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Thread: French election

  1. #61
    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    Curious, the alt-leavers were responsible for a 4% boost on spending by the opponents of those who wished to Remain as well as reinforcing their shared anti-immigration message.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
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  2. #62
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Indeed just 4% not remotely comparable. Incidentally Leave.EU was just one of many tertiary groups with their own spending limit, there were others like Labour Leave etc not to forget the political parties that had limits closer to the official campaign limits than these tertiary groups.

    The idea Leave.EU was remotely in the lead or seriously responsible for 52% of the electorate is a total fallacy unsupported by all documented evidence.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  3. #63
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Indeed just 4% not remotely comparable. Incidentally Leave.EU was just one of many tertiary groups with their own spending limit, there were others like Labour Leave etc not to forget the political parties that had limits closer to the official campaign limits than these tertiary groups.

    The idea Leave.EU was remotely in the lead or seriously responsible for 52% of the electorate is a total fallacy unsupported by all documented evidence.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  4. #64
    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    Didn't you clowns beat the forces of light by something like 4%?
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
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  5. #65
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    4% of the country, not 4% of the leave vote. Take away an added 4% of the leave vote and the forces of democracy would have still won by about 600,000 votes.

    Though even if it was 10% it would not change the fact that leave != that fringe. Hold extremists to account by themselves without tarnishing everyone on a binary divide, that would be like me tarnishing all left wingers for the actions of Stalin and Pol Pot.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  6. #66
    Resiste et Mords! Steely Glint's Avatar
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    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Do..._2016webV4.pdf

    Page 30. Immigration ranked the most important issue amongst leave voters at 54%, followed by sovereignty (~30%), followed by some other categories to do with immigration (cost to the welfare system and asylum. Note that respondents could choose more than one thing, so you can't add them to the 54%).

    Another example. The British election survey asked open ended questions about people's reasons for voting the way they did, then make some word clouds from the answers. The leaver word cloud is fairly striking.

    http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/...eu-referendum/


    In fairness, there are other surveys and polls out there that rank sovereignty ahead of immigration (i.e. the Ashcroft one). Those are the two consistent themes of Brexit.

    'Free trade' doesn't get a look in anywhere, though. The idea that Brexit had anything to do with free trade is outright fantasy.
    To ends unknown, by means unworthy, to answer wishes long dead and gone
    Old, empty promises, a just reward for the blind
    Belief makes work for idle minds
    The only dream that matters is the one you wake up from

  7. #67
    Resiste et Mords! Steely Glint's Avatar
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    Also, open question aimed at Randblade.

    Hypothetical scenario: before the vote, the leaders of the vote leave campaign, make the follow announcement:

    "If the result of the referendum is that the UK should leave the European Union, our first priority in negotiations about the terms of our exit will be to ensure the European Union to ensure the current arrangements about free movement of people remain in place, so that we can retain access to the single market. We will also seek trade deals with other economic powers such as the United States and China. But free movement is definitely staying, so don't worry about that."

    The Tory party confirms this will indeed be government policy while they're in power. Labour says they'd probably do the same thing in government.

    What do you think the result would have been?
    To ends unknown, by means unworthy, to answer wishes long dead and gone
    Old, empty promises, a just reward for the blind
    Belief makes work for idle minds
    The only dream that matters is the one you wake up from

  8. #68
    Local talking head LittleFuzzy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    Didn't you clowns beat the forces of light by something like 4%?
    Your implication is fallacious. You can't divide the people who voted one way into groups and claim that one group was responsible for the result rather than the other groups unless that one group had sufficient #s to win all on their own. You can maybe discount a group if their total contribution was less than the margin of victory (it would be a rather shaky claim but depending on the exact context you might be able to justify it) but that's really the most you can do with divvying up vote totals and assigning responsibility.
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

  9. #69
    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    Did you see me saying that the rest of the Leave voters were not responsible?
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  10. #70
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    Also, open question aimed at Randblade.

    Hypothetical scenario: before the vote, the leaders of the vote leave campaign, make the follow announcement:

    "If the result of the referendum is that the UK should leave the European Union, our first priority in negotiations about the terms of our exit will be to ensure the European Union to ensure the current arrangements about free movement of people remain in place, so that we can retain access to the single market. We will also seek trade deals with other economic powers such as the United States and China. But free movement is definitely staying, so don't worry about that."

    The Tory party confirms this will indeed be government policy while they're in power. Labour says they'd probably do the same thing in government.

    What do you think the result would have been?
    Probably similar to the Scottish Indyref: 45-55 to Remain. Hence why Vote Leave explicitly ruled out staying in the Single Market, which nearly made me switch back to Remain but was insufficient to do so.

    However that's neither here nor there, I never said immigration didn't play a role in the debate, but it was not exclusive (most surveys did indeed put my concern of sovereignty top). There was a world of difference though between the proper leave campaign's arguments about immigration being a subject we can control ourselves to the wild rampant racism of the Kippers like their despicable "Breaking Point" poster. A poster that was not even a leave poster, it was a UKIP one and was denounced by leavers.

    Since you've tried to sidetrack the discussion though I'm assuming you accept for future reference that Leave.EU were a peripheral organisation and not the Leave campaign? It was the plaything of Aaron Banks and Nigel Farage.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  11. #71
    Local talking head LittleFuzzy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    Did you see me saying that the rest of the Leave voters were not responsible?

    "Your implication"

    Because otherwise your post was nothing but white noise.
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

  12. #72
    Resiste et Mords! Steely Glint's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Since you've tried to sidetrack the discussion though I'm assuming you accept for future reference that Leave.EU were a peripheral organisation and not the Leave campaign? It was the plaything of Aaron Banks and Nigel Farage.
    No, as I don't accept your premise that monies raised for the campaign the sole arbiter of how influential or important they were - for example, check out some online metrics such as twitter followers, facebook likes or google presence etc for leave.eu vs vote leave or, indeed, any other group on either side to get an idea of how 'peripheral' they were (SPOILERS: leave.eu wipes their ass with everyone).

    However, I cannot actually be bothered to do enough research to actual prove this (i.e. checking how many mentions they got in media stories and so on) one way or another, and it is not necessary to disprove the notion that Brexit was nothing to do with immigration and everything to do with free trader when we have straight forward poll data saying immigration was a very important issue for leave voters and no one gives a shit about free trade.

    In short, in terms of the generla body Brexiters, you're more of a fringe than UKIP.
    To ends unknown, by means unworthy, to answer wishes long dead and gone
    Old, empty promises, a just reward for the blind
    Belief makes work for idle minds
    The only dream that matters is the one you wake up from

  13. #73
    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LittleFuzzy View Post
    "Your implication"

    Because otherwise your post was nothing but white noise.
    Both groups were responsible and the impact of the smaller group cannot be trivialized.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  14. #74
    Local talking head LittleFuzzy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    Both groups were responsible and the impact of the smaller group cannot be trivialized.
    It can't be generalized either. If you want to do that, you're going to have to approach from a different direction and with different kinds of data sets. Like the ones Steely used.
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

  15. #75
    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LittleFuzzy View Post
    It can't be generalized either. If you want to do that, you're going to have to approach from a different direction and with different kinds of data sets. Like the ones Steely used.
    That approach has been has been taken many times by all of us over the course of this particular multi-thread conversation and I have no reason to believe RB will be any more receptive to it today than he was several months ago. RB is trying to pretend that the impact of the anti-immigration campaign and anti-immigration voters was small, and we know that he rejects the evidence that shows that impact to be large, so I'm more interested now in making a case for that small impact being consequential. I most certainly do not believe that the Leav.EU campaign is the most important reason they won. They won because the mainstream incorporated the xenophobic anti-immigration ideas of the so-called "fringe" and the voters totally dug that.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  16. #76
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    No, as I don't accept your premise that monies raised for the campaign the sole arbiter of how influential or important they were - for example, check out some online metrics such as twitter followers, facebook likes or google presence etc for leave.eu vs vote leave or, indeed, any other group on either side to get an idea of how 'peripheral' they were (SPOILERS: leave.eu wipes their ass with everyone).


    You can not be serious. This may be news to you but twitter is not the country. If Twitter was representative of anything other than how many obnoxious arseholes like to chat shit to each other then there would never have been a referendum as Prime Minister Miliband wouldn't have held the referendum, though Leader of the Opposition Farage would still be pushing for one since his party pushed the Tories into a distant third place in 2015. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/gene...gn-battle.html

    Except back in the real world the Tories won the election and didn't come third
    However, I cannot actually be bothered to do enough research to actual prove this (i.e. checking how many mentions they got in media stories and so on) one way or another, and it is not necessary to disprove the notion that Brexit was nothing to do with immigration and everything to do with free trader when we have straight forward poll data saying immigration was a very important issue for leave voters and no one gives a shit about free trade.

    In short, in terms of the generla body Brexiters, you're more of a fringe than UKIP.
    Except I never said it had nothing to do with immigration, I said it had nothing to do with protectionism or the rampant racism of Le Pen.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  17. #77
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    That approach has been has been taken many times by all of us over the course of this particular multi-thread conversation and I have no reason to believe RB will be any more receptive to it today than he was several months ago. RB is trying to pretend that the impact of the anti-immigration campaign and anti-immigration voters was small, and we know that he rejects the evidence that shows that impact to be large, so I'm more interested now in making a case for that small impact being consequential. I most certainly do not believe that the Leav.EU campaign is the most important reason they won. They won because the mainstream incorporated the xenophobic anti-immigration ideas of the so-called "fringe" and the voters totally dug that.
    No, I'm claiming validly that they weren't the mainstream. Source required please on mainstream xenophobia, unless you think all arguments over migration are xenophobic.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  18. #78
    Local talking head LittleFuzzy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    That approach has been has been taken many times by all of us over the course of this particular multi-thread conversation and I have no reason to believe RB will be any more receptive to it today than he was several months ago. RB is trying to pretend that the impact of the anti-immigration campaign and anti-immigration voters was small, and we know that he rejects the evidence that shows that impact to be large, so I'm more interested now in making a case for that small impact being consequential. I most certainly do not believe that the Leav.EU campaign is the most important reason they won. They won because the mainstream incorporated the xenophobic anti-immigration ideas of the so-called "fringe" and the voters totally dug that.
    Note I did not say I thought Steely was right, I said that was the valid approach to use, while yours veers toward fallacy-territory.
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

  19. #79
    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LittleFuzzy View Post
    Note I did not say I thought Steely was right, I said that was the valid approach to use, while yours veers toward fallacy-territory.
    It is the only appropriate approach to take when engaging a person who can't seem to decide whether or not he thinks a few percentage points matter in close elections.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  20. #80
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    I never said a few percentage points doesn't matter. I said a few percentage points doesn't make a majority. It is the majority that matters.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  21. #81
    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    *snort* Except when it's a non-representative plurality that matters, or when it's the margin that matters, or when it's the glorious leader that matters
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  22. #82
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Why would they matter here?

    It's redundant to refer to a plurality if a majority exists.
    Last edited by RandBlade; 05-10-2017 at 09:05 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  23. #83
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Based on the new Steely Glint Law of Social Media Equals Popularity (TM) it seems that we are about to have an unprecedented Labour Landslide in our forthcoming election. Jeremy Corbyn has more than twice as many likes on Facebook than Theresa May and since a Facebook like or Twitter follow is all that matters in our glorious new Steely Glint universe it seems we will replace Prime Minister Miliband with an even more popular Prime Minister Corbyn and a Labour army who "wipes their ass with everyone".

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-39856464
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  24. #84
    Resiste et Mords! Steely Glint's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post


    You can not be serious. This may be news to you but twitter is not the country. If Twitter was representative of anything other than how many obnoxious arseholes like to chat shit to each other then there would never have been a referendum as Prime Minister Miliband wouldn't have held the referendum, though Leader of the Opposition Farage would still be pushing for one since his party pushed the Tories into a distant third place in 2015. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/gene...gn-battle.html

    Except back in the real world the Tories won the election and didn't come third
    By the token, Randblade, your spending = popularity metric should tell us that Brexit never happened and Hillary Clinton is president.

    Except I never said it had nothing to do with immigration, I said it had nothing to do with protectionism or the rampant racism of Le Pen.
    *Ron Howard narrator voice*

    He did say Brexit had nothing to do with immigration.
    To ends unknown, by means unworthy, to answer wishes long dead and gone
    Old, empty promises, a just reward for the blind
    Belief makes work for idle minds
    The only dream that matters is the one you wake up from

  25. #85
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    Or that money accounted for = money spent on the campaign.
    Greece shows us that there is a kind of politician worse than the ones that break their election promises; the ones that keep their election promises.

  26. #86
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    To spend money and not account for it would be a crime.

    I never said spending = popularity, I said that Vote Leave was the leave leadership and by all reasonable metrics it was. It was legally, it was by expenditure, it was by airtime. I can not think of a single reasonable metric where it wasn't - and no a social media echo chamber is not a reasonable metric.

    As for Ron Howard, if I said that then it will be written down and easy to quote so to quote my daughter's favourite Ron Howard show *Man in a Yellow Hat voice* 'be a good little money' and why not find that quote because I'm curious where I did.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  27. #87
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    You don't say so. Who will land in prison then if illegal funding is established? Does it have an effect of the validity of the referendum? Or the legitimacy of May's off-the-cuff Brexit?
    Greece shows us that there is a kind of politician worse than the ones that break their election promises; the ones that keep their election promises.

  28. #88
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    The Electoral Commission, police and CPS would all be involved if there were evidence of wrongdoing.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  29. #89
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    None of that answers my questions.

    But just for the heck of it ; do these people also take into account funds spent outside your borders? Because I do know for a fact that your PM is awfully worried about interference from the EU, but I don't get the idea she's very worried about Kremlin interference or the role of shady companies in Canada.
    Greece shows us that there is a kind of politician worse than the ones that break their election promises; the ones that keep their election promises.

  30. #90
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    I doubt it.

    I've not seen any evidence of shady interference by the Kremlin or Canada but if there was any then that would most likely be a diplomatic issue rather than a legal one I would imagine.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

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