2020 Democratic Primaries

[RandBlade]

Meh there's really nothing to see here. What are the specific steps that you think Trump is not doing that Sanders would have? Ultimately you want people to do a number of things in this sort of situation:

1. Limit international travel
2. Reinforce basic hygiene/flu protocol (wash your fucking hands, sneeze/cough in your arm, if you sick stay home)
3. Prevent panic

That's about it. And Trump is the best at trying to stop international travel

No that's not all you can do! That's not even coming close to a plan.

Very basic first steps.
1. Test everyone in your bloody country at risk of the virus - at the expense of the CDC/Federal Government - for the virus.
2. Quarantine - at the expense of the CDC/Federal Government - everyone who has the virus or who is at risk but can't be tested (yet).
3. Daily updates from the CDC on the spread of the virus and testing.
4. CDC speaking directly to the media, no politician involvement or filtering.

[Lewkowski]

All right let's get some predictions here. Will the virus kill more than the flu in 2020 in America. My guess is no, what do you guys say?

[RandBlade]

All right let's get some predictions here. Will the virus kill more than the flu in 2020 in America. My guess is no, what do you guys say?

Should surely be in the covid thread?

[Steely Glint]

I have to admit, Trump's pro-covid stance is not something I saw coming but I don't think it changes anything. Can't wait for the "Why Curing the Corona-virus Is Just As Bad as the Corona-virus" by Hermen T Serious Centrist op-eds in the New York Times, though.

[RandBlade]

I think it has the potential to change everything. Especially with mass rallies, imagine if someone with COVID goes to a pro-Trump rally and spreads it around the others at the rally.

Its one thing to use the word hoax to dismiss your opponents calls on propriety in Ukraine or other issues that don't affect you. If your loved ones come down with an illness the POTUS dismissed as a hoax and didn't act to curtail then that's another matter. If Trump supporters come down with this hoax how likely are they to go campaigning for him afterwards?

[Ominous Gamer]

I think it has the potential to change everything. Especially with mass rallies, imagine if someone with COVID goes to a pro-Trump rally and spreads it around the others at the rally.

Its one thing to use the word hoax to dismiss your opponents calls on propriety in Ukraine or other issues that don't affect you. If your loved ones come down with an illness the POTUS dismissed as a hoax and didn't act to curtail then that's another matter. If Trump supporters come down with this hoax how likely are they to go campaigning for him afterwards?

CDC reports now have to be approved by the administration. An administration that wanted to rake forests, waterbomb an 800 year old cathedral, nuke a hurricane, and pray away the gay. When shit hits the fan our reported numbers are going to look crazier than Iran's. Calling it a hoax sets it up so that when it does start to hit communities their cries can be written off as just that hoaxes, libtards trolling, etc; isolated away from the rest of the voters. One of Florida's House reps has already accused our state of hiding numbers to protect its tourism industry.

[Steely Glint]

They'll wear "I The Corona Virus" t-shirts and deliberately infect themselves to trigger the libs.

They're already voting for a party who's made it their life-long mission to make healthcare more costly and harder to access, so this is really just cutting out the middle man.

[Aimless]

Which areas and which groups do y'all think will be hit the hardest, and be the most inconvenienced? Non-white Dem-leaning city-dwellers.

[Wraith]

Steyer's out. One vote too late for that to help the other moderates much though.

Looks like Biden's still in this. I don't see Pete dropping, but hopefully Klobuchar will. Warren might too.

[Loki]

Steyer's out. One vote too late for that to help the other moderates much though.

Looks like Biden's still in this. I don't see Pete dropping, but hopefully Klobuchar will. Warren might too.

Klobuchar needs to stick around until Wednesday. She should do well in Minnesota. If she's out, Sanders would get a lot of those delegates.

[Wraith]

Sanders - 58
Biden - 50
Buttigieg - 26
Warren - 8
Klobuchar - 7

Going back to the question of strategic voting on Super Tuesday, Biden's strong showing in SC combined with recency bias is going to mean that he's suddenly back in the game as a viable candidate. A lot of people do strategic voting, even if they don't realize they're doing it, and this many moderate candidates that still look viable is going to make it very difficult to pick the 'correct' one to vote for to beat Sanders. Buttigieg hasn't been able to keep up momentum past the early states, and while Biden is polling a bit better after his victory, he still doesn't look like a credible threat to Sanders. Bloomberg is a spanner in the works since all his focus has been on Super Tuesday and it's not totally clear how his votes are going to go. Klobuchar is definitely DOA though, so don't waste a vote on her. With everything so murky, strategic voters aren't likely to aggregate all on the same candidate, so I'd recommend not trying to vote strategically if you're voting on Tuesday, and just vote your conscience.

It's starting to look like the moderate wing of the party screwed themselves by fielding too many candidates for this primary. It's ridiculous one side can lose an election by being too popular, and I'm wondering how many more times we have to see the most divisive candidate get nominated because there were too many moderates, before people start to realize how dumb this system is and we can maybe consider doing something about it *coughRCVcough*.

[Wraith]

Really? Klobuchar is polling very low, and I think she's pulling from the Biden/Buttigieg voter pool more than the Sanders/Warren one. Steyer was a spoiler for the moderate SC vote that just happened, and I want her out so she doesn't do the same thing on Tuesday.

[Loki]

Really? Klobuchar is polling very low, and I think she's pulling from the Biden/Buttigieg voter pool more than the Sanders/Warren one. Steyer was a spoiler for the moderate SC vote that just happened, and I want her out so she doesn't do the same thing on Tuesday.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/minnesota/

If she drops out, Sanders definitely wins Minnesota.

At this point, I think all hope of getting a good nominee is lost. I'd like to say fuck Bloomberg and Steyer for thinking they could buy this election and just spoiling it instead. While I'm at it, fuck Klobuchar for sticking around this long even when she never had a chance. This better not lead to another 4 years of Trump, because whichever geezer gets picked is still going to be better than him.

Klobuchar is probably the most qualified of the candidates who aren't in their 70s. It's a shame her candidacy was never viable. If not for her treatment of staff, she'd definitely be my top choice.

In a perfect world, it would be her (representing the center) against Warren (representing the left-wing) for the Dem nomination.

[Wraith]

Klobuchar is probably the most qualified of the candidates who aren't in their 70s. It's a shame her candidacy was never viable. If not for her treatment of staff, she'd definitely be my top choice.

In a perfect world, it would be her (representing the center) against Warren (representing the left-wing) for the Dem nomination.

I'd have preferred her to Biden, but she was never viable, and her sticking around mostly helped Bernie.

[Steely Glint]

The assumption that all the non-Warren voters are automatically going to support whoever's against Bernie in a 1v1 contest is or some other voting method is flawed.

The problem the moderates have is their candidates are all mediocre at best. Like, is any moderate in this thread even proactively supporting any of those people, rather than just trying to find the one's going to beat Bernie? Is there any moderate candidate who's gonna get people really passionate about them, and want to get out there and fight for them? That's why they're losing.

That said, yeah, they should totally do RCV. And hold all the primaries on the same day, Christ. It doesn't help anyone to have the party fighting amongst itself for months on end.

[LittleFuzzy]

The assumption that all the non-Warren voters are automatically going to support whoever's against Bernie in a 1v1 contest is or some other voting method is flawed.

The problem the moderates have is their candidates are all mediocre at best. Like, is any moderate in this thread even proactively supporting any of those people, rather than just trying to find the one's going to beat Bernie? Is there any moderate candidate who's gonna get people really passionate about them, and want to get out there and fight for them? That's why they're losing.

That said, yeah, they should totally do RCV. And hold all the primaries on the same day, Christ. It doesn't help anyone to have the party fighting amongst itself for months on end.

RCV, yes. Holding everything on the same day? Eeuh... The process is way too extended, yes and needs to be shorter. But we also need SOME kind of winnowing process. RCV alone isn't going to cut it. We had how many people still running at the beginning of the year? And they're ALL going to stay in under an RCV system. Everyone voting on the same day under those conditions is either going to just throw the results to brokered conventions again or directly hand it to whoever had the highest name recognition on the selected day. Either case means we can just dispense with the primary entirely. We'd probably do better doing mandating two elections, one to cut things down and then a run-off between the 2-4 best performers and in that case we might end up dispensing with the RCV too.

[Steely Glint]

No direct data since most of them won't admit it, and many don't even realize they're doing it. The bandwagon effect is a well documented phenomena if you're questioning whether it's a real thing. We know it happens, but pinning down the exact scale is tricky. I brought it up mostly just because I'm trying to make the point that a lot of damage is already done, and even if we switched to RCV for the rest of this election, it's too late to undo a lot of the damage that's already been caused by not having it for this election.

Or maybe left of center ideas aren't as unpopular in the US as is commonly assumed, but rather held back by a self-perpetuating perception that they "can't" win?

RCV, yes. Holding everything on the same day? Eeuh... The process is way too extended, yes and needs to be shorter. But we also need SOME kind of winnowing process. RCV alone isn't going to cut it. We had how many people still running at the beginning of the year? And they're ALL going to stay in under an RCV system. Everyone voting on the same day under those conditions is either going to just throw the results to brokered conventions again or directly hand it to whoever had the highest name recognition on the selected day. Either case means we can just dispense with the primary entirely. We'd probably do better doing mandating two elections, one to cut things down and then a run-off between the 2-4 best performers and in that case we might end up dispensing with the RCV too.

This is unobjectionable to me, but is 2-4 best performers really that different from what we have no, once you shake out the no hopers and weirdos? Like, right now we have 5 4 (lol) candidates who regular poll north of 10%. And I doubt Bloomberg's candidacy would happen under this system, since he only decided to run because he saw Biden was failing.

[Wraith]

Or maybe left of center ideas aren't as unpopular in the US as is commonly assumed, but rather held back by a self-perpetuating perception that they "can't" win?

Let's implement RCV and find out.

[Steely Glint]

That makes things a bit easier then. The strategic centrist vote should be for Biden. God I hope he won't fuck up the general.

I think this has been true for a while now, but in honour of this development,

Twitter Link

I kinda want to see Trump and Biden debate, I think it would be a dadaist masterpiece. I want you guys to have healthcare more, mind, but it's always there in the back of my mind.

Let's implement RCV and find out.

Get rid of electoral college while you're at it.

[LittleFuzzy]

Or maybe left of center ideas aren't as unpopular in the US as is commonly assumed, but rather held back by a self-perpetuating perception that they "can't" win?

Oh, they're quite popular. . . with a large part of the Democratic Party.

Hey Loki, other than FDR who was running under a rather unusual set of circumstances, when was the last time a nominee won the general election when pushing a genuinely left-wing policy agenda? Kennedy won by challenging the Republicans on defense. There HAVE been nominees taking that line, after all. What did Carter push when running against Ford? He ran as a moderate, right?

[Loki]

Oh, they're quite popular. . . with a large part of the Democratic Party.

Hey Loki, other than FDR who was running under a rather unusual set of circumstances, when was the last time a nominee won the general election when pushing a genuinely left-wing policy agenda? Kennedy won by challenging the Republicans on defense. There HAVE been nominees taking that line, after all. What did Carter push when running against Ford? He ran as a moderate, right?

Carter did run as an anti-establishment candidate, the last time that strategy won someone the Democratic nomination (he was also the most recent nominee from either party before 2016 to lose the invisible primary but win the real primary). But he was also a religious peanut farmer who successfully appealed to Republican (and lapsed Democratic) voters.

But the whole left-wing impetus is a function of the millennial reaction to the 2008 economic crisis. Unfortunate, this impetus will only get stronger as those people get older and thus more likely to vote.

[Wraith]

You're discounting the voters who just like to vote for the winner, which right now looks like Sanders. Sanders would lose support just by not being in the lead. There's also the infighting among the moderates all jockeying for the same votes which pushes people away from various candidates they'd otherwise support. If the moderate side had a narrower field, the current outcome would look a lot less like Sanders has a lock on the nom.

[Steely Glint]

Is there any data on how many of these voters there are?

[Wraith]

No direct data since most of them won't admit it, and many don't even realize they're doing it. The bandwagon effect is a well documented phenomena if you're questioning whether it's a real thing. We know it happens, but pinning down the exact scale is tricky. I brought it up mostly just because I'm trying to make the point that a lot of damage is already done, and even if we switched to RCV for the rest of this election, it's too late to undo a lot of the damage that's already been caused by not having it for this election.

[RandBlade]

Pete's out.

Wonder how many will have voted for him anyway via early voting for Super Tuesday. Don't know who I want to win now, urgh torn between someone who dodged all but one debate and flopped the last one, or a borderline senile old man who isn't fit to run the race. What a choice!

[Wraith]

Pete's out.

Wonder how many will have voted for him anyway via early voting for Super Tuesday. Don't know who I want to win now, urgh torn between someone who dodged all but one debate and flopped the last one, or a borderline senile old man who isn't fit to run the race. What a choice!

That makes things a bit easier then. The strategic centrist vote should be for Biden. God I hope he won't fuck up the general.

[RandBlade]

That makes things a bit easier then. The strategic centrist vote should be for Biden. God I hope he won't fuck up the general.

Why would he fuck up the general? He's only a borderline senile, dithering old fart who can't get to the end of his sentences. What could possibly go wrong?

The DNC is in no fit state. Someone serious should have stepped in. Where are the experienced but sane and not septuagenarian Senators and Governors? Sherrod Brown or someone like him. The DNC can't run a pissup in a brewery it seems.

[LittleFuzzy]

Why would he fuck up the general? He's only a borderline senile, dithering old fart who can't get to the end of his sentences. What could possibly go wrong?

The DNC is in no fit state. Someone serious should have stepped in. Where are the experienced but sane and not septuagenarian Senators and Governors? Sherrod Brown or someone like him. The DNC can't run a pissup in a brewery it seems.

Well, part of the problem is that the DNC DOESN'T run it. It doesn't have a whole lot of influence on who runs (it has more influence over Congressional races) and it's been kinda hamstrung by Bernie and his supporters who are pretty insistent that the only reason they lost of Hillary in 2016 was because the DNC was trying to screw them and the party membership. I don't know about the senators (other than Kamala Harris who I personally can't stand) but there were three such governors in the race. I liked Inslee myself. He and whoever it is in Colorado dropped out over the summer, Bullock from Montana stuck it out until December. Because when you can't out-fundraise or out-poll the mayor of a small city in Indiana, you have no business running for President. Wraith says "fuck Bloomberg and Steyer", you say fuck Biden, I say fuck Buttigieg.

[Wraith]

Wraith says "fuck Bloomberg and Steyer", you say fuck Biden, I say fuck Buttigieg.

Let's just say fuck 'em all to cover our bases.

[Aimless]

Thank Iowa and NH.