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Thread: 2020 Democratic Primaries

  1. #241
    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    So what you're saying is that it isn't a Democratic presidential trait; we can see that it is obviously a Presidential trait if the President is a Republican.
    Depends if you consider Trump to be Presidential. I don't.

    But yes as I said a while back - Republicans have some electoral success with older Presidents but Democrats don't.
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    When their candidate isn't the incumbent President the Democrats have done better traditionally with younger, fresher faces than experienced Washington insiders.


    Done a list going back 60 years to JFK. LBJ isn't on the list since he only ever fought an election as the incumbent President.


    Young and fresh at the time: Obama (won), Clinton B (won), Carter (won), JFK (won)
    Older experienced DC insiders: Clinton, H (lost), Kerry (lost), Gore (lost), Mondale (lost), McGovern (lost), Humphrey (lost)


    Not sure on which list to put Dukakis.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  2. #242
    With a small enough sample, you get all kinds of spurious correlations.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  3. #243
    Indeed: https://xkcd.com/1122/

    But it may not be spurious.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  4. #244
    Interesting theory, not sure how much basis in reality there is but on the surface I can see older people are less change inspiring to some folks.

  5. #245
    Most entertaining debate so far. Here is a quick recap:

    Sanders: "I will fight billionaires."

    Warren: "I will murder one on live TV, tonight"
    Last edited by Ominous Gamer; 02-20-2020 at 11:51 AM.
    "In a field where an overlooked bug could cost millions, you want people who will speak their minds, even if they’re sometimes obnoxious about it."

  6. #246
    We are so screwed. All the arguments so far have been what people might vote against (a SSSocialist, a billionaire, a gay man, a woman...) and then try to fit that into the voting against Trump box, and hope it works.

    The process takes too long and costs too much money. It's divisive, inefficient, wasteful, causes voter fatigue/apathy, and people check out. That void is filled by opportunists -- political lobbyists, big donors, delegate chasers, establishment players, etc. The ugly truth is that the GOP is much better at the game than Democrats.

    Republicans were caught off guard when Obama won the WH, so despite that RNC "autopsy" report calling for a broader, more inclusive tent, they doubled down on identity/cultural FEARS, stuck together in loyalty to their *party*, and got Trump elected. It's sadly ironic that the GOP killed their principles along the way, and is willing to defend Trumpism just to stay in power.

    ALL the (D) nominees care about the same basic principles, with varied solutions, but are letting Trump and his GOP minions control the messaging. Bloomberg is paying "influencers" on social media, but he OWNS a media/news outlet whose employees are concerned about reporting on their boss. Meanwhile, Fox News is spreading lies and propaganda on Trump TV in a negative feedback loop.

    We are so screwed.

  7. #247
    Bloomberg's performance was solidly in Sharknado "so bad its good question mark question mark but not really" territory.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  8. #248
    You love to see it.
    Take the suffering and plague away now, let the madness become the truth, cause it's never too late for mercy when the red tides rise to you
    As power tends towards violent ends, I'll choose to give up nothing, cause it's too late to be the hero, and it's too late to see the truth
    I'm exempt of absolution
    But it's never too late for you

  9. #249
    Garbage in = garbage out.

  10. #250
    Take the suffering and plague away now, let the madness become the truth, cause it's never too late for mercy when the red tides rise to you
    As power tends towards violent ends, I'll choose to give up nothing, cause it's too late to be the hero, and it's too late to see the truth
    I'm exempt of absolution
    But it's never too late for you

  11. #251
    Bloomberg isn't trying to win, he's just enjoying taking the piss out of Trump

    This is a real life Brewster's Millions.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  12. #252
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Bloomberg isn't trying to win, he's just enjoying taking the piss out of Trump

    This is a real life Brewster's Millions.
    He is outspending all the other candidates on new and old forms of advertising. Very little of it attacking Trump, almost all of it praising himself. He might have been deluded enough to think he had a chance, then a chance to force a brokered convention, his commitment to actually spend $2 billion "taking the piss out of trump" has yet to be seen.
    "In a field where an overlooked bug could cost millions, you want people who will speak their minds, even if they’re sometimes obnoxious about it."

  13. #253
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    This is a real life Brewster's Millions.
    The money Brewster had to spend Bewster's Millions represents 0.04% of Michael Bloombergs fortune.
    Take the suffering and plague away now, let the madness become the truth, cause it's never too late for mercy when the red tides rise to you
    As power tends towards violent ends, I'll choose to give up nothing, cause it's too late to be the hero, and it's too late to see the truth
    I'm exempt of absolution
    But it's never too late for you

  14. #254
    It's interesting that it's looking increasingly likely that what we're going see a contest between two candidates who's own parties, really, really didn't want them as their nominees. I wonder if the political establishment in the US is going to take any of that on board?

    (NARRATOR: they will not)
    Take the suffering and plague away now, let the madness become the truth, cause it's never too late for mercy when the red tides rise to you
    As power tends towards violent ends, I'll choose to give up nothing, cause it's too late to be the hero, and it's too late to see the truth
    I'm exempt of absolution
    But it's never too late for you

  15. #255
    My takeaway has more to do with the quality of voters.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  16. #256
    Of course it has.
    Last edited by Steely Glint; 02-23-2020 at 06:38 PM.
    Take the suffering and plague away now, let the madness become the truth, cause it's never too late for mercy when the red tides rise to you
    As power tends towards violent ends, I'll choose to give up nothing, cause it's too late to be the hero, and it's too late to see the truth
    I'm exempt of absolution
    But it's never too late for you

  17. #257
    This reflects traits inherent to the electoral & political system. Think of it as another feature of winner-takes-all. In many countries, the demsoc contingent would just be another party, perhaps a possible coalition partner or perhaps a part of the opposition. Under this system, however, the options are perennial marginalization—or sudden and total victory. I am obviously not a fan.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  18. #258
    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    This reflects traits inherent to the electoral & political system. Think of it as another feature of winner-takes-all. In many countries, the demsoc contingent would just be another party, perhaps a possible coalition partner or perhaps a part of the opposition. Under this system, however, the options are perennial marginalization—or sudden and total victory. I am obviously not a fan.
    Being separate parties doesn't make things better when there's only one candidate to win either way, secondly its symptomatic of a worldwide movement towards certain extremes, which is thankfully so far passing the UK by

    Obama, Bill Clinton etc were both elected via this electoral system. Even Dubya was first elected using moderate catchphrases.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  19. #259
    Take the suffering and plague away now, let the madness become the truth, cause it's never too late for mercy when the red tides rise to you
    As power tends towards violent ends, I'll choose to give up nothing, cause it's too late to be the hero, and it's too late to see the truth
    I'm exempt of absolution
    But it's never too late for you

  20. #260
    If that's true then America is one hell of a fucked up country with its healthcare.

    Scratch that, my first 4 words in that sentence were redundant.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  21. #261
    Full Nevada caucus results are finally in:


    Total:
    Sanders - 45
    Buttigieg - 25
    Biden - 15
    Warren - 8
    Klobuchar - 7

  22. #262
    The other way to look at this is the people who vote for Bernie and Warren are pretty much the same while Joe/Pete/Tom/Amy are also similar. That puts Bernie/Warren faction about 55%. The only hope for a more moderate candidate is if a few people step down. Divide the vote between Biden and Pete isn't going to work. And no clue why someone like Tom and Amy are still in it.

  23. #263
    Being just on the wrong side of 15% didn't help Buttigieg there. Though what I also find interesting is how very few votes there were there, approximately 14k votes doesn't sound like a lot of people whatsoever.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  24. #264
    The problem with that idea is that Bernie polls well against the other candidates 1v1, so it seems that not everyone who doesn't have Bernie as their first choice is #NeverBernie and might have him as their second or third choice.
    Take the suffering and plague away now, let the madness become the truth, cause it's never too late for mercy when the red tides rise to you
    As power tends towards violent ends, I'll choose to give up nothing, cause it's too late to be the hero, and it's too late to see the truth
    I'm exempt of absolution
    But it's never too late for you

  25. #265
    Yeah, Bernie is a very strong second choice among the other camps, I think that's one reason why no one will drop, their base won't blindly go to some other moderate. The #neverbiden is especially strong.
    "In a field where an overlooked bug could cost millions, you want people who will speak their minds, even if they’re sometimes obnoxious about it."

  26. #266
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Being just on the wrong side of 15% didn't help Buttigieg there. Though what I also find interesting is how very few votes there were there, approximately 14k votes doesn't sound like a lot of people whatsoever.
    15-20% turnout in a fairly small state. Unfortunately, most voters aren't voting based on policy positions. When people supporting candidates with <15% had to swap candidates in Nevada, a majority opted for Sanders.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  27. #267
    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    15-20% turnout in a fairly small state. Unfortunately, most voters aren't voting based on policy positions. When people supporting candidates with <15% had to swap candidates in Nevada, a majority opted for Sanders.
    I wonder how much of that is peer pressure (since its not a secret ballot is it?) and also a perversion of choice though. IE in some ballots Buttigieg would have been over 15% so people could vote for him, in others he'd have been under so they couldn't - ditto for Biden etc - but Sanders would have been almost universally available to vote for in the second round.

    If someone is in the second round all the time while the other candidates are in it only half the time, it seems likely that the one there all the time would naturally get more votes - whereas if the choice had been just the same two in all wards it might have been different.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  28. #268


    See also https://projects.economist.com/democ...rimaries-2020/ for who each candidates voters prefer as their second or third choice. Biden is the only centrist who remotely has a chance against Bernie 1v1. All the others could win ever single undecided and still come up short.
    Take the suffering and plague away now, let the madness become the truth, cause it's never too late for mercy when the red tides rise to you
    As power tends towards violent ends, I'll choose to give up nothing, cause it's too late to be the hero, and it's too late to see the truth
    I'm exempt of absolution
    But it's never too late for you

  29. #269
    If you assume polling is accurate.

    If you assume polling is accurate and never changes then Biden was a lock for nominee anyway (he was well ahead of Sanders previously), Corbyn is PM (OK a stretch but he was in the lead in the polls at one point last year), Hillary is currently President, Ed Milliband was guaranteed to beat Cameron and we voted to remain in the EU.

    Polls change.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  30. #270
    Doesn't mean they're going to change in the direction you want them to, though. You've been calling Biden a poor choice this whole thread (and you're not wrong), Bloomberg's a piece of shit who's in way over his head and Buttigieg is... also there. What makes you think voters are going to look at any of these guys and decide they want them over Sanders?
    Take the suffering and plague away now, let the madness become the truth, cause it's never too late for mercy when the red tides rise to you
    As power tends towards violent ends, I'll choose to give up nothing, cause it's too late to be the hero, and it's too late to see the truth
    I'm exempt of absolution
    But it's never too late for you

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