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Thread: Will Catalonia go it alone?

  1. #1
    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    Default Will Catalonia go it alone?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...nce-referendum

    Kinda horrific prospect. Flames of separatism have no doubt been fanned by Russian troll-factories and British profiling companies buying hundreds of thousands of euros' worth of targeted ads.

    What do you think will be the outcome of the vote?

    What will be the consequences?

    If Catalonia secedes and the EU does not unequivocally state that it is no longer a part of the EU, will that have an impact on politics in the UK? Will Scotland call for another independence referendum?
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
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  2. #2
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    No.

    Though possibly they should ultimately low turnout will make this moot.

    The comparison between Catalonia and Scotland is weak. Catalonia is by far a net contributor to Spain whereas Scotland is a net recipient.

    Since Spain has veto rights over accession a newly independent state will not be a member of the EU.
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  3. #3
    All Worship Ragnarök Loki's Avatar
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    Spanish courts will squash this, either before or immediately after the vote. I don't think there's much appetite for violence on the Catalan side, and I can't see it prevailing otherwise.
    Last edited by Loki; 09-08-2017 at 02:30 AM.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  4. #4
    Local talking head LittleFuzzy's Avatar
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    I foresee more criminal charges for Catalan politicians.
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

  5. #5
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    Spanish courts with squash this, either before or immediately after the vote. I don't think there's much appetite for violence on the Catalan side, and I can't see it prevailing otherwise.
    How do you think they should get their independence without violence?

    I like about my nation that we let the people decide. Whether it be Brexit for SindyRef there is nobody saying no you have no say.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  6. #6
    All Worship Ragnarök Loki's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    How do you think they should get their independence without violence?

    I like about my nation that we let the people decide. Whether it be Brexit for SindyRef there is nobody saying no you have no say.
    They shouldn't. They're not being oppressed and the vote should be put to the people of Spain, not Catalonia.

    A great recipe for total chaos. If the Catalans think both them and the rest of Spain will be better off from a divorce, convince a majority of Spaniards.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  7. #7
    Local talking head LittleFuzzy's Avatar
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    Which is a recipe for saying a minority can never leave/dissolve a relationship they don't desire. Which is rather tyrannical.
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

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    All Worship Ragnarök Loki's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LittleFuzzy View Post
    Which is a recipe for saying a minority can never leave/dissolve a relationship they don't desire. Which is rather tyrannical.
    The minority decision has a substantial impact on the majority. You don't just get to screw over everyone because you're uncomfortable. A lot of blood has been shed to create current borders and a hell of a lot more will be shed if you make it easy to redraw them.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  9. #9
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    You have it backwards and it is your logic that is creating a demand for bloodshed. If you think violence is the only means for a minority to secure their freedom then that creates a demand for violence.

    If you accept ballots rather than bullets as the solution then there will be no bloodshed.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  10. #10
    All Worship Ragnarök Loki's Avatar
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    Why not create a decentralized world government that can create peace and prosperity for all? Or maybe we should ignore dumb solutions that have no chance of working.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  11. #11
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Accepting ballots rather than bullets for self-determination won't work?

    Funny its worked here and in many other democracies globally.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
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  12. #12
    All Worship Ragnarök Loki's Avatar
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    Globally? Britain, Canada, and Czechoslovakia (and the Czechs didn't want to be part of that union nearly as much as the Slovaks) aren't the world.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  13. #13
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    No but Canada is on another continent. I never said that all nations have dealt with ballots over bullets, I said many have.

    Puerto Rico would have been granted independence if they'd voted for it, like Micronesia did previously.

    If you accept the principles of democracy and self-determination then that makes violence less likely not more. If you refuse to accept self-determination and only accept violence then you leave just one avenue.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
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  14. #14
    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    This rests on the assumption that a democratic vote is sufficiently legitimate to alter the lives of millions against their will. If you base the decision to secede on a democratic election where the separatists win with 51% of the votes, you have 49% of voters--as well as their non-voting allies and kin--extremely displeased. If they win with 61% of the votes, you will nevertheless have 39% extremely displeased voters. You might associate separatists more strongly with the use of political violence, and think therefore that encouraging regions to put these questions to a vote might discourage violence, but what's to say separatists will not use violence to bring about that vote or to bring about their desirable outcome? Or, for that matter, declare a lost referendum invalid?

    In addition to the practical concerns, there are the ethical concerns of letting one part of a country vote to damage the entire country and most of its citizens. Most countries have evolved organically over a long time in which important policy decisions have been made, based on the reasonable assumption of perpetual territorial integrity, with quid-pro-quo mutual beneficial arrangements. Allowing regions to secede based on referendums encourages them to take advantage of these relationships in an ethically dubious fashion.
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  15. #15
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Yes some may be disappointed. Oh well that's democracy for you.

    I have no ethical concerns. Yes a country may have evolved over a long period of time but then so should patriotic feeling. People should feel loyal to their country and it is quite an extreme act to vote for independence. In the real world where people have sought secession it is nations that were long-term divided with a minority that was either oppressed or unhappy. Even then it has taken a lot to cause a majority to vote for independence. It is more dubious to keep a minority trapped than theoretical concerns about potential issues.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  16. #16
    Local talking head LittleFuzzy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    The minority decision has a substantial impact on the majority. You don't just get to screw over everyone because you're uncomfortable. A lot of blood has been shed to create current borders and a hell of a lot more will be shed if you make it easy to redraw them.
    Except of course the status quo is ALSO screwing over a lot of people and you're saying that's legitimate because ceasing to do so would then make others uncomfortable. It's the exact same thing, you're just insisting on only looking at it from one side's perspective. Which you demonstrate when you reversed yourself and started talking about the minority in the region Catalonia in the exact same vein that you refused to countenance for the pro-Catalan minority when looking at the country overall. There is no inherent virtue from something being the status quo, Loki.

    As for bloodshed, the EU was created to prevent further war in Europe and is in an excellent position to allow this kind of self-determination and border-drawing/redrawing without bloodshed. Nothing in "ever-closer union" means sub-units need to remain in their current form.
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  17. #17
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Spain seems to be doing all it can to piss off the Catalans and get a Si vote. Do you really think this is healthy behaviour Loki?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  18. #18
    All Worship Ragnarök Loki's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Spain seems to be doing all it can to piss off the Catalans and get a Si vote. Do you really think this is healthy behaviour Loki?

    I believe in the rule of law. I take it you think the Spanish constitution and its judiciary should be ignored when self-determination is involved?
    Hope is the denial of reality

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by LittleFuzzy View Post
    Except of course the status quo is ALSO screwing over a lot of people and you're saying that's legitimate because ceasing to do so would then make others uncomfortable. It's the exact same thing, you're just insisting on only looking at it from one side's perspective. Which you demonstrate when you reversed yourself and started talking about the minority in the region Catalonia in the exact same vein that you refused to countenance for the pro-Catalan minority when looking at the country overall. There is no inherent virtue from something being the status quo, Loki.

    As for bloodshed, the EU was created to prevent further war in Europe and is in an excellent position to allow this kind of self-determination and border-drawing/redrawing without bloodshed. Nothing in "ever-closer union" means sub-units need to remain in their current form.
    Cry me a river, Fuzzy. The people in Quebec, Scotland, and Catalonia are not suffering under the present conditions. They're not being oppressed. There's no reason to even think they'd be substantially better off if they were independent.

    Every time you make it easier for people to secede, you encourage more groups to attempt secession. We know that attempted secession is a major cause of civil war. We know that civil war is incredibly bloody. What you're saying is that to make some rich, whiny nationalists get their way, we should be willing to contribute to immense human suffering. No thank you.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  20. #20
    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    I believe in the rule of law. I take it you think the Spanish constitution and its judiciary should be ignored when self-determination is involved?
    Nobody expects the Spanish constitution.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
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  21. #21
    All Worship Ragnarök Loki's Avatar
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    I'll take national courts over a bunch of self-serving state-level politicians.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  22. #22
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Your argument is a colonialists dream and factually wrong. When you make it harder to secede it is that which leads to Civil War.

    When has a democracy respecting self determination led to Civil War?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  23. #23
    All Worship Ragnarök Loki's Avatar
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    It's already hard to secede. Is your position that the EU should force countries to grant self-determination to anyone who asks? Requiring the Catalans to respect their own country's constitution and courts doesn't make nationalists in other countries rise up in rebellion. But showing that secessionism works will.

    Great job in missing the point. Any move that makes changing borders easier encourages others to make similar demands. And a lot of those demands will result in the use of force (either by the people demanding independence or those refusing it). You might think the rest of the world is composed of Britains and Canadas, but there are far more Romanias, Serbias, Macedonias, Estonias, Latvias, Philippines, Indias, and Kenyas. And that's just from democracies. You decrease the cost of secession enough and all of Africa will blow up (more so than right now). Seems like a worthwhile pursuit to help a bunch of rich Catalans who want to leave because they have to pay slightly higher taxes.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  24. #24
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    No my position is that ethically all people should have the right to self determination. Nobody has a reason to rise up in rebellion if they're allowed to get their freedom by the ballot box rather than bombs and bullets. Showing that secessionists can't get what they want via democratic means is what leads to terrorism and rebellion as a last resort.

    You're missing the point. There is no requirement for force if voting works. When did you last hear of a Quebecois or Scottish freedom fighter? What about a Basque or Chechen one? How is denying democratic self-determination making violence less likely?

    If an Indian province wants independence then fine let them settle it democratically too.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  25. #25
    All Worship Ragnarök Loki's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    No my position is that ethically all people should have the right to self determination. Nobody has a reason to rise up in rebellion if they're allowed to get their freedom by the ballot box rather than bombs and bullets. Showing that secessionists can't get what they want via democratic means is what leads to terrorism and rebellion as a last resort.

    You're missing the point. There is no requirement for force if voting works. When did you last hear of a Quebecois or Scottish freedom fighter? What about a Basque or Chechen one? How is denying democratic self-determination making violence less likely?

    If an Indian province wants independence then fine let them settle it democratically too.
    Numerous groups want independence but aren't pushing their claims because they know they won't be accepted. You lower the bar for secession, and more groups will pursue it.

    Ethically, you don't have a right to impose huge externalities on your neighbors.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  26. #26
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    The multiple Quebecois referenda, the Scottish referendum and various other referendums like in Micronesia etc have been spaced out over decades. They haven't led to a spate of claims.

    It takes a very high threshold for enough political demand for secession to reach the point where a local area gets a majority of MPs pledging to host a referendum (as happened in Catalanoi, Quebec and Scotland). It takes even more for the referendum to be successful. The idea that this is going to be the thin end of the wedge is a fallacy.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  27. #27
    Local talking head LittleFuzzy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    I believe in the rule of law.
    See, law is another of those things I don't think has inherent virtue. You know what does? Self-determination.
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

  28. #28
    All Worship Ragnarök Loki's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LittleFuzzy View Post
    See, law is another of those things I don't think has inherent virtue. You know what does? Self-determination.
    Rule of law has no inherent value? Really?

    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    The multiple Quebecois referenda, the Scottish referendum and various other referendums like in Micronesia etc have been spaced out over decades. They haven't led to a spate of claims.

    It takes a very high threshold for enough political demand for secession to reach the point where a local area gets a majority of MPs pledging to host a referendum (as happened in Catalanoi, Quebec and Scotland). It takes even more for the referendum to be successful. The idea that this is going to be the thin end of the wedge is a fallacy.
    In most of the countries I mentioned, ethnic parties already get a majority of the vote in their regions.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  29. #29
    Local talking head LittleFuzzy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    It's already hard to secede. Is your position that the EU should force countries to grant self-determination to anyone who asks? Requiring the Catalans to respect their own country's constitution and courts doesn't make nationalists in other countries rise up in rebellion. But showing that secessionism works will.

    Great job in missing the point. Any move that makes changing borders easier encourages others to make similar demands. And a lot of those demands will result in the use of force (either by the people demanding independence or those refusing it). You might think the rest of the world is composed of Britains and Canadas, but there are far more Romanias, Serbias, Macedonias, Estonias, Latvias, Philippines, Indias, and Kenyas. And that's just from democracies. You decrease the cost of secession enough and all of Africa will blow up (more so than right now). Seems like a worthwhile pursuit to help a bunch of rich Catalans who want to leave because they have to pay slightly higher taxes.
    A) the idea that it might encourage others matters precisely jack-all. Your claim otherwise is like saying that you should have no right to free speech because someone else might use their own right to free speech to stir unrest. No shit Sherlock, the inability to prevent people from stirring unrest is why we have free speech in the first place. But let's say it did matter. The Catalans exercising self determination STILL means jack-all because it's completely irrelevant to anyone outside the EU (and the EU means the risks you're so worried about wouldn't be at play anyway). It doesn't do anything about the cost of secession in Africa, or Asia, or anywhere else. East Timor didn't spawn a global crisis as people threw off shackles. Neither did the break-up of Czechoslovakia. The breakup of Yugoslavia caused problems but they weren't global, they were in the former Yugoslavia. And let's face it, you don't give a rat's ass about redrawing borders because you weren't the least bit concerned about the Spanish demand for Gibraltar back with Brexit.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    Rule of law has no inherent value? Really?
    I didn't say that, I said law. It's what the law does that has value, not that it exists at all. And you plainly don't give a rat's ass about what the law is or what it does because you're only interested in maintaining the status quo BECAUSE it's the status quo. You sure as hell don't care about the law itself because as shown above, the law is irrelevant, it's whether a border might get redrawn and plunge the world into flame that matters.
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

  30. #30
    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    To be fair, the appeal of secession should be tempered somewhat by long-running practice of only reluctantly recognizing unilateral declarations of independence & statehood, with all that lack of recognition entails.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

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