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Thread: Could this be one of the dumbest ideas in modern history?

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    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    Default Could this be one of the dumbest ideas in modern history?

    Diplomats and others with inside info have been talking for months about Trump-admin's and some lawmakers' inclination to launch a pre-emptive strike on North Korea, to bloody its nose to to speak and this deter them from further nuclear development. Afaict this has been regarded almost universally, by all manner of experts, as a really fucking stupid idea. Recently it was revealed that a strong candidate for the position of the US ambassador to South Korea expressed sincere concern about this proposed strategy, and the WH promptly stopped returning his calls. He's now going on the record, presumably to make it clear to the public how real the possibility is that the US might follow through on what might be one of the dumbest and most irresponsible ideas in history:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/ampht...dd2_story.html

    I couldn't find a pic of a naked Gorsuch lying on a pile of dead American soldiers and South Korean gamers among the rubble of Seoul to illustrate this thread so you'll have to imagine it.
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    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    While I agree that any war with North Korea will potentially lead to millions of deaths especially in South Korea, I am perplexed by the idea of an alternative of more decisive sanctions as an alternative tool of coercion.

    Sanctions are already as decisive as we can manage, what more can be done via sanctions that isn't already? If he was arguing that sanctions are working to contain North Korea and we need to wait this out patiently that would make sense but the idea we should avoid force because we can start with sanctions that we're not already doing is concerning.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
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    Administrator Dreadnaught's Avatar
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    What's your beef with Gorsuch, especially on this issue?

    The ambassador candidate removal makes sense. Power projection matters, especially in these instances. North Korea rightly doubts we would use military force in any pre-emptive way. This gives them the upper hand to do tons of well-documented shenanigans. Having an ambassador speak for the US who rhetorically closes-off military options just doesn't help in these situations.

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    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Well, you could get China onboard - then you'd have indeed very strong sanctions.

    However, with the Trumpsterfire we have going on, this is a rather unlikely possibility.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    Diplomats and others with inside info have been talking for months about Trump-admin's and some lawmakers' inclination to launch a pre-emptive strike on North Korea, to bloody its nose to to speak and this deter them from further nuclear development. Afaict this has been regarded almost universally, by all manner of experts, as a really fucking stupid idea. Recently it was revealed that a strong candidate for the position of the US ambassador to South Korea expressed sincere concern about this proposed strategy, and the WH promptly stopped returning his calls. He's now going on the record, presumably to make it clear to the public how real the possibility is that the US might follow through on what might be one of the dumbest and most irresponsible ideas in history:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/ampht...dd2_story.html

    I couldn't find a pic of a naked Gorsuch lying on a pile of dead American soldiers and South Korean gamers among the rubble of Seoul to illustrate this thread so you'll have to imagine it.
    This might have been a valid plan in the past but I don't see how it could possibly work now.

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    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Khendraja'aro View Post
    Well, you could get China onboard - then you'd have indeed very strong sanctions.

    However, with the Trumpsterfire we have going on, this is a rather unlikely possibility.
    How do you propose we get China to get onboard.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

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    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    How do you propose we get China to get onboard.
    It's called "diplomacy", Rand.
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    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Indeed, which was tried by Obama, Bush, Clinton and others.

    What specifically other than smokes and mirrors are you proposing?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

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    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Indeed, which was tried by Obama, Bush, Clinton and others.

    What specifically other than smokes and mirrors are you proposing?
    Well, you seem hell-bent on glassing the place, so I don't know anything which would make you think otherwise.
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    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    I oppose glassing the place as it will result in millions of deaths in South Korea and Japan.

    I think we're doing the best possible amount of containment already. My solution is to keep doing what we're already doing.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

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    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Tactically that makes sense to me. A bloody nose attack won't achieve much and will give plenty of opportunity for retaliation. A first strike if its going to occur would need to be brutal, bloody and final. Plus even if you're not intending to attack but want N Korea to take seriously the idea that you might and be worried that you might then it makes sense to make them worry about a deadly final strike not a piss weak first strike.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  13. #13
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    You'd need to take out the complete artillery North Korea has stationed at the border. And take it out instantly

    Are you willing to sacrifice Seoul?

    I mean, all of Seoul? For reference, imagine Trump was proposing to "solve" the Irish Border issue by allowing London to be razed.
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    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    No I'm not which is why I've repeatedly stated I oppose all attacks on North Korea. Is that hard for you to comprehend for some reason? Is there something here that you found hard to understand, any big words you want me to break down?
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    I oppose glassing the place as it will result in millions of deaths in South Korea and Japan.

    I think we're doing the best possible amount of containment already. My solution is to keep doing what we're already doing.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  15. #15
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Then I don't see why that makes any tactical sense to you.
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    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    "If Trump uses force against North Korea" ... you are aware of the word "if" and what it means right? Do you understand how "if ... then ..." logic statement works or do you need me to explain it slowly to you?

    Tactically "if Trump uses force" then it should be overwhelming force not a bloody nose. But I oppose force being used.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

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    That's no moon. EyeKhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    How do you propose we get China to get onboard.
    Quote Originally Posted by Khendraja'aro View Post
    It's called "diplomacy", Rand.
    It may be that China cannot get on board, regardless of diplomacy. By cannot, I mean it looks like NK is doing what it wants regardless of what China threatens, correctly calling China's bluff. By bluff, I mean if China did tank NK's economy by enacting real sanctions, the result would likely be economic and political chaos on their southern border, which they do not want. They would rather have a stable NK emboldened with a nuclear deterrent than a collapsed state with unpredictable entities holding large conventional, and some level of nuclear and probably chemical weapons capabilities, warring with each other, and some with interest in warring with SK, Japan, and the US.

    I think the choice the US faces is to destroy NK's nuclear capability or move forward diplomatically with the new premise of accepting NK as a nuclear power with global reach. Neither choice is good, though I would argue the risks presented by the first (including huge numbers of conventional dead, global economic turmoil, the very real and growing prospect of multiple cities destroyed with nuclear weapons, and a solid risk of a full nuclear exchange with China itself) make it absolutely unacceptable. That leaves the latter and wherever it leads.
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    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Neither choice is good but we need to contain NK as a milder version of what we faced in the USSR.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

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    That's no moon. EyeKhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Neither choice is good but we need to contain NK as a milder version of what we faced in the USSR.
    I'm not sure where the "mild" goes.... The USSR had a lot more destructive power than NK does, for sure. But it also, apparently, felt it had a lot more to lose in a suicidal nuclear war. NK has called the world's bluff, and seems to have done so with wild success, giving the impression they are perfectly willing to face certain destruction, while assuring they'll deal their fair share in the process. The question is what will they do next, once they've fully developed their nuclear deterrent, flush with the success of staring down the entire world?
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    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    "If Trump uses force against North Korea" ... you are aware of the word "if" and what it means right? Do you understand how "if ... then ..." logic statement works or do you need me to explain it slowly to you?

    Tactically "if Trump uses force" then it should be overwhelming force not a bloody nose. But I oppose force being used.
    Good gracious, you're a super genius tactician, that's what you are.

    Your "analysis" is the tactical equivalent to "1 plus 1 makes 2".
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    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by EyeKhan View Post
    I'm not sure where the "mild" goes.... The USSR had a lot more destructive power than NK does, for sure. But it also, apparently, felt it had a lot more to lose in a suicidal nuclear war. NK has called the world's bluff, and seems to have done so with wild success, giving the impression they are perfectly willing to face certain destruction, while assuring they'll deal their fair share in the process. The question is what will they do next, once they've fully developed their nuclear deterrent, flush with the success of staring down the entire world?
    If the Cold War went hot then the Mutual Assured Destruction could end the world.

    NK can end millions of lives especially in Seoul and Japan but not end the world.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

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    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Khendraja'aro View Post
    Good gracious, you're a super genius tactician, that's what you are.

    Your "analysis" is the tactical equivalent to "1 plus 1 makes 2".
    Except many are proposing the "bloody nose" solution and that is what the originally quoted Tweet referred to. A bloody nose solution is the worst of all solutions.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  23. #23
    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3...e-long-run?amp

    Could Graham be one of the dumbest politicians in human history?
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  24. #24
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Nah, America offers a lot of competition for that position.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  25. #25
    Alpharomeo81 reloaded ar81's Avatar
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    I think it is a war of tough words, a war of machos to see who has the bigger gun.
    Politicians, bankers and rich people are not interested in dying or live a nuclear winter, so while they do not feel afraid, we shouldn't.
    The day when banks give away money with negative interest for loans, that day you can fear.
    I am sure the idea of trade war can be more effective than the threat of a nuclear winter because it hurts big profile pockets.

    I suspect that in the end NK will have to give its nuke capability away.
    Poverty is developing in South Korea, grocery stores are disappearing and it is harder and harder for people to make a stable living.
    South Koreans are leaving South Korea.
    I have the feeling that China only needs to watch South Korea to collapse to help it and gain allies, while NK gives away its nukes.
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    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    The grown ups are departing

    Though interesting that while he was a moderating influence elsewhere he was one of the most hawkish over N Korea.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  29. #29
    Local talking head LittleFuzzy's Avatar
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    You guys can say the grown-ups are departing but remember that McMaster was also one of the hawks who wants a military confrontation with North Korea (Bolton does too IIRC so that's not going to change)
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  30. #30
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Didn't I just say that?

    While a confrontation with N Korea would be devastating I'd have infinitely more confidence with McMaster calling the shots than Trump and Bolton.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

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