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Thread: Brexit Begins

  1. #4111
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    I don't think its a majority but yes it'd be good if Remainers stopped collaborating with Europe and fought for Britain but I don't expect to see it anytime.
    The poll says otherwise. And it's not even close.

    And if you really think that opposing Brexit is equivalent to collaborating with Europe, you really need to stop drinking the nationalist Kool-Aid.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  2. #4112
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    I wonder what Boris is going to bring to Brussels and Paris next week. His cake or will he be baking humble pie?

    And did he bother to unpack his boxes at Downing street 10?
    Last edited by Hazir; 08-16-2019 at 07:00 PM.
    Congratulations America

  3. #4113
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    Gosh, project fear turning out to be the most likely in case of a no deal brexit? And that's what the Johnson government writes down in a report? Who would have thought it.
    Congratulations America

  4. #4114
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Just wait for Rand to deny that the sky is blue, even when his favourite MoronInChief himself says so in (not so) secret (anymore).
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  5. #4115
    Quote Originally Posted by Hazir View Post
    Gosh, project fear turning out to be the most likely in case of a no deal brexit? And that's what the Johnson government writes down in a report? Who would have thought it.
    Why are you spreading fake news?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  6. #4116
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    If Gove would claim the sun rises in the east I'd double check.

    You lot are racing towards economic warfare with the EU by the way. It's amazing to see how desperate you are to be crushed.
    Congratulations America

  7. #4117
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    No, that is a mischaracterization of the document.

    No-deal Brexit preparations: the leaked Operation Yellowhammer document
    August 18 2019, 12:01am,
    The Sunday Times

    European Union
    Europe
    France
    Transport

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    BASE SCENARIO

    When the UK ceases to be a member of the European Union in October 2019, all rights and reciprocal arrangements with the EU end.

    ● The UK reverts fully to “third country” status. The relationship between the UK and the European Union as a whole is unsympathetic, with many member states (under pressure from the European Commission) unwilling to engage bilaterally and implementing protections unilaterally, though some member states may be more understanding.

    ● No bilateral deals have been concluded with individual member states, with the exception of the reciprocal agreement on social security co-ordination with the Republic of Ireland. EU citizens living in the UK can retain broadly all rights and status that they were entitled before the UK’s exit from the EU, at the point of exit.

    ● Public and business readiness for no-deal will remain at a low level, and will decrease to lower levels, because the absence of a clear decision on the form of EU Exit (customs union, no deal etc) does not provide a concrete situation for third parties to prepare for. Readiness will be further limited by increasing EU Exit fatigue caused by the second extension of article 50.

    ● Business readiness will not be uniform – in general large businesses that work across sectors are likely to have better developed counting plans than small and medium-size businesses. Business readiness will be compounded by seasonal effects and factors such as warehouse availability.

    ● Private sector companies’ behaviour will be governed by commercial considerations, unless they are influenced otherwise.

    ● Her Majesty’s government will act in accordance with the rule of law, including by identifying the powers it is using to take specific actions.

    ●Risks associated with autumn and winter, such as severe weather, flooding and seasonal flu, could exacerbate any effects and stretch the resources of partners and responders.

    KEY PLANNING ASSUMPTIONS

    Exit day
    For the purpose of freight flow and traffic management, as October 31 is a Thursday, Day 1 of Exit is now on a Friday rather than the weekend, which is not to our advantage. Exit Day may coincide with the half-term holiday, which varies across the UK.

    Member states
    In a small number of instances where the impacts of Brexit would be felt negatively in the EU as well as in the UK, member states may act in a way that could benefit the UK.

    Channel ports
    France will impose EU mandatory controls on UK goods on Day 1 of No Deal and has built infrastructure and IT systems to manage and process customs declarations and to support a risk-based control regime. On Day 1 of No Deal, 50%-85% of HGVs travelling via the short straits may not be ready for French customs. The lack of trader readiness combined with limited space in French ports to hold “unready” HGVs could reduce the flow rate to 40%-60% of current levels within one day.

    The worst disruption to the short Channel crossings might last 3 months before flow rates rise to about 50%-70% (as more traders get prepared), although disruption could continue much longer. In the event of serious disruption, the French might act to ensure some flow through the short Channel crossings.

    Disruption to Channel flow would also cause significant queues in Kent and delays to HGVs attempting to use the routes to travel to France. In a reasonable worst-case scenario, HGVs could face a maximum delay of 1½-2½ days before being able to cross the border. HGVs caught up in congestion in the UK will be unable to return to the EU to collect another load and some logistics firms may decide to avoid the route. Analysis to date has suggested a low risk of significant sustained queues at ports outside Kent that have high volumes of EU traffic, but the Border Delivery Group will continue to work directly with stakeholders at those ports to support planning readiness.

    Border checks
    UK citizens travelling to and from the EU may be subject to increased immigration checks at border posts. This may lead to passenger delays at St Pancras, Cheriton (Channel tunnel) and Dover, where border controls are juxtaposed. Depending on what plans EU member states put in place to cope with these increased immigration checks, it is likely delays will occur for UK arrivals and departures at EU airports and ports. This could cause some disruption on transport services. Travellers may decide to use alternative routes to complete their journey.

    Drugs and disease
    i) The Border Delivery Group/Department for Transport planning assumption on reduced flow rates describes a pre-mitigation reasonable worst-case flow rate that could be as low as 40% on Day 1 of No Deal via the short straits [main Channel crossings], with significant disruption lasting up to six months. Unmitigated, this will have an impact on the supply of medicines and medical supplies.

    Supply chains for medicines and medical products rely heavily on the short straits, which makes them particularly vulnerable to severe delays: three-quarters of medicines come via the short straits. Supply chains are also highly regulated and require transportation that meets strict Good Distribution Practices. This can include limits on transit times and temperature-controlled conditions. While some products can be stockpiled, others cannot because of short shelf lives. It will not be practical to stockpile six months’ supplies. The Department for Health and Social Care is developing a multi-layered approach to mitigate these risks.

    ii) Any disruption that reduces, delays or stops the supply of medicines for UK veterinary use would reduce our ability to prevent and control disease outbreaks, with potential harm to animal health and welfare, the environment and wider food safety and availability, as well as, in the case of zoonotic diseases, posing a risk to human health. Industry stockpiling will not be able to match the 4-12 weeks’ stockpiling that took place in March 2019. Air freight capacity and the special import scheme are not a financially viable way to mitigate risks associated with veterinary medicine availability issues.


    Food and water
    i) Certain types of fresh food supply will decrease. Critical elements of the food supply chain (such as ingredients, chemicals and packaging) may be in short supply. In combination, these two factors will not cause an overall shortage of food in the UK but will reduce availability and choice and increase the price, which will affect vulnerable groups. The UK growing season will have come to an end, so the agri-food supply chain will be under increased pressure for food retailers. Government will not be able to fully anticipate all effects on the agri-food supply chain. There is a risk that panic buying will disrupt food supplies.

    ii) Public water services are likely to remain largely unaffected, thanks to actions now being taken by water companies. The most significant single risk is a failure in the chemicals supply chain. The likelihood of this is considered low, and the impact is likely to be local, affecting only hundreds of thousands of people. Water companies are well prepared for any disruption: they have significant stocks of all critical chemicals, extensive monitoring of their chemicals supply chains (including transport and deliveries) and sharing agreements in place. In the event of a supply chain failure, or the need to respond rapidly to other water supply incidents, urgent action may need to be taken to make sure people continue to have access to clean water.

    Law and order
    Law enforcement data and information-sharing between the UK and the EU will be disrupted.

    Financial services and insurance
    Some cross-border UK financial services will be disrupted. A small minority of insurance payments from UK insurers into the EU may be delayed.

    Data
    The EU will not have made a data decision with regard to the UK before exit. This will disrupt the flow of personal data from the EU, where an alternative legal basis for transfer is not in place. In no-deal, an adequacy assessment could take years.

    Fuel
    Traffic disruption caused by border delays could affect fuel distribution in the local area, particularly if traffic queues In Kent block the Dartford crossing, which would disrupt fuel supply in London and the southeast. Customer behaviour could lead to shortages in other parts of the country.

    Tariffs make UK petrol exports to the EU uncompetitive. Industry had plans to mitigate the impact on refinery margins and profitability, but UK government policy to set petrol import tariffs at 0% inadvertently undermines these plans. This leads to big financial losses and the closure of two refineries (which are converted to import terminals) with about 2,000 direct job losses. Resulting strike action at refineries would lead to disruptions to fuel availability for 1-2 weeks in the regions they directly supply. Government analysis of the impact of no-deal on refineries continues.

    Northern Ireland
    On Day 1 of No Deal, Her Majesty’s government will activate the “no new checks with limited exceptions” model announced on March 13, establishing a legislative framework and essential operations and system on the ground, to avoid an immediate risk of a return to a hard border on the UK side.

    The model is likely to prove unsustainable because of economic, legal and biosecurity risks. With the UK becoming a “third [non-EU] country”, the automatic application of EU tariffs and regulatory requirements for goods entering Ireland will severely disrupt trade. The expectation is that some businesses will stop trading or relocate to avoid either paying tariffs that will make them uncompetitive or trading illegally; others will continue to trade but will experience higher costs that may be passed on to consumers. The agri-food sector will be hardest hit, given its reliance on complicated cross-border supply chains and the high tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade.

    Disruption to key sectors and job losses are likely to result in protests and direct action with road blockades. Price and other differentials are likely to lead to the growth of the illegitimate economy. This will be particularly severe in border communities where criminal and dissident groups already operate with greater freedom. Given the tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade, there will be pressure to agree new arrangements to supersede the Day 1 model within days or weeks.

    Energy supplies
    Demand for energy will be met, and there will be no disruption to electricity or gas interconnectors. In Northern Ireland there will not be immediate disruption to electricity supply on Day 1. A rapid split of SEM could occur months or years after the EU Exit. In this event there would not be issues about security of supply. However, there will probably be marked price rises for electricity customers (business and domestic), with associated wider economic and political effects. Some participants could exit the market, exacerbating economic and political effects.

    Gibraltar
    Because of the imposition of checks at its border with Spain (and the knock-on effect of delays from the UK to the EU), Gibraltar will see disruption to the supply of goods (including food and medicines) and to shipments of waste, plus delays of four-plus hours for at least a few months in the movement of frontier workers, residents and tourists across the border.

    Prolonged border delays over the longer term are likely to harm Gibraltar’s economy. As on the UK mainland, cross-border services and data flow will be disrupted. Despite the time extension to the UK’s exit from the EU, Gibraltar has still not taken the decisions to invest in contingency infrastructure (such as port adjustments and waste management equipment) and there are still concerns that Gibraltar will not have passed all necessary legislation for no-deal, opening up legal risks mainly for the government of Gibraltar. Gibraltar continues to plan for less significant border delays than in our Yellowhammer scenario. Crown dependencies may be affected by supply chain disruption.

    Brits in Europe
    i) UK nationals will lose their EU citizenship and can expect to lose associated rights and access to services over time, or be required to access them on a different basis. All member states have now published legislative proposals, but not all have passed legislation to secure all rights for UK nationals.

    There is a mixed picture across member states in terms of the level of generosity and detail in the legislation. In some member states, UK nationals need to take action now. Complex administrative procedures within member states, language barriers and uncertainty regarding the UK political situation are contributing to some UK nationals being slow to take action. Demands for help on Her Majesty’s government will increase significantly, including an increase in consular inquiries and more complex and time-consuming consular assistance cases for vulnerable UK nationals.

    Cross-government support, including continued close engagement and clear communications from UK government departments and the departmental agencies, will be needed to help manage the demand.

    ii) An EU member state would continue to pay a pension it currently pays to a UK national living in the EU.

    iii) The commission and individual member states do not agree to extend the current healthcare arrangements for UK state pensioners and tourists beyond October 31, 2019, and refuse offers by the UK to fund treatments. Member states take no further action to guarantee healthcare for UK nationals and treat them in the same way as the other “third country” nationals. UK pensioners, workers, travellers and students will need to access healthcare in different ways, depending on the country. Healthcare systems may require people to demonstrate residency and current or previous employment, to enter a social insurance scheme or to purchase private insurance. Member states should treat people with urgent needs but may require them to pay after the fact. There is a risk of disruption for patients, and a minority could face substantial costs.

    Protests and police
    Protests and counter-protests will take place across the UK, using up police resources. There may also be a rise in public disorder and community tensions.

    Fishing
    Up to 282 EU and European Economic Area nations’ fishing vessels could enter illegally or are already fishing in UK waters: up to 129 vessels in English waters, 100 in Scottish waters, 40 in Welsh waters and 13 in Northern Irish waters on Day 1. This is likely to cause anger and frustration in the UK catching sector, which could lead to clashes between fishing vessels and an increase in non-compliance in the domestic fleet.

    Competing demands on UK government and maritime departmental agencies and their assets could put enforcement and response capabilities at risk, especially in the event of illegal fishing, border violations (smuggling and illegal migration) and any disorder or criminality arising as a result, eg violent disputes or blockading of ports.

    The poor
    Low-income groups will be disproportionately affected by rises in the price of food and fuel.

    Social care
    There is an assumption that there will be no big changes in adult social care on the day after EU Exit. The adult social care market is already fragile because of the declining financial viability of providers.

    An increase in inflation after the UK’s EU exit would affect providers of adult social care through increasing staff and supply costs, and might lead to failure within 2-3 months for smaller providers and 4-6 months for larger ones. There are also local risks — transport or staff disruption, severe winter weather or flu — that could exacerbate existing market fragility and that cumulatively could stretch the resources of providers and local authorities.

    Intelligence will continue to be gathered to prepare for any effects on the sector, including closure of services and handing-back of contracts that are not part of the normal market function. In addition, by mid-August we will look at the status of preparations in four local authorities identified as concerns.
    The document outlines the base scenario as it was until only recently understood by the govt, along with a range of more or less likely consequences. This is what leaders have likely been briefed on. If Gove wants the world to believe that the govt's position is markedly different from the base scenario outlined in this leaked report, then he should present the analysis that has superseded the analysis presented here.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  8. #4118
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    Gosh, they apparently even accepted additional deaths for their no deal choice.
    Congratulations America

  9. #4119
    Taken from Reddit, fitting for here

    I mean, there are literally no other options.

    The three options on the table:

    No deal
    Brexit deal (as negotiated previously)
    Stay
    No other alternative actually is possible for the parties involved. The Brexit deal as negotiated is the only deal that makes sense to the EU.

    And the EU needs the UK less than the UK needs the deal or the EU. Meanwhile, further concessions to the UK might actually jeopardize the integrity of the EU.

    Brexit deal is unpalatable to the UK because its a crappier version of stay. But that is because stay is the only option that actually makes geopolitical and economic sense.

    The issue is the Brexit is the default. And since no one in the UK has the political mandate to swallow deal, or force stay... its going to be no deal Brexit...

    Which is literally a disaster for the UK. They might lose Scotland (and maybe Northern Ireland). London's stature as a global financial center is jeopardized as it no longer has easy access to European markets. Furthermore, once it loses its status there is no guarantee it will get it back.

    Its status as a global financial center is based on its historic position at the center of an Empire that no longer exists and as an English speaking window into EU markets. Additionally, it has infrastructure to handle trade and finances built up over centuries of being one of the most powerful cities globally.

    Once it loses its infrastructure as people move their trade and financial services to places like Frankfurt which will have access to the much larger EU economy, there is no reason that this infrastructure will ever return.

    With no deal, the UK might be reduced to an isolated England and Wales - even Northern Ireland might want out and into the EU. A small isolated 60 million person, 2 trillion (for now) whose claim to fame is the tourist trap that is the royal family.

    And so an Empire breathes its lasts gasps. Felled not but by a new young rival, war, natural disasters, or disease. No, felled by its own apathy, hubris and small mindedness. Its carcass left for its former colonies or former vassals like the US and China to pick clean.

    It was not a Spanish Armada, of a German Blitz, a Soviet Nuke or climate change that felled the beast. No, it was a pig head fucker, old racist ignorant xenophobes, some internet trolls, a younger generation who couldn't be bothered to vote and finally a power court jester with wannabe Trump hair.

    It is, in the end, oddly fitting the Bojo the Court Jester presides over the last rites of the end the farcical tragic comedy.
    "In a field where an overlooked bug could cost millions, you want people who will speak their minds, even if they’re sometimes obnoxious about it."

  10. #4120
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Taken from Reddit, fitting for here <snip>
    I think the author needs to breath into a paper bag, he seems to be hyperventilating.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  11. #4121
    https://www.businessinsider.com/bori...ficials-2019-8

    Looks like the EU is getting tired of dealing with morons.
    "In a field where an overlooked bug could cost millions, you want people who will speak their minds, even if they’re sometimes obnoxious about it."

  12. #4122
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    https://www.businessinsider.com/bori...ficials-2019-8

    Looks like the EU is getting tired of dealing with morons.
    Actually that already started when May was still around. What amazes us is that certain Brits think that them having a new PM matters a jot to us.
    Congratulations America

  13. #4123
    Johnson's letter should be regarded as post-Brexit election campaign mummery, not as a serious attempt at dialogue with the EU. The letter itself implies the need for a backstop. The EU does not currently appear to have any intention of renegotiating with a disingenuous chancer leading an untrustworthy govt, and, at this point, I don't think the EU cares that Johnson is trying to scapegoat the EU for his efforts to bring about NDB for personal gain.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  14. #4124
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    Johnson's letter should be regarded as post-Brexit election campaign mummery, not as a serious attempt at dialogue with the EU. The letter itself implies the need for a backstop. The EU does not currently appear to have any intention of renegotiating with a disingenuous chancer leading an untrustworthy govt, and, at this point, I don't think the EU cares that Johnson is trying to scapegoat the EU for his efforts to bring about NDB for personal gain.
    Well, it is a first that the President of the Council has called one of the Council members a liar.
    Congratulations America

  15. #4125
    I'm glad that Johnson is treating this matter with the seriousness that it requires. There is no point in sugar coating the undemocratic backstop, it is unacceptable and will never be ratified. So either renegotiate or there is no deal, it is as simple as that.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  16. #4126
    Lmao, the man is a shameless bullshitter.

    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  17. #4127
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    I'm glad that Johnson is treating this matter with the seriousness that it requires. There is no point in sugar coating the undemocratic backstop, it is unacceptable and will never be ratified. So either renegotiate or there is no deal, it is as simple as that.
    First of all one would have to note that De Pfeffel's offer doesn't contain even the beginning of what you could call a proposal. So why you would call him serious, seriously eludes me.

    Other than that, there will be either a WA, or there won't be a WA. If the latter will be the case you will be agreeing to pay the €50bn, you will enable a borderless island of Ireland and you will guarantee the rights of EU citizens. After that you may be invited to talk about a trade deal.

    Brexit is a losing game, and we're not going to fix your problems.
    Congratulations America

  18. #4128
    There is no need for an alternative because the very claim we need a solution is garbage. The Irish border can't and shouldn't be addressed until we have resolved what the future relationship between the UK and EU looks like. Once we know that, then we know what issues there are for the border and can solve them. The problem is the EU's insistence upon putting the cart before the horse and May's mistake in accepting that sequencing which thankfully the PM now is calling out for the bullshit it always was.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  19. #4129
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    There is no need for an alternative because the very claim we need a solution is garbage. The Irish border can't and shouldn't be addressed until we have resolved what the future relationship between the UK and EU looks like. Once we know that, then we know what issues there are for the border and can solve them. The problem is the EU's insistence upon putting the cart before the horse and May's mistake in accepting that sequencing which thankfully the PM now is calling out for the bullshit it always was.
    Alrighty Humpty Dumpty.
    Congratulations America

  20. #4130
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    There is no need for an alternative because the very claim we need a solution is garbage. The Irish border can't and shouldn't be addressed until we have resolved what the future relationship between the UK and EU looks like. Once we know that, then we know what issues there are for the border and can solve them. The problem is the EU's insistence upon putting the cart before the horse and May's mistake in accepting that sequencing which thankfully the PM now is calling out for the bullshit it always was.
    The problem with this is that your own PM previously voted for the backstop. So why exactly is it suddenly okay for him to do a full 180°? I mean, one of your main talking points is that you shouldn't go back on something you voted on, right? The logic doesn't quite square there.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  21. #4131
    The leader of the ERG and our current Foreign Secretary also voted for it

  22. #4132
    Quote Originally Posted by Khendraja'aro View Post
    The problem with this is that your own PM previously voted for the backstop. So why exactly is it suddenly okay for him to do a full 180°? I mean, one of your main talking points is that you shouldn't go back on something you voted on, right? The logic doesn't quite square there.
    Our own PM rejected it twice and only backed it very reluctantly and even then it was rejected by Parliament. So we've moved on, so should you, stop flogging a dead horse.

    Even your own Chancellor is now talking about it possibly being replaced within the next 30 days. After a year of saying this couldn't possibly be changed, to now say it possibly could is great progress. Reality starting to dawn on Europe perhaps?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  23. #4133
    It's not great progress, it's politeness. Nothing has changed. You really should stop getting all your info from the DM.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  24. #4134
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Our own PM rejected it twice and only backed it very reluctantly and even then it was rejected by Parliament. So we've moved on, so should you, stop flogging a dead horse.

    Even your own Chancellor is now talking about it possibly being replaced within the next 30 days. After a year of saying this couldn't possibly be changed, to now say it possibly could is great progress. Reality starting to dawn on Europe perhaps?
    Actually she said nothing of the sort. It was picked up by the buffoon and the British media as some sort of ultimatum to come up with an alternative arrangement. It in reality was more like a repetition of the exchange with May she joked about previously; 'tell us what you want'. That as opposed to telling us what you don't want. Kind of sending the buffoon home to do his homework. But the paramount lack of when the 30 day period to find an alternative for the backstop would be means that the backstop itself and the non-negotiability of the WA stands.

    Anybody with half a working brain would have recognized the 'ultimatum' for what it was; putting the blame for 'no-deal' on the head of the De Pfeffel administration.
    Congratulations America

  25. #4135
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Even your own Chancellor is now talking about it possibly being replaced within the next 30 days.
    Actually, what she really said was: "You have 30 days to come up with something concrete. Good luck with that, your predecessor didn't manage to do so for the last two years."

    I paraphrased, she was a bit more polite (unlike Macron who didn't pull any punches). What she did give you was an ultimatum. Just like you guys to completely misinterpret what was actually said.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  26. #4136
    You both fail to understand the realpolitik of the situation. For the past year the united front of the EU has been an immutable and unwavering "the WDA is closed, it can not be changed". No ifs, no buts, no changes.

    Now however Boris has shown he was serious suddenly we are getting critical changes. Now its a matter of finding a replacement and getting it agreed, something that was previously impossible. Secondly, it is now a case of Boris negotiating with national leaders rather than Tusk and Barnier.

    Step one is complete: Accept a replacement is possible. Now it comes to step two: Agree a replacement.

    Easier said than done true, but very possible. The reality is that Boris doesn't want no deal but has no choice but to take us down the path of no deal if he fails to get an agreement. Furthermore Merkel has just killed Corbyn's attempts to bring down Boris in a VONC at the start of September, a number of opposition MPs have said they won't VONC Boris until after the negotiations and by then it is into October and basically too late to avoid no deal. Varadkar doesn't want no deal either, he bluffed and bet big when he thought he could force May to accept the backstop but now his bluff has been called he needs a way out, which is why May and Macron are holding the door open to a change.

    Varadkar doesn't want to be the fool who brought about no deal. He wants to be the hero who got the best deal for Ireland.

    Next step now is for Boris and Varadkar to agree a face-saving change to allow Varadkar to get a deal. As soon as Boris and Varadkar hold a joint press conference saying they've reached an accord all the pieces will be in place. The EU will ratify it as Macron and Merkel have opened the window to.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  27. #4137
    Johnson is not negotiating with national leaders, they're helping him understand his homework. Merkel and Macron are indicating that they do not believe Johnson can find a solution that does not require a backstop in the WA (an assessment bolstered by his letter and by the generally untrustworthy conduct of UK leadership over the past two years) and that they're both happy to give him enough rope to hang himself with.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  28. #4138
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    You both fail to understand the realpolitik of the situation. For the past year the united front of the EU has been an immutable and unwavering "the WDA is closed, it can not be changed". No ifs, no buts, no changes.

    Now however Boris has shown he was serious suddenly we are getting critical changes. Now its a matter of finding a replacement and getting it agreed, something that was previously impossible. Secondly, it is now a case of Boris negotiating with national leaders rather than Tusk and Barnier.

    Step one is complete: Accept a replacement is possible. Now it comes to step two: Agree a replacement.

    Easier said than done true, but very possible. The reality is that Boris doesn't want no deal but has no choice but to take us down the path of no deal if he fails to get an agreement. Furthermore Merkel has just killed Corbyn's attempts to bring down Boris in a VONC at the start of September, a number of opposition MPs have said they won't VONC Boris until after the negotiations and by then it is into October and basically too late to avoid no deal. Varadkar doesn't want no deal either, he bluffed and bet big when he thought he could force May to accept the backstop but now his bluff has been called he needs a way out, which is why May and Macron are holding the door open to a change.

    Varadkar doesn't want to be the fool who brought about no deal. He wants to be the hero who got the best deal for Ireland.

    Next step now is for Boris and Varadkar to agree a face-saving change to allow Varadkar to get a deal. As soon as Boris and Varadkar hold a joint press conference saying they've reached an accord all the pieces will be in place. The EU will ratify it as Macron and Merkel have opened the window to.
    I know you're desperate for any good news in all this, but literally nothing has changed in the last few days. If a solution to the Irish border problem can be found the backstop isn't needed. That's always been the case.

  29. #4139
    Senior Member Flixy's Avatar
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    I think you missed the step where boris comes with an actual proposal other than saying what's wrong about the current agreement.
    Keep on keepin' the beat alive!

  30. #4140
    https://www.ft.com/content/1cb17f3c-...9-296ca66511c9

    UK net migration has fallen 12 per cent to 226,000, driven by the lowest level of EU nationals arriving in six years.

    The data, released on Thursday, come just a day after the Office for National Statistics announced it had downgraded its migration estimates to the status of “experimental” data because the figures had historically underestimated the scale of migration by EU nationals and overestimated arrivals from outside Europe.

    The latest statistics, which cover the 12 months to the end of March 2019 and have been produced under an improved metric, show that EU immigration has continued to fall since the Brexit vote and is now at its lowest level since 2013. This is mainly because of a decline in economic migration: the number of EU nationals arriving to work dropped to 92,000 in the year to March, less than half the peak of 190,000 in the year to June 2016.


    The ONS said it would continue to refine and improve its migration estimates in future by referencing figures from its passenger survey against separate data on migrants from departments across government.

    Although EU immigration decreased, there was still a net inflow of 59,000 EU nationals into the country. However, while the numbers of migrants from “old” EU countries such as France and Germany continued to add to the UK population, there has been a net outflow of so-called EU8 citizens from central and eastern European countries: in total, 7,000 more EU8 nationals left the UK than arrived.

    Julia Onslow-Cole, a partner at immigration law firm Fragomen, said the decrease of eastern European nationals was a “worrying trend” because these citizens make up a significant part of the workforce in the hospitality, construction and healthcare sectors. “Coupled with the uncertainty about the new immigration landscape post Brexit, this piles pressure on business,” she said.

    Net migration from outside the EU remained broadly stable at 219,000, with particular increases in those coming to Britain to study.

    Commenting on the data, Matthew Fell, chief policy director at the CBI business lobby group, warned that the downward trend in EU net migration, combined with record low unemployment, meant skills shortages were becoming more acute.

    “Business understands that free movement is ending, but it marks a huge change in the way firms access skills and labour,” he said. “They’ll need proper time to adapt to a new system.”

    Employers have been particularly concerned by the announcement earlier this week that the government would immediately end free movement on October 31 in the event of a no-deal Brexit. “This has left employers and their employees asking fundamental questions about what this means for them. They urgently need this clarified,” Mr Fell said.

    The Oxford Migration Observatory said the migration data proved the government simply would not be able to enforce an immediate end to free movement after October 31, even if it wanted to. A total of 200,000 EU citizens migrated to the UK in the year ending March 2019. After Brexit, there will be no way of telling these people apart from an estimated 2m EU nationals already resident in the UK who will not have applied for settled status, which ensures their continued rights to live and work in Britain, ahead of Brexit day.

    Madeleine Sumption, director of Oxford Migration Observatory, said the proposed hard stop on free movement would cause huge logistical problems for employers who would struggle to differentiate EU citizens who have been here for years from those arriving into a new post-Brexit immigration regime requiring work and study visas for those who want to stay in the UK long-term.

    “Even if the government knew exactly what it wanted the post-Brexit immigration system to look like, it wouldn’t be possible to implement it immediately after a no-deal Brexit,” she said. “Realistically, the only way to do this is to implement the EU settlement scheme so that EU citizens have had enough time to apply for status before restrictions are imposed.”

    Seema Kennedy, immigration minister, said leaving the EU would allow the government to have full control over who can come to the UK. “[This] means ending free movement as it currently stands and establishing a points-based immigration system which attracts the brightest and the best from around the world,” she said.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

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