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Thread: 2020 Democratic Primaries

  1. #1

    Default 2020 Democratic Primaries

    Presenting:


    Wraith's Democratic Party Power Ranking
    -or-
    My motherboard is fried, I'm out of shows to watch, and I'm bored

    Let's be honest, this is the real election that decides our next president. If the DNC screws up this general election, I'm going to be really suspicious that it's intentional. So here's how I see the current field, ranked by my estimate of their chances of winning the Democratic nomination. This is not my order of preference:




    1) Elizabeth Warren - She's the one I think is currently the most likely to win the nomination. She's got solid polling numbers even if she's not in the lead yet, but she has other assets that get her the top spot. She's managed to steal the position of the moderate candidate from Biden, at least among the under 60's. She's also currently the media's chosen candidate, and the media is as powerful. Of course it's also fickle, and I think I'm starting to see enthusiasm for her waning, so she's not secure in this spot. Warren is looking more and more like the default candidate, the one everyone else is going to be compared against.

    2) Bernie Sanders - He trails Warren in the polls more than he does in my estimation of his chances to win. I think they're virtually neck-and-neck. One of his biggest assets are his supporters; The Bernie Bros are back from 2016 - embittered, a little less enthusiastic, a little fewer in number, and a little more radicalized. But they still have a lot of energy and loyalty. Polls show his supporters are 50% more likely to be certain about their choice compared to Warren's supporters. That kind of loyalty comes from somewhere, and that energy can be leveraged to to build up his poll numbers. I think he's got a real shot at turning this into a nomination.

    3) Pete Buttigieg - A ways back from those two is Mayor Pete. Amongst his best assets are his unpronounceable last name forcing everyone to call him by his endearing nickname. He had a stellar performance in the October debate that helped give his campaign a kick forward and start rising above the other single-digit candidates. His numbers in the early states have also been pretty fantastic, thanks to the massive numbers of offices he's opened there. He's definitely pursuing an early-state strategy, and if he can get solid wins there he could build up his national numbers enough to threaten Warren and Sanders.

    4) Andrew Yang - As low as his polling numbers are, they're still way higher than they have any right to be. He's an outsider candidate, the second poorest guy on the stage next to Mayor Pete, nobody's ever heard of him, the media never talks about him except occasionally to mock him, and he's regularly left out when talking about all the other candidates, even lower polling ones. He's the random guy running for President. Yet here he is, managing to grow his support even with everything stacked against him. His cheesy stunts at the debates seem like they should be burying him, but they keep boosting him up instead. Either this guy poops miracles or his campaign team is next-level.

    One of his biggest assets is the Yang Gang, which is a more optimistic version of Bernie's core supporters in 2016. His supporters are reported as being the most loyal of any candidate by a solid margin, with only 25% reporting a possibility of changing their minds compared to Bernie's 45% and Warren's 65%. Right now almost all his support is among Millennials, especially ones in STEM. This is a mixed benefit since they're the least likely demographic to vote, but they're also the most likely demographic to be politically active and willing to volunteer hours for their candidate. That's a pretty solid way to make inroads in the other demographics, most of whom still have no idea who he is. If he has any more miracles left and he can get his supporters enthusiasm to scale well, and get it to scale in time to get double digits in Iowa, he's got a shot. He chances aren't good here, but he's consistently outperformed all expectations and it's too early to write him out.

    As a note, I'm half convinced he's actually running for VP, and he's doing a pretty good job of it. For anyone except Bernie, I think he's turning himself into a top-tier choice for running mate - he's got the hardest to mobilize demographics in his pocket, cross-party appeal, and he's been running a clean campaign, refusing to go on the offensive and regularly defending his fellow candidates. He fills in a lot of the gaps that all the candidates except Bernie share. He would have been an especially good fit with Biden, and speaking of...

    5) Joe Biden - I'm not putting him down here just to piss off Loki, that's just a happy side-effect. Joe's still polling in the lead, but I don't see him holding onto that long enough to get the nom. He started this as the most well-known candidate by far, and his inability to hold onto a more substantial lead doesn't bode well. The Boomers are very loyal to him, but all the other demographics hate him. He's coasting on name recognition alone, and that can't carry him forever.

    His best chance at this point is if he can keep Warren and Sanders both in the campaign long enough to keep the vote split, because most of their voters won't be going to Joe. He also has to maintain his monopoly on the Boomers, which I don't think he can. Biden's support right now is among the demographic least likely to follow election news or watch the debates, so they're the slowest to change their minds, but they can change eventually. They're also the least willing to actively campaign for their candidate, so everyone above him on this list has a huge advantage in grass-roots activism. Once Biden's name recognition advantage shrinks more, Biden doesn't have the tools to hold on to his supporters, and his frequent gaffes and poor debate performances aren't doing him any favors. His campaign has already lost, but as with all the elderly, it takes a while for news to get to him.

    6) Corey Booker
    - It makes me sad I have to put him this far down, because I really like Booker. He's seems genuine and enthusiastic, and I think he's really in this to make the world a better place. He also seems to have a solid understanding of the social problems in this country. The guy's extremely likable, but he hasn't been able to turn that into support. He's been hanging by his fingernails for a while, and I expect him to squeak into the December debate, but if he can't show more upward momentum then it'll probably be his last.

    7) Kamela Harris - I don't think she has anything that'll keep her viable in the long term. She has just enough media support to keep her propped up, but it's pretty half-hearted and isn't building her base any. She might be able to stick around for the early states voting, but I don't see her getting enough votes to keep her much past that.

    8) Andrew Steyer - I actually think he's a pretty good guy, and I admire his adherence to his principles. But he can only buy his way so far into the election. He's passionate about climate change, but so are all the other candidates, and I don't think he's got enough to offer to have a plausible shot at the nom. And when the two candidates with the largest megaphones are preaching class warfare, it's not good to be the only guy from the wrong team.

    9) Amy Klobuchar - I keep forgetting she's still a thing. I don't think I'm the only one. The lack of any memorable characteristics distinguishing her from higher polling candidates means she can't ever really build her base. She'll fade away slowly, and when she drops out it'll be a month before anyone notices.

    10) Tulsi Gabbard (possible witch) - She's toast. Her last debate performance sealed it. Her main asset was cross-party appeal, but that doesn't help any until the general. I don't think she even has a shot at Veep anymore now that her feud with Hillary has made her radioactive.



    Okay, your turn.
    Last edited by Wraith; 11-21-2019 at 07:01 PM. Reason: Spelling

  2. #2
    Warren/Castro.

    Gabbard isn't even a contender, and never was.
    Last edited by Aimless; 11-21-2019 at 10:35 AM.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  3. #3
    Today its Pete, Warren, Yang, in that order.
    The Rules
    Copper- behave toward others to elicit treatment you would like (the manipulative rule)
    Gold- treat others how you would like them to treat you (the self regard rule)
    Platinum - treat others the way they would like to be treated (the PC rule)

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    Gabbard isn't even a contender, and never was.
    A human Tulsi Gabbard never had a shot, but we have no ideas what powers she got from her congress with the devil.

    Quote Originally Posted by EyeKhan View Post
    Today its Pete, Warren, Yang, in that order.
    Why are you leaving out Sanders?

  5. #5
    Interesting analysis, but one question: you actually think Warren has a position (stolen or not) as a moderate candidate?
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Wraith View Post
    A human Tulsi Gabbard never had a shot, but we have no ideas what powers she got from her congress with the devil.


    Why are you leaving out Sanders?
    I really like Sanders, but I think he's too old and the recent heart attack puts his health in question.
    The Rules
    Copper- behave toward others to elicit treatment you would like (the manipulative rule)
    Gold- treat others how you would like them to treat you (the self regard rule)
    Platinum - treat others the way they would like to be treated (the PC rule)

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by wiggin View Post
    Interesting analysis, but one question: you actually think Warren has a position (stolen or not) as a moderate candidate?
    No, I think she has the appearance of that position. Mostly because she gets contrasted with Sanders. Once the field narrows, I think the title will pass to Mayor Pete, who's the most actually moderate candidate that's still viable.

  8. #8
    In order:

    Mayor Pete
    Anyone but Warren/Sanders
    Anyone primary-challenging Trump
    Asteroid Strike
    Warren/Sanders
    Alien Attack
    Trump
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  9. #9
    Genuinely annoyed to see Buttigieg get so much more attention than Booker and Castro.

    Quote Originally Posted by Wraith View Post
    A human Tulsi Gabbard never had a shot, but we have no ideas what powers she got from her congress with the devil.
    Don't think she's ever had a realistic path to the Dem nomination, let alone the presidency. She's been Sideshow Bob-ing herself right from the outset; the incident with Clinton didn't do anything to her political prospects that she wasn't already doing herself.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    Genuinely annoyed to see Buttigieg get so much more attention than Booker and Castro.
    Booker and Castro have no support, and that's even with the media trying to push Booker hard. He's been getting treated like a major candidate even though he peaked at 3% support, and is currently lagging behind Yang. The media cannot be blamed for the Booker campaign's failure, they really tried to help him, it just didn't take.

    The media hasn't done Castro any favors, but he's been struggling to poll above the level of statistical blip, and he's never shown any momentum or reason to believe he could appeal to most voters. He was never a serious contender.

    Don't think she's ever had a realistic path to the Dem nomination, let alone the presidency. She's been Sideshow Bob-ing herself right from the outset; the incident with Clinton didn't do anything to her political prospects that she wasn't already doing herself.
    Tulsi was always running for VP, not President. She did have a path for that, but she was already almost out when Hillary started kicking her, and that incident made her too radioactive to consider anymore. Her campaign has no point in continuing at this point.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    In order:

    Mayor Pete
    Anyone but Warren/Sanders
    Anyone primary-challenging Trump
    Asteroid Strike
    Warren/Sanders
    Alien Attack
    Trump
    Wait, are you all doing order of preference? I'll edit my OP to make it more clear, but I was listing order by chances of winning, and I wanted to include everyone still making the debates. My order of preference does not match up with that.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Wraith View Post
    Booker and Castro have no support, and that's even with the media trying to push Booker hard. He's been getting treated like a major candidate even though he peaked at 3% support, and is currently lagging behind Yang. The media cannot be blamed for the Booker campaign's failure, they really tried to help him, it just didn't take.

    The media hasn't done Castro any favors, but he's been struggling to poll above the level of statistical blip, and he's never shown any momentum or reason to believe he could appeal to most voters. He was never a serious contender.
    Sorry, I was unclear; I was referring to attention from the public, not attention from the media. Expect their potential base overlaps too much with Warren's.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  13. #13
    My Power Ranking:

    Warren or Sanders: They are basically the same on almost every policy issue. Eventually one will drop out and endorse the other. Right now the rabid left wants full transformation of society to their leftist ideal and guess who votes in primaries? The most extreme of the extreme.

    Biden: He's a "safe" selection but I see him fading now that Hunter Biden scandal is front and center and he's had some lackluster answers where he appears confused during the debates.

    Yang: Watch this guy - I actually agree with the analysis of him running for a VP slot. On almost every policy issue (except drug legalization and nuclear power) I'm opposed but the dude is VERY likable and the way he interacts with people who disagree with him speaks highly to his character. The fact he was I believe the only one to mention the attack on Andy Ngo did a lot in my eyes.

    Mayor Pete: I think he's the Herman Cain of the Democratic party. He's actually fairly articulate but I don't think he has staying power. His campaign has also made some awful, simply awful gaffes. His record as mayor is a mixed bag too. And let's not ignore the elephant in the room either, he's gay that matters in a lot of black districts in some of the early primary states in the Democratic party.

    Cory/Kamela/Tulsi/Whoever Else: Aren't going to win. Tulsi is an interesting anti-war candidate who has served, who would probably be the most difficult opponent for Trump to face but the elites of the party despise her for the stunt she pulled in support of Bernie last election.

  14. #14


    Effects from last night's debate. Klobuchar made more of an impression than I expected, but no other real surprises.

  15. #15
    It's so very weird the way America places more importance on a candidate's personality/character/ability to debate than their actual policies.

    I suppose it explains why big personalities with disastrous policies make it all the way to the White House.
    Last edited by Timbuk2; 11-22-2019 at 08:03 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    It's actually the original French billion, which is bi-million, which is a million to the power of 2. We adopted the word, and then they changed it, presumably as revenge for Crecy and Agincourt, and then the treasonous Americans adopted the new French usage and spread it all over the world. And now we have to use it.

    And that's Why I'm Voting Leave.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Wraith View Post
    Wait, are you all doing order of preference? I'll edit my OP to make it more clear, but I was listing order by chances of winning, and I wanted to include everyone still making the debates. My order of preference does not match up with that.
    Sorry if I misread, mine was order of preference with a tongue in cheek element of humour. I don't think an alien attack is more likely than Trump winning.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  17. #17
    The Silicon Valley obsession with Yang would be amusing if Silicon Valley didn't have so much economic power. There's 0% chance Yang wins the nomination. No one polling at under 10% at this point ever won and he's not even close. He also doesn't help Democrats win a battleground state or solidify a few demographic. No chance he's a VP pick. His best path to relevance is to try buying a Senate seat.

    Sanders has little chance of winning. He has his hardcore supporters, but that's about it. He's not many people's second choice. His only chance is if Warren drops out before Super Tuesday. And that isn't going to happen. Let's say 10% he wins.

    Buttigieg has an outshot shot if he wins Iowa and NH. But even then, he's polling at under 10%. He has virtually zero minority support. He has little support from the Dem. establishment. He shares the moderate vote with Biden and the too educated to favor sane policies vote with Warren. His only path to victory is if one of those drops out early on. Even then, he's unlikely to win. So 10% chance of victory.

    Despite all the media dismissals of Biden, he's still in first. His gaffes don't hurt him in the polls (at least not for long). He has the support of African Americans, moderates, and the elderly (the latter two groups turn out a high rate). He loses if African Americans abandon him for a black candidate, moderates abandon him for Buttigieg, or Sanders drops out (unlikely, barring another heart attack). He doesn't have a lock on the nomination, but it's silly to claim his chances are less than 30-40%.

    Warren has the highest chance of winning. It's hard to see her lose her current level of support. She needs either Bernie, Biden, or Buttigieg to weaken. Any one of those can put her over the top. I'd give her a 40-50% chance.
    Last edited by Loki; 11-22-2019 at 06:11 PM.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  18. #18
    Lots of experts said Trump had 0% of winning the primary. Personally I do think Yang is an outside chance, Democrats right now have their blood up and don't just want to win, they want punitive action. Yang is the type of guy to try to build a big tent party and to the rabid left (primary voters) they don't want someone who will play nice they want scorched earth. I do agree he doesn't bring an important demographic, liberals have long had a disdain for Asians due to the 'model minority' problem. Yang's hope is that the far left continues to split the ticket between Bernie and Warren and he picks up some good counts in open primaries where non party faithfuls can vote (Texas is an example where even Republicans can vote in the Democratic primary) and when the field narrows he can get more time to articulate his position. Long shot but not 0%.

  19. #19
    Biggest problem for yang in the general would be the racism this country still hasn't addressed. Same morons who screamed about Obama being from Kenya are already pushing that yang is some sort of Chinese spy/plant. Regardless of his parents being from Taiwan and him being born here. It's just to easy of a projection for them to make to cloud the problems hovering over the Russian plant they do support.
    Last edited by Ominous Gamer; 11-22-2019 at 07:54 PM.
    "In a field where an overlooked bug could cost millions, you want people who will speak their minds, even if they’re sometimes obnoxious about it."

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Lewkowski View Post
    Lots of experts said Trump had 0% of winning the primary. Personally I do think Yang is an outside chance, Democrats right now have their blood up and don't just want to win, they want punitive action. Yang is the type of guy to try to build a big tent party and to the rabid left (primary voters) they don't want someone who will play nice they want scorched earth. I do agree he doesn't bring an important demographic, liberals have long had a disdain for Asians due to the 'model minority' problem. Yang's hope is that the far left continues to split the ticket between Bernie and Warren and he picks up some good counts in open primaries where non party faithfuls can vote (Texas is an example where even Republicans can vote in the Democratic primary) and when the field narrows he can get more time to articulate his position. Long shot but not 0%.
    Trump was polling at 28% at this point in 2015. He was in the lead almost continuously from July 2015.

    Yang's biggest problem is that he's polling at 3% nationally, and about the same in Iowa and NH. We're only 2.5 months from Iowa. Half a dozen Democrats would have to defect to North Korea before he'd have a chance.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  21. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Biggest problem for yang in the general would the racism this country still hasn't addressed. Same morons who screamed about Obama being from Kenya are already pushing that yang is some sort of Chinese spy/plant. Regardless of his parents being from Taiwan and him being born here. It's just to easy of a projection for them to make to cloud the problems hovering over the Russian plant they do support.
    Racism towards Asians has always been softer, and I think most of the racists are locked-in Trump supporters anyways. I don't think it'd be a big problem for him in the general. Yang also has a pretty solid record of converting Trump supporters over to his side, so with the right choice of running mate (an old white non-threatening Biden-esque guy to reassure the Boomers) it could turn into a rout.

    I don't think Yang would have much of a problem winning the general, but getting that far is still going to be a neat trick. His biggest hurdle right now is getting people to take him seriously as a candidate. I've seen a lot of repetition around of variations on "I really like Yang, but he doesn't have a chance so I don't want to waste my vote". This implies that if he can prove to the general public that he's viable, he might have a lot more support already than polls show. It's also exactly why we need ranked choice voting. He's got the most fanatically loyal supporters of any candidate, and if he can keep that scaling while he builds his numbers, it could turn into a powerful force. He's facing an uphill battle though, since the media is snubbing him harder than Bernie now or in 2016. Even if he manages to clear that hurdle and reach more voters, he's going to have a Bernie problem since there's a lot of crossover between the two, and there's a risk that if he and Bernie are both serious candidates at the same time they'll just split the vote and hand Warren the nom.

    There's still some time left for him, but I think he's only going to have a realistic shot if he can reach double-digits by Iowa & New Hampshire. The impeachment might work in his favor here, since a lot of his opponents are going to have to go back to DC for that while he can keep campaigning. He's still got a ways to go there, so we'll see what happens.

  22. #22
    Shame that your anecdotes are inconsistent with reality. Not only is Yang polling at 3-4% in Iowa, but he's the second choice of 3% of likely Democratic Iowa Caucus goers. That puts him in 9th place even as far as second preferences go. And he's not doing any better nationally (except on some college campuses and Silicon Valley).

    Hope is the denial of reality

  23. #23


    I know you're itching to pick a fight, but you really need to start reading what I write instead of what you wanted me to write. I really don't have the patience to do this dance again with you right now.

  24. #24
    In quantitative terms, Yang's current as well as likely potential support both seem unimpressive outside the tech bro demographic. Even with ranked choice voting he'd be a distant third or fourth at best. While you may indeed be seeing a lot of Yang Gang talk, I think it's likely that what you're seeing is not even close to being representative. Maybe Yang might be Governor some day, but he's like a generation away from becoming president. A governorship would be a more effective way for him to implement his ideas. Legislative positions would suit him poorly, as would the VP role.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  25. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    In quantitative terms, Yang's current as well as likely potential support both seem unimpressive outside the tech bro demographic. Even with ranked choice voting he'd be a distant third or fourth at best. While you may indeed be seeing a lot of Yang Gang talk, I think it's likely that what you're seeing is not even close to being representative. Maybe Yang might be Governor some day, but he's like a generation away from becoming president. A governorship would be a more effective way for him to implement his ideas. Legislative positions would suit him poorly, as would the VP role.
    Yeah, his base is constrained to some specific demographics that he needs to break out of, and his ability to do so hasn't really been tested yet. You're also right that what I'm seeing might not be representative - I did qualify my statement as just a possibility.

    On ranked choice voting: you really can't say how it would work out, because we don't have it, so there's no way to gather reliable data on what would happen. I'm also for it in general principle, my support has nothing to do with any current scenario, I just saw an opportunity to plug for it again. I remember advocating for it in off and on in the early 2000's. Haven't I forced this community to use ranked choice voting every time I could, like when we were picking the name?

  26. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by Wraith View Post
    I don't think Yang would have much of a problem winning the general, but getting that far is still going to be a neat trick.
    What are you basing this on? Was it his false claim that he's doing better against Trump than are the other candidates?

    https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...p-voters-rate/

    This implies that if he can prove to the general public that he's viable, he might have a lot more support already than polls show.
    He's had months and several debates to make this point. The result is 3% support.

    It's also exactly why we need ranked choice voting.
    He's virtually no one's second choice. Ranked voting wouldn't help him at all.

    He's got the most fanatically loyal supporters of any candidate, and if he can keep that scaling while he builds his numbers, it could turn into a powerful force.
    According to whom? Bernie Bros are pretty fanatical. And that ignores the issue of having 3% fanatical supporters is far less useful than having 25% less fanatical supporters.

    since the media is snubbing him harder than Bernie now or in 2016.
    He's getting more time on TV than other candidates with his polling numbers. And several of those candidates have a long political CV, which means they should be taken more seriously.

    There's still some time left for him, but I think he's only going to have a realistic shot if he can reach double-digits by Iowa & New Hampshire.
    He won't. Bumps of that magnitude happen for good reasons, and there are no good reasons.

    The impeachment might work in his favor here, since a lot of his opponents are going to have to go back to DC for that while he can keep campaigning. He's still got a ways to go there, so we'll see what happens.
    A) Most of the sitting senators running for president are going to be MIA for a lot of those proceedings.
    B) More importantly, I really fail to see how those other candidates getting major time on TV is somehow going to help Yang.

    You make a lot of assertions that are simply not supported by the facts, and in many cases are clearly contradicted by them. You haven't presented a single argument as to why someone who's been in the race for months and failed to attract much support is going to radically transform this race within 2-3 months. It's certainly possible that some of the candidates at the top could falter. But they won't ALL falter. And Yang isn't going to be the main beneficiary even if they do. Yang is the left-wing Ron Paul (minus the political experience) and he'll be lucky if he achieves anything near Ron Paul's level of support (which was never close to victory).
    Hope is the denial of reality

  27. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    According to whom? Bernie Bros are pretty fanatical. And that ignores the issue of having 3% fanatical supporters is far less useful than having 25% less fanatical supporters.
    I think you both are missing the obvious which is that while fanatical to be sure, both Bernie and Yang's support pale in comparison to Trump. Remember, he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and not lose a vote.

    And I'm starting to think that is true.

  28. #28
    Fortunately, his support never goes above 43%. If not for the GOP advantage in the midwest, 2020 wouldn't be even close.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  29. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by Enoch the Red View Post
    I think you both are missing the obvious which is that while fanatical to be sure, both Bernie and Yang's support pale in comparison to Trump. Remember, he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and not lose a vote.

    And I'm starting to think that is true.
    I was speaking in the context of winning the primary. It was relevant because that kind of loyalty leads to a higher participation rate in activism, and since Bernie and Yang both skew heavily towards the demographics that are already inclined towards activism, the compounding effect means their respective supporter groups can be valuable assets. Also, loyalty like that doesn't come from nowhere. Everybody already knows all about Trump, but Bernie and Yang don't have the same level of penetration into the public consciousness yet, and if they can inspire that kind of loyalty in the supporters they already have, they've got something going for them that makes their message able to stick in people who hear it. It implies they should have less than normal resistance to spreading that message. Trump's President now, so he has less room to grow and he's probably already near his cap as far as spreading his message goes. I'm also not sure how much energy his supporters have left, even if I don't doubt their continued stubborn loyalty. But yeah, he had the same thing going for him in 2016.

    Honestly though, I think that barring gross incompetence, anyone who was on the debate stage on Wednesday could beat Trump in the general.

  30. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    Fortunately, his support never goes above 43%. If not for the GOP advantage in the midwest, 2020 wouldn't be even close.
    The Midwest does exist though. The Democrats need to face that fact, not lose the electoral college and claim some moral high grounds because they stacked up millions more votes than they needed in California again.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Being upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

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