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Thread: UK Election 8th of June

  1. #31
    ======== Timbuk2's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Subscription needed.
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    It's actually the original French billion, which is bi-million, which is a million to the power of 2. We adopted the word, and then they changed it, presumably as revenge for Crecy and Agincourt, and then the treasonous Americans adopted the new French usage and spread it all over the world. And now we have to use it.

    And that's Why I'm Voting Leave.

  2. #32
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Weird, I don't have one and its not asking for one for me.

    If you search on Google for The diary of a Labour strategist: a master plan for poll success then click the link on the news page it should bypass the paywall. The FT have a weird arrangement with Google that if Google takes you to the page then Google pays them to do so, so no subscription is needed. So any FT article can be found by just Googling its title normally.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  3. #33
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Polls are getting hilarious now I can't remember an election like this and we haven't even dissolved Parliament yet. Closest thing I can imagine is if Blair had gone for an election while we still had IDS in which case I suspect I would have gone red.

    More confirmation if it were needed though that my RIP UKIP thread was not premature. UKIP are a dead and buried busted flush now that is going from BNP in Blazers to just pure BNP. With a vote share to match it. Back down in single fingers and I wouldn't be surprised if they fail to hit 5% in June. Good riddance.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  4. #34
    All Worship Ragnarök Loki's Avatar
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    Did you miss the part where the best BNP showing ever was <2%?
    Hope is the denial of reality

  5. #35
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    The combined BNP and BNP in Blazers vote in 2010 (before UKIP surged following the Lib Dems entering the coalition) was 5.0%
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  6. #36
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    IPSOS-MORI: Con 49 (+6), Lab 26 (-4), LD 13 (nc), UKIP 4 (down 2).

    Polls traditionally overstate Labour and underestimate the Tories. I'm not expecting it, but it's possible that the Tories will get an outright majority of votes cast in England if not the whole of Britain. Not that there's many more purples left to squeeze.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  7. #37
    All Worship Ragnarök Loki's Avatar
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    Possible? The Tories were polling at 49% in England when they were polling 42% nationally. Now they're polling ~48% nationally.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  8. #38
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    If something sounds too good to be true it probably is. 49% in an opinion poll sounds too good to be true. It could be (and if it is then yes we would get a majority of England) but I would be amazed if we really do get 49%.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  9. #39
    All Worship Ragnarök Loki's Avatar
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    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...election,_2017

    The last 3 polls give the Tories 48-49% (mostly at the expense of UKIP).
    Hope is the denial of reality

  10. #40
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    You take polls as seriously as a religious fanatic takes gospel. I don't.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  11. #41
    All Worship Ragnarök Loki's Avatar
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    I notice that you haven't said a thing about French polls, which were nearly perfect in a 5-way race. The polls for the 2015 general election were off by a whole 3%.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  12. #42
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Because the French pollsters have an excellent record, unlike many other pollsters in the last few years including ours.

    A 3% error this year is the difference between a decent majority, a landslide and an unprecedented epoch shattering annihilation. That's before taking into account that there are still about six weeks to go.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  13. #43
    All Worship Ragnarök Loki's Avatar
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    Um, what? 3% would be the difference between the Tories getting 48% and 45%. Both of which would be a landslide.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  14. #44
    Local talking head LittleFuzzy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    I notice that you haven't said a thing about French polls, which were nearly perfect in a 5-way race. The polls for the 2015 general election were off by a whole 3%.
    And you seem oddly reticent to bring up the polling for the US Presidential election.
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

  15. #45
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    Um, what? 3% would be the difference between the Tories getting 48% and 45%. Both of which would be a landslide.
    45% which is what the most recent poll gives would put us on 381 seats. In comparison Blair got 418 and 413 in his landslide victories of 97 and 01.

    Take 3% from there and you've got 42% and 32% for Labour which would by UNS give a majority of 44. Disappointing from here.

    48/26 would give us a landslide of Blair style proportions

    51/23 would set a post-war record and in fact beat all records since universal suffrage apart from the surely impossible to ever recreate 1931 I believe.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  16. #46
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    And why should anybody actually care? The only thing that this elections are about anyway is Brexit, and that will be mostly dictated by people you can't vote for.
    Greece shows us that there is a kind of politician worse than the ones that break their election promises; the ones that keep their election promises.

  17. #47
    All Worship Ragnarök Loki's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LittleFuzzy View Post
    And you seem oddly reticent to bring up the polling for the US Presidential election.
    The national polls were wrong by 1%.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  18. #48
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    And the state polls?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  19. #49
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hazir View Post
    And why should anybody actually care? The only thing that this elections are about anyway is Brexit, and that will be mostly dictated by[negotiated with] people you can't vote for.
    Fixed it for you. We can't elect those we negotiate with of course but we can elect who is best suited to represent our side in the negotiations. Do we want to be represented by May or Corbyn?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  20. #50
    Local talking head LittleFuzzy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Fixed it for you. We can't elect those we negotiate with of course but we can elect who is best suited to represent our side in the negotiations. Do we want to be represented by May or Corbyn?
    You have to remember, this is Hazir. It doesn't matter who you have negotiating for you, in his opinion, because everything will simply be as decided through dictat by acclamation from the European side. The Brits might as well not exist as far as Hazir is willing to grant people a role in Brexit.
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

  21. #51
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LittleFuzzy View Post
    You have to remember, this is Hazir. It doesn't matter who you have negotiating for you, in his opinion, because everything will simply be as decided through dictat by acclamation from the European side. The Brits might as well not exist as far as Hazir is willing to grant people a role in Brexit.
    That reads like it should be an exaggeration but it's sadly not..
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  22. #52
    Resiste et Mords! Steely Glint's Avatar
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    The polls in the UK have a history of underestimating the Tories. It's really quite pronounced when you look back over previous elections. If the polls are wrong, they're likely to have underestimated the scope of May's victory, rather than overestimate it. With Scotland now completely out of play, Labour are going to be reduced to a smoking crater. May will have free reign to do whatever the fuck she likes with Brexit and anything else.

    Such is the folly of purity politics, Jeremy.
    The walls are coming down.
    All we need is one to fail, one to break, one to take it all away.
    What if we crumble, what if we fall? Where's the flame that torch the soul?
    Truth, when spoken, dies down to nothing.

  23. #53
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    It's a shame the Liberals are dead, it would be good for the nation for Labour to die. A party on one side of the spectrum can only be replaced by another party on the same side of the spectrum, that's why no matter how bad the Tories did they would eventually have a comeback as the Lib Dems could never be a true centre-right party and UKIP were fruitcakes.

    If the Lib Dems were still alive or if saner Labour MPs had the balls to leave Corbyn and set up SDP MkII then it could have been possible to displace Labour. Instead they'll get humiliated but like after 1983 they will recover eventually.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  24. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by LittleFuzzy View Post
    You have to remember, this is Hazir. It doesn't matter who you have negotiating for you, in his opinion, because everything will simply be as decided through dictat by acclamation from the European side. The Brits might as well not exist as far as Hazir is willing to grant people a role in Brexit.
    Unlike you I bother to inform myself about the process that is about to start. In that process it will be irrelevant if the UK has a minority government or a one party parliament. They will take any deal they can get because no deal will damage them so much that jumping of a cliff would seem like a mercy next to it.
    Greece shows us that there is a kind of politician worse than the ones that break their election promises; the ones that keep their election promises.

  25. #55
    Resiste et Mords! Steely Glint's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    It's a shame the Liberals are dead, it would be good for the nation for Labour to die. A party on one side of the spectrum can only be replaced by another party on the same side of the spectrum, that's why no matter how bad the Tories did they would eventually have a comeback as the Lib Dems could never be a true centre-right party and UKIP were fruitcakes.

    If the Lib Dems were still alive or if saner Labour MPs had the balls to leave Corbyn and set up SDP MkII then it could have been possible to displace Labour. Instead they'll get humiliated but like after 1983 they will recover eventually.
    The Lib Dems have no power base. The Tories have the rural middle class and bankers, Labour have the working class in the north and Londoners, the Lib Dems have... me and a few other people around the place? There's really no large block of core Lib Dem voters, and what there is too inefficiently distributed around the country to be effective. That is why without a) some pretty significant social and demographic changes and b) the end of first past the post, the Lib Dems will never be anything but a third party.
    The walls are coming down.
    All we need is one to fail, one to break, one to take it all away.
    What if we crumble, what if we fall? Where's the flame that torch the soul?
    Truth, when spoken, dies down to nothing.

  26. #56
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Although still early (disappointingly many Councils are starting their count today instead of last night) and complicated by local factors, the Local Election 2017 results so far are looking encouraging. Worth noting that the 2017 local elections cover mainly Shire councils so have a pro-Tory basis already as well as being the record best ever performance by UKIP when these were last held in 2013.

    After 10 of 34 Councils declared:
    Conservative 9
    No Overall Control (NOC) 1

    Seats:
    Conservative: 433 (+105)
    Liberal Democrat 101 (-9)
    Labour 69 (-45)
    Independent 34 (-15)
    Green 10 (+5)
    Residents' Association 1 (-2)
    UKIP 0 (-39)

    Wonder if anyone on this forum ever wrote RIP UKIP and was accused of being premature for writing that?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  27. #57
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Unprecedented gains from a party of government, can't remember anything like this in my lifetime:

    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  28. #58
    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    Jesus Christ what an epic turnout. Shining bacon of democracy
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  29. #59
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    I've never cared about low turnout, so long as everyone who is entitled to vote is able to do so - if people don't bother it's because they don't care not because they couldn't. If they don't care, I don't care.

    Though these are local elections and turnout was above expectations. General Election turnout will be more than double this.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  30. #60
    All Worship Ragnarök Loki's Avatar
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    That's a hell of a lot SNP seats.
    Hope is the denial of reality

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