narrowed [again] or that this is the strongest sustained growth since 1997 weren't there at the time I wrote it.

    B) Yes I get that it's only 10% of our total economy, but its an important 10% that helps underpin much of the rest (a lot of service jobs are supported by those who work in manufacturing jobs for instance).

    C) Our trade deficit narrowing is not a simple result of a rising tide raising all boats.

    D) It's been an important objective for years to try to rebalance the economy to include more manufacturing and not just services. Our best growth in 20 years at a time Brexit was supposed to crush growth is great news.

    E) I said when the pound fell this would happen and I was basically called insane. I was right.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  5. #1475
    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    Thank God for climate change but shame about the construction.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  6. #1476
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    The most necessary (for us as a nation) element of construction was the only good part of those figures.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  7. #1477
    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    The most necessary (for us as a nation) element of construction was the only good part of those figures.
    ... talk about damning with faint praise while wearing rose-colored glasses
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  8. #1478
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Indeed. Article pontificates on what we already know - that there will be job losses, confirms that Brexit will be bad for financial services.

    As per the Rand Corporation study, it is now only a question of how bad.

    Next round of the talks will determine that question.
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    It's actually the original French billion, which is bi-million, which is a million to the power of 2. We adopted the word, and then they changed it, presumably as revenge for Crecy and Agincourt, and then the treasonous Americans adopted the new French usage and spread it all over the world. And now we have to use it.

    And that's Why I'm Voting Leave.

  9. #1479
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Yes but nowhere near as bad as initially forecast/feared.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  10. #1480
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Yes but nowhere near as bad as initially forecast/feared.
    Rand, honest question: What exactly do you think he actually can say but this?

    When, in the history of the world, has a spokesman for an organization ever said: "It will be even worse for our organization!"?

    Without facing immediately being shitcanned or having to leave the job anyway, that is.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  11. #1481
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    You can use meaningful but polite terminology: "challenging times" etc

    What you don't do is put numbers on it, unless you now have reason to believe those numbers are now accurate. Pre-referendum forecasts of 75k job losses are now revised down to 5-13k (out of 1.1 million).

    The last 18 months have given reason to change that, far from investment stalling as forecast mistakenly pre-referendum its actually been going ahead nicely.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  12. #1482
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Again: Brexit has not happened yet and you haven't even begun to talk about Phase 2.

    If Phase 2 does not take off you'll have problems. And those forecasts will be revised again. Because then everyone will take out their contingency plan ASAP.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  13. #1483
    ======== Timbuk2's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    You can use meaningful but polite terminology: "challenging times" etc

    What you don't do is put numbers on it, unless you now have reason to believe those numbers are now accurate. Pre-referendum forecasts of 75k job losses are now revised down to 5-13k (out of 1.1 million).

    The last 18 months have given reason to change that, far from investment stalling as forecast mistakenly pre-referendum its actually been going ahead nicely.
    Aye, and the FTSE has broken records with a new high last friday. UK investments have never been better.

    This is an aside to Brexit however. This high is as a result of various cycles coinciding; stable economic growth in China, steady growth in the UK, low inflationary pressures and long-term forecasts for low interest rates.

    Doom mongering from both sides of the Brexit debate will continue to speculate wildly, as they have from the moment the result was confirmed. The real poison in the pudding will be the results several years down the line from whatever decisions take place in this next phase of talks.

    The only thing we can say with limited confidence at this stage is that the UK will be worse off, whatever is agreed in the next phase.
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    It's actually the original French billion, which is bi-million, which is a million to the power of 2. We adopted the word, and then they changed it, presumably as revenge for Crecy and Agincourt, and then the treasonous Americans adopted the new French usage and spread it all over the world. And now we have to use it.

    And that's Why I'm Voting Leave.

  14. #1484
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    I obviously don't agree with your "limited confidence" statement. The ambition is for the UK to take up opportunities and be better off.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  15. #1485
    ======== Timbuk2's Avatar
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    *shrugs* I'll take the Rand Corporation's detailed sector analyses and forecasts over your opinion.

    But as always, and as you like to say, we'll see.

    I obviously want things to work out for the better.
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    It's actually the original French billion, which is bi-million, which is a million to the power of 2. We adopted the word, and then they changed it, presumably as revenge for Crecy and Agincourt, and then the treasonous Americans adopted the new French usage and spread it all over the world. And now we have to use it.

    And that's Why I'm Voting Leave.

  16. #1486
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Yeah we will see

    You're more than welcome to take whichever one you want, I have no intention of making you adopt my opinion
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  17. #1487
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    https://www.theguardian.com/society/...-of-a-war-zone

    Yeah, Brexit will totally solve that problem!

    Also, Carillion.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  18. #1488
    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Khendraja'aro View Post
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/...-of-a-war-zone

    Yeah, Brexit will totally solve that problem!
    I think the people of the UK have had quite enough of nurses.

    In EU news, I noticed last night that my most often used airline had removed the AmEx surcharge. Very welcome change. Was hilarious to see May trying to take credit for the changes to credit card payment rules.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  19. #1489
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Then again, there's also the line of thinking that the NHS problems are exactly what May and their ilk want.

    Chomsky put it quite nicely: "That’s the standard technique of privatization: defund, make sure things don’t work, people get angry, you hand it over to private capital."
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  20. #1490
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Khendraja'aro View Post
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/...-of-a-war-zone

    Yeah, Brexit will totally solve that problem!

    Also, Carillion.
    Brexit's not remotely related to that.
    Quote Originally Posted by Khendraja'aro View Post
    Then again, there's also the line of thinking that the NHS problems are exactly what May and their ilk want.

    Chomsky put it quite nicely: "That’s the standard technique of privatization: defund, make sure things don’t work, people get angry, you hand it over to private capital."
    Except that funding for the NHS is at record levels, has been increased every year in real terms, been ringfenced from any cuts and in both 2010 and 2015 the Tories pledged more funds for the NHS than any other major party as we made that our priority.

    Oh and the NHS isn't at such a crisis that its felt the need not to send thousands of doctors to foreign skiing conferences at this time of year.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  21. #1491
    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Brexit's not remotely related to that.
    Except that funding for the NHS is at record levels, has been increased every year in real terms, been ringfenced from any cuts and in both 2010 and 2015 the Tories pledged more funds for the NHS than any other major party as we made that our priority.

    Oh and the NHS isn't at such a crisis that its felt the need not to send thousands of doctors to foreign skiing conferences at this time of year.
    shortage of nurses and beds is a greater problem atm than shortage of doctors in unspecified specialties and "record levels" is a meaningless standard given that funding hasn't kept pace with the growing needs of an aging population and increasingly expensive healthcare. Brexit is and will be important to this crisis, firstly because of the reduction in funds that can be made available for the NHS, and secondly because of the importance of EU citizens to NHS staffing.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  22. #1492
    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    As for the claim about "thousands" of doctors going skiing for a few days this winter, while it doesn't surprise me that you get your news from the likes of Guido Fawkes, the numbers I've seen so far don't even add up to 2,000 docs, and the detailed info doesn't suggest that they are in such critical positions that they're necessary to avert a crisis.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  23. #1493
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    As for the claim about "thousands" of doctors going skiing for a few days this winter, while it doesn't surprise me that you get your news from the likes of Guido Fawkes, the numbers I've seen so far don't even add up to 2,000 docs, and the detailed info doesn't suggest that they are in such critical positions that they're necessary to avert a crisis.
    Guido Fawkes is a source yes, he breaks interesting stories and is quite reliable.

    For instance this is how he's reported your Amex story.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  24. #1494
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Jesus Christ. I think we'll call you the Brexit Ostrich from now on.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  25. #1495
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    While you're the Brexit Boy who Cried Wolf.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  26. #1496
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    What you moron simply don't get: You're NOT fine. Don't keep acting as if everything will work out well.

    That's what pretty much anyone here tells you and you are not listening because you have stuck your head in the sand: Brexit will HURT you and it's a crapshoot on whether you'll be better off or not afterwards.

    Smart money is on "not", by the way.

    Why on earth do we even keep on telling you this? You're fiddling while your house burns down. Do you honestly think this INEPT government of yours will manage this crisis fine? How?

    You've got a bunch of lunatics running the asylum and you still keep on dreaming.

    Fine. Wake me in one year when you are just about to crash out of the EU. Then we'll see just what your contry is still worth (hint: Nothing).
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  27. #1497
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Just because you call me a moron and call it a crisis doesn't make it so. There is no macroeconomic crisis.

    If this is what you call a crisis, I wonder what you'd call an actual downturn or recession?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  28. #1498
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    I think it goes more than a bit too far to say that the UK would be 'worthless' if it crashes out of the EU. However there is no doubt in my mind that crashing out of the EU is going to hurt the UK a lot more than it's going to hurt the EU. The EU will have to deal with the disruptions caused by such an event, but by and large will be doing so in a framework that stands regardless of the UK leaving. The UK on the other hand will be dealing with a situation in which no framework exists any longer for its commercial relations with the outside world. The scariest part of Brexit is that this is something that Brexiteers don't seem to get; not the hard Brexiteers, but also not the soft Brexiteers. When the UK becomes a 'third country' the fact that it departs from the same point as the rest of the EU isn't worth a brass farthing if the UK has no agreement with the EU on the continued recognition of rules that in essence from then on will be British rules rather than EU rules. Without understanding of what Brexit, becoming a third country, really means, the UK will not be able to get a new relationship with the EU.

    That Randblade doesn't get that should be no surprise to anyone, but that there are no people in the British government who get that is really scary.
    Greece shows us that there is a kind of politician worse than the ones that break their election promises; the ones that keep their election promises.

  29. #1499
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    What makes you think I don't get it? I've said all along we will and should get a deal.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  30. #1500
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    Well, there you have your answer. There is nothing especially easy or certain about a deal being reached. It may very well turn out to be impossible for us to give you a deal you will accept. And unlike what you think; the fact that we are part of the same system today doesn't make things easier, but significantly more complicated.
    Greece shows us that there is a kind of politician worse than the ones that break their election promises; the ones that keep their election promises.

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