Don’t panic! We’ll deal with no deal
Ministers’ plans to keep homes and industry running if Britain crashes out of the EU are patchy and sometimes alarming
Tim Shipman, Mark Hookham
July 29 2018, 12:01am, The Sunday Times

Plans agreed at the Chequers cabinet summit to publish reports every week through the summer detailing what a “no-deal Brexit” would mean for Britain have been scrapped — after warnings that the public would panic and never vote Conservative again.
Downing Street sources confirmed last night that a series of papers advising businesses, homeowners, farmers, hauliers and holidaymakers how to prepare are now likely to be published on the same day in late August, rather than dripped out over a period of six weeks.
The change of plan highlights the seething rivalries and, at times, troubling details of Brexit preparation. The no-deal publication plan was originally designed to placate Brexiteers, who were keen to show Brussels the UK was ready to walk away. But this weekend they accused civil servants of plotting a new “Project Fear” campaign which threatened to turn MPs and voters against Brexit altogether.
An investigation by The Sunday Times has found that government preparations for a no-deal scenario, in which the UK left the EU without a trade deal, are both patchy and, in some regards, hair-raising.
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“There are three things here: drawing up plans for the work that needed to be done,” said a Brexit department source, “implementing the plans by hiring staff and putting the IT systems in place; and, thirdly, talking about the plans. We’ve done lots of the first, a little of the second and almost none of the third.”
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As The Sunday Times revealed in June, the risk assessments of what might happen in the event of a no-deal Brexit are alarming, with shortages of fuel and medicines likely in remote areas and ministers discussing the stockpiling of food.
The contingency planning also includes calling in the army to help communities suffering critical shortages.
A minister said: “You would have to use all your services to provide essential supplies to people. The elderly and vulnerable would be in a difficult position. It will be the end of March but it might still be cold. You’ve got to think about the energy supply and keeping the lights on.”
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In the NHS, bosses are planning to put the health service on a permanent winter-crisis footing. A senior source said: “We line up non-EU sources of drugs and stockpile drugs in preparation for a winter crisis, so we can use the same model to deal with no-deal Brexit.”
There are also concerns about the shelf-life of medicines which cross borders. Leaving Euratom, the EU nuclear materials regulator, could create problems for the supply of cancer drugs. Sir Michael Rawlins, chairman of the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency, has warned that insulin for diabetics could be in short supply.
Mike Thompson, chief executive of the Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry, said one company was having to revalidate their supply chain for ingredients for 15,000 medicines because the ingredients come from abroad. He added: “Half of the medicines approved across Europe last year require a specific temperature control right through the supply chain. They cannot be stuck at borders for too long. One medicine has only got a half-life of 11 days.”
Some of the most noticeable consequences of no deal would come at the borders. Plans for emergency lorry parks on the M20 and M26 and the disused Manston airfield in Kent are “unworkable” and could lead to “public disorder”, it has been claimed.
If customs checks are imposed, 10,000 lorries a day could be affected. The plan to use Manston has alarmed freight companies and port managers. One source said parking lorries at the airport was “nuts” and “just won’t work” since those released from Manston would have to snake their way to Dover along a 19-mile stretch of the A256, which has 12 roundabouts and in parts is a single carriageway. “If you start to move high volumes of freight down that route, it will be come snarled very, very quickly,” said the source. Between 400 and 500 lorries an hour need to arrive in Dover to fill the ferries and keep them to schedule. Just 80 an hour could get there from Manston.
Lorries attempting to dodge the queues would be ordered to the back of the queue or to Manston, creating flashpoints. In 2015, some lorry drivers drove their vehicles at police officers in an attempt to force their way into the port.
Meanwhile, questions are mounting over how the Border Force at Heathrow and other airports would cope. Passengers at Heathrow have been forced to wait on aircraft and held up for three hours to have their passports checked. A Border Force source said: “If we cannot cope with queues this summer, how will we cope in March 2019 and a crash-out?”
The government has demanded that companies and industry groups involved in Brexit planning sign non-disclosure agreements in an attempt to prevent alarming details leaking out.
That explains why the plan to publicise no-deal preparations throughout the summer has been canned. The original plan was scrapped after a meeting last week chaired by Philip Rycroft, the senior mandarin in the Brexit department. A source said: “People will shit themselves and think they want a new referendum or an election or think the Tory party shouldn’t govern again. MPs are saying: ‘If this is done badly, it could hurt us like sleaze did in the 1990s.’”
The prospects of a no-deal departure are troubling civil servants, who expect to be blamed for failing to get the country ready. Staff working for Robbins plan to jump ship at the end of the year.
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STOCKPILED DRUGS AND FOOD: PREPARING FOR THE WORST
Small businesses
Up to 250,000 small firms will be asked to start making customs declarations in a dry run for Brexit
Armed forces
On standby to assist in delivering fuel, food and medicines to far-flung communities
Supermarkets
Warning suppliers to begin stockpiling products to prevent shortages in big stores
NHS Hospitals
to go on a year-round winter crisis footing with stockpiled drugs and others sourced from outside the EU
Farming
A new IT system is in place to make payments to rural landowners once EU subsidies cease. Thousands more staff have been recruited. But there are fears about animal and food exports being disrupted
Freight Vehicles
bound for Channel ports and the tunnel will queue in lorry parks on the M20, M26 and at Manston airport in Kent. An estimated 10,000 lorries a day passing through the ports could require customs checks
Channel ports
There is no space at the port of Dover for extra lorry parking. It currently takes an average of two minutes to process each lorry. Increasing that figure by another two minutes would create a 17-mile queue
Airports Passengers
are already queuing for up to three hours at Heathrow to have passports checked. The Home Office is recruiting another 1,300 Border Force staff to cope