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Thread: The odd man out in the Gulf?

  1. #1

    Default The odd man out in the Gulf?

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-40155829

    I think this is actually pretty interesting news, even though it might just be posturing - certainly the current moves regarding Qatari visitors to several of the countries in question as well as airlines shifting routes away from Qatar suggest that they might be serious. Qatar has always been a little unusual in the Gulf; they have a pretty active foreign policy on a number of fronts: running al Jazeera, financially supporting a variety of Muslim Brotherhood-related organizations (including the old Egyptian government and Hamas), and having a pretty interventionist military stance (e.g. Yemen and Libya). That's not so crazy - after all, UAE/Saudi/Egypt also have their own brand of interventional policy (Bahrain less so). But Qatar has shown it is willing to go alone, often bucking against the wishes of the biggest Gulf patron (the US) and wading into pretty complex situations without much coordination (e.g. Libya).

    The Saudis and Egyptians, on the other hand, tend to stay local in their interventions and then coordinate with the US to some extent (e.g. Yemen). The UAE is even more distinct; they have cultivated a very high end military capability and have developed a close relationship with the US through substantial deployments in Afghanistan and a very active role in the bombing campaign in Iraq/Syria against ISIS (interestingly, I read an article a while back saying that UAE fighters were the only non-US coalition country that was tasked with attacking the best defended and highest risk targets; typically these are only carried out by the US due to a combination of technology and training, but the UAE made the cut); what they don't do is go it alone. Bahrain has outsourced their naval security to the US and their regime stability/internal security to Saudi Arabia and do not rock the boat otherwise.

    I guess that the Saudis et al decided that Qatar needed to be taught a lesson, both on their somewhat cowboyish stance on foreign affairs as well as their support for Muslim Brotherhood and other Sunni religious organizations, which Egypt and Saudi in particular see as threats to their stability. The timing seems a bit odd to me, though - reports have tried to link it to a hack (or something fishy) of some Qatari media that posted (apparently?) false stories quoting the Qatari leadership as being more kindly disposed to both Iran and Israel (likely the former is what would ruffle feathers), but I am less than convinced that this is the real reason. Has anyone been following Gulf politics closely enough to understand what's really going on?
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  2. #2
    The way I read it, the Saudis (and others) were just waiting for an excuse to sever relations with Qatar, and jumped on the hacked Qatar message to carry out that plan. Since the message wasn't the actual reason for cutting off relations, they don't really care whether the message is proven to be fake (I also wouldn't put it past them to be have hired the hackers in the first place, but that's not really important here).
    Hope is the denial of reality

  3. #3
    Yeah, that's similar to my reading. IIRC they tried something like this a few years back but it fizzled out - do you think this is likely to have more staying power? Certainly the moves announced so far seem a lot more dramatic.
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  4. #4

  5. #5
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    Oh that episode triggered this? I'd already forgotten about it; though I remember thinkng how stupid you'd have to be to go on a hunting trip in Iraq.
    Congratulations America

  6. #6
    Lots of fishy details in the deal to release them (as per the above piece).
    Hope is the denial of reality

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    Lots of fishy details in the deal to release them (as per the above piece).
    Yeah, almost makes one think the whole kidnapping was a cover up.
    Congratulations America

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Hazir View Post
    Yeah, almost makes one think the whole kidnapping was a cover up.
    Either that or just an excuse to execute a previously agreed-upon deal.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  9. #9
    I guess I shouldn't be surprised anymore, Trump seems to be siding with Saudi et al and implying quite strongly that Qatar finances terrorism and that he approves of this move. While he's not wrong about Qatar financing terrorism (as does Saudi Arabia, albeit somewhat more indirectly), it seems like a rather reckless move given that CENTCOM is headquartered there and we have a massive logistics/airbase there.
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  10. #10
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    Well, it is strange. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia has been getting free passes left right and in the middle over the last decades. That's also strange.
    Congratulations America

  11. #11
    Hope is the denial of reality

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