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Thread: 2020 Democratic Primaries

  1. #151
    I don't think we're actually too far apart on this - we need the electorate to start helping get the right people into power, and I would prioritize any changes that would enable them to do so. I might even be able to stomach 4 more years of Trump if it got us Ranked Choice Voting. That was a really hard sentence to type. Unfortunately our current system is set up to favor all the wrong people, and it breeds the us vs. them mentality that's been so destructive. I don't see a lot of ways out of this - these bad patterns have been allowed to become self-reinforcing.

  2. #152
    Where we disagree is that I see US politics changing, and I expect even more dramatic changes—for the better—in the years to come. Voters in states, counties, cities all over the US are taking small but important steps to change the political system, eg. by electing leaders more focused on rehabilitation than on simply appearing tough on crime, taking measures to facilitate voting for those groups who have traditionally faced greater obstacles or outright disenfranchisement, opposing measures that obstruct political participation, etc. I don't think you're likely to see eg. Ranked Choice Voting anytime soon, but politics is slowly being reformed nevertheless. The most important political change you need to see in the US is greater political engagement, with more people voting at every level, and I think that's going to happen, albeit slowly.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  3. #153
    I don't think you're right, but I really hope you are.

  4. #154
    Joe Biden has a delectability problem:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/30/u...dian-food.html
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  5. #155
    Joe Biden has a problem getting to the end of a sentence. He should not be a candidate, its embarrassing.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  6. #156
    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    Where we disagree is that I see US politics changing, and I expect even more dramatic changes—for the better—in the years to come. Voters in states, counties, cities all over the US are taking small but important steps to change the political system, eg. by electing leaders more focused on rehabilitation than on simply appearing tough on crime, taking measures to facilitate voting for those groups who have traditionally faced greater obstacles or outright disenfranchisement, opposing measures that obstruct political participation, etc. I don't think you're likely to see eg. Ranked Choice Voting anytime soon, but politics is slowly being reformed nevertheless. The most important political change you need to see in the US is greater political engagement, with more people voting at every level, and I think that's going to happen, albeit slowly.
    wut
    The Rules
    Copper- behave toward others to elicit treatment you would like (the manipulative rule)
    Gold- treat others how you would like them to treat you (the self regard rule)
    Platinum - treat others the way they would like to be treated (the PC rule)

  7. #157
    Well, Iowa's vote is an unrecoverable pile of garbage now. Precincts have been recorded as having results that are impossible, numerous reports from precinct captains that the official vote counts don't match what they wrote on their forms, and reports of entire groups of voters just disappearing from the tallies. And that's on top of all the accusations of cheating on caucus night. The DNC has ordered a full recanvas, but without rerunning the whole caucus I don't see any hope of getting accurate results from Iowa, ever.

    I doubt the recanvas is going to move the needle significantly, so here's the results:


    Sorry about the hard-to-read chart, it's the first one I found that had all the information.

    Awarded National Delegates:
    Buttigieg - 13
    Sanders - 12
    Warren - 8
    Biden - 6
    Klobuchar - 1

    Let's never do another caucus again.

  8. #158
    What an absolute cluster fuck.

  9. #159
    Interesting numbers relating to Pete's and Bloomberg's viability.

    Last edited by Loki; 02-10-2020 at 07:47 PM.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  10. #160
    That's a lot of fast gains for Bloomberg. I'm more interested in the fast fall of Biden it depicts - I didn't expect him to win this, but his campaign is falling a lot faster than I thought it would. With his admission in the last debate that he probably won't do well in New Hampshire, I'm starting to doubt even a well split vote can get him the nomination.

  11. #161
    A disastrous performance for Bloomberg, Klobucher, and Buttigieg on Super Tuesday would force moderates back to Biden. Not impossible, but I wouldn't bet on it. A defeat in South Carolina would be extremely difficult to recover from though.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  12. #162
    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    A disastrous performance for Bloomberg, Klobucher, and Buttigieg on Super Tuesday would force moderates back to Biden. Not impossible, but I wouldn't bet on it. A defeat in South Carolina would be extremely difficult to recover from though.
    At this rate I think even a disastrous performance for Bloomberg, Klobuchar and Buttigieg doesn't rule out a disastrous performance from Biden too.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  13. #163

  14. #164
    For comparison purposes once the results come in, here's the expected results from yesterday's polls:

    Real Clear Politics
    Sanders: 28.7%
    Buttigieg: 21.3%
    Klobuchar: 11.7%
    Warren: 11.0%
    Biden: 11.0%
    Yang: 3.7%
    Gabbard: 3.3%
    Steyer: 1.7%


    FiveThirtyEight
    Sanders: 26.0%
    Buttigieg: 21.6%
    Warren: 12.5%
    Biden: 11.7%
    Klobuchar: 10.3%
    Yang: 3.0%
    Gabbard: 2.9%
    Steyer: 2.6%
    Bloomberg: 2.3%

  15. #165
    If Biden or Warren finish 5th, they'll be under a lot of pressure to drop out, especially Warren who seems to have no path to victory.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  16. #166
    Hopefully Biden does before Warren. I worry Warren dropping out will see more transfers to Sanders.

    I believe Biden is running out of money.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  17. #167
    Yeah, Warren dropping out now would sharply increase Sanders' chances. Having at least two out of Biden, Bloomberg, Klobuchar, and Buttigieg dropping out would do wonders for the moderate cause. Not that the latter 3 have any reason to do so.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  18. #168
    If the first 10% is representative then Biden needs to just f**k right off and retire. Geriatric dithering old fool can't get to the end of a sentence properly, who's he trying to kid that he's "electable"?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  19. #169
    I was just going to post something similar. 8%. Ouch. Bloomberg's job will be more difficult with a surging Klobuchar.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  20. #170
    Democratic moderates need to decide between Buttigieg or Klobuchar.

    Biden is gone, whether he admits it or not. And Yang is out too.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  21. #171
    Biden's supporters were defecting to Buttigieg only as long as they thought he was going to win. Not sure if the current stop-and-frisk stories hurt Bloomberg, but he's best positioned to draw in African Americans and moderates. The bandwagon folks are going to have a hard choice with no clear centrist frontrunner.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  22. #172
    Yang has thrown in the towel, less than 24 hours after his last email plea for donations
    "In a field where an overlooked bug could cost millions, you want people who will speak their minds, even if they’re sometimes obnoxious about it."

  23. #173
    He was always a long shot, and he never seemed to be able to break out of his one demographic. A lot of his supporters are likely to end up under Bernie, so if there aren't some moderate dropouts soon (Biden seems likely) it's going to get tricky to overcome his lead. This means I'm going to get to choose from between my lowest and second-lowest primary choices in the general again! Woo!
    Last edited by Wraith; 02-12-2020 at 04:09 AM.

  24. #174
    Quote Originally Posted by Wraith View Post
    Real Clear Politics
    Sanders: 28.7%
    Buttigieg: 21.3%
    Klobuchar: 11.7%
    Warren: 11.0%
    Biden: 11.0%
    Yang: 3.7%
    Gabbard: 3.3%
    Steyer: 1.7%


    FiveThirtyEight
    Sanders: 26.0%
    Buttigieg: 21.6%
    Warren: 12.5%
    Biden: 11.7%
    Klobuchar: 10.3%
    Yang: 3.0%
    Gabbard: 2.9%
    Steyer: 2.6%
    Bloomberg: 2.3%


    Delegate totals:

    Buttigieg: 22
    Sanders: 21
    Warren: 8
    Klobuchar: 7
    Biden: 6

    I might have to start paying attention to Klobuchar now. I have to wonder if Harris is kicking herself right now for leaving when she was well ahead of Klobuchar, or if there was some backroom deal behind that.

    With Biden underperforming even the low expectations of him, there'll be a lot of pressure on him to drop out before Super Tuesday. He probably shouldn't have stepped on his own turnout by telling everyone he didn't expect to do well. Warren probably ought to drop out too, but I hope she doesn't for the same reasons as Loki & Rand.

  25. #175
    Why do we build the wall, my children, my children? We build the wall to keep us free.
    How does the wall keep us free, my children, my children? The wall keeps out the enemy. And we build the wall to keep us free.
    Who do we call the enemy, my children, my children? The enemy is poverty. And the wall keeps out the enemy. And we build the wall to keep us free.
    That's why we build the wall. We build the wall to keep us free. Because we have and they have not, my children, my children. Because they want what we have got.
    What do we have that they should want, my children, my children? We have a wall to work upon. We have work and they have none. And our work is never done. And the war is never won.
    The enemy is poverty, the wall keeps out the enemy, and we build the wall to keep us free. That's why we build the wall, we build the wall to keep us free.

  26. #176
    in unrelated news, Mike Bloomberg is the electable candidate who can rise above the fray, work across the aisle so ALL Americans feel heard & respected
    Why do we build the wall, my children, my children? We build the wall to keep us free.
    How does the wall keep us free, my children, my children? The wall keeps out the enemy. And we build the wall to keep us free.
    Who do we call the enemy, my children, my children? The enemy is poverty. And the wall keeps out the enemy. And we build the wall to keep us free.
    That's why we build the wall. We build the wall to keep us free. Because we have and they have not, my children, my children. Because they want what we have got.
    What do we have that they should want, my children, my children? We have a wall to work upon. We have work and they have none. And our work is never done. And the war is never won.
    The enemy is poverty, the wall keeps out the enemy, and we build the wall to keep us free. That's why we build the wall, we build the wall to keep us free.

  27. #177
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  28. #178
    Why do we build the wall, my children, my children? We build the wall to keep us free.
    How does the wall keep us free, my children, my children? The wall keeps out the enemy. And we build the wall to keep us free.
    Who do we call the enemy, my children, my children? The enemy is poverty. And the wall keeps out the enemy. And we build the wall to keep us free.
    That's why we build the wall. We build the wall to keep us free. Because we have and they have not, my children, my children. Because they want what we have got.
    What do we have that they should want, my children, my children? We have a wall to work upon. We have work and they have none. And our work is never done. And the war is never won.
    The enemy is poverty, the wall keeps out the enemy, and we build the wall to keep us free. That's why we build the wall, we build the wall to keep us free.

  29. #179
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  30. #180
    Bloomberg's viablity in this primary is proof that for many American moderates and centrists, the only real problem they have with Trump is one of style and presentation.
    Last edited by Steely Glint; 02-16-2020 at 02:07 AM.
    Why do we build the wall, my children, my children? We build the wall to keep us free.
    How does the wall keep us free, my children, my children? The wall keeps out the enemy. And we build the wall to keep us free.
    Who do we call the enemy, my children, my children? The enemy is poverty. And the wall keeps out the enemy. And we build the wall to keep us free.
    That's why we build the wall. We build the wall to keep us free. Because we have and they have not, my children, my children. Because they want what we have got.
    What do we have that they should want, my children, my children? We have a wall to work upon. We have work and they have none. And our work is never done. And the war is never won.
    The enemy is poverty, the wall keeps out the enemy, and we build the wall to keep us free. That's why we build the wall, we build the wall to keep us free.

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