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Thread: Brexit Begins

  1. #2491
    You seem to have morphed from right to left internationalist the longer you're in academia interestingly too if you don't mind me saying.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  2. #2492
    No, I'm still a liberal, which I take to be grossly inconsistent with nationalism, but clearly that's becoming a minority position.

    FYI, the left-right axis has all but disappeared in academia as well. On the positive side, it means not having to hear about pie-in-the-sky economic policies. On the negative side, group think is probably at a record high.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  3. #2493
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Try learning to read. That's not what I said. You ignorant moron.
    No, what you said was a heap of steaming shit. They're not soothsayers. They're people who implement and process the rules by which your government works. These same people are now telling you: "These rules used in those processes will become invalid after a Hard Brexit. Which means that those processes will come to a complete stop in that case. As of yet, there are no sufficient replacement rules."

    Meanwhile you go and completely misrepresent what those people are telling you, just because they're experts in their field - it seems that you routinely scoff at people who are professionals in their job. It's utterly absurd that you, who have as of yet shown not even the least bit of ability to educate yourself on how international trade works, present yourself as a beacon of ignorance. While being proud of said ignorance.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  4. #2494
    It's the forecasts I'm scoffing at and for good reason. This is the forecast the Treasury "experts" made during the referendum campaign, forecasting a "shock" and an "immediate recession" following a vote. Not exit, not Article 50 but following the vote. They posited two scenarios for the two years after a Brexit vote, a shock and a severe shock. Reality was completely different.

    Forecast, see page 43: https://assets.publishing.service.go...the_eu_web.pdf
    Quarter Shock Severe Shock Reality
    2016 Q3 -0.1% -1.0% 0.5%
    2016 Q4 -0.1% -0.4% 0.7%
    2017 Q1 -0.1% -0.4% 0.4%
    2017 Q2 -0.1% -0.4% 0.2%
    2017 Q3 0.2% 0.0% 0.4%
    2017 Q4 0.2% 0.0% 0.4%
    2018 Q1 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
    2018 Q2 0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
    Total 0.4% -2.0% 3.2%


    Reality: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/gross...eries/ihyq/pn2

    Reality is completely different to Project Fear. They also forecast a massive surge in unemployment, in reality unemployment has come in at its lowest amount in nearly half a century since before we joined the EU.

    Oh and the total is actually further out as I've just summed up the quarters, when you take into account compound growth the difference is greater than the 5.2% forecast in the severe shock scenario.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  5. #2495
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    Except that we're not talking about forecasts. We're talking about the legal implications of Brexit.
    Congratulations America

  6. #2496
    I'm talking about the forecasts. They're garbage.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  7. #2497
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    source

    There is little more fun than Brexiteers when they start to realise what it actually was they campaigned and voted for.
    Congratulations America

  8. #2498
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45256075

    Civil service forecasts continuing to be absolute bullshit.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  9. #2499
    Dear TrumpBlade, please read articles before commenting.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  10. #2500
    I did. "If this trend persists, borrowing will total just £23.7bn this year, much less than the £37.1bn forecast by the OBR in the Spring Statement."

    If you check the source figures (not in article) the borrowing figure is £5.8bn below that which the OBR forecast.

    "Public sector net borrowing (excluding public sector banks) in the latest full financial year (April 2017 to March 2018) was £39.4 billion; that is, £6.4 billion less than in the previous financial year (April 2016 to March 2017) and £5.8 billion less than official (Office for Budget Responsibility) expectations; this is the lowest net borrowing for 11 years (financial year ending 2007)."

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/gover...ances/july2018
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  11. #2501
    Dear TrumpBlade, please read the articles you link to before you try to use them to make a point.

    July is usually a good month for the Exchequer. Because self-employed people make the second of two self-assessed tax payments in July, the chancellor tends to enjoy more money flowing in than flowing out in spending.

    [...]

    The public finances are prone to surpluses in July because of money coming in from self-assessed income tax returns.

    [...]

    Ruth Gregory, senior UK economist at Capital Economics [...] added: "The recent improvement has been partly due to temporary factors, such as the timing of gilt issuance and redemptions."

    [...]

    Shadow chancellor John McDonnell said: "The chancellor has passed on the deficit to his colleagues in other departments.... hard-pressed families and underpaid public sector workers have been made to pay for the price of Tory failure on the economy, with brutal cuts to social provision and relentless pay restraint."
    Crowing over this isn't much better than crowing over increasing exports as a percentage of GDP by temporarily lowering GDP.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  12. #2502
    You moron. I didn't crow about the July figure in isolation. I didn't say anything about us being in surplus. I spoke about the difference to the predictions which take July being a positive month into account.

    The forecast potential nearly £14bn reduction in the deficit from forecast is taking that into account.

    The year to date figures are for four months not 1. The OBR being out on LAST YEAR'S figures by nearly £6bn is for a 12 month period not 1 month.

    So learnt to read yourself.

    As for McDonnell's comment if you want to listen to that lunatic Marxist then yes the Chancellor has cut the deficit by restraining spending, restraining pay and austerity. That is the point. We had to we couldn't go on spending with an over 10% budget deficit as much as he would like to blow the budget.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  13. #2503
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    If you check the source figures (not in article) the borrowing figure is £5.8bn below that which the OBR forecast.

    "Public sector net borrowing (excluding public sector banks) in the latest full financial year (April 2017 to March 2018) was £39.4 billion; that is, £6.4 billion less than in the previous financial year (April 2016 to March 2017) and £5.8 billion less than official (Office for Budget Responsibility) expectations; this is the lowest net borrowing for 11 years (financial year ending 2007)."

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/gover...ances/july2018
    See word in bold. Yeah July is all that matters ...
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  14. #2504
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    You realize no economic model used for those predictions really can predict the effects of the entire business model of huge numbers of companies being ripped apart, don't you?
    Congratulations America

  15. #2505
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    You moron. I didn't crow about the July figure in isolation. I didn't say anything about us being in surplus. I spoke about the difference to the predictions which take July being a positive month into account.

    The forecast potential nearly £14bn reduction in the deficit from forecast is taking that into account.

    The year to date figures are for four months not 1. The OBR being out on LAST YEAR'S figures by nearly £6bn is for a 12 month period not 1 month.

    So learnt to read yourself.

    As for McDonnell's comment if you want to listen to that lunatic Marxist then yes the Chancellor has cut the deficit by restraining spending, restraining pay and austerity. That is the point. We had to we couldn't go on spending with an over 10% budget deficit as much as he would like to blow the budget.
    Forecasts and estimates are frequently revised (as this latest estimate will be, which you apparently haven't realized: "Caution should be taken when comparing public sector finances data with OBR figures for the full financial year. Data are not finalised until sometime after the financial year ends, with initial estimates made soon after the end of the financial year often subject to sizeable revisions in later months as forecasts are replaced with audited outturn data"), as is policy. If you change policy eg. by slashing funding for various services/functions, that's not necessarily a win--it's just a trick, one that often leaves your citizens worse off. It is, consequently, nothing to crow about. You might argue that it's sensible to slash funding and put your citizens through hardship, but that is a separate matter; it has little to do with forecasts. Moreover, forecasts cannot and should not be expected to be able to account for fickleness and outright dishonesty (eg. govt. changing position repeatedly, or attempting to deceive both parliament and businesses, as well as the public). The absolute numbers do not take into account the change in the value of sterling (2.2-2.5% lower than last year) For an overview of actual performance on forecasting, and the overall trend seen in reality, see:

    https://www.ft.com/content/a3a17eac-...8-cae73aab7ccb
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  16. #2506
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    So, from what I read, HMG will now post a series of predictions about the serious impacts a Hard Brexit will have and will pull no punches.

    So, we have the majority of economic experts who say that such a Brexit will be disaster. We have the various civil services warning about it regarding flight restrictions, distribution of food, medicine, ... We have a number of manager of businesses small and large warning about it.

    And now your prime minister will join that club.

    So, Rand, you now only have the likes of Farage and Johnson as your compatriots. That company should give you pause and make you think, but I'm sure that any such hope will be futile.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  17. #2507
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hazir View Post
    You realize no economic model used for those predictions really can predict the effects of the entire business model of huge numbers of companies being ripped apart, don't you?
    Well, we can predict the rough direction and speed: Downhill, fast.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  18. #2508
    Quote Originally Posted by Khendraja'aro View Post
    So, from what I read, HMG will now post a series of predictions about the serious impacts a Hard Brexit will have and will pull no punches.

    So, we have the majority of economic experts who say that such a Brexit will be disaster. We have the various civil services warning about it regarding flight restrictions, distribution of food, medicine, ... We have a number of manager of businesses small and large warning about it.

    And now your prime minister will join that club.

    So, Rand, you now only have the likes of Farage and Johnson as your compatriots. That company should give you pause and make you think, but I'm sure that any such hope will be futile.
    So what's changed since before the referendum? Project Fear had those before the referendum too.

    The PM has decided its easier to get leavers to back down than to get the EU to do so, so is ramping up Project Fear in order to intimidate the leavers into backing down and accepting her pathetic "deal".
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  19. #2509
    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    Forecasts and estimates are frequently revised (as this latest estimate will be, which you apparently haven't realized: "Caution should be taken when comparing public sector finances data with OBR figures for the full financial year. Data are not finalised until sometime after the financial year ends, with initial estimates made soon after the end of the financial year often subject to sizeable revisions in later months as forecasts are replaced with audited outturn data"), as is policy. If you change policy eg. by slashing funding for various services/functions, that's not necessarily a win--it's just a trick, one that often leaves your citizens worse off. It is, consequently, nothing to crow about. You might argue that it's sensible to slash funding and put your citizens through hardship, but that is a separate matter; it has little to do with forecasts. Moreover, forecasts cannot and should not be expected to be able to account for fickleness and outright dishonesty (eg. govt. changing position repeatedly, or attempting to deceive both parliament and businesses, as well as the public). The absolute numbers do not take into account the change in the value of sterling (2.2-2.5% lower than last year) For an overview of actual performance on forecasting, and the overall trend seen in reality, see:

    https://www.ft.com/content/a3a17eac-...8-cae73aab7ccb
    Forecasts are frequently revised but that's normally swings and roundabouts. When its systematically getting revised one way there's a problem. Since the referendum these have been consistently and dramatically getting revised in one direction only. To quote your link The Treasury was shockingly over-pessimistic.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  20. #2510
    Quote Originally Posted by Hazir View Post
    You realize no economic model used for those predictions really can predict the effects of the entire business model of huge numbers of companies being ripped apart, don't you?
    You're right, instead they're pretending that business models will be ripped apart while in reality businesses move on as life goes on. Businesses evolve.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  21. #2511
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Forecasts are frequently revised but that's normally swings and roundabouts. When its systematically getting revised one way there's a problem. Since the referendum these have been consistently and dramatically getting revised in one direction only. To quote your link The Treasury was shockingly over-pessimistic.
    No, typically forecasts and estimates are considerably more likely to be revised in one direction than in another. You would expect equality if the errors were completely random, but they are not, and in many of these situations pessimistic or conservative estimates are preferred (the US's estimates of GDP, in contrast, tends to be overly optimistic, unlike those of many other western countries). This isn't even a typical situation, and forecasting is being made more difficult by public and business having to react to HMG's sudden shifts, confusion, obfuscation and outright lies. Under such circumstances, exact forecasting is difficult. However, the direction seems to have been pretty clear at most stages, and the biggest losers have clearly been the greatest optimists.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  22. #2512
    https://www.gov.uk/government/public...no-brexit-deal

    Zero costs.

    For an alternative definition of zero.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  23. #2513
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    You know, in the distant future the 29th of March may very well be known as the final end of the British Empire. After losing most of its colonies, finally the center couldn't hold either. The English will have to start learning to live as people from a not particularly important country, after believing they were so much more for centuries.
    Congratulations America

  24. #2514
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    So what's changed since before the referendum? Project Fear had those before the referendum too.

    The PM has decided its easier to get leavers to back down than to get the EU to do so, so is ramping up Project Fear in order to intimidate the leavers into backing down and accepting her pathetic "deal".
    Here's what you still don't get: EVERYONE who matters is now telling you what the results will be. The results WE did tell you about all the time.

    The only holdouts now are scum like Farage and Johnson. And people like you.

    Nice company you're keeping. Those are your friends now.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  25. #2515
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    You're right, instead they're pretending that business models will be ripped apart while in reality businesses move on as life goes on. Businesses evolve.
    Evolution is a slow process. It doesn't deal well with catastrophes.

    Those usually come under the heading of "extinction event". You may want to ask the dinosaurs how well they "evolved".
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  26. #2516
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    How will they store 6 weeks worth of medicines for the entire country?
    Congratulations America

  27. #2517
    Quote Originally Posted by Hazir View Post
    How will they store 6 weeks worth of medicines for the entire country?
    Latest reports suggest they'll use software and other technology including patriotism and a can-do attitude. Knitting may also be involved.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  28. #2518
    Quote Originally Posted by Hazir View Post
    How will they store 6 weeks worth of medicines for the entire country?
    Gee disaster-preparedness with you in charge would be a nightmare. God forbid how we'd react in the event of some actual catastrophe or war when storing 6 weeks worth of medicines with 6 months notice is unthinkable

    I see the BBC's current headline from Project Fear is that credit card surcharges may rise. Oh the horrors, the unmitigated horrors. What have we done? Is it too late to back out?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  29. #2519
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    I see. So, you obviously are a DailyMail fan because you only go by the headlines.

    Also, storing medicine is not an easy feat. My brother's girlfriend who is an pharmacist might tell you a bit about it. Storing six weeks of supplies for a whole country?

    That's not easily done.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  30. #2520
    I know you're German but seriously could you not tell that was a joke?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

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