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Thread: Brexit Begins

  1. #1501
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Never said it was easy but if there's one thing the EU knows how to do well it is fudge where necessary to keep the show on the road. That's why all the predictions of the Eurozone collapsing (something I've never predicted) never come true.

    Only the extremists on both sides don't want a deal. Mark my words one will be agreed.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  2. #1502
    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    The Eurozone crisis had much more room for flexible political solutions and what you call "fudging" than the Brexit & future relationship negotiations will have. Brits have difficulties understanding the importance of laws and agreements to the EU's functioning, but as we've seen at every stage of the Brexit process so far, the EU's reality-based approach is liable to overcome sloppy & wishful British fudging.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  3. #1503
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    What I've seen im every stage of the Brexit negotiations so far is EXACTLY THE SAME as the Eurozone issues. A lot of tough talk and signs things will collapse then an 11th hour agreement.

    Plus ca change.

    It's clear both sides want a deal. A deal will be reached. Expect the same this year prior to a deal being announced late this year. A deal on transitional arrangements may come sooner.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  4. #1504
    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    Every single time the threat of collapse has arisen from the incompetence, ignorance and lack of good faith on the part of the British negotiators, and the bullets have only been dodged because the same idiots have realized, at the least minute, that they must accept reality. I believe it's more likely than not that a deal will be reached, and I'm convinced such a deal will follow a long series of concessions to reality on the part of the UK. Your politicians are at least as skilled as you are at moving the goalposts so it's possible this will pass unnoticed.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  5. #1505
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    I don't see how any of what you wrote contradicts any of what I wrote.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  6. #1506
    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    Because it hasn't involved any significant fudging on the EU's part and, if fudging will be required, the likelihood of a deal
    will go down.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  7. #1507
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    I didn't say there'd be significant fudging, I said they're good at fudging. Its a compliment and different meaning.

    Case in point the last minute wobble over the Irish border and the complaint by the DUP. Fudge was to insert another line to smooth over the DUP, that didn't actually change anything but left everyone standing on what previously seemed to be irreconcilable and contradictory positions able to claim they got what they wanted. It wasn't a significant fudge but it was a good one.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  8. #1508
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    The only fudging I see is on the British side; where your government accepted a binding agreement that pretty much forces you to either give NI a special status in the UK or turn the UK into a rule taker full stop. It's not exactly a fudge to accept an offer of tens of billions of euros or continued ECJ supervision over the uninterrupted rights of or our citizens for years after you leave the EU.
    Greece shows us that there is a kind of politician worse than the ones that break their election promises; the ones that keep their election promises.

  9. #1509
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    I take my "Ostrich" name back and will revert to calling Rand "Comical Ali".
    When the stars threw down their spears
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  10. #1510
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    I'm the one grounded in reality not your fictional dystopian nightmare.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  11. #1511
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    I think Khen is living in his own fantasy parallel universe where all the projections of doom and gloom are actually coming true.

    Interesting article in the Financial Times: https://www.ft.com/content/2ec41698-...9-bbdefa4f210b
    Mark Carney’s intervention during the Brexit campaign, when the Bank of England governor warned that Britain’s exit from the EU could spark a recession, is well known. The bank’s economic forecasts post-referendum have received less attention.

    In August 2016, the bank produced updated forecasts. Exports in 2017 would be down 0.5 per cent, despite the strong boost they had received from the devaluation of sterling. Looking at the year-on-year figures for the third quarter, in practice they are up 8.3 per cent. Over the same period business investment in 2017 would be down 2 per cent. Yet, in the most recent Office for National Statistics figures, it is up 1.7 per cent. Housing investment would be down 4.75 per cent. Looking at the most recent data (end September), it is actually up 5 per cent year-on-year. Employment growth would be zero. In reality, it is up 1 per cent from already very high levels.
    Google "The Bank of England’s anti-Brexit bias endangers its credibility" to find the article without a subscription.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  12. #1512
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    You obviously didn't listen to Macron.

    Pride goeth before the fall.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  13. #1513
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    I don't see a single thing Macron said that shows we're currently having that fictional doom and gloom that you're going on about.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  14. #1514
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    You must've missed the part where he said: "No sweet deal for the UK."

    It's either a deal like Norway/Switzerland or like Canada. He said that explicitly.

    The latter means kissing goodbye to any idea of having financial services on the table. The former means that your trade deals, financial contributions and adherence to EU laws continue like before but without any political influence.

    Which kind of is what we've all been telling you all along. You're still labouring under the delusion that you'll get something else but those two options.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  15. #1515
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    No he didn't say that explicitly, he actually said that a deal could come between Norway/Switzerland and Canada.

    However neither Norway nor Canada is doom or gloom. Both are quite successful nations.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  16. #1516
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    They're also not quite what you want. And, no, he did NOT say that there's a deal between that. Where are you getting that shit from?

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...eu-is-possible

    “As an alternative to this full access, he specifically mentions an ambitious trade agreement of the type negotiated with Canada (obviously adapted to the UK, as every bilateral trade agreement is unique) but not a cherry-picking approach whereby the UK would have the advantages of access to the European single market without what is required in return.
    Anything else would be deluding yourself as both Switzerland and Norway would go up in flames over a better deal for the UK.

    As we also have told you repeatedly.

    And Canada, as we have also told you, doesn't involve financial services.
    Last edited by Khendraja'aro; 01-21-2018 at 09:00 AM.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  17. #1517
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    From your own quote you somehow missed the significance of the words adapted to the UK, as every bilateral trade agreement is unique.

    To avoid the FT's paywall Google the phrase "Macron boosts May’s hopes of bespoke EU trade deal" though there's a hint in the title of that article.
    Although Mr Macron said Britain could not have full access to the single market — including financial services access — unless it applied all of the EU’s rules, he could envisage a halfway-house compromise.

    “For sure you will have your own solution,” Mr Macron said in an interview with the BBC’s Andrew Marr broadcast on Sunday.

    The French president, speaking after a UK-France summit this week, suggested that a deal might fall somewhere between a Norway-style single market agreement and a free trade deal.

    <snip>

    Referring to a traditional deal, he added: “As soon as you decide not to meet those preconditions, it’s not full access. So it’s something perhaps between this full access and a trade agreement.
    'Between' was literally his own word.
    Last edited by RandBlade; 01-21-2018 at 11:06 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  18. #1518
    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    My God, Brits really are easily suckered by fudging.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  19. #1519
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Neither solution even if it were just those two is bad. A prospective bespoke one like Macron suggested could be even better.

    Khendraja'aro is acting like those two options are like choosing between drinking poison or acid. I on the other hand would be happy with both.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  20. #1520
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Neither solution even if it were just those two is bad. A prospective bespoke one like Macron suggested could be even better.

    Khendraja'aro is acting like those two options are like choosing between drinking poison or acid. I on the other hand would be happy with both.
    You conveniently left out the clarification the embassy later provided. Are you really this pathetically incapable of reading the WHOLE article? My quote is from that very clarification which came later than your quote. The clarification kind of throws cold water on the dumpster fire of your misinterpretations.

    And you would be happy with Norway? Seriously? Really? What?
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  21. #1521
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Khendraja'aro View Post
    You conveniently left out the clarification the embassy later provided. Are you really this pathetically incapable of reading the WHOLE article? My quote is from that very clarification which came later than your quote. The clarification kind of throws cold water on the dumpster fire of your misinterpretations.
    How did I "conveniently leave out the clarification" when I specifically quoted from your quotation that came from the clarification? I even put it in bold and you still missed me quoting it. My quote is from that very clarification.
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    From your own quote you somehow missed the significance of the words adapted to the UK, as every bilateral trade agreement is unique.
    And you would be happy with Norway? Seriously? Really? What?
    Yes, I've said that all along.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  22. #1522
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    Let's for the sake of argument assume that is true; then why for God's sake would you vote to throw out your ability to make the rules you're still going to have to follow?
    Greece shows us that there is a kind of politician worse than the ones that break their election promises; the ones that keep their election promises.

  23. #1523
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    I set out my priorities here: http://theworldforgotten.com/showthread.php?t=5467

    Norway can set its own trade policy.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  24. #1524
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Was struggling to find the thread where I went into more detail on my thinking before I decided to vote Brexit but once I'd started to consider it. As you can see, I said I was happy with the Norway option: http://theworldforgotten.com/showthread.php?t=5300
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  25. #1525
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    I set out my priorities here: http://theworldforgotten.com/showthread.php?t=5467

    Norway can set its own trade policy.
    Within limits. Basically, with the Norway models you get none of the say in legislature and still have to pay all the money. Those were your biggest issues.

    And that coming from the "Take back control!" crowd.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  26. #1526
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Khendraja'aro View Post
    Within limits. Basically, with the Norway models you get none of the say in legislature and still have to pay all the money. Those were your biggest issues.

    And that coming from the "Take back control!" crowd.
    Actually I covered both legislature and money in my second link.
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Influence on Single Market laws
    The UK gets more say on Single Market laws in the EU than in the EFTA so this would be an argument for Remaining. Though Hazir has tried to spend the last 15 years saying the UK has no influence anyway so it would not be if he's right.
    Remain in the EU

    Democratic accountability
    The EU applies a lot of laws that I think should have nothing to do with it, like on Social matters etc. EFTA nations are only required to apply about 5% of EU laws and those are typically on things like standards that are typically globalised anyway. EG electronics products are CE certified in the EU, but almost anything you buy is certified both FCC (USA Certification) and CE anyway. This would be the same whether we stay or Leave.
    EFTA or Leave

    Contributions to the EU
    The UK contributes £13bn per annum net of rebate to the EU which is rising as we are growing faster than the rest of the EU and get effectively charged more the more we grow. In the EFTA this would come down to about a third of the figure.
    EFTA or Leave would reduce or eliminate this.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  27. #1527
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Ahah. Only 5%? You're deluding yourself.

    Your own fucking government estimates the number of laws Norway had or chose to adopt at 75%.

    An independent study commissioned by the Norwegian Government in 2012 calculated that, in return for its access to the EU market, Norway has had to incorporate approximately three-quarters of all EU laws into its own domestic legislation
    https://www.gov.uk/government/upload...Accessible.pdf

    Also, I don't care if you don't adopt a law which would make fishers paint their caught prawns purple. Even if it were "only" five percent those five percent would be the ones which matter.

    Oh, and on the money matter, I'll quote your own fucking government again:

    In describing Norway’s contributions to EU spending, the former Norwegian Minister for Europe said that “our financial contributions are on a par with comparable EU Member States.”
    So much for "paying less".
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  28. #1528
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Quoting from a government that was on a mission to publish anything it could to slant the table so that Remain won? Great.

    The fact is that Norwegians contribute significantly less per capita than Brits do. Despite the fact that Norwegian GDP per capita is miles ahead of British GDP per capita, so if truly comparable they'd pay more.

    https://fullfact.org/europe/norway-eu-payments/
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  29. #1529
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    That's also what Norway says. Maybe you should try reading stuff at least sometimes?

    You want the Norwegian model? Ask the Norwegians about it.

    That isn't exactly rocket science, Gonzo.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  30. #1530
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    And Norwegians pay less per capita than we do despite having a considerably higher GDP per capita. Try looking at some facts.

    The Norwegians seem pretty happy with their lot and in no rush to change it, so why not ask them?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

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