Syria

[Aimless]

The news and videos coming out of EG this week are deeply concerning. Couple of hundred dead--many of them children--and over a thousand injured, with numbers steadily rising. Medical facilities being targeted. If this is allowed to go unchecked and unpunished, it will be a significant step backward for the entire world.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...788_story.html

Playlist of videos: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=big6rLQeomY

(warning: graphic images)

[Hazir]

Eh, you pick a side first. And try to make it a side that is not made up of raving lunatics or outright war criminals. And for your information; it's not a step back. This is live in Syria as it has been for the last years. Those 6 million Syrians who are outside of the country? They're not on an extended vacation.

[Aimless]

Eh, you pick a side first. And try to make it a side that is not made up of raving lunatics or outright war criminals. And for your information; it's not a step back. This is live in Syria as it has been for the last years. Those 6 million Syrians who are outside of the country? They're not on an extended vacation.

I am well aware. I was referring to the impact on future wars and conflicts elsewhere.

[Aimless]

Apparently they died.

[Aimless]

From mild-mannered Ian Bond:

Waiting for Putin and Assad to run out of people to kill. Is that our plan?

[Veldan Rath]

From mild-mannered Ian Bond:

Waiting for Putin and Assad to run out of people to kill. Is that our plan?

Honest question, what are you asking the international community to do? Sanctions only? Or actual military engagement?

[Aimless]

Honest question, what are you asking the international community to do? Sanctions only? Or actual military engagement?

will be at risk of destabilisation.

Those most responsible should spend the rest of their lives looking over their shoulders

At a minimum, the west and its allies in the region should do more to end the impunity of Syria’s leaders and their allies. The UN general assembly passed a resolution in December 2016 setting up a panel to assist in investigating and prosecuting those responsible for war crimes in Syria. Countries such as the UK that have laws allowing prosecutions for war crimes committed in other countries should work with the panel to open cases as soon as possible. If there is evidence to implicate Iranian or Russian forces in serious violations of international humanitarian law, then they also should be targeted for prosecution. Those most responsible for the suffering of the Syrian people over the last seven years should spend the rest of their lives looking over their shoulders.

In addition, the EU and like-minded countries should step up sanctions against Russian individuals and companies involved in supporting the conflict in Syria. Many may already be sanctioned in connection with Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine, but the EU should increase the pressure with asset freezes, travel bans and restrictions on EU firms doing business with Russian entities active in Syria.

Finally, in the light of two significant military developments in recent weeks, western leaders should reconsider their reluctance to strike the forces responsible for so many atrocities. First, on 7 February, Russian private military contractors attacked a base in eastern Syria where US troops were based. The US forces appear to have killed a large number of attackers. The Russians were undoubtedly fighting in Syria with Kremlin approval, as a way of maintaining the fiction that Russia has no ground forces in Syria. Even so, Russia chose to cover up its casualties, rather than fight back.

Second, after Syrian air defences shot down an Israeli F-16 fighter on 10 February, Israel claimed to have destroyed almost half of Syria’s air defence system in retaliatory strikes. The Russians did nothing to prevent the Israeli attack. Israel’s success suggests that western military leaders were exaggerating the strength of Syria’s air defences to justify not striking regime targets earlier.

UN security council fails to agree on Syria ceasefire after second day of talks

Taken together, these two defeats for the Syrian regime and the Russians suggest that a well-planned campaign (not the kind of one-off missile strike that Donald Trump launched in April 2017) could degrade Assad’s military capabilities, providing an incentive for him to look for a peaceful way out. A similar strategy, involving Nato strikes on Serbian forces, helped to bring Slobodan Milošević to the negotiating table and end the Bosnian conflict in 1995. A military campaign would need to be coupled with a strong message to Russia to stay out of the way and a plan for moving towards peace. Such a plan would need, among other things, to identify which members of the current regime and the Syrian opposition might be acceptable negotiating partners and which have put themselves beyond the pale.

I agree with the bare minimum proposed in the article, and I think it's long past time to consider a more forceful intervention. Previously, it was regarded as too difficult and costly an endeavour. Recent events suggest that that might not be the case, or at least that the cost-benefit analysis may have to be re-examined.

[Hazir]

Of course we can start WW3 over Syria; it would be a worthy enough cause. However, if we don't want that and put our feet safely back on the ground, we have this little problem that since everybody is bloody switching sides all the time in this conflict it's near impossible to solve the Syrian Civil war without throwing half of the male population in jail while we keep under consideration whether or not we should throw away the keys.

And now a line in capitals 'THE SYRIAN CIVIL WAR CAN NOT BE CONTAINED FROM THE AIR'.

The mere fact that Syrian air defenses aren't so great doesn't mean the air defense in Syria isn't so great. The Russians are quite capable of making life very difficult for anybodoy they don't want to fly over Syria. The fact that they didn't hinder the Israelis is not proof that they aren't willing to shoot down those who harm their interests in Syria. Israel making the Assad regime just that bit extra dependent on Russia isn't necessarily against their interests.

Full disclosure; with a number of people I hang out with in Istanbul talking about the Civil war in Syria has become a taboo subject as it doesn't mix well with their Civil War in Syria related PTSS's, so my view of the Civil War in Syria may be somewhat tainted.