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Thread: 2020 Democratic Primaries

  1. #61
    I am a registered Democrat. The bureaucracy and academy tends to discriminate against those who openly question it.

  2. #62
    Do they force you to show your party membership card to be allowed into parties? I hear Dershowitz lost his.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  3. #63
    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    Do they force you to show your party membership card to be allowed into parties?
    Yes, in most states (where allowed) political parties require you to prove your party membership to vote in their primaries

  4. #64
    I hear those are hard to obtain (22 states have open primaries by the way).
    Hope is the denial of reality

  5. #65
    Quote Originally Posted by Dreadnaught View Post
    Yes, in most states (where allowed) political parties require you to prove your party membership to vote in their primaries
    Not in TX, my friend is hardcore Yang supporter and wants me to vote for him in the primary.

  6. #66
    I see illegal train advertisements for Yang (people stick index cards in front of the real ads).

    He might be the sleeper Ron Paul of 2020.

  7. #67
    Q4 Fundraising numbers are coming in. Still waiting on Biden and Warren, but extrapolating from earlier numbers it looks like Mayor Pete may have beat them both.

    Bernie Sanders - $34.5M
    Pete Buttigieg - $24.7M
    Andrew Yang - $16.5M

    If I ever redo my power rankings, I think I'll have to move Sanders to the top. Lots of guesswork here, but I'm expecting Warren to land around $20-23M, and Biden at around $18-20M. It's going to be embarrassing for Biden's campaign if he didn't beat Yang's numbers when he has 6x the polling numbers. Hopefully having the first debate he didn't fuck up boosted his fundraising numbers.

    Steyer and Bloomberg are of course still billionaires, and don't need to appeal to the masses to fund their campaigns. I guess Klobuchar is still around too, but I don't know why.

  8. #68
    Biden's numbers are in:

    Bernie Sanders - $34.5M
    Pete Buttigieg - $24.7M
    Joe Biden - $22.7M
    Andrew Yang - $16.5M

    Biden did better than I expected, considering that he only broke $15M a few weeks ago. If Warren doesn't announce tomorrow it'll probably be because she didn't break $20M. She may be the only candidate with lower Q4 numbers than Q3 - not remotely a good sign.

  9. #69
    Both Warren and Biden have a large number of bandwagon supporters. Once Buttigieg got hot, a lot of those Warren supporters moved to Buttigieg's camp. Her best hope is he loses Iowa and New Hampshire, thereby crippling his momentum. But if Biden wins those states, he'll be all but impossible to beat. She should probably be hoping for a strong Sanders performance.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  10. #70
    I was with you up until Biden becoming unbeatable - the only way Biden wins is if both Sanders and Warren stay in the race without either of them pulling too far ahead of the other. Biden's starting to turn his campaign around, but he still hasn't stopped the bleeding. He's more of an obstacle in this campaign than a player. If Mayor Pete manages to push Warren out of the race, that's the death knell for Biden's campaign.

  11. #71
    Stop what bleeding? Biden's numbers haven't changed since July.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...tion-6730.html

    And I did say "if Biden wins those states". I'm not saying he will. As for Buttigieg: he's still polling in the single digits outside of the first few states. His support mostly comes from college-educated whites. Most of Biden's support comes from African Americans and non-college-educated whites. Buttigieg isn't a threat to Biden. He's only a threat to Warren, who shares his base.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  12. #72
    National poll totals are poor indicators this early in the election, and there haven't been many quality polls since November. Look deeper. Biden's popular among the uneducated and the elderly, and unpopular with most others. These groups are nice to have because they change their opinions very slowly, but they do change eventually, and tend to change in the same direction as the more flexible demographics. He peaked way too early, before the election even really began. His favorability ratings have been on the decline and he consistently scores below both Warren and Sanders in all groupings (democrat, swing voter, all). To me, all the indicators say that Biden's coasting on name recognition, and it's taking all his effort just to slow his losses - he's not making significant gains anywhere. He also still has a tendency to push people away whenever he opens his mouth, especially remarkable since he's a pretty moderate candidate and none of his policies are very radical. He might be starting to turn his campaign around, so he's not totally out, but if he can't start converting other candidate's supporters to his camp, his chances are going to rely on keeping enough other candidates in the race long enough to prevent each other from getting too far ahead of him.

    This is another opportunity to point out that this voting situation is ridiculous and we really should have ranked choice voting everywhere. The outcome shouldn't depend so much on how long the losers keep competing.

    Switching topics, I think Warren would do well to start making electability more of an issue. It might be a bit risky, but I think she's got the strongest case for being able to beat Trump in the general election among the front-runners. It'd just be a bit tricky because the things that make them less electable in the general won't hurt them in the primary (except maybe the age thing), and if she looks like she's attacking them on the basis of those things instead of on electability she could push people away. If her Q4 numbers are as low as I expect though, it might be worth the risk.

  13. #73
    Quote Originally Posted by Wraith View Post
    Switching topics, I think Warren would do well to start making electability more of an issue. It might be a bit risky, but I think she's got the strongest case for being able to beat Trump in the general election among the front-runners.
    I'm curious as to how you came to this conclusion.

  14. #74
    I'm really surprised at the number of people I know sticking with Sanders. And clearly they are voting with their wallets too.

    I can't wait for actual caucusing/voting to start.

  15. #75
    Quote Originally Posted by Enoch the Red View Post
    I'm curious as to how you came to this conclusion.
    Sanders = geriatric commie
    Buttigieg = gay
    Biden = Sleepy Joe who Trump's been practicing tearing down for years, plus the whole thing with his son

    It's not going to be a clean fight in the general, and Warren's got the weakest vulnerabilities of the type that Trump would exploit. I think the shifting ethnicity thing has already played out.

    Although TBF, I really do think that any of them would beat Trump.
    Last edited by Wraith; 01-03-2020 at 06:02 PM.

  16. #76
    Finished fundraising numbers:

    Bernie Sanders - $34.5M
    Pete Buttigieg - $24.7M
    Joe Biden - $22.7M
    Elizabeth Warren - $21.2M
    Andrew Yang - $16.5M
    Amy Klobuchar - $11.4M

    Warren raised $24.6M in Q3, so she has the dubious honor of being the only one who had a worse Q4.

  17. #77
    Spent a few hours with friend who I didn't know was passionate about Sanders, because he kept it to himself in 2016 and until recently but has now "come out". And was visiting another friend when I saw Sanders canvassers parked themselves outside a grocery store.

    It's insane but impressive.

  18. #78
    Quote Originally Posted by Wraith View Post
    Sanders = geriatric commie
    Buttigieg = gay
    Biden = Sleepy Joe who Trump's been practicing tearing down for years, plus the whole thing with his son

    It's not going to be a clean fight in the general, and Warren's got the weakest vulnerabilities of the type that Trump would exploit. I think the shifting ethnicity thing has already played out.

    Although TBF, I really do think that any of them would beat Trump.
    You think in 2020 being gay will be a reason to be unelectable?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  19. #79
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    You think in 2020 being gay will be a reason to be unelectable?
    2 out of 5 voters say they aren't ready to have an openly gay president and slightly more believe their neighbors aren't ready to have an openly gay president. Had it not been for the electoral college, that would perhaps not have been a major problem, but the EC can boost the influence of homophobic voters.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  20. #80
    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    2 out of 5 voters say they aren't ready to have an openly gay president and slightly more believe their neighbors aren't ready to have an openly gay president. Had it not been for the electoral college, that would perhaps not have been a major problem, but the EC can boost the influence of homophobic voters.
    How many of those 2 out of 5 would vote Democrat anyway?

    I am as economically dry and right-wing as it gets but if I was an American I would 100% vote Democrat (unless Sanders/Warren were the candidates in which case I'd be torn between Democrat and Libertarian). The modern Trump GOP is disgusting.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  21. #81

  22. #82
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    How many of those 2 out of 5 would vote Democrat anyway?
    People do still need to be swayed, and the Democrats lost against Trump last time. Democrats just need to look like they'll be less bad than Trump, and the segment of the population that thinks homosexuality is a sin might not swing blue just because of this.

  23. #83
    Trouble in socialist paradise with Bernie and Warren.

    https://www.latimes.com/politics/sto...ebate-exchange

  24. #84
    I missed the last debate. Any good Biden flubs? Did it give any indicators on Warren's trajectory?

  25. #85
    Don't confuse the debates with primaries. The first votes start today (no-excuse in-person absentee in MN).

  26. #86
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  27. #87
    The "mistreating" staff part gets a whole sentence? And the idea Klobucher is most electable is just bizarre. I have yet to read a NY Times editorial that didn't make me think even worse of their editorial team.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  28. #88
    I don't care enough to bypass the paywall. Did they figure out why Klobuchar is still here? Does it have to do with the Freemasons?

  29. #89
    She's their favorite "moderate". Warren is their favorite extremist. NYT did a "por que no los dos!" on the whole thing.


  30. #90
    The left becoming unhinged about Bernie campaign accepting Rogan's "endorsement" has been quite amusing.

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