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Thread: Putin announces Canadian Girlfriend

  1. #1
    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    Default Putin announces Canadian Girlfriend

    It's totally hot and they've totally done it--invulnerably.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...1b6_story.html

    More worried about the change in posture than about the reality.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
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  2. #2
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Yeah, at least that nuclear-powered missile is basically bogus.
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  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by Khendraja'aro View Post
    Yeah, at least that nuclear-powered missile is basically bogus.
    How so? The US experimented with nuclear powered cruise missiles in the early 60s. It's feasible, certainly, and it sounds like they Russians have run tests on some prototypes. It's obviously a really bad idea but I'm not sure why you think it's bogus.
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

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    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wiggin View Post
    How so? The US experimented with nuclear powered cruise missiles in the early 60s. It's feasible, certainly, and it sounds like they Russians have run tests on some prototypes. It's obviously a really bad idea but I'm not sure why you think it's bogus.
    a) Too heavy
    b) Too many problems with heat dissipation, especially at the multi-Mach speeds at low altitude touted by the Russians.

    The latter is the real showstopper - you already have a problem with air-cooling a nuclear reactor. And now you add the heat from air-resistance on top of that.

    And, yes, the US experimented with that. They also gave up on that.
    When the stars threw down their spears
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  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Khendraja'aro View Post
    a) Too heavy
    b) Too many problems with heat dissipation, especially at the multi-Mach speeds at low altitude touted by the Russians.

    The latter is the real showstopper - you already have a problem with air-cooling a nuclear reactor. And now you add the heat from air-resistance on top of that.
    The US system wasn't really a cruise missile; it was a lot bigger, more like a nuclear powered unmanned strategic bomber. The theory was that it could maneuver over Russian cities and bases and lob gravity nukes down on each, after which it would continue to fly over Soviet cities emitting radiation until it crashed. It seems like they felt it was feasible back in the 60s; I'm in no way going to suggest it's not feasible now.

    The heating issue is a real one, but if you're traveling at more pedestrian speeds (some analysts seemed to think the vids showed a subsonic vehicle) it's probably manageable, even without crazy fancy materials. I'd be concerned about the long term lifetime of the materials being exposed to high radiation levels from an unshielded reactor, but for relatively short periods of time (say, a few days) it would probably be okay.

    Remember, the Russians claim (relatively credibly) to have tested this system. I believe them.

    And, yes, the US experimented with that. They also gave up on that.
    My understanding is that Project Pluto wasn't cancelled because it was determined to be fundamentally infeasible, but rather because ICBM technology had advanced to the point that it became a moot point; the work to solve the propulsion, safety, and airframe issues just wasn't worth it when you had a safer and effective option available. The logic continues to hold true today; ICBMs with sufficient countermeasures against interception are still all you really need for strategic deterrence. The Russian argument in favor of this weapon system is that ABM systems fielded by the US are useless against this kind of threat. While true, they're also useless against Russia's current ICBM arsenal. I guess the Russians are concerned that in time things like the GBM system will get sophisticated and numerous enough to credibly give the US a decent chance of a successful counterforce strike. They might even be right, despite the checkered history of GBM and strategic ABM in general. It's not a threat now, but who knows what things will look like in 10 or 20 years? Alternatively, it's possible they're starting to look at the progress the US is making in developing high energy laser weapons; maybe they think we'll eventually have ABM systems with near-infinite 'shots', which would indeed render ICBM systems obsolete.

    Also entirely possible that the Russians are just tinkering with this and they have no plans on really fielding such a weapon (similar to other high end weapons systems like their 5th generation fighter); it's more aimed at the US to demonstrate a capability and at their domestic audience to sound tough. I'm frankly not concerned since it doesn't do anything to change strategic deterrence. I suppose some of the weapons he proposed could shorten warning times, which do increase the chances of a mistake - ICBMs are nice in that they're relatively slow and easy to see. So it's probably worth revisiting different types of delivery vehicles in future arms control talks just to preserve adequate early warning times.
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  6. #6
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wiggin View Post
    Remember, the Russians claim (relatively credibly) to have tested this system. I believe them.
    They can claim what they want. I don't believe them until they actually demonstrate a prototype.

    I also don't know where they want to take the money from, given that they had to downsize the numbers of T-14 considerably...
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  7. #7
    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
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  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Khendraja'aro View Post
    They can claim what they want. I don't believe them until they actually demonstrate a prototype.

    I also don't know where they want to take the money from, given that they had to downsize the numbers of T-14 considerably...
    http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/01/...r-than-trumps/

    These are the guys (from ACW) whose job it is to evaluate the claims, and they quote US intelligence officials as being aware of prototype testing of the cruise missiles. US intelligence also claimed the test resulted in a crash, but I don't think Putin's claim was entirely made up, just his assessment of its readiness.

    As for money, certainly the Russia defense budget is strained - though it has increased dramatically in recent years, they also have a lot of competing priorities. Certainly they've been developing quite advanced weapons systems but not procuring them or fielding them in large quantities - the Armata tank being one example, with the semi-5th generation PAK-FA (or Su-57 or whatever they're calling it) being another. I have two responses to your questioning budgetary priorities:

    First, I think Russia doesn't expect to produce enough high end weapons systems to compete with the US in a peer manner. Rather, I think they're developing the capability, which signals to the US that they can continue to be a peer competitor in the future as they wish. They're essentially just trying to stay in the game, which requires technology development but not necessarily a lot of new equipment. After all, most of Russia's actual use of military force is against much weaker foes.

    Second, if I was running Russia's defense ministry and was concerned about progress in US ABM technology, I would absolutely prioritize strategic deterrence over conventional forces superiority. The fact of the matter is that the US is not likely to engage Russia directly in a conventional war; rather, they're far more likely to engage in proxy wars where you won't necessarily need to use the fanciest and newest weapons system (or even want to; every time the Su-57 flies in Syria, I have no doubt that a whole bunch of Israeli and American sensors are pointed at them - far better to hold some cards close to your chest). As such, the thing that's really an existential threat is any potential nuclear first strike by the US. If I was seriously concerned about ABM blunting my ability to credibly threaten MAD, there's no question that I'd prioritize better nukes over conventional forces. Now, if I was in charge, I would work on better ICBMs and penetration aids (which Russia has done) rather than the rather outlandish cruise missile idea, but even so I get how this is a more important budgetary priority.
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  9. #9
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    The "quote" is from a Fox News guy (which is a news outlet I trust as far as I can throw them) "quoting" some anonymous officials.

    Yeah, that's a very strong claim for the actual existance of this thing.
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  10. #10
    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Khendraja'aro View Post
    The "quote" is from a Fox News guy
    Huh?
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  11. #11
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    Huh?
    Here, this is the only part which talks about "officials claiming that it exists but crashed":

    Putin says Russia has already tested its version. The U.S. intelligence community, in return, says the Russian missile crashed in testing. Maybe the Russians have developed a new nuclear-powered turbofan engine that poses fewer problems than the United States’ ramjet. Or maybe, if you find yourself visiting Russia, you might want to consider lead underwear.
    The link included in that passage leads to this tweet:

    https://twitter.com/LucasFoxNews/sta...33627530788865

    Which is FoxNews.
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  12. #12
    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    Lewis has other sources beyond Fox news, and his assessment is that the US was aware of the tests prior to the announcement. The tweet serves as a means of corroborating a specific claim about the tests, namely that the prototype crashed.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
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  13. #13
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Then maybe he should link to those instead of to the US' version of the DailyFail.
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  14. #14
    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Khendraja'aro View Post
    Then maybe he should link to those instead of to the US' version of the DailyFail.
    I believe it's not always possible to link directly to a primary source because insiders don't typically tweet out what they now for the entire world to see. Regardless, Lewis is generally regarded as being someone with reliable knowledge, insight and judgement, and what he's saying is not beyond the realm of possibility. I think your reaction here is kinda lacking a sense of proportion.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
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  15. #15
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    I'm just not willing to swallow everything Putin puts forth hook, line and sinker. I'll believe it when I actually see it.

    Not before, whatever those experts say.
    When the stars threw down their spears
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  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Khendraja'aro View Post
    I'm just not willing to swallow everything Putin puts forth hook, line and sinker. I'll believe it when I actually see it.

    Not before, whatever those experts say.
    But they are not accepting what Putin said as fact.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  17. #17
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    I just read an article in the Süddeutsche Zeitung where actual rocket scientists are really doubtful that the Russians actually were able to create such a missile.

    http://www.sueddeutsche.de/wissen/at...affe-1.3889703
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  18. #18
    All Worship Ragnarök Loki's Avatar
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    The right degree of mockery here:

    http://thehill.com/opinion/national-...steria-to-mask
    Hope is the denial of reality

  19. #19
    Senior Member GGT's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    The right degree of mockery here:
    Until the last paragraph

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