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Thread: Brexit Begins

  1. #1591
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ... during a transition period. Not forever.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  2. #1592
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    Let's say that's true; how do you think to have all those new deals in place on the first of January 2021? Do you still believe anyone would seriously negotiate with you until they know for sure that you are not in some sort of customs arrangement with the EU in the end?
    Greece shows us that there is a kind of politician worse than the ones that break their election promises; the ones that keep their election promises.

  3. #1593
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    We don't need new deals all at once. We will muddle through and life goes on. Over time new deals will be negotiated.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  4. #1594
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    I see. So global Britain having free trade with the entire world has also been put on ice? This Brexit is really going to be a brilliant affair isn't it? You must be so satisfied with your vote.
    Greece shows us that there is a kind of politician worse than the ones that break their election promises; the ones that keep their election promises.

  5. #1595
    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    Excellent overview of an important problem:

    https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/...ering-eu-ftas/
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  6. #1596
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    Bojo held yet another speech today. He managed to wrap up some offensive (& unfunny) jokes in a whole lot of nothing. Every time I see him I wonder what Brits have done wrong to get burdened with him in the government.
    Greece shows us that there is a kind of politician worse than the ones that break their election promises; the ones that keep their election promises.

  7. #1597
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hazir View Post
    Every time I see him I wonder what Brits have done wrong to get burdened with him in the government.
    Every country gets the government it deserves.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  8. #1598
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  9. #1599
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    The Dutch tax office is hiring 750 extra customs workers.
    Greece shows us that there is a kind of politician worse than the ones that break their election promises; the ones that keep their election promises.

  10. #1600
    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    The report author, FTI’s John Maloney, rightly ponders why the collective views of individual businesses are seemingly so at odds with the public interventions made by their representative bodies on their behalf.
    Because the FTI's investigation is not credible. There isn't just a discrepancy between the views of the representative bodies and the people who responded to this survey but also between these respondents and respondents to extensive and thorough surveys conducted by those same representative groups. This is like a Fox news poll showing Trump to be the most popular president ever. The most charitable interpretation is that businesses expect a soft Brexit with continued FoM and continued supremacy of EU courts on trade- and rights-related matters.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  11. #1601
    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    http://www.fticonsulting.com/~/media...exit.pdf?la=en

    ‘The results hint at a misreading of the political reality. Certainty remains in short supply, with little prospect of companies getting comfort on the future trade agreement any time soon. The British Government has clearly stated that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, and the EU has clearly stated it will not let the UK cherry pick a trade deal. There will be some winners and some losers, assuming we even come to a deal. This could hit some sectors quite hard.’
    https://www.ft.com/content/e6fdd2a8-...6-b9ccc4c4dbbb

    European businesses still believe the UK may end up with a “soft Brexit” with little change to existing arrangements, even as UK ministers remain divided over how closely Britain should align itself with EU rules.

    A survey of more than 2,500 senior executives in the UK, France, Germany and Spain found that a majority of companies believe that Britain’s future relationship with the EU will maintain principles such as the free movement of people and oversight by the European Court of Justice.

    Of those questioned, 58 per cent also believe that the City of London will keep its prized “passporting” rights, which enable banks to offer financial services across the EU, after Brexit, despite this having been ruled out by Brussels, according to FTI consulting, the group that conducted the survey.

    [...]

    FTI said the findings “hint at a misreading of the political reality”.

    “Certainty remains in short supply” in the Brexit negotiations, “with little prospect of companies getting comfort on the future trade agreement any time soon”, said Hans Hack, a member of FTI’s Brexit task force.

    [...]

    Mrs May said this month that Britain was “categorically” leaving the EU’s customs union, something that Brussels has warned will inevitably complicate cross-border trade.

    [...]

    The executives surveyed by FTI warned that businesses will soon have to make “irreversible” changes to their operations to prepare for the UK’s departure from the EU. Of companies surveyed, 53 per cent said they would make these changes by next month, and almost three-quarters will have done so by June.

    UK businesses emerged as being the most concerned about the potential impact of Brexit, with 74 per cent expressing concerns, compared with an average of 61 per cent for German, French and Spanish companies.
    Unsurprisingly, a survey of business leaders in several large European countries finds that not everyone is concerned about the UK leaving the EU. We had no idea other countries would be so optimistic about gaining an advantage over the UK.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  12. #1602
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Meanwhile in today's most shocking news ever, it appears that the leader of the nation that has the biggest trade surplus with the UK actually does want a bespoke trade deal with what will be the EU's number one goods export market.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  13. #1603
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Meanwhile in today's most shocking news ever, it appears that the leader of the nation that has the biggest trade surplus with the UK actually does want a bespoke trade deal with what will be the EU's number one goods export market.

    Merkel sagte: "Ich bin neugierig, wie sich Großbritannien die Partnerschaft vorstellt. Und wir haben natürlich auch Interessen." Sie jedenfalls wolle eine enge Partnerschaft erhalten. Allerdings sei auch klar, dass es einen Unterschied zur EU-Mitgliedschaft Großbritanniens geben werde. Notwendig sei eine "faire Balance",

    So Randy, what she really said is that Brexit is going to hurt.
    Greece shows us that there is a kind of politician worse than the ones that break their election promises; the ones that keep their election promises.

  14. #1604
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    I don't speak German. But according to Google Translate that you've quoted is: I am curious how the UK presents the partnership. And of course we also have interests. "She wanted to have a close partnership. However, it is also clear that there will be a difference to the EU membership of the UK. Necessary is a "fair balance"

    Maybe its lost in translation but I don't see hurt there. I don't see anything objectionable there.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  15. #1605
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    The message is in the part where she says there will be a difference. That's another way of saying; no cherry picking. Which again means reduced access compared to the present situation. How far reduced is to be decided; and given that every trade deal with two parties is unique, it doesn't hurt to say that if it means you can negotiate with the UK rather than have the crazies take over in Whitehall.
    Greece shows us that there is a kind of politician worse than the ones that break their election promises; the ones that keep their election promises.

  16. #1606
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    No shit Sherlock that there'll be a difference to now. That's what we voted for.

    Only a Remainiac as utterly obsessive as you could translate "difference" to "hurts".
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  17. #1607
    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    If "difference" means "reduced and more costly access" for goods and services, then, yes, that implies hurt. You'll note that the business leaders in the survey you referred to earlier believe in a post-Brexit scenario that isn't what was voted for.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  18. #1608
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    Me a Remaniac? Buddy I wanted you out before you yourself had made up your mind about Brexit.
    Greece shows us that there is a kind of politician worse than the ones that break their election promises; the ones that keep their election promises.

  19. #1609
    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  20. #1610
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    I think you're overlooking the fact that the UK (in particular the Conservative Party) can't be trusted in its dealings with foreigners.
    Greece shows us that there is a kind of politician worse than the ones that break their election promises; the ones that keep their election promises.

  21. #1611
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    I don't speak German. But according to Google Translate that you've quoted is: I am curious how the UK presents the partnership. And of course we also have interests. "She wanted to have a close partnership. However, it is also clear that there will be a difference to the EU membership of the UK. Necessary is a "fair balance"

    Maybe its lost in translation but I don't see hurt there. I don't see anything objectionable there.
    It's actually a rather damning statement of your policies up-to-date. The first sentence is translated as: "I'm curious what the UK thinks the partnership should look like."

    Which actually means: "Godfuckingdamnit, will you morons finally make up your mind and tell us something realistic!"

    I mean, it's pretty telling that after a fucking year we still don't know what it is exactly what you want. You know which are the red lines. Up till now you still don't seem to understand that those actually exist.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  22. #1612
    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    The implication of Merkel's heavily publicized remarks is that she believes the UK does not know what it wants, but the EU may offer something between the Norway and Canada models as a best case scenario. Ie. worse than full membership, worse than Norway, better than Canada. Based on what we currently know, "better than Canada" isn't likely to imply a substantial deal on services, eg. financial services, unless major concessions are made by the UK.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  23. #1613
    Australian trade minister says special relationship with UK is now for 'yesteryear'

    "I see the European Union FTA [free trade agreement] as certainly commencing formal negotiations well and truly prior to anything that might happen with the UK"

    "Yes there will be an official working group, to look at scoping some of these [UK-Aussie trade] things, but to parallel that scoping exercise with the much more formal scoping exercise that the EU and Australia have undertaken I think would be a mistake"

    "The economic reality is that even our closest trading partners will prioritise talks with the EU, the biggest market in the world, over the UK. Pulling out of Europe’s single market would mean years of damaging uncertainty, job losses and investment. How do you tell businesses to wait years to know what the rules of trade will be?"

    Yay for now competing directly with the biggest market in the world

  24. #1614
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Europe without us is not the biggest market in the world by a long shot. It's America that is and China will overtake Europe for second before long (it's already ahead by PPP but will be ahead nominally in the next couple of years). Neither of those two larger markets being one Europe has been able to make a deal with.

    It's also a bit weird that you're quoting a minister's comments years ago when Australia's Foreign Minister today has made remarks that seem far more relevant.

    “I believe that, post Brexit, there will be enormous opportunities to engage more closely in trade and investment,” she said.

    “When the circumstances are right, when the timing is right, Australia would be keen to pursue a free trade agreement with the United Kingdom. High quality, comprehensive, gold standard.”


    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...-idUSKCN1G30V5

    “Australia is very keen to pursue a free trade agreement with the United Kingdom. I think that would be precluded if the United Kingdom were to rejoin the customs union,” she told reporters in London.

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-australia-trade/uk-staying-in-eu-customs-union-would-prevent-australia-deal-bishop-idUKKCN1G312H


    I wonder why you'd choose the negative two years old remarks and not the positive remarks made today?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  25. #1615
    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    "Yeah, I'll totally call you."
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  26. #1616
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    [I]“I believe that, post Brexit, there will be enormous opportunities to engage more closely in trade and investment,” she said.
    Translation: "They'll be so desperate for any kind of deal that we'll be able to pull them straight over the table."
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  27. #1617
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Europe without us is not the biggest market in the world by a long shot. It's America that is and China will overtake Europe for second before long (it's already ahead by PPP but will be ahead nominally in the next couple of years). Neither of those two larger markets being one Europe has been able to make a deal with.

    It's also a bit weird that you're quoting a minister's comments years ago when Australia's Foreign Minister today has made remarks that seem far more relevant.

    “I believe that, post Brexit, there will be enormous opportunities to engage more closely in trade and investment,” she said.

    “When the circumstances are right, when the timing is right, Australia would be keen to pursue a free trade agreement with the United Kingdom. High quality, comprehensive, gold standard.”


    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...-idUSKCN1G30V5

    “Australia is very keen to pursue a free trade agreement with the United Kingdom. I think that would be precluded if the United Kingdom were to rejoin the customs union,” she told reporters in London.

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-australia-trade/uk-staying-in-eu-customs-union-would-prevent-australia-deal-bishop-idUKKCN1G312H


    I wonder why you'd choose the negative two years old remarks and not the positive remarks made today?
    Whoops, I misread the date. I need to stop trying to do this whilst at work. Could have sworn I read Feb 2018

    Still the message is the same, really. When the timing is right i.e. they have a trade deal with the EU in place, they will talk to us. Slightly alarming, I'd say, if all other countries who are currently in talks with the EU take that approach.

  28. #1618
    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  29. #1619
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    I don't see the hilarity, seems a sensible move. At last.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  30. #1620
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    I don't see the hilarity, seems a sensible move. At last.
    "The British still don't know what they want so we decided to talk about other things until they finally make up their mind."
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

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