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Thread: The hurricane that wasn't

  1. #1
    SEŃOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    Default The hurricane that wasn't

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...=.75420f43f433

    Thousands dead, thousands more still living in misery. It is a little remarkable that PR was forgotten so quickly in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
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  2. #2
    "In a field where an overlooked bug could cost millions, you want people who will speak their minds, even if they’re sometimes obnoxious about it."

  3. #3
    That's no moon. EyeKhan's Avatar
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    It's remarkable all right.
    The Rules
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  4. #4
    The study here is showing a death toll greater than Katrina and 9/11 combined. Thats insane.
    "In a field where an overlooked bug could cost millions, you want people who will speak their minds, even if they’re sometimes obnoxious about it."

  5. #5
    All Worship Ragnarök Loki's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    The study here is showing a death toll greater than Katrina and 9/11 combined. Thats insane.
    Different metrics used. Katrina's death toll would probably be much higher if we looked at changes in the mortality rate rather than counting dead bodies.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  6. #6
    Senior Member GGT's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Saying they shouldn't even be allowed to *register* to vote? Wow, that's pathetic



    Anyone who's been following the national news (that Trump loves to call fake news) knows the initial death toll was hugely underestimated, because their infrastructure was totally destroyed. Can't accurately estimate anything related to electricity, including deaths secondary to lack of electricity, when there's no electricity.

    I'm sure the Trump administration will renew its efforts in PR, now that this study has been published. Because he cares about restoring/improving infrastructure for *all* US citizens, and MAGA! /sarcasm

  7. #7
    Administrator Dreadnaught's Avatar
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    I don't doubt the direction of that number, but the methods behind the estimate are tricky.

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsa1803972
    METHODS
    Using a representative, stratified sample, we surveyed 3299 randomly chosen households across Puerto Rico to produce an independent estimate of all-cause mortality after the hurricane. Respondents were asked about displacement, infrastructure loss, and causes of death. We calculated excess deaths by comparing our estimated post-hurricane mortality rate with official rates for the same period in 2016.

    RESULTS
    From the survey data, we estimated a mortality rate of 14.3 deaths (95% confidence interval [CI], 9.8 to 18.9) per 1000 persons from September 20 through December 31, 2017. This rate yielded a total of 4645 excess deaths during this period (95% CI, 793 to 8498), equivalent to a 62% increase in the mortality rate as compared with the same period in 2016. However, this number is likely to be an underestimate because of survivor bias. The mortality rate remained high through the end of December 2017, and one third of the deaths were attributed to delayed or interrupted health care. Hurricane-related migration was substantial.
    This is a smart way to get a snapshot, but given the bad medical recordkeeping as cited in the OPs Washington Post article, can they really be confident of the 1/3 of deaths being attributed to health care issues?

    Their way of counting seems potentially biased by self-reporting, while the actual attribution rate seems lower than one would expect. None of this is meant to diminish the colossal fuckup around Puerto Rico.

  8. #8
    All Worship Ragnarök Loki's Avatar
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    Looks like the real number is closer to 1,000-1,400.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...ane-maria-nope
    Hope is the denial of reality

  9. #9
    SEŃOR Member Aimless's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dreadnaught View Post
    I don't doubt the direction of that number, but the methods behind the estimate are tricky.

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsa1803972


    This is a smart way to get a snapshot, but given the bad medical recordkeeping as cited in the OPs Washington Post article, can they really be confident of the 1/3 of deaths being attributed to health care issues?

    Their way of counting seems potentially biased by self-reporting, while the actual attribution rate seems lower than one would expect. None of this is meant to diminish the colossal fuckup around Puerto Rico.
    No, it really is a bad study, this was my bad. I couldn't access the paper when I posted the article, but looking through it I'm surprised it was published (although not really given the love of sensationalism). See Loki's link for an account of some of the problems.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  10. #10
    Senior Member RandBlade's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Bloody natural born US citizens coming over here and stealing our votes.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

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