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Thread: Where should we get our energy from?

  1. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    * Jared Harris in Chernobyl voice * We're using sub-optimal technology right now.
    Obviously that's true, but that's not the counterfactual - we're imagining a energy mix of mostly solar + storage against some other future energy mix and trying to figure out if it's the best option.

    Pretty much any form of renewable requires storage capacity since they're all intermittent to one degree or another. Oh, except hydro but we all know the problems that can cause.

    The advantage solar has is that it is intermittent on a predictable schedule which can be planned around, whereas the current leading source of renewable energy in the UK - wind - is kinda random
    I think that the schedule is nice - ish, after all you do have to take weather into account - but you need a lot more storage for an equivalent solar capacity vs. wind capacity because in a given geographical region, the lows of solar generation (zero) are far lower than your lowest regional wind generation.

    Also, per your comment later, storage is not currently envisioned to be useful on a seasonal basis, but more on an hour-to-hour and possibly day-to-day basis. The amount of storage you'd need for seasonal storage is staggering, and would only be possible with something like a massive hydro setup.

    I mean, if we're looking at secondary or tertiary costs like materials for construction or foot print we need to do that for all potential sources of power, not just solar. The thing about the costs for solar and other renewable sources is the cost is upfront, not on going (except for occasional replacement and maintenance, also true for fossil fuel and nuclear sources), so once it's paid, it's paid.
    Agreed, the full life cycle costs of all options are important here - that's why fossil fuel plants, while often the 'cheapest' option on the surface, are often the worst option when looked at in a holistic manner. I think you underestimate the recurring costs of renewables, though - sure, there's no fuel cost, but there's plenty of maintenance required, and the generation and storage infrastructure will need regular replacement. It's not a panacea.

    I suspect that solar and wind (and a few other options) will probably take up the bulk of our 'variable' power demands, along with storage. But baseload power is much better addressed by geothermal, hydro, or fission/fusion. And emergency power is going to be hard to beat good ol' fossil fuels.


    (BTW I am well aware that I'm very busily destroying a straw man - your tongue-in-cheek 'solution' was obviously not intended as a energy generation plan, and you have emphasized the need for other sources as well. I'm just trying to discuss the broader complexities of the issues and the fact that there is likely not a one size fits all solution to energy production.)
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  2. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by wiggin View Post
    Obviously that's true, but that's not the counterfactual - we're imagining a energy mix of mostly solar + storage against some other future energy mix and trying to figure out if it's the best option.
    All the options we have are sub-optimal in some way.

    Fossil Fuels: dirty, dangerous, relies on obtaining a particular resource
    Fission: dangerous, expensive, relies on obtaining a particular resource
    Fusion: unproven future tech, expensive
    Wind: intermittent, unpredictable, requires huge ass turbines.
    Solar: intermittent, seasonal
    Hydro: expensive, disrupts land, environmental damaging. You also need a decent river.
    Geothermal: expensive, you can only build the plants in a special place

    Also, per your comment later, storage is not currently envisioned to be useful on a seasonal basis, but more on an hour-to-hour and possibly day-to-day basis. The amount of storage you'd need for seasonal storage is staggering, and would only be possible with something like a massive hydro setup.
    I was wondering about that.

    I think you underestimate the recurring costs of renewables, though - sure, there's no fuel cost, but there's plenty of maintenance required, and the generation and storage infrastructure will need regular replacement. It's not a panacea.
    It's not like fossil and nuclear doesn't also need maintenance. Plus there's the transmission infrastructure, plus there's actually getting the fuel these systems run on and then distributing it.

    One nice thing about solar is you can make a building pretty much look after itself in terms of energy usage, so you can cut down on having to run wires all over the place.

    I suspect that solar and wind (and a few other options) will probably take up the bulk of our 'variable' power demands, along with storage. But baseload power is much better addressed by geothermal, hydro, or fission/fusion. And emergency power is going to be hard to beat good ol' fossil fuels.
    Massive deployment of solar power can severely cut what the baseload actually is, which is good because geothermal and hydro are pretty situational.

    (BTW I am well aware that I'm very busily destroying a straw man - your tongue-in-cheek 'solution' was obviously not intended as a energy generation plan, and you have emphasized the need for other sources as well. I'm just trying to discuss the broader complexities of the issues and the fact that there is likely not a one size fits all solution to energy production.)
    My basic idea is to make as much use of solar power as possible, look whatever capacity gap is left and then bridge it with the most appropriate source. For example; hydroelectric is great if you got the, e.g. Colorado river handy. Wind power is fine, but you need wide open unobstructed spaces for it work well.
    Why do we build the wall, my children, my children? We build the wall to keep us free.
    How does the wall keep us free, my children, my children? The wall keeps out the enemy. And we build the wall to keep us free.
    Who do we call the enemy, my children, my children? The enemy is poverty. And the wall keeps out the enemy. And we build the wall to keep us free.
    That's why we build the wall. We build the wall to keep us free. Because we have and they have not, my children, my my children. Because they want what we have got.
    What do we have that they should want, my children, my children? We have a wall to work upon. We have work and they have none. And our work is never done. And the war is never won.
    The enemy is poverty, the wall keeps out the enemy, and we build the wall to keep us free. That's why we build the wall, we build the wall to keep us free.

  3. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    You can get home batteries that will store the power generated by solar panels for use at night. You can go and buy one right now.

    I don't know why you're quoting current figures like that's the maximum potential of solar when it's hardly used right now. The power output of an average home can be covered by about 15-20 solar panels, so just stick the fucking things everywhere then order a fuck ton of powerwalls off Telsa. Climate crisis solved. You're welcome, future generations.

    Re: Winter. Solar panels work off light, not heat. It still gets light in the winter, although the days are shorter. However, winter conditions are better for solar as the panels are adversely affected by heat. So swings and roundabouts. We should probably have other sources to cover any shortfall by solar should be the mainstay.
    The days are much, much shorter and darker in winter and demand is much, much higher in the winter. It woud take an insane amount of powerwalls to ensure we get enough electricity in winter to cope with demand. Then it also means we would be producing a mammoth amount more electricity in the summer than we would waste as the solar panels work better then while demand is lower.

    Oh and solar + powerwalls costs an insane amount more than alternative sources that actually work for us like wind. Why not just use wind and energy storage on an industrial scale rather than solar?

    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    Iirc in the UK solar power generation capacity during the winter months is about 20-25% of what it is during the summer months. Not bad but not sufficient. For Northern and northwestern Europe, it may be good to decouple heating from other power needs, relying eg. ground source heat pumps and the like for heat, and investing in improving insulation.
    Supply is 20-25% during winter.

    While demand is about 30% higher in the summer.

    ProductionSummer = 4 * ProductionWinter
    DemandWinter = 1.25 * DemandSummer.

    If we produced enough in winter to cover demand via solar we would be literally producing 5x as much as we need during summer. That is never going to be cost effective.

    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    All the options we have are sub-optimal in some way.

    Wind: intermittent, unpredictable, requires huge ass turbines.
    Solar: intermittent, seasonal
    Hydro: expensive, disrupts land, environmental damaging. You also need a decent river.
    Geothermal: expensive, you can only build the plants in a special place
    Winds actually quite predictable, wind can be accurately predicted 48h in advance.
    My basic idea is to make as much use of solar power as possible, look whatever capacity gap is left and then bridge it with the most appropriate source. For example; hydroelectric is great if you got the, e.g. Colorado river handy. Wind power is fine, but you need wide open unobstructed spaces for it work well.
    We have wide open unobstructed spaces.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  4. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    Given that we're also talking about making heavy use of storage here, what's relevant is the power capacity over the year not on any given day or season, and obviously you have to design around the fact that some times of the year and places are going to more productive than others - this is obviously true of all forms of renewable energy. I do, as I said, advocate having other sources as well.
    Wait . . . you want to store power from the summer to get us through the winter? Not just through the night. That's not going to work, the storage required for that would be insane.

    Offshore wind is far more consistent all year long and is more balanced towards demand. Storage to handle spikes of demand or intermittent drops in supply are going to be a fraction of that required to get through an entire winter.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  5. #35
    People are talking about fusion power and orbital solar installations in this thread and I can't get a bit speculative about future development of renewable tech and storage? We can't do the extinction rebellion thing and transition from carbon in 5 years, as nice as that would be, so we need to account for future tech developments.
    Why do we build the wall, my children, my children? We build the wall to keep us free.
    How does the wall keep us free, my children, my children? The wall keeps out the enemy. And we build the wall to keep us free.
    Who do we call the enemy, my children, my children? The enemy is poverty. And the wall keeps out the enemy. And we build the wall to keep us free.
    That's why we build the wall. We build the wall to keep us free. Because we have and they have not, my children, my my children. Because they want what we have got.
    What do we have that they should want, my children, my children? We have a wall to work upon. We have work and they have none. And our work is never done. And the war is never won.
    The enemy is poverty, the wall keeps out the enemy, and we build the wall to keep us free. That's why we build the wall, we build the wall to keep us free.

  6. #36
    If you want to use storage as the solution then why solar from summer stored to get us through the winter rather than wind from past 24 hours stored?

    Wind beats solar because it: works, is more reliable, is cheaper and already consistently provides 10-20% of our energy.

    Solar is amazingly good in sunny climes that need air conditioning during the daytime.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  7. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    You can make solar panels much more efficient during winter than they currently are. Newer models absorb a broader range of light, include wavelengths which are more able to get through clouds. You can also make them so the track the suns position in the sky, so you don't have a problem with the sun being lower in the sky during winter. No getting around the shorter days, though.
    I have no doubt all these improvements are valuable, and I generally support ramping up deployment of solar panels, but I think it's important to note that there will nevertheless be a substantial shortfall in the winter months--even with the improvements you list. It's possible that, in many cases, from an environmental perspective, that money may be better spent on improving insulation and the like first, or investing specifically in better heating solutions such as ground source heating & cooling first.

    RB is exaggerating the predictability & variability of wind-farm power output, but it is true that, with large-scale deployment--at the level some regions already are at--the variability is smoothed out. This is even more true of offshore wind farms. The issue of big-ass turbines everywhere is of course a disadvantage. And deploying solar panels is much, much easier--wrt regulatory issues, political issues, and installation issues--than deploying a bunch of wind turbines.

    RB's criticism that we'd need 5x over-capacity is misguided. As you note, we'd get power from several different sources; there would be no reason to rely exclusively on one or the other. Even if you were to generate much more electricity in the summer than you think you need, I am certain that electricity could be put to good use moving tourists about everywhere in electric vehicles, cooling servers, exporting or whatever. There's always a use for electricity.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  8. #38
    Storage (and transmission) tech is vital if we go full renewable, whatever flavour or combination we use. There was a period of 9 days with basically no wind last summer.
    Why do we build the wall, my children, my children? We build the wall to keep us free.
    How does the wall keep us free, my children, my children? The wall keeps out the enemy. And we build the wall to keep us free.
    Who do we call the enemy, my children, my children? The enemy is poverty. And the wall keeps out the enemy. And we build the wall to keep us free.
    That's why we build the wall. We build the wall to keep us free. Because we have and they have not, my children, my my children. Because they want what we have got.
    What do we have that they should want, my children, my children? We have a wall to work upon. We have work and they have none. And our work is never done. And the war is never won.
    The enemy is poverty, the wall keeps out the enemy, and we build the wall to keep us free. That's why we build the wall, we build the wall to keep us free.

  9. #39
    For sure. I have high hopes for gravity-based storage like Energy Vault's solution, but would also like to see more countries explore seasonal thermal energy storage: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Season...energy_storage
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  10. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    People are talking about fusion power and orbital solar installations in this thread and I can't get a bit speculative about future development of renewable tech and storage? We can't do the extinction rebellion thing and transition from carbon in 5 years, as nice as that would be, so we need to account for future tech developments.
    In fairness, the speculations others are engaging in are regarding forseeable developments or technology which we have but aren't really using right now. Whereas development in storage has been hitting diminishing returns and walls for some time and with no suggestion of breakthroughs to move things along.
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

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