2020 Democratic Primaries

[Steely Glint]

The assumption that all the non-Warren voters are automatically going to support whoever's against Bernie in a 1v1 contest is or some other voting method is flawed.

The problem the moderates have is their candidates are all mediocre at best. Like, is any moderate in this thread even proactively supporting any of those people, rather than just trying to find the one's going to beat Bernie? Is there any moderate candidate who's gonna get people really passionate about them, and want to get out there and fight for them? That's why they're losing.

That said, yeah, they should totally do RCV. And hold all the primaries on the same day, Christ. It doesn't help anyone to have the party fighting amongst itself for months on end.

[Wraith]

You're discounting the voters who just like to vote for the winner, which right now looks like Sanders. Sanders would lose support just by not being in the lead. There's also the infighting among the moderates all jockeying for the same votes which pushes people away from various candidates they'd otherwise support. If the moderate side had a narrower field, the current outcome would look a lot less like Sanders has a lock on the nom.

[Steely Glint]

Is there any data on how many of these voters there are?

[Wraith]

No direct data since most of them won't admit it, and many don't even realize they're doing it. The bandwagon effect is a well documented phenomena if you're questioning whether it's a real thing. We know it happens, but pinning down the exact scale is tricky. I brought it up mostly just because I'm trying to make the point that a lot of damage is already done, and even if we switched to RCV for the rest of this election, it's too late to undo a lot of the damage that's already been caused by not having it for this election.

[LittleFuzzy]

The assumption that all the non-Warren voters are automatically going to support whoever's against Bernie in a 1v1 contest is or some other voting method is flawed.

The problem the moderates have is their candidates are all mediocre at best. Like, is any moderate in this thread even proactively supporting any of those people, rather than just trying to find the one's going to beat Bernie? Is there any moderate candidate who's gonna get people really passionate about them, and want to get out there and fight for them? That's why they're losing.

That said, yeah, they should totally do RCV. And hold all the primaries on the same day, Christ. It doesn't help anyone to have the party fighting amongst itself for months on end.

RCV, yes. Holding everything on the same day? Eeuh... The process is way too extended, yes and needs to be shorter. But we also need SOME kind of winnowing process. RCV alone isn't going to cut it. We had how many people still running at the beginning of the year? And they're ALL going to stay in under an RCV system. Everyone voting on the same day under those conditions is either going to just throw the results to brokered conventions again or directly hand it to whoever had the highest name recognition on the selected day. Either case means we can just dispense with the primary entirely. We'd probably do better doing mandating two elections, one to cut things down and then a run-off between the 2-4 best performers and in that case we might end up dispensing with the RCV too.

[RandBlade]

Pete's out.

Wonder how many will have voted for him anyway via early voting for Super Tuesday. Don't know who I want to win now, urgh torn between someone who dodged all but one debate and flopped the last one, or a borderline senile old man who isn't fit to run the race. What a choice!

[Steely Glint]

No direct data since most of them won't admit it, and many don't even realize they're doing it. The bandwagon effect is a well documented phenomena if you're questioning whether it's a real thing. We know it happens, but pinning down the exact scale is tricky. I brought it up mostly just because I'm trying to make the point that a lot of damage is already done, and even if we switched to RCV for the rest of this election, it's too late to undo a lot of the damage that's already been caused by not having it for this election.

Or maybe left of center ideas aren't as unpopular in the US as is commonly assumed, but rather held back by a self-perpetuating perception that they "can't" win?

RCV, yes. Holding everything on the same day? Eeuh... The process is way too extended, yes and needs to be shorter. But we also need SOME kind of winnowing process. RCV alone isn't going to cut it. We had how many people still running at the beginning of the year? And they're ALL going to stay in under an RCV system. Everyone voting on the same day under those conditions is either going to just throw the results to brokered conventions again or directly hand it to whoever had the highest name recognition on the selected day. Either case means we can just dispense with the primary entirely. We'd probably do better doing mandating two elections, one to cut things down and then a run-off between the 2-4 best performers and in that case we might end up dispensing with the RCV too.

This is unobjectionable to me, but is 2-4 best performers really that different from what we have no, once you shake out the no hopers and weirdos? Like, right now we have 5 4 (lol) candidates who regular poll north of 10%. And I doubt Bloomberg's candidacy would happen under this system, since he only decided to run because he saw Biden was failing.

[Wraith]

Pete's out.

Wonder how many will have voted for him anyway via early voting for Super Tuesday. Don't know who I want to win now, urgh torn between someone who dodged all but one debate and flopped the last one, or a borderline senile old man who isn't fit to run the race. What a choice!

That makes things a bit easier then. The strategic centrist vote should be for Biden. God I hope he won't fuck up the general.

[Wraith]

Or maybe left of center ideas aren't as unpopular in the US as is commonly assumed, but rather held back by a self-perpetuating perception that they "can't" win?

Let's implement RCV and find out.

[Steely Glint]

That makes things a bit easier then. The strategic centrist vote should be for Biden. God I hope he won't fuck up the general.

I think this has been true for a while now, but in honour of this development,

Twitter Link

I kinda want to see Trump and Biden debate, I think it would be a dadaist masterpiece. I want you guys to have healthcare more, mind, but it's always there in the back of my mind.

Let's implement RCV and find out.

Get rid of electoral college while you're at it.

[RandBlade]

That makes things a bit easier then. The strategic centrist vote should be for Biden. God I hope he won't fuck up the general.

Why would he fuck up the general? He's only a borderline senile, dithering old fart who can't get to the end of his sentences. What could possibly go wrong?

The DNC is in no fit state. Someone serious should have stepped in. Where are the experienced but sane and not septuagenarian Senators and Governors? Sherrod Brown or someone like him. The DNC can't run a pissup in a brewery it seems.

[Aimless]

Thank Iowa and NH.

[Wraith]

At this point, I think all hope of getting a good nominee is lost. I'd like to say fuck Bloomberg and Steyer for thinking they could buy this election and just spoiling it instead. While I'm at it, fuck Klobuchar for sticking around this long even when she never had a chance. This better not lead to another 4 years of Trump, because whichever geezer gets picked is still going to be better than him.

[Loki]

Really? Klobuchar is polling very low, and I think she's pulling from the Biden/Buttigieg voter pool more than the Sanders/Warren one. Steyer was a spoiler for the moderate SC vote that just happened, and I want her out so she doesn't do the same thing on Tuesday.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/minnesota/

If she drops out, Sanders definitely wins Minnesota.

At this point, I think all hope of getting a good nominee is lost. I'd like to say fuck Bloomberg and Steyer for thinking they could buy this election and just spoiling it instead. While I'm at it, fuck Klobuchar for sticking around this long even when she never had a chance. This better not lead to another 4 years of Trump, because whichever geezer gets picked is still going to be better than him.

Klobuchar is probably the most qualified of the candidates who aren't in their 70s. It's a shame her candidacy was never viable. If not for her treatment of staff, she'd definitely be my top choice.

In a perfect world, it would be her (representing the center) against Warren (representing the left-wing) for the Dem nomination.

[Lewkowski]

Klobuchar has never impressed me in the debates. She seems almost shaky when she tries to get a point across.

[GGT]

Buttigieg dropping out made sense, to narrow the field. (I like him even more for being clear-headed and he's young enough to have a great future in politics.)

It's going to be a race between the centrists and the left-wing, as Loki said. Biden/Bloomberg v Sanders/Warren? I guess we'll find out after Super Tuesday how the delegate count goes, and who gets endorsements. It's a craptastic process.

[Wraith]

Klobuchar is probably the most qualified of the candidates who aren't in their 70s. It's a shame her candidacy was never viable. If not for her treatment of staff, she'd definitely be my top choice.

In a perfect world, it would be her (representing the center) against Warren (representing the left-wing) for the Dem nomination.

I'd have preferred her to Biden, but she was never viable, and her sticking around mostly helped Bernie.

[GGT]

Klobuchar might have been "viable" if Biden (or Bloomberg) had stayed out of the race and thrown their political clout (and money) her way.

And oh yeah, that higher standard for female candidates.

[Loki]

Klobuchar has never impressed me in the debates. She seems almost shaky when she tries to get a point across.

Do you know anyone who changed their mind about who to vote for in the general election based on debate performances?

[RandBlade]

At this point, I think all hope of getting a good nominee is lost. I'd like to say fuck Bloomberg and Steyer for thinking they could buy this election and just spoiling it instead. While I'm at it, fuck Klobuchar for sticking around this long even when she never had a chance. This better not lead to another 4 years of Trump, because whichever geezer gets picked is still going to be better than him.

How about fuck Biden for thinking he was capable of doing this job when he was too old and incompetent already 4 years ago.

[LittleFuzzy]

Or maybe left of center ideas aren't as unpopular in the US as is commonly assumed, but rather held back by a self-perpetuating perception that they "can't" win?

Oh, they're quite popular. . . with a large part of the Democratic Party.

Hey Loki, other than FDR who was running under a rather unusual set of circumstances, when was the last time a nominee won the general election when pushing a genuinely left-wing policy agenda? Kennedy won by challenging the Republicans on defense. There HAVE been nominees taking that line, after all. What did Carter push when running against Ford? He ran as a moderate, right?

[LittleFuzzy]

Why would he fuck up the general? He's only a borderline senile, dithering old fart who can't get to the end of his sentences. What could possibly go wrong?

The DNC is in no fit state. Someone serious should have stepped in. Where are the experienced but sane and not septuagenarian Senators and Governors? Sherrod Brown or someone like him. The DNC can't run a pissup in a brewery it seems.

Well, part of the problem is that the DNC DOESN'T run it. It doesn't have a whole lot of influence on who runs (it has more influence over Congressional races) and it's been kinda hamstrung by Bernie and his supporters who are pretty insistent that the only reason they lost of Hillary in 2016 was because the DNC was trying to screw them and the party membership. I don't know about the senators (other than Kamala Harris who I personally can't stand) but there were three such governors in the race. I liked Inslee myself. He and whoever it is in Colorado dropped out over the summer, Bullock from Montana stuck it out until December. Because when you can't out-fundraise or out-poll the mayor of a small city in Indiana, you have no business running for President. Wraith says "fuck Bloomberg and Steyer", you say fuck Biden, I say fuck Buttigieg.

[Steely Glint]

Ok, so I think what will happen is Sanders will win a plurality but not a majority of delegates, and the convention will gift the nomination to Biden, resulting in some (this time, justifiably) very unhappy Bernie supporters, severely (but not terminally) harming Biden's chances in the General.

Because as far as these quote unquote "moderates" are concerned Fascism > Socialism.

[Loki]

Oh, they're quite popular. . . with a large part of the Democratic Party.

Hey Loki, other than FDR who was running under a rather unusual set of circumstances, when was the last time a nominee won the general election when pushing a genuinely left-wing policy agenda? Kennedy won by challenging the Republicans on defense. There HAVE been nominees taking that line, after all. What did Carter push when running against Ford? He ran as a moderate, right?

Carter did run as an anti-establishment candidate, the last time that strategy won someone the Democratic nomination (he was also the most recent nominee from either party before 2016 to lose the invisible primary but win the real primary). But he was also a religious peanut farmer who successfully appealed to Republican (and lapsed Democratic) voters.

But the whole left-wing impetus is a function of the millennial reaction to the 2008 economic crisis. Unfortunate, this impetus will only get stronger as those people get older and thus more likely to vote.

[Loki]

Ok, so I think what will happen is Sanders will win a plurality but not a majority of delegates, and the convention will gift the nomination to Biden, resulting in some (this time, justifiably) very unhappy Bernie supporters, severely (but not terminally) harming Biden's chances in the General.

Because as far as these quote unquote "moderates" are concerned Fascism > Socialism.

The other way to interpret that is that Bernie Bros are entitled, privileged brats who'd rather see a second Trump presidency than a non-Bernie Democratic nominee. Which isn't surprising considering Bernie isn't an actual Democrat and has made clear his hatred of the party in the past (which included equating JFK with Nixon).

[Aimless]

Ok, so I think what will happen is Sanders will win a plurality but not a majority of delegates, and the convention will gift the nomination to Biden, resulting in some (this time, justifiably) very unhappy Bernie supporters, severely (but not terminally) harming Biden's chances in the General.

Because as far as these quote unquote "moderates" are concerned Fascism > Socialism.

You... you just said that as far as these quote-unquote "progressives" are concerned, fascism > left-leaning centrism

[Steely Glint]

Normally, I have no patience for the #BernieOrBust shit for that exact reason, and it was infantile last time when Clinton was the clear winner, but I'd have hard time blaming people for being pissed if Bernie actually did get the highest number of votes and the DNC was like "nah" anyway.

[Loki]

Normally, I have no patience for the #BernieOrBust shit for that exact reason, and it was infantile last time when Clinton was the clear winner, but I'd have hard time blaming people for being pissed if Bernie actually did get the highest number of votes and the DNC was like "nah" anyway.

You mean being angry because Bernie would lose according to rules he himself pushed for in 2016 and after Bernie spent months in 2016 urging superdelegates to make him the nominee despite getting a minority of the vote? Like I said, entitled privileged brats.

[RandBlade]

Carter did run as an anti-establishment candidate, the last time that strategy won someone the Democratic nomination (he was also the most recent nominee from either party before 2016 to lose the invisible primary but win the real primary). But he was also a religious peanut farmer who successfully appealed to Republican (and lapsed Democratic) voters.

But the whole left-wing impetus is a function of the millennial reaction to the 2008 economic crisis. Unfortunate, this impetus will only get stronger as those people get older and thus more likely to vote.

I don't think so, so long as the boomers stop screwing over the millenials and as the millenials grow up and make something for themselves. Protecting the market economy doesn't mean much to someone who can't afford anything in the market economy.

There's a reason people get more economically conservative as they grow up. Its easy to scream about turning over the applecart and calling for socialism when you don't own anything and just have debts. On the other hand as you grow up and hopefully pay off your debts and acquire assets like a house or shares etc then suddenly socialism is less appealing.

The GOP has ceased to be a rightwing party economically and is instead a religious/racist collective. Both parties in America atm are failing and need a shakeup. The way to make the young more conservative is to show them how the market economy can work for them and ensure they have something of their own. I believe you used to call it "the American dream".

[Wraith]

Wraith says "fuck Bloomberg and Steyer", you say fuck Biden, I say fuck Buttigieg.

Let's just say fuck 'em all to cover our bases.