I don't think you can necessarily extrapolate the current speed of development into something society changing like AI all the way into the future. Compare where the Internet was two decades ago (a niche pass-time for technically minded kids) to the way it's become a completely ubiquitous part of society over past decade in a way that was predicted by absolutely no one. There is an non-trivial chance of a similar explosion in AI.

I mean, if I had to guess and place I bet I'd probably go with the AI pessimists but it's all pretty up in air as far as I'm concerned. We have no idea how far we can take it until we actually try and go there.

Also, automation doesn't have to replace *all* forms of work to have major society changing consequences. Simply doing away with most low-payed, unskilled work will do that. If every job must be something an AI *can't* do then we're really going to have to up our game on education.