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Thread: 2020 US Presidential election

  1. #691
    Quote Originally Posted by Lewkowski View Post
    https://www.businessinsider.com/unpr...plained-2019-7

    They aren't proven but they aren't disproven either. And it is pretty clear that Omar doesn't think highly of America as it exists now.
    This is one of the dumbest things you've said this month.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  2. #692
    If Americans like Jobs and a healthy economy, they vote for Biden and for a Democratic senate.

    https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/me...p-vs-biden.pdf

    Democratic Sweep Scenario
    The economic outlook is strongest under the scenario in which Biden and theDemocrats sweep Congress and fully adopttheir economic agenda. In this scenario, theeconomy is expected to create 18.6 millionjobs during Biden’s term as president, and theeconomy returns to full employment, withunemployment of just over 4%, by the second half of 2022 (see Table 1). During Biden’spresidency, the average American household’s real after-tax income increases by approximately $4,800, and the homeownershiprate and house prices increase modestly.
    Republican Sweep Scenario
    The economic outlook is weakest under thescenario in which Trump and the Republicanssweep Congress and fully adopt their economic agenda. In this scenario, the economyis expected to create 11.2 million jobs duringTrump’s second term as president, and it isnot until the first half of 2024 that the economy returns to full employment
    So you can love America and make it great again, or you can vote Trump.
    I could have had class. I could have been a contender.
    I could have been somebody. Instead of a bum
    Which is what I am

    I aim at the stars
    But sometimes I hit London

  3. #693
    Hey Lewk, I don't think very highly of the US either and I'm embarrassed to be an American these days. Especially because guys like you think anyone who pushes for liberal democratic and progressive policies -- that push policy toward the middle -- means we're not patriotic, or we're un-American. The political bullshit and identity politics is astounding. It's like you (and your cohorts) belong to a cult of personality. You can't even bring yourself to objectively criticize the crazy policies of the hypocritical Republicans, you just hide your head in denial, and call it hope, or liberty, or Freeeedom.

    SSSocialism is bad, but keep your hands off Social Security and Medicare.

  4. #694
    Quote Originally Posted by GGT View Post
    Hey Lewk, I don't think very highly of the US either and I'm embarrassed to be an American these days. Especially because guys like you think anyone who pushes for liberal democratic and progressive policies -- that push policy toward the middle -- means we're not patriotic, or we're un-American. The political bullshit and identity politics is astounding. It's like you (and your cohorts) belong to a cult of personality. You can't even bring yourself to objectively criticize the crazy policies of the hypocritical Republicans, you just hide your head in denial, and call it hope, or liberty, or Freeeedom.

    SSSocialism is bad, but keep your hands off Social Security and Medicare.
    Who you are talking to? I've regularly bashed Trump for his tariffs. Hell I thought the agreement for unemployment hashed out by Trump and Democrats (first stimulus) was utter dog shit. The world needs less government not more and sadly Republicans may talk big about limiting the size of government, they end up never getting around to doing it.

  5. #695
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  6. #696
    Fuck the Lincoln Project.
    Greater than the odds, higher than the stakes
    One shot to change the course, with no room for mistakes
    Bound with stronger will, in the hands of time
    So where's the pawn that turns the tide and keeps the game alive?

  7. #697
    I'm curious as to everyone's thoughts. If Trump wins the election by a similar margin as last time or greater what are your top reasons for why he won?

  8. #698
    Won't happen. Only way he "wins" is if GOP state governments send a Republican slate of electors even in states won by Biden.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  9. #699
    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    Won't happen. Only way he "wins" is if GOP state governments send a Republican slate of electors even in states won by Biden.
    Nate Silver is giving Trump a 12% chance currently.

  10. #700
    Nate Silver doesn't want to get burned again. No one's coming back from being down 10+% 2 weeks before an election, especially with record early voting numbers. The country is too polarized. There aren't enough persuadable voters.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  11. #701
    Quote Originally Posted by Lewkowski View Post
    I'm curious as to everyone's thoughts. If Trump wins the election by a similar margin as last time or greater what are your top reasons for why he won?
    Fraud, voter suppression and America no longer being a democracy.

    Silver gives Biden more chance of being over 400 ECVs than Trump has of winning.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  12. #702
    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    Nate Silver doesn't want to get burned again. No one's coming back from being down 10+% 2 weeks before an election, especially with record early voting numbers. The country is too polarized. There aren't enough persuadable voters.
    Also the stability of the polling this year is remarkable and totally different to 2016.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  13. #703
    Quote Originally Posted by Lewkowski View Post
    I'm curious as to everyone's thoughts. If Trump wins the election by a similar margin as last time or greater what are your top reasons for why he won?
    American lives aren't a thing Republicans worry about.
    Fiscal responsibility isn't a thing Republicans worry about.
    Family values aren't a thing the Republicans worry about.

    Those are my top 3. And Trump doesn't have to win to make that true.
    I could have had class. I could have been a contender.
    I could have been somebody. Instead of a bum
    Which is what I am

    I aim at the stars
    But sometimes I hit London

  14. #704
    Silver's prediction is that there is a 12% chance of the polls being wrong enough for Trump to win, not that there's a 12% change he might pull it back in the last two weeks.
    Greater than the odds, higher than the stakes
    One shot to change the course, with no room for mistakes
    Bound with stronger will, in the hands of time
    So where's the pawn that turns the tide and keeps the game alive?

  15. #705
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    Silver's prediction is that there is a 12% chance of the polls being wrong enough for Trump to win, not that there's a 12% change he might pull it back in the last two weeks.
    The 12% covers both.

    He factors in both the chance that the polls were wrong and the chance of the polls moving between now and election day. As every day passes without the polls moving the Trump odds are reduced as he is running out of road.

    Though election day itself matters less this year than any other. Even if news breaks today that moves the dial, tens of millions have already voted.

    Eg over 4 million Texans have already voted versus just under 9 million in 2016.

    Has anyone here voted yet?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  16. #706
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    Silver's prediction is that there is a 12% chance of the polls being wrong enough for Trump to win, not that there's a 12% change he might pull it back in the last two weeks.
    That would be an unprecedented polling error. There is far less uncertainty now than in 2016. We know which groups vote for Trump. Third parties aren't doing nearly as well. The voters are far more polarized (meaning few people willing to change their minds). And a ton of people already voted, which means their votes can't be changed and also that Democrats are voting at far higher rates than Republicans (compared to other recent elections). Even if everything goes Trump's way at this point, he'll lose. His only path to victory is election outcomes being ignored.

    I, along with most people I know here, voted despite some pretty crazy lines for some of them. I know that's anecdotal evidence, but it's also consistent with vote tallies by party in this state. Trump might still win here, but the fact it's close doesn't say much for his chances in other nearby states.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  17. #707
    Greater than the odds, higher than the stakes
    One shot to change the course, with no room for mistakes
    Bound with stronger will, in the hands of time
    So where's the pawn that turns the tide and keeps the game alive?

  18. #708
    There is an equal probability of a 6% swing in the other direction. And even that 6% swing for Trump would be insufficient at this point given how many people voted. He'd need close to a 9% swing.

    And once again, voters are far more polarized. Trump hasn't had an approval of 47% since Jan. 2017.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  19. #709
    From the data I saw early voters tend massively Democrat whereas the Republicans tend to turn out more on the day itself, and in any case early voters do not necessarily represent people who were open to changing their mind.
    Greater than the odds, higher than the stakes
    One shot to change the course, with no room for mistakes
    Bound with stronger will, in the hands of time
    So where's the pawn that turns the tide and keeps the game alive?

  20. #710
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    From the data I saw early voters tend massively Democrat whereas the Republicans tend to turn out more on the day itself, and in any case early voters do not necessarily represent people who were open to changing their mind.
    Generally true, but the percentage of early voters who are Democrats is much higher than usual.

    As for people changing their minds: look at Trump's approval over time.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  21. #711
    Well, that could either represent higher Dem turn out and depressed GOP turnout, or increased turnout across the board. For me there are still too many unknowns at play to say Biden definitely has it in the bag.

    Speaking of approval ratings, it's wild that Trump's approval rating is better than Bush's was when he left office. George Bush was by no metric a good president or person, by the idea that there are 10-20% of people out there who think he was worse at presidenting than Donald Trump is a bit staggering.
    Greater than the odds, higher than the stakes
    One shot to change the course, with no room for mistakes
    Bound with stronger will, in the hands of time
    So where's the pawn that turns the tide and keeps the game alive?

  22. #712
    After 1 day of early voting in my county
    "In a field where an overlooked bug could cost millions, you want people who will speak their minds, even if they’re sometimes obnoxious about it."

  23. #713
    I've read a take about how Trump's personality may influence his chances.

    What is most important for Trump? Trump and being the best <insert anything here>

    Trump has ignored all advice given to him with regard to the last weeks of the election, and is continuing on a path that even his close personal staff deem destructive. Trump already has decided: if he loses the election, it's because it's rigged. Because he is the best president ever. So he can't be blamed for the loss. So that is one option. The other option is to take the advice his staff has given him, which means basically not being a toddler about everything. But he can't change course, because that would mean he would second guess himself, and because he's the best president ever, that would be foolish.

    The only thing that is important to Trump is the image he has created about himself in his little mind. It's the reason he craves the rally attention, because those people act according to what he would expect, being the best president ever. Journalists asking him difficult questions, do not compute, after all, how can you be critical of the best president ever? So he walks out of those. And if he can't walk out, he'll bash whoever is interviewing him.
    I could have had class. I could have been a contender.
    I could have been somebody. Instead of a bum
    Which is what I am

    I aim at the stars
    But sometimes I hit London

  24. #714
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    Well, that could either represent higher Dem turn out and depressed GOP turnout, or increased turnout across the board. For me there are still too many unknowns at play to say Biden definitely has it in the bag.

    Speaking of approval ratings, it's wild that Trump's approval rating is better than Bush's was when he left office. George Bush was by no metric a good president or person, by the idea that there are 10-20% of people out there who think he was worse at presidenting than Donald Trump is a bit staggering.
    Even if turnout goes up across the board, Biden benefits. There is no reason to think turnout will go up more for Republicans. There's plenty of reason to think the opposite.

    The era of unanimous support for your party's president only started with Obama.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  25. #715
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    From the data I saw early voters tend massively Democrat whereas the Republicans tend to turn out more on the day itself, and in any case early voters do not necessarily represent people who were open to changing their mind.
    In Texas more turnout now already is past the 50% point of 2016. The numbers who have already voted is unprecedented. Some states could hit all of their 2016 voters voting before election day at this rate.

    Nationally at last count 24.5% have already voted.

    https://electproject.github.io/Early...20G/index.html
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  26. #716
    Quote Originally Posted by Ziggy Stardust View Post
    I've read a take about how Trump's personality may influence his chances.

    [...]
    Right, so I think I know where the guy who wrote the comment I read got this from.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/20/p...set/index.html

    I did enjoy this part though.
    Consider this story. During the middle of an intense session with his bankers in 1990 -- where his debt holders were hammering out a five-year plan to repay his personal debts -- Trump stopped the proceedings and asked an aide to bring in a box of books."I would like to thank all the banks here for your help," he said, according to Alan Pomerantz, an attorney who represented the interests of 72 banks. Trump then proceeds to sign the books for the bankers. The book: The Art of the Deal. Which, as Pomerantz put it, "is about how fabulous he is."
    So even the bankers -- who were taking over his properties -- were treated to free signed books about Trump's business acumen. Go figure.
    I could have had class. I could have been a contender.
    I could have been somebody. Instead of a bum
    Which is what I am

    I aim at the stars
    But sometimes I hit London

  27. #717
    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/1...cabinet-429972

    are you fucking kidding me with this shit
    Greater than the odds, higher than the stakes
    One shot to change the course, with no room for mistakes
    Bound with stronger will, in the hands of time
    So where's the pawn that turns the tide and keeps the game alive?

  28. #718
    Do you honestly have a problem with, say, Charlie Baker serving in a technocratic position in the cabinet?
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  29. #719
    Quote Originally Posted by wiggin View Post
    Do you honestly have a problem with, say, Charlie Baker serving in a technocratic position in the cabinet?
    Of course I do. The question, wig, is why you don't.
    Greater than the odds, higher than the stakes
    One shot to change the course, with no room for mistakes
    Bound with stronger will, in the hands of time
    So where's the pawn that turns the tide and keeps the game alive?

  30. #720
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/1...cabinet-429972

    are you fucking kidding me with this shit
    You're upset he might follow the precedence of Obama and Bill Clinton rather than the precedence of Trump?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

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