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Thread: I wonder what the cause is...

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    Default I wonder what the cause is...

    https://www.apnews.com/438bb0ac98d04...39;t-say-where

    In an interview Monday with German broadcaster n-tv, Merkel said she favors a zero tolerance policy on crime and that includes preventing no-go areas, “that’s areas where nobody dares to go.”

    She added: “There are such areas and one has to call them by their name and do something about them.”

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    ======== Timbuk2's Avatar
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    Lack of work.
    Poverty.
    Disenfranchisement.
    Lack of investment and infrastructure in those areas.
    Last edited by Timbuk2; 03-03-2018 at 08:00 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    It's actually the original French billion, which is bi-million, which is a million to the power of 2. We adopted the word, and then they changed it, presumably as revenge for Crecy and Agincourt, and then the treasonous Americans adopted the new French usage and spread it all over the world. And now we have to use it.

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    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Lack of work? Who are you trying to kid, Germany has a 3.6% unemployment rate. Work is abundantly there if anyone can be arsed to find work.

    Do you have any evidence to support your claim that while 96.4% of the population can find work there is 3.6% living in areas with a lack of work?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

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    Senior Member GGT's Avatar
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    Does that unemployment rate include refugees or asylum seekers living in temporary housing? Are those areas considered "no-go" zones?

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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Lack of work? Who are you trying to kid, Germany has a 3.6% unemployment rate. Work is abundantly there if anyone can be arsed to find work.

    Do you have any evidence to support your claim that while 96.4% of the population can find work there is 3.6% living in areas with a lack of work?
    Do I really have to cite all the audit studies showing that employers will consistently hire a non-Muslim over a Muslim with exactly the same resume?
    Hope is the denial of reality

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    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    I believe the employment-rate of Muslims in Germany is well over 90% too - or at least it was before they imported so many all at once but I think it still is.

    If you can cite any study showing unemployment amongst Muslims is anywhere close to 50% I'd be curious to see it, otherwise it seems the vast, vast majority of Muslims in Germany in the labour force are able to find work.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
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    Senior Member GGT's Avatar
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    Again, I'll ask what criteria do those unemployment numbers use? Rand said that many Muslims have been "imported all at once", but that speaks to Germany's policy accepting refugees from war-torn areas, not employment in general. Let alone what a "no-go" area means.

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    RB, you can't possibly believe that unemployment rates are a good measure to determine whether there are regions and sub-populations that are still finding it hard to find good employment. First off, unemployment's denominator only includes the people in the labor force and does not include e.g. discouraged workers. Secondly, country-wide unemployment rates tend to mask region or population specific malaise - certainly there are parts of the US and populations in the US that due to structural factors are either under- or unemployed, despite good unemployment numbers. Lastly, the German foreign-born unemployment right is almost double the overall German unemployment rate. I have no doubt that there are other populations that, for one reason or another, still have challenges getting to full employment.

    My company is trying hard to fill a few roles, and we're finding it challenging. Similarly, I get headhunted on a weekly basis. That would suggest - coupled with my state's excellent unemployment rate (3.7%) that we're in an economy at essentially full employment. But this is obviously not true for some people in my state. Due to poor education, or discrimination, or whatever else, there are pockets of people who are unable to find work. These populations often tend to be the most vulnerable as well, and sometimes they cluster in neighborhoods that also have high crime rates. It's not exactly rocket science to argue that improving their economic plight would help reduce the challenges of policing in some of these areas.
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

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    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GGT View Post
    Again, I'll ask what criteria do those unemployment numbers use? Rand said that many Muslims have been "imported all at once", but that speaks to Germany's policy accepting refugees from war-torn areas, not employment in general. Let alone what a "no-go" area means.
    Germany did not accept refugees. Germany had a policy of accepting migrants who were fit, able and of sufficient means (strength, financial or willpower) to make it to Germany on their own back. The refugees in the camps in neighbouring nations like Turkey etc who fled war-torn nations aren't the ones in Germany, those predominantly fit young men who could make the journey or pay people smugglers to make the journey are the ones who got there.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

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    Senior Member GGT's Avatar
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    Sounds to me like the root cause of many policy problems/flaws is using *aggregate* data.

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    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Aggregate data matters. If you can't find a job in your local area (a claim I frankly don't believe) you can get on your bike and get a job elsewhere.

    We've discussed in this thread people who've moved to better their lives thousands of miles crossing countries and continents but we're meant to believe people can't go from one part of a city to another part of the same city? Or to a neighbouring one? Pull the other one.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

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    Senior Member GGT's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Germany did not accept refugees. Germany had a policy of accepting migrants who were fit, able and of sufficient means (strength, financial or willpower) to make it to Germany on their own back. The refugees in the camps in neighbouring nations like Turkey etc who fled war-torn nations aren't the ones in Germany, those predominantly fit young men who could make the journey or pay people smugglers to make the journey are the ones who got there.
    I only know what I read, and from what I've read thousands of refugees have found their way to Germany, including women and children. Some are only stopping in Germany as they transition to some other nation; some want to stay there and make it their home. You still haven't answered my question about how employment is calculated.

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    Senior Member GGT's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Aggregate data matters. If you can't find a job in your local area (a claim I frankly don't believe) you can get on your bike and get a job elsewhere.

    We've discussed in this thread people who've moved to better their lives thousands of miles crossing countries and continents but we're meant to believe people can't go from one part of a city to another part of the same city? Or to a neighbouring one? Pull the other one.
    Aggregate data doesn't always reflect a true picture. You should know that by the disparate employment/unemployment numbers in the US that rely heavily on undocumented laborers in the Ag/food/service industries. They aren't "counted" in our labor/employment stats because they're not "documented" workers.

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    Senior Member GGT's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Aggregate data matters. If you can't find a job in your local area (a claim I frankly don't believe) you can get on your bike and get a job elsewhere.

    We've discussed in this thread people who've moved to better their lives thousands of miles crossing countries and continents but we're meant to believe people can't go from one part of a city to another part of the same city? Or to a neighbouring one? Pull the other one.
    Alternative reply: you make it sound like getting a job is easy, so easy that all you need is a bike? If you can't find a job locally, it's no problem to walk or bike (when there's no public transportation) to the next job, even if it's in the next municipality or county. Sorry, that doesn't work in any state that's the size of your entire country. Economies of scale and all that.

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    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GGT View Post
    I only know what I read, and from what I've read thousands of refugees have found their way to Germany, including women and children. Some are only stopping in Germany as they transition to some other nation; some want to stay there and make it their home. You still haven't answered my question about how employment is calculated.
    Thousands of migrants made their way to Germany. There is a difference between migrants, asylum seekers and refugees.

    And the key words is "made their way". Those who were too weak, infirm, vulnerable, impoverished etc to make the hazardous/expensive journey by themselves were left behind. Darwinian survival of the fittest at its most sickening.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
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    Quote Originally Posted by GGT View Post
    Alternative reply: you make it sound like getting a job is easy, so easy that all you need is a bike? If you can't find a job locally, it's no problem to walk or bike (when there's no public transportation) to the next job, even if it's in the next municipality or county. Sorry, that doesn't work in any state that's the size of your entire country. Economies of scale and all that.
    Which state in Germany are you thinking of that is the size of the UK? The largest German state is the wealthy state of Bavaria and that is less than a third of the size of the UK and just over half the size of England. Other than Bavaria no other state in Germany even comes close to being the same size.

    Germany does have a pretty good public transport system.

    What do you think is a reasonable distance to be able to commute? 5 miles? 10 miles? I'd be curious to hear you name a single "no go area" in Germany with "no jobs" within a 10 mile radius.

    The reality is that in Europe the most impoverished areas are very frequently back-to-back with very well off areas. The issues (and there are some) aren't a lack of jobs or opportunities.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

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    Senior Member GGT's Avatar
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    You still haven't explained how the employment numbers are calculated.

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    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    I'm not sure what your question is.

    As a simplified answer the standard way to determine employment percentages is the percentage of people in work from the pool of people who want to work and are actively either working or looking for work.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

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    Senior Member GGT's Avatar
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    My question is about the "participation rate", and how that fits into aggregate employment data, or can even skew it.

    If I'm a refugee or looking for temporary asylum, I'm not going to be counted as someone looking for a job (even though I want work, and seek work). I may not be counted because I'm not a documented citizen. So I wouldn't be counted in the participation rate, or even the unemployment rate. Right? Correct me if I'm wrong. I just want a clarification of what these employment stats actually measure.

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    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    It depends upon your status. If you've been given leave to remain and look for work then you would be in the participation rate, you don't have to be a citizen just a resident legally looking for work. If you're not legally permitted to work then no of course you wouldn't be in the participation rate, why would you be? In that scenario though looking for work/seeking work would be illegal.

    If you're an illegal migrant trying to hide from the authorities (which it what I think you're getting at but generally isn't the case with asylum seekers) then you'll neither show up as employed nor unemployed.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

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    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Germany did not accept refugees. Germany had a policy of accepting migrants who were fit, able and of sufficient means (strength, financial or willpower) to make it to Germany on their own back.
    This is one of the most despicable things I've seen anyone on this forum say. Fortunately, the German govt. does not consist entirely of dipshits.
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    I believe it is interesting that, after Merkel's statement, the German govt. has been unable to provide a list of purported no-go zones in response to requests from reporters and others with a legitimate interest in this extremely newsworthy statement. From context, it seems likely she was referring to areas where police are reluctant to enter without extra backup and only for serious crimes, which is a problem for any "zero tolerance" policy. I suspect areas that police are reluctant to enter exist in pretty much every single western country.

    Quote Originally Posted by Timbuk2 View Post
    Lack of work.
    Poverty.
    Disenfranchisement.
    Lack of investment and infrastructure in those areas.
    The kinds of areas that the term "no-go zone" tend to be characterized by higher rates of poverty and crime. They are economically and culturally segregated. They have often lost easy access to important institutions (because offices have been moved to cushier areas) and tend to be under-served in many other respects. Their schools are poorly managed and inadequately funded. Their kids are much more likely to leave school without graduating, due to insufficient support at school and at home, and a lower likelihood of getting help from eg. healthcare professionals where necessary. Their members are much more likely to face significant discrimination at every stage of every human pursuit--eg. job application, interview, assessments on the job--and some are discouraged by the apparent futility of trying to make a good life for yourself at an early stage. On top of this, you have criminal gangs--as you do in every western country--who are very good at recruiting young, disillusioned men and who thrive under these circumstances.

    Full-time employment figures for Germany's Muslim population has previously tended to be about the same as for other groups, but I believe these statistics obscure important details about the types of jobs and about income disparities. For the refugees and others who've entered in the past few years, it's important to remember that many have not been permitted to work, so even if their conditions had been excellent--which is certainly not the case--they would be unemployed. I don't believe they're included in the statistics.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
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    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    This is one of the most despicable things I've seen anyone on this forum say. Fortunately, the German govt. does not consist entirely of dipshits.
    How many refugees did the German government airlift and repatriate from the overcrowded and destitute camps in Turkey etc safely and direct to Germany?

    Or did the Germans outsource that responsibility to the people smugglers?

    If Germany did indeed provide proper and safe transport for refugees from the border of Syria etc direct and safe to Germany then I'll apologise for being mistaken. However if they simply offered refuge to those who had already risked their lives by making a dangerous and treacherous journey often in the hands of criminal gangs of people smugglers then they are entirely consisted of dipshits.

    Encouraging the people smugglers who cost lots of lives by cramming people in to shanty boats worse than we would treat livestock is not a moral thing to do, providing transport yourself is. Only a dipshit would reward and encourage that sort of criminal gang people smuggling rather than help those in proper UN-sanctioned refugee camps in bordering nations.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
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    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    Regardless, they are refugees, and Germany accepted them.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

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    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Yes Germany accepted them because she had no other choice because they found their way there on their own backs. Via paying people smugglers or making a very dangerous journey. Germany accepted them until other nations put barriers in the way thus preventing people making their own journey and then tried to use the EU to force other nations into taking the people she'd accepted.

    Germany did the square root of fuck all to actually bring people over safely and humanely.

    "Gamble your life with the people smugglers and we'll take you, stay in a UN camp on the border and you're on your own" is the line of a complete and utter dipshit. It was morally abhorrent. The people smugglers are evil and making that your preferred method of bringing people over rather than chartering flights yourself should be a badge of shame not honour.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

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    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Yes Germany accepted them because she had no other choice because they found their way there on their own backs.
    Not only did Germany accept them but they also have the right to family reunification, which does not require family members to travel to Germany with the help of smugglers. Fact is, your initial claim was wrong no matter how you look at it. Germany accepted refugees, the refugees are not simply "migrants", and more refugees have been or will be accepted by Germany under family reunification policy.

    In case you've forgotten, here's what you said:

    Germany did not accept refugees.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
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    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Germany didn't accept refugees, it accepted asylum seekers who made the journey by themselves. There's a world of difference. "An asylum seeker is someone who is seeking international protection but whose claim for refugee status has not yet been determined. In contrast, a refugee is someone who has been recognised under the 1951 Convention relating to the status of refugees to be a refugee." Those Germany accepted had not yet been recognised so were not refugees.

    At the camps in Turkey etc are organisations like the UN processing asylum seekers and granting refugee status to claimants. If Germany was then taking those people onto planes and transporting them over those would be refugees. Germany didn't do that. Instead over 60 years of legal precedent, best practice, the 1951 Convention and the Dublin Convention were all torn up, the UN was ignored, processing refugees didn't happen and instead Germany gave the biggest green light ever to the human filth who made a killing both metaphorically and literally from shanty boats.

    Dipshits.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

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    SEÑOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Germany didn't accept refugees, it accepted asylum seekers who made the journey by themselves. There's a world of difference. "An asylum seeker is someone who is seeking international protection but whose claim for refugee status has not yet been determined. In contrast, a refugee is someone who has been recognised under the 1951 Convention relating to the status of refugees to be a refugee." Those Germany accepted had not yet been recognised so were not refugees.
    Those who are refugees have had--or will have--their refugee status recognized, and Germany has accepted or will accept them, hence Germany accepted refugees. A person who meets the definition of "refugee" under the convention meets that definition both before and after RSD (for which states have the primary responsibility, not UNHCR). No amount of lame-ass sophistry changes the fact that you were wrong. In addition, in your post you refer to refugees and migrants without using the term "asylum seeker".
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

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    Quote Originally Posted by wiggin View Post
    RB, you can't possibly believe that unemployment rates are a good measure to determine whether there are regions and sub-populations that are still finding it hard to find good employment. First off, unemployment's denominator only includes the people in the labor force and does not include e.g. discouraged workers. Secondly, country-wide unemployment rates tend to mask region or population specific malaise - certainly there are parts of the US and populations in the US that due to structural factors are either under- or unemployed, despite good unemployment numbers. Lastly, the German foreign-born unemployment right is almost double the overall German unemployment rate. I have no doubt that there are other populations that, for one reason or another, still have challenges getting to full employment.

    My company is trying hard to fill a few roles, and we're finding it challenging. Similarly, I get headhunted on a weekly basis. That would suggest - coupled with my state's excellent unemployment rate (3.7%) that we're in an economy at essentially full employment. But this is obviously not true for some people in my state. Due to poor education, or discrimination, or whatever else, there are pockets of people who are unable to find work. These populations often tend to be the most vulnerable as well, and sometimes they cluster in neighborhoods that also have high crime rates. It's not exactly rocket science to argue that improving their economic plight would help reduce the challenges of policing in some of these areas.
    You must be aware of the still relatively generous welfare state you will find in most EU countries; it enables a category of discouraged people of working age to not work. The rules are being toughened up, but if you know the system, you know how to play the rules. That makes nothing of what you said untrue, it's just not very useful as a model to understand the European situation.

    As for the cause asked for; I don't think immigration as such is the problem, I also don't think that the refugees are the problem. What is a problem is a (I think I can safely say by now) toxic mixture of permissiveness driven by a ridiculously high regard for individual freedom and an amazing naivité about the ability of society to absorb big numbers of people from other cultures without any active role for government (national/local) at all in the process of integration. If you come to a country with a comprehensive welfare system from a country where daily life is a struggle, it's not so strange to find that the less inclined will actually not bother to work, and thus effectively set themselves aside from society. Aside from society is where gang-type crime and all kind of extremism flourishes.

    I think that Europe can learn a lot from the USA in this field. Not the USA of Donald Trump, but the USA that for a very long time was very able to absorb and integrate immigrants. And I very much think that USA is what we will see again once Trump has left the White House.
    Greece shows us that there is a kind of politician worse than the ones that break their election promises; the ones that keep their election promises.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    Those who are refugees have had--or will have--their refugee status recognized, and Germany has accepted or will accept them, hence Germany accepted refugees. A person who meets the definition of "refugee" under the convention meets that definition both before and after RSD (for which states have the primary responsibility, not UNHCR). No amount of lame-ass sophistry changes the fact that you were wrong. In addition, in your post you refer to refugees and migrants without using the term "asylum seeker".
    Exactly.
    Greece shows us that there is a kind of politician worse than the ones that break their election promises; the ones that keep their election promises.

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