2020 Democratic Primaries

[Wraith]

Presenting:


Wraith's Democratic Party Power Ranking
-or-
My motherboard is fried, I'm out of shows to watch, and I'm bored

Let's be honest, this is the real election that decides our next president. If the DNC screws up this general election, I'm going to be really suspicious that it's intentional. So here's how I see the current field, ranked by my estimate of their chances of winning the Democratic nomination. This is not my order of preference:

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1) Elizabeth Warren - She's the one I think is currently the most likely to win the nomination. She's got solid polling numbers even if she's not in the lead yet, but she has other assets that get her the top spot. She's managed to steal the position of the moderate candidate from Biden, at least among the under 60's. She's also currently the media's chosen candidate, and the media is as powerful. Of course it's also fickle, and I think I'm starting to see enthusiasm for her waning, so she's not secure in this spot. Warren is looking more and more like the default candidate, the one everyone else is going to be compared against.

2) Bernie Sanders - He trails Warren in the polls more than he does in my estimation of his chances to win. I think they're virtually neck-and-neck. One of his biggest assets are his supporters; The Bernie Bros are back from 2016 - embittered, a little less enthusiastic, a little fewer in number, and a little more radicalized. But they still have a lot of energy and loyalty. Polls show his supporters are 50% more likely to be certain about their choice compared to Warren's supporters. That kind of loyalty comes from somewhere, and that energy can be leveraged to to build up his poll numbers. I think he's got a real shot at turning this into a nomination.

3) Pete Buttigieg - A ways back from those two is Mayor Pete. Amongst his best assets are his unpronounceable last name forcing everyone to call him by his endearing nickname. He had a stellar performance in the October debate that helped give his campaign a kick forward and start rising above the other single-digit candidates. His numbers in the early states have also been pretty fantastic, thanks to the massive numbers of offices he's opened there. He's definitely pursuing an early-state strategy, and if he can get solid wins there he could build up his national numbers enough to threaten Warren and Sanders.

4) Andrew Yang - As low as his polling numbers are, they're still way higher than they have any right to be. He's an outsider candidate, the second poorest guy on the stage next to Mayor Pete, nobody's ever heard of him, the media never talks about him except occasionally to mock him, and he's regularly left out when talking about all the other candidates, even lower polling ones. He's the random guy running for President. Yet here he is, managing to grow his support even with everything stacked against him. His cheesy stunts at the debates seem like they should be burying him, but they keep boosting him up instead. Either this guy poops miracles or his campaign team is next-level.

One of his biggest assets is the Yang Gang, which is a more optimistic version of Bernie's core supporters in 2016. His supporters are reported as being the most loyal of any candidate by a solid margin, with only 25% reporting a possibility of changing their minds compared to Bernie's 45% and Warren's 65%. Right now almost all his support is among Millennials, especially ones in STEM. This is a mixed benefit since they're the least likely demographic to vote, but they're also the most likely demographic to be politically active and willing to volunteer hours for their candidate. That's a pretty solid way to make inroads in the other demographics, most of whom still have no idea who he is. If he has any more miracles left and he can get his supporters enthusiasm to scale well, and get it to scale in time to get double digits in Iowa, he's got a shot. He chances aren't good here, but he's consistently outperformed all expectations and it's too early to write him out.

As a note, I'm half convinced he's actually running for VP, and he's doing a pretty good job of it. For anyone except Bernie, I think he's turning himself into a top-tier choice for running mate - he's got the hardest to mobilize demographics in his pocket, cross-party appeal, and he's been running a clean campaign, refusing to go on the offensive and regularly defending his fellow candidates. He fills in a lot of the gaps that all the candidates except Bernie share. He would have been an especially good fit with Biden, and speaking of...

5) Joe Biden - I'm not putting him down here just to piss off Loki, that's just a happy side-effect. Joe's still polling in the lead, but I don't see him holding onto that long enough to get the nom. He started this as the most well-known candidate by far, and his inability to hold onto a more substantial lead doesn't bode well. The Boomers are very loyal to him, but all the other demographics hate him. He's coasting on name recognition alone, and that can't carry him forever.

His best chance at this point is if he can keep Warren and Sanders both in the campaign long enough to keep the vote split, because most of their voters won't be going to Joe. He also has to maintain his monopoly on the Boomers, which I don't think he can. Biden's support right now is among the demographic least likely to follow election news or watch the debates, so they're the slowest to change their minds, but they can change eventually. They're also the least willing to actively campaign for their candidate, so everyone above him on this list has a huge advantage in grass-roots activism. Once Biden's name recognition advantage shrinks more, Biden doesn't have the tools to hold on to his supporters, and his frequent gaffes and poor debate performances aren't doing him any favors. His campaign has already lost, but as with all the elderly, it takes a while for news to get to him.

6) Corey Booker - It makes me sad I have to put him this far down, because I really like Booker. He's seems genuine and enthusiastic, and I think he's really in this to make the world a better place. He also seems to have a solid understanding of the social problems in this country. The guy's extremely likable, but he hasn't been able to turn that into support. He's been hanging by his fingernails for a while, and I expect him to squeak into the December debate, but if he can't show more upward momentum then it'll probably be his last.

7) Kamela Harris - I don't think she has anything that'll keep her viable in the long term. She has just enough media support to keep her propped up, but it's pretty half-hearted and isn't building her base any. She might be able to stick around for the early states voting, but I don't see her getting enough votes to keep her much past that.

8) Andrew Steyer - I actually think he's a pretty good guy, and I admire his adherence to his principles. But he can only buy his way so far into the election. He's passionate about climate change, but so are all the other candidates, and I don't think he's got enough to offer to have a plausible shot at the nom. And when the two candidates with the largest megaphones are preaching class warfare, it's not good to be the only guy from the wrong team.

9) Amy Klobuchar - I keep forgetting she's still a thing. I don't think I'm the only one. The lack of any memorable characteristics distinguishing her from higher polling candidates means she can't ever really build her base. She'll fade away slowly, and when she drops out it'll be a month before anyone notices.

10) Tulsi Gabbard (possible witch) - She's toast. Her last debate performance sealed it. Her main asset was cross-party appeal, but that doesn't help any until the general. I don't think she even has a shot at Veep anymore now that her feud with Hillary has made her radioactive.



Okay, your turn.