Brexit Begins

[Hazir]

No that's scaremongering bullshit. People adapt.

That fisherman can sell to a different market or can sell frozen or can sell domestically or ... Etc

People who want to earn a living adapt better than people like you give them credit for.

Yes people adapt, even to their livelihood being destroyed. But that doesn't make destroying their livelihood just for your dogmatism a good thing. But we really weren't talking about that; we were talking about the choice between things going on as usual or things going topsy turvy overnight as a basis for your future plans.

As for the fisherman finding new markets; you don't eat the fish they catch, all other markets have the same tariffs on fish as we have. Because WTO.

[Khendraja'aro]

Only a number of weeks now until Project Fear gets revealed to be bollocks Khen.

COVID will do far more disruption than Brexit ever could.

Dude, say, you have a logistics company whose main business is doing exports to the EU. And you think those will not be hit? Seriously?

And that's just one example.

[RandBlade]

Dude, say, you have a logistics company whose main business is doing exports to the EU. And you think those will not be hit? Seriously?

And that's just one example.

I could do a plethora of hypotheticals.

Yes people will have to adjust. But if people are exporting to the EU they are still going to export post-Brexit. We already trade with the rest of the world too - the EU isn't some hermetically sealed pariah bloc cut away from non-member states.

[Khendraja'aro]

I could do a plethora of hypotheticals.

Yes people will have to adjust. But if people are exporting to the EU they are still going to export post-Brexit. We already trade with the rest of the world too - the EU isn't some hermetically sealed pariah bloc cut away from non-member states.

You have no clue as to what the actual problem is. Figured as much.

I'm just a bit annoyed at the thought that you are not personally afflicted by your asinine position. Of course it's great if you yourself don't have to suffer the consequences.

"Adjusting" is nice when your company tells you: "Well, we have to downsize and now you're out of a job." But I'm sure you won't count that as "affecting the livelihood". Do you think jobs grow on trees or what?

[RandBlade]

In your eyes what percentage of employees are going to get that message from their company across the UK specifically due to Brexit?

50%?
25%?
10%?
1%?
0.1%?

Or something else?

[Hazir]

In your eyes what percentage of employees are going to get that message from their company across the UK specifically due to Brexit?

50%?
25%?
10%?
1%?
0.1%?

Or something else?

What's so interesting is that brexitards are only interested in telling us how brexit won't have any negative effects, but they can't come up with anything better as a positive result than a lie of Soy sauce becoming cheaper.

[Khendraja'aro]

In your eyes what percentage of employees are going to get that message from their company across the UK specifically due to Brexit?

50%?
25%?
10%?
1%?
0.1%?

Or something else?

I'll point you towards something you said (since you're so apt at forgetting what you yourself stated):

People's livelihoods won't be wrecked by Brexit though.

That is an absolute statement. According to your own statement the number will be 0%.

It's not me who's pulling numbers from his ass here, Rand. You are.

Have you looked at the numbers of jobs either lost or moved at several banks? Those numbers do not equal "zero". Banks are just the most prominent examples (and the easiest to attribute Brexit to).

Here's a nice compilation. Not saying that it's completely correct but even if it's only 10% of the number stated, that's still not "Zero", Rand.

https://smallbusinessprices.co.uk/brexit-index/

[Hazir]

Only 62 days to go.

[RandBlade]

I'll point you towards something you said (since you're so apt at forgetting what you yourself stated):



That is an absolute statement. According to your own statement the number will be 0%.

It's not me who's pulling numbers from his ass here, Rand. You are.

Have you looked at the numbers of jobs either lost or moved at several banks? Those numbers do not equal "zero". Banks are just the most prominent examples (and the easiest to attribute Brexit to).

Here's a nice compilation. Not saying that it's completely correct but even if it's only 10% of the number stated, that's still not "Zero", Rand.

https://smallbusinessprices.co.uk/brexit-index/

I never said 0%. There is such a thing as the exception to the rule, that is well understood. In general what I said will be true for the vast majority though of course there can always be exceptions that should go without saying for anyone intelligent. So try again.

[Hazir]

I never said 0%. There is such a thing as the exception to the rule, that is well understood. In general what I said will be true for the vast majority though of course there can always be exceptions that should go without saying for anyone intelligent. So try again.

For someone who had his own business you have incredibly little understanding how narrow profit margins can be.

[Khendraja'aro]

I never said 0%.

You said: "People's livelihoods won't be wrecked by Brexit though." That's equivalent to 0%.

Not my problem if your command of your own language is abysmal.

400,000 is a bit bigger than "nothing", by the way.

[RandBlade]

Your understanding of statistics seems to be what is abysmal, 400k is a rounding error.

9% of the UK's workforce change jobs on average every year. Source: ONS.

[Flixy]

There is a difference between losing your job and changing jobs of course. And a difference between changing jobs voluntarily, or because you have to.

[RandBlade]

Of course. Though much of that 9% will not be voluntary.

The point is that some churn is entirely natural.

[Flixy]

Again, churn is not the same as jobs disappearing.
Edit: nvm, looked up what churn means, turns out to be different than what I thought, so disregard that

Note that I did not really follow the discussion and have no clue about the numbers, but just wanted to point out that changing jobs is not really a good number to compare with.

[RandBlade]

Its not perfect but it is a comparator. If you or Khen have a better one I'd be curious what it is?

[Flixy]

Normally I'd say look at overall employment, but since covid happening at the same time I honestly don't think you can really separate the effects.

I suppose if you want to look at banking specifically you can look at the number of people employed in that sector, since I don't think that sector is affected a lot by covid (yet). And maybe, if possible, trends in that sector over the past years. Even then it's hard to determine cause and effect though.

Or you know, stop arguing with each other about numbers that don't mean so much without context anyway Because I lost the point that either of you are trying to make with these numbers. But I'm sure both of you can find numbers supporting your own side.

PS I also didn't look at Khen's source for 400k job losses, so no idea how they get there and whether it's significant (or bullshit).

[Khendraja'aro]

The point is that he argued that the number is zero. Which is obviously BS.

He's also ignoring knock-on effects. If a car factory is shut down the ancillary companies (logistics, subcontractors, feeder companies,...) will also be hit.

Oh, and Rand, before you whine again about "implications" and "everybody understands that".

Nope. Not playing that game. I'm going by what you explicitly stated, not some "Guess What!" bullshit you then can try to twist to your liking so you can make yourself out to be the big prophet or something.

[RandBlade]

I never said zero, you put that number on it not me.

I said something that is true in general, not exhaustively 100% of the time.

[Khendraja'aro]

Make absolute statements, get absolute numbers.

"People's livelihoods won't be wrecked by Brexit though." means "Zero".

Learn your language.

[RandBlade]

No it doesn't. Generalities mean in general not all the time.

[Khendraja'aro]

Yeah, only that 400,000 people are not really an inconsequential number.

Unless you're now willing to state that "People's lives won't be taken by Covid though"?

See how stupid that is?

[RandBlade]

Most people's won't be.

There's no exponential growth with the problems with Brexit.

[Hazir]

There is a difference between losing your job and changing jobs of course. And a difference between changing jobs voluntarily, or because you have to.

Or being made redundant because some fanatics have an idea of sovereignty that's straight out of the 18th century.

[RandBlade]

Less than 2 months to go until all your predictions of doom evaporate.

[Hazir]

Haha, the signs for a no-deal departure are good indeed.

I never said you wouldn't trade by the way. I merely said it would be at much worse terms and that the damage would not be ofset by more freedom to set your own rules. For a significant number of your businesses it will no longer be worth to continue on those terms.

[RandBlade]

We'll see.

And the lack of talk from Barnier lately makes me think a deal looks increasingly likely. The negotiations seem to have become serious and it seems like they are in 'the tunnel' now.

[Timbuk2]

Less than 2 months to go until all your predictions of doom evaporate.

With banks having now left London, my predictions of doom from day 1 of Brexit have already come to pass.

All this talk of trade deals is little crumbs for ants in terms of the wealth now lost to the UK.

[Hazir]

With banks having now left London, my predictions of doom from day 1 of Brexit have already come to pass.

All this talk of trade deals is little crumbs for ants in terms of the wealth now lost to the UK.

But soy sauce won't be more expensive! That's a big win innit?

And shouldn't we wish De Pfeffel extra plus double good luck with his negotiations with the US? Especially since my pessimism of earlier seems to be unwarranted and we'll have a Biden administration early next year?

[RandBlade]

Reality catching up with Carole Codswallop. The courts comprehensively dismissed her conspiracy theories, she continued to spread them and now even she has to accept reality.

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