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Thread: covid-19

  1. #3001
    You can if you want to, but there's little point me doing it because you just ignore the substance and lash out in ad hominems instead. Because you have nothing of substance to say.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  2. #3002
    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    Taking a break from bashing my head against the brick wall of illiteracy for a moment, I can report that, with the third wave ahead of us, tens of thousands of Swedes from all over the country have decided to travel—many by train—to crowded ski resorts for a week (over sports break) based on inaccurate and misleading statements from our ministry of public health implying that this won't increase covid transmission. A number of preschools have therefore decided to remain closed for a week following sports break, to reduce likelihood of kids infecting each other or staff. Many of the arguments against stricter control measures have revolved around concerns about kids in difficult social and economic circumstances, who will no doubt benefit from having to stay home for another week because some other kids' families decided going skiing during a pandemic was absolutely necessary.

    My own region has seen a recent surge in cases and hospitalizations, so one of my wards is now primarily a covid ward, and one of the others is at capacity due to doubling as an overflow ward for several other clinics. Most doctors at my clinic have now received their first dose (not me though, due to scheduling issues). Initially, we expected around 1 in 3 would have to stay home due to post-vaccination fever, but now it looks like half or more get fever, chills and other difficult side-effects lasting anything from 1 to 3 days. At some clinics, almost every member of the staff that has been vaccinated has had to stay home for one or more days. We're trying to mitigate this problem through careful scheduling, but it's not easy, and it really caught some clinics in other regions by surprise. Doesn't seem to be an issue with specific batches or clearly correlate with prior covid. Might be cultural, I guess... or reflect pre-existing immunity to part of the vector? Who knows.
    20% rise in number of patients in ICU over the past 10 days. Expected to keep rising at a similar pace for a while. Tens of thousands of Swedish families from all over the country are gathering in crowded resorts to celebrate this. But remember: it's the immigrants' fault.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  3. #3003
    Not good to see a rise in ICU patients. Hopefully now you've caught up on vaccinating people you'll see that come down swiftly.

    It isn't the immigrants fault. It isn't any citizens fault, there is a vaccine available and you agree with von der Leyen that you have caught up on it apparently so restrictions should be getting removed soon and ICU numbers should be coming down as the vaccine does its job now.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  4. #3004
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Not good to see a rise in ICU patients. Hopefully now you've caught up on vaccinating people you'll see that come down swiftly.

    It isn't the immigrants fault. It isn't any citizens fault, there is a vaccine available and you agree with von der Leyen that you have caught up on it apparently so restrictions should be getting removed soon and ICU numbers should be coming down as the vaccine does its job now.
    That does not logically follow at all, which you would've realized if you'd been capable of reading—and thinking critically. First of all, Sweden has practically no restrictions to remove. Secondly, the groups that have been vaccinated are not among the groups that end up in ICU; the median age of covid patients in the ICU is just over 60, whereas the groups that have been prioritized are either very old and very frail—typically well over 70 with severe comorbidities—or young/middle-aged healthcare workers, with the former generally not qualifying for ICU and the latter generally not needing ICU. Thirdly, even though the share of the population that has been fully immunized is three times higher in Sweden than in the UK, it's still a very small share of the overall population; there would be no reason to expect a lifting of restrictions soon even if there had been any—esp. in light of rising case- & hospitalization numbers that are likely to be boosted by all the traveling and mingling that'll occur over the coming week. So, really, your comment was very stupid on multiple levels—which you would've realized, if you'd been capable of reading and thinking critically. It's such a low bar to clear, and yet you keep failing to even reach it.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  5. #3005
    It does follow if you dropped your pigheaded refusal to understand the points others make you'd have realised I was right and have been right for months. Instead you'd rather continue to deal with people in ICU it seems instead.

    First of all your restrictions aren't as minimal as the fantasy pedestal our lunatics put you on. There are some though they're less than other countries and more guidelines than law that's true. We're looking to eliminate all restrictions potentially by 21/6, when do you think all of yours will be phased out by?

    Secondly the groups that have been vaccinated in this country, which you've "caught up" on are those that end up in ICU. By now almost all over 60s in this country have been vaccinated, as well as the under 60s classed as vulnerable, which is why ICU numbers are plummetting here now rapidly.

    Thirdly again a single dose works at preventing hospitalisations, as I told you months ago. Very few over 60s are now entering our hospitals because of the fact they've been vaccinated which you've apparently caught up with. Comparing only the "Fully immunised" is bullshit spin and not about preventing hospitalisations and deaths, it is merely attempting to save face not save lives.

    My comment was to the point and accurate. It is your dogma, lies, spin and bullshit that is failing instead. Actually getting vaccines, using them and vaccinating people stops so many from going to ICU, if your numbers are going up its a tragedy caused by not vaccinating enough people that cuts through bullshit lies about having "caught up". Lies that mean people will die because of this avoidable failure that you're trying to excuse with spin and idiocy.

    Your delusions are now running into reality and rather than admit you called this wrong, rather than admit vaccine procurement was fucked up, rather than admit vaccines work, rather than admit single doses work, rather than admit Von Der Leyen lied through her teeth saying you were catching up, rather than admit I was right, rather than admit the British government have done a far better job on this ... Instead you accuse others of not understanding just because we aren't as in denial as you are. It's sad I pity you and I pity the people who are avoidably in ICU for the lack of a vaccine dose.

    Edit: PS mingling in the coming week is only going to see ICU numbers because people are unvaccinated. As I warned you for months but you refuse to concede. Your remarks about stupidity and lack of reading comprehension really are reflecting yourself not me.
    Last edited by RandBlade; 03-01-2021 at 01:33 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  6. #3006
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    It does follow if you dropped your pigheaded refusal to understand the points others make you'd have realised I was right and have been right for months. Instead you'd rather continue to deal with people in ICU it seems instead.

    First of all your restrictions aren't as minimal as the fantasy pedestal our lunatics put you on. There are some though they're less than other countries and more guidelines than law that's true. We're looking to eliminate all restrictions potentially by 21/6, when do you think all of yours will be phased out by?

    Secondly the groups that have been vaccinated in this country, which you've "caught up" on are those that end up in ICU. By now almost all over 60s in this country have been vaccinated, as well as the under 60s classed as vulnerable, which is why ICU numbers are plummetting here now rapidly.

    Thirdly again a single dose works at preventing hospitalisations, as I told you months ago. Very few over 60s are now entering our hospitals because of the fact they've been vaccinated which you've apparently caught up with. Comparing only the "Fully immunised" is bullshit spin and not about preventing hospitalisations and deaths, it is merely attempting to save face not save lives.

    My comment was to the point and accurate. It is your dogma, lies, spin and bullshit that is failing instead. Actually getting vaccines, using them and vaccinating people stops so many from going to ICU, if your numbers are going up its a tragedy caused by not vaccinating enough people that cuts through bullshit lies about having "caught up". Lies that mean people will die because of this avoidable failure that you're trying to excuse with spin and idiocy.

    Your delusions are now running into reality and rather than admit you called this wrong, rather than admit vaccine procurement was fucked up, rather than admit vaccines work, rather than admit single doses work, rather than admit Von Der Leyen lied through her teeth saying you were catching up, rather than admit I was right, rather than admit the British government have done a far better job on this ... Instead you accuse others of not understanding just because we aren't as in denial as you are. It's sad I pity you and I pity the people who are avoidably in ICU for the lack of a vaccine dose.

    Edit: PS mingling in the coming week is only going to see ICU numbers because people are unvaccinated. As I warned you for months but you refuse to concede. Your remarks about stupidity and lack of reading comprehension really are reflecting yourself not me.
    Hey, look, if you want to have a discussion, maybe you should begin by reading the post you're responding to and even quoting. It's really not that much to ask.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  7. #3007
    I did. I matched my first, second and third to yours. Though you're either too thick or too pigheaded to understand it, it seems.

    Here I'll try in picture form for you, just generated this for you. You're choosing the wrong button still.


    If I was better at Photoshop the man really should be wearing a blue jumper with a circle of yellow stars.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  8. #3008
    All right, I have a short break so I will once again help you read/understand/recall posts because you're either too lazy or too stupid/illiterate to manage it on your own.

    Let's begin with your stupid conspiracy theory about Sanofi:

    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    The EU's procurement scheme has been dominated by the worst forms of European nationalism. Pfizer literally offered the EU hundreds of millions of more doses but the French were unhappy at giving so many extra doses to a German company so they were turned down. Instead the first vaccine signed by the EU was the Sanofi vaccine which not only isn't authorised it hasn't even started its Phase III trial yet! 300 million doses signed first to a French company that may begin Phase III trials in a few months time and could potentially be available by the end of 2021 if the EU is lucky at this rate.

    [...]

    It is borderline corrupt and inexcusable.

    [...]

    Does anyone want to justify the EU prioritising and signing first 300 million doses to French Sanofi knowing full well that it is so far behind in its development that six months after it was signed it still hasn't even begun Phase III trials yet - then being so slow and late to sign the doses for every other scheme like Pfizer and AZN which were well into Phase III when they were being signed up by the rest of the world before the EU.
    The only inexcusable thing about this was, of course, the fact that you tried to push a Daily Mirror-style conspiracy theory based on a lie. The contract with Sanofi was not the first one to be signed, and the hope was for Sanofi to be able to produce large quantities of an easily handled vaccine that could be deployed in countries that might struggle with the cold chain requirements of the other putative candidates, by the end of 2021. Do you know why you pushed that asinine conspiracy theory? It's because you're an idiot—and incredibly lazy to boot. You would've been able to dismiss this conspiracy theory all on your own if you hadn't been a lazy idiot, but you swallowed it whole and then regurgitated here in this thread because that's just the kind of idiot you are.

    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    First of all your restrictions aren't as minimal as the fantasy pedestal our lunatics put you on. There are some though they're less than other countries and more guidelines than law that's true. We're looking to eliminate all restrictions potentially by 21/6, when do you think all of yours will be phased out by?
    Which restrictions are you talking about? Be specific, RB. I live here, and I have a clear idea of what restrictions there actually are. I suspect you do not, but you're welcome to try to prove me wrong. Which restrictions do you believe there are to phase out?

    Secondly the groups that have been vaccinated in this country, which you've "caught up" on are those that end up in ICU. By now almost all over 60s in this country have been vaccinated, as well as the under 60s classed as vulnerable, which is why ICU numbers are plummetting here now rapidly.
    This has next to no bearing on the point you're addressing. You're trying to formulate a confused argument about the UK, but the subject of discussion is Sweden. Practically none of the very old and very frail people who have received the vaccine here are or would be candidate for ICU admission; were they to develop severe covid, they would either die in the care facilities where they reside, or, at most—and this is unlikely tbh—be limited to care in a regular ward, perhaps with a few qualifying for intermediate care which is sometimes managed in the ICU at smaller hospitals. In other words, vaccinating this group should not be expected to have any impact at all on ICU numbers in Sweden—which means the point you were trying to make was stupid.

    Thirdly again a single dose works at preventing hospitalisations, as I told you months ago. Very few over 60s are now entering our hospitals because of the fact they've been vaccinated which you've apparently caught up with. Comparing only the "Fully immunised" is bullshit spin and not about preventing hospitalisations and deaths, it is merely attempting to save face not save lives.
    This has no relevance to the point you were responding to—or, indeed, on anything else. I say this because the point you were responding to was that fully immunizing a few percent of the population should not be expected to have any impact at all on hospitalizations.

    My comment was to the point and accurate. It is your dogma, lies, spin and bullshit that is failing instead. Actually getting vaccines, using them and vaccinating people stops so many from going to ICU, if your numbers are going up its a tragedy caused by not vaccinating enough people that cuts through bullshit lies about having "caught up". Lies that mean people will die because of this avoidable failure that you're trying to excuse with spin and idiocy.
    Or maybe cases rising has something to do with the absence of meaningful restrictions, refusal to use face masks, near-total disregard for physical distancing, and tens of thousands of people traveling to crowded resorts. I mean, from a basic epidemiological standpoint—and, in light of what we've learned over the course of the past year—I feel like those things might have some relevance to trends in case numbers. Granted I don't attend the Preston Uni dept. of Epidemiology that has been responsible for so many brilliant scientific insights about recommendations, restrictions, surveillance etc. over the past year ( ) but I'm still pretty sure people crowding together in bars, restaurants, subway cars and buses, schools and preschools, and ski resorts... has a pretty big impact on case numbers.

    Your delusions are now running into reality and rather than admit you called this wrong, rather than admit vaccine procurement was fucked up, rather than admit vaccines work, rather than admit single doses work, rather than admit Von Der Leyen lied through her teeth saying you were catching up, rather than admit I was right, rather than admit the British government have done a far better job on this ... Instead you accuse others of not understanding just because we aren't as in denial as you are.
    I say you can't read or think critically because it's so very obvious that you can't. This last remark, for example, has no relevance to the current discussion; it's just about your desperate thirst for unearned credit. Reading your posts is like listening to a dull-witted fan who's furious about the ref cheating him out of goals because he doesn't understand the offside rule and thinks he's the one playing the game. Try to focus on the game, RB—and learn the rules.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  9. #3009
    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    All right, I have a short break so I will once again help you read/understand/recall posts because you're either too lazy or too stupid/illiterate to manage it on your own.

    Let's begin with your stupid conspiracy theory about Sanofi:

    The only inexcusable thing about this was, of course, the fact that you tried to push a Daily Mirror-style conspiracy theory based on a lie. The contract with Sanofi was not the first one to be signed, and the hope was for Sanofi to be able to produce large quantities of an easily handled vaccine that could be deployed in countries that might struggle with the cold chain requirements of the other putative candidates, by the end of 2021. Do you know why you pushed that asinine conspiracy theory? It's because you're an idiot—and incredibly lazy to boot. You would've been able to dismiss this conspiracy theory all on your own if you hadn't been a lazy idiot, but you swallowed it whole and then regurgitated here in this thread because that's just the kind of idiot you are.
    It was neither a lie nor a conspiracy theory. That was the dates in the chart shared by reputable journalists. Depending upon how you measure it there's other dates available that change it marginally from the first to one of the first. Still signed before many reputable Phase III vaccines were which were signed months too late. There was no logic to delay signing Phase III vaccine development for months while rushing into a Phase II one. You might be gullible enough to think its a conspiracy theory to believe nationalism played a role, I'm rather more sceptical than you.
    Which restrictions are you talking about? Be specific, RB. I live here, and I have a clear idea of what restrictions there actually are. I suspect you do not, but you're welcome to try to prove me wrong. Which restrictions do you believe there are to phase out?
    According to this site: https://www.krisinformation.se/en/ha...ner-och-forbud
    Restrictions on gatherings of more than 8 people.
    A prohibition on serving alcohol past 8pm
    An 8:30pm closure of hospitality.

    Is that site unreliable?

    This has next to no bearing on the point you're addressing. You're trying to formulate a confused argument about the UK, but the subject of discussion is Sweden. Practically none of the very old and very frail people who have received the vaccine here are or would be candidate for ICU admission; were they to develop severe covid, they would either die in the care facilities where they reside, or, at most—and this is unlikely tbh—be limited to care in a regular ward, perhaps with a few qualifying for intermediate care which is sometimes managed in the ICU at smaller hospitals. In other words, vaccinating this group should not be expected to have any impact at all on ICU numbers in Sweden—which means the point you were trying to make was stupid.
    *facepalm*

    Did you miss the remarks about having "caught up". Did that point fly completely over your head?

    If you'd really caught up on vaccines relative to the UK, as opposed to defending bullshit face saving bare faced lies, these people would have been eligible by now for a vaccine. The fact they're not is because you have in fact not actually caught up. Do you understand now?

    It isn't about how many people 'have received' the vaccine since my point was to criticise the absence of people having received it - the point was about how many people 'could have' received the vaccine if von der Leyen's lie you rushed to defend with cynical face saving alternative facts were true. What it would be like if you had really to quote "caught up".
    This has no relevance to the point you were responding to—or, indeed, on anything else. I say this because the point you were responding to was that fully immunizing a few percent of the population should not be expected to have any impact at all on hospitalizations.
    "A few percent"

    Define a few percent? 3% 5%? Few is normally 3 or more but not many.

    Who said anything about a few percent? I was speaking about you having in the lying words of von der Leyen that you defended having "caught up" with the UK. That is not a meagre "few" percent. It has not been a meagre "few" percent in a very long time now.

    Though having said that every few percent vaccinated has greater than a few percent impact on disease because of the targetted way the virus strikes vulnerable groups, we can target for vaccination the groups it hits.
    Or maybe cases rising has something to do with the absence of meaningful restrictions, refusal to use face masks, near-total disregard for physical distancing, and tens of thousands of people traveling to crowded resorts. I mean, from a basic epidemiological standpoint—and, in light of what we've learned over the course of the past year—I feel like those things might have some relevance to trends in case numbers. Granted I don't attend the Preston Uni dept. of Epidemiology that has been responsible for so many brilliant scientific insights about recommendations, restrictions, surveillance etc. over the past year ( ) but I'm still pretty sure people crowding together in bars, restaurants, subway cars and buses, schools and preschools, and ski resorts... has a pretty big impact on case numbers.
    Yeah guess what - people do that. Is this your first day of the pandemic, that's been happening all along at various levels. Often in waves as people get frightened when cases spike then ease off when they fall back down. Welcome to the real world, sorry if it doesn't match your Authoritarian Handbook where you can just order everyone to stay at home and expect it to be listened to.

    That's why we need a solution to end the pandemic. To make people less likely to pass on the virus if they do have it. To make people less likely to get sick if they catch it. To make people less likely to be hospitalised if they get sick. To make people less likely to die if they get hospitalised. You could call that solution . . . drumroll please . . . a vaccine - it was made available nearly four months ago now and more than "a few percent" should have it by now.
    I say you can't read or think critically because it's so very obvious that you can't. This last remark, for example, has no relevance to the current discussion; it's just about your desperate thirst for unearned credit. Reading your posts is like listening to a dull-witted fan who's furious about the ref cheating him out of goals because he doesn't understand the offside rule and thinks he's the one playing the game. Try to focus on the game, RB—and learn the rules.
    I get the rules. Vaccines work. We aren't being denied goals, while it isn't over yet by any means currently we're winning and kicking ass at defeating this bloody bug because they do.

    I don't want credit. I want our neighbours to catch up with us, to learn from our success, so that people on the continent can stop dying so much and reduce the risk to everybody of a new variant evolving that might evade the vaccine more substantially. The sooner this bug is defeated the better for everyone, it isn't satisfying to see it being squished just in the UK when a solution is available to all, I take no schadenfreude in your suffering I want your suffering to end by you lot dropping your hubris and acknowledging other people have a solution that works.

    Israel and the UK are leading the way in showing how to end this pandemic. Drop your arrogance, learn some lessons and just bloody do it too so you can too. And stop pretending or claiming that you have, the first step to getting change is to end denial.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  10. #3010
    More "pseudoscience" from the "quasi ineffective" vaccine.

    One dose alone reduces hospitalisations by 80%. Fanbloodytastic. Keep denying single doses work or should be counted all you like, I'll celebrate lives being saved and hope people learn from this.

    Last edited by RandBlade; 03-01-2021 at 05:34 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  11. #3011
    wiggin - given real world English and Scottish data now confirms an 80% reduction in hospitalisations after just a single dose, even for over 80s, do you agree that in hindsight giving a single dose to twice as many people works and is a good idea?

    Do you in hindsight now think it should be adopted elsewhere, where vaccine supplies are limited and the vulnerable haven't all been vaccinated yet?

    PS good that the French have finally lifted their bloody stupid ban on the AZN vaccine being given to over 65s, how many lives has the moronic action cost? What a shame Macron and his ilk have done immense damage feeding antivaxxers in his country and elsewhere by causing the vaccine "ineffective". Germany still seems to have their ban in place despite the EMA approving it and despite the real world data, idiots.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  12. #3012
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    wiggin - given real world English and Scottish data now confirms an 80% reduction in hospitalisations after just a single dose, even for over 80s, do you agree that in hindsight giving a single dose to twice as many people works and is a good idea?

    Do you in hindsight now think it should be adopted elsewhere, where vaccine supplies are limited and the vulnerable haven't all been vaccinated yet?
    I don't know how many times I need to say this:

    1. We do not know the counterfactual, about how things would look on a population level with vaccinations following the as-tested dosing.
    2. We do not know the long term efficacy, data are still quite early.
    3. Because neither of these things have been tested in a systematic manner, we will likely never know if the UK's gamble paid off.
    4. Even if we do end up finding adequate evidence in the fullness of time that implies that their gamble did pay off, it was not a justified gamble based on the evidence that was available at the time.
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  13. #3013
    1. Yes we do. The Israeli data and trial data confirms that the half as many people who would have been protected would have had 95% protection, but given limited supply half the people would have had zero protection. Unvaccinated people have zero protection, you don't dispute that do you? The UK data confirms as expected that twice as many people have 80% protection.
    2. True, not long term that will come. We do have short term for dealing with an ongoing pandemic.
    3. We already know now. Deaths are cratering through the floor. Plenty of data on that available.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  14. #3014
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    1. Yes we do. The Israeli data and trial data confirms that the half as many people who would have been protected would have had 95% protection, but given limited supply half the people would have had zero protection. Unvaccinated people have zero protection, you don't dispute that do you? The UK data confirms as expected that twice as many people have 80% protection.
    I cannot emphasize enough how you cannot compare apples to oranges. The UK and Israeli pandemics are entirely different and generalizing from one to the other (not to mention the very different populations studied in each dataset) is extremely fraught. You're not even looking at the same endpoints.

    Furthermore, you're not looking at much broader questions about how the virus spreads among the uninfected as a function of many variables that may be influenced by a given vaccination dosing regimen, including premature loosening of restrictions, asymptomatic transmission among the partially vaccinated, protection against different variants, possibilities for undervaccinated populations to allow for low level circulation leading to new variants, etc. There just isn't an adequate dataset to tell us this because it hasn't been studied in controlled circumstances.

    2. True, not long term that will come. We do have short term for dealing with an ongoing pandemic.
    The ongoing pandemic will easily continue to be an issue through at least 2022, even in the rich world. You're basing your triumphalism on the basis of - what, 1-2 months of data?

    3. We already know now. Deaths are cratering through the floor. Plenty of data on that available.
    I guarantee that with any vaccination regime you would see falling deaths. The question isn't whether getting vaccines into arms is a good thing, the question is whether getting vaccines into arms following a clinically tested protocol is better or worse than getting vaccines into arms following an untested protocol supported by supposition.

    4. Why not? The data was there all along which is what was acted on, this wasn't some unknown stab in the dark.
    'The data' weren't there in that they continue to not exist. In a future world where detailed modeling of the morbidity and transmission that came out of the UK's experiment and is compared to many, many other vaccine rollouts following as-tested protocols, we might have an inkling of if it was or was not a better strategy than following the as tested protocol. However we do not have this information now, nor did UK policymakers have it a couple months ago.
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  15. #3015
    Quote Originally Posted by wiggin View Post
    I cannot emphasize enough how you cannot compare apples to oranges. The UK and Israeli pandemics are entirely different and generalizing from one to the other (not to mention the very different populations studied in each dataset) is extremely fraught. You're not even looking at the same endpoints.

    Furthermore, you're not looking at much broader questions about how the virus spreads among the uninfected as a function of many variables that may be influenced by a given vaccination dosing regimen, including premature loosening of restrictions, asymptomatic transmission among the partially vaccinated, protection against different variants, possibilities for undervaccinated populations to allow for low level circulation leading to new variants, etc. There just isn't an adequate dataset to tell us this because it hasn't been studied in controlled circumstances.
    Both have locally calculated the effect of their dosing regime versus the unvaccinated. So ~95% if 2 doses versus the unvaccinated (Israel) or ~80% if 1 dose versus the unvaccinated (UK). Both confirmed the data we had if read properly from the trials but on a much larger scale, it is not a vacuum.

    Restrictions are a political not vaccine decision and they've varied nation to nation, in some cases location to location and week to week.
    The ongoing pandemic will easily continue to be an issue through at least 2022, even in the rich world. You're basing your triumphalism on the basis of - what, 1-2 months of data?
    We'll see.

    This country is planning to abolish its legal distancing requirements by 21 June, the traditional final day of spring. I expect daily deaths by that point will be close to single figures. Excess deaths I expect to be eliminated before then. The pandemic is nearly over here, because the vaccine has been rolled out. It will continue elsewhere where it hasn't I agree.

    If the UK can in the first half of this year rapidly eliminate deaths, see no further waves and remove restrictions without seeing deaths resurge before other nations do the same would that be enough to convince you.
    I guarantee that with any vaccination regime you would see falling deaths. The question isn't whether getting vaccines into arms is a good thing, the question is whether getting vaccines into arms following a clinically tested protocol is better or worse than getting vaccines into arms following an untested protocol supported by supposition.
    Yes but half as many people would be vaccinated following your "clinically tested protocol". That's the point you seem to struggle with, it isn't clinically tested versus untested - it is for any given level of supply half left unvaccinated while half are vaccinated to clinically tested standards, or a clinically untested but scientifically advantageous protocol.

    There is an opportunity cost to following your protocol. That opportunity cost is leaving unvaccinated half the population you could be vaccinating.
    'The data' weren't there in that they continue to not exist. In a future world where detailed modeling of the morbidity and transmission that came out of the UK's experiment and is compared to many, many other vaccine rollouts following as-tested protocols, we might have an inkling of if it was or was not a better strategy than following the as tested protocol. However we do not have this information now, nor did UK policymakers have it a couple months ago.
    Sure we do. We know the unvaccinated get no protection, we know the double vaccinated get 95% and the single vaccinated 80%. This is what the trials demonstrated, what the scientists here identified, what the decision was based on and what the real world shows is really occuring.

    So the choice is a marginal increase of 15% for half as many people, or an 80% for twice as many people.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  16. #3016
    I do not think there is additional value in me repeating myself.
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  17. #3017
    Since you think the ongoing pandemic will easily continue to be an issue through at least 2022 if the UK can in the first half of this year rapidly eliminate deaths, see no further waves and remove restrictions without seeing deaths resurge before other nations do the same would that be enough to convince you?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  18. #3018
    No.
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  19. #3019
    Well that's pretty extreme.

    Is there anything that could convince you?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  20. #3020
    I do not believe there is anything that can convince me that based on information available at the time of the decision the UK made a scientifically sound decision. The only thing that would change my mind is if there becomes more information available publicly that they were privy to at the time of the decision, such as detailed modeling based on unpublished data on transmission rates and vaccine efficacy.

    If you are asking whether I will ever be convinced that the UK's vaccination strategy was effective at reducing death and severe disease in their population, I am already convinced that is the case.

    If you are asking whether I will ever be convinced that the UK's vaccination strategy was superior to an alternative strategy, such as following the as-tested protocol, I doubt there will ever be adequate information to make that conclusion, no. I speculate in a previous post about the kind of analysis that might be helpful in drawing that conclusion, but I am doubtful such an analysis will be feasible or particularly convincing.

    It's not extreme, it's science.
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  21. #3021
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    Wiggin, why are you agitating against RandBlade 's right to be a Guinea pig? He clearly will defend whatever test his chancer government will throw at him. We on the outside we should be grateful for the country size testlab they created and thank God for not being born there.

    @Aimless, that's pretty damning what you write about the situation in Sweden.
    Congratulations America

  22. #3022
    You should be grateful you're not getting vaccinated?

    That's an original one Hazir!
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  23. #3023
    Quote Originally Posted by Hazir View Post
    Wiggin, why are you agitating against RandBlade 's right to be a Guinea pig? He clearly will defend whatever test his chancer government will throw at him. We on the outside we should be grateful for the country size testlab they created and thank God for not being born there.

    @Aimless, that's pretty damning what you write about the situation in Sweden.
    Hazir, there's two unrelated issues at hand here. The first is that the UK has done a reasonably good job of sourcing doses and getting shots into arms. I'd say they have done as well or better than any other large Western country, though I expect the US to overtake them in time. This should be celebrated as a success on vaccine rollout, though I don't feel the need to draw explicit comparison with e.g. the EU. I do not think they are being reckless in working to get their population vaccinated as quickly as possible, though I may have some quibbles about the quality of the data used to support the AZN authorization at the time of authorization and its use on older patients (I would have prioritized Pfizer doses for those patients and used AZN for e.g. healthcare workers).

    The second is their choice on dosing strategy, which I find scientifically unfounded and risky. This is an experiment, true, but not one we are likely to learn anything useful from. I certainly hope that the UK is successful in its strategy and think that on the balance it will probably still 'work', though we will likely never know if it will work as well as following the as tested strategy.

    There are many other things to criticize the UK about regarding their pandemic response, though they are hardly unique in this regard. But I wouldn't criticize them for the alacrity with which they are vaccinating people, just the dosing regime they have chosen without adequate supporting evidence.
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  24. #3024
    So many appointment spots here and in neighboring states. And yet they refuse to move on to the next group. Which means the vaccination rate is ridiculously low. Sheer incompetence mixed with Trumpian delusion.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  25. #3025
    Interesting the US Governors suddenly abolishing all social distancing rules and mask mandates already.

    While with vaccines it should be possible to do that sooner than later it seems rather "brave" to do so in a rather Sir Humphrey sense at this time.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  26. #3026
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    Quote Originally Posted by wiggin View Post
    Hazir, there's two unrelated issues at hand here. The first is that the UK has done a reasonably good job of sourcing doses and getting shots into arms. I'd say they have done as well or better than any other large Western country, though I expect the US to overtake them in time. This should be celebrated as a success on vaccine rollout, though I don't feel the need to draw explicit comparison with e.g. the EU. I do not think they are being reckless in working to get their population vaccinated as quickly as possible, though I may have some quibbles about the quality of the data used to support the AZN authorization at the time of authorization and its use on older patients (I would have prioritized Pfizer doses for those patients and used AZN for e.g. healthcare workers).

    The second is their choice on dosing strategy, which I find scientifically unfounded and risky. This is an experiment, true, but not one we are likely to learn anything useful from. I certainly hope that the UK is successful in its strategy and think that on the balance it will probably still 'work', though we will likely never know if it will work as well as following the as tested strategy.

    There are many other things to criticize the UK about regarding their pandemic response, though they are hardly unique in this regard. But I wouldn't criticize them for the alacrity with which they are vaccinating people, just the dosing regime they have chosen without adequate supporting evidence.
    Unlike some people I can actually read, and when necessary look outside my own box. I feel little desire to score points on who's been best at beating others in the race for a bigger stock of vaccines. My life for sure isn't getting back to anything I would recognize as normal just by everyone in the Netherlands being vaccinated.

    When I look at the successes (of perceived successes) of the UK I can only conclude that they have played fast and slow with the scientific basis for their decisions and could only do so because their government clearly is willing to set lives on the line in case the attempt to escape out of a desperate situation backfires. Another member of this board seems to think that hindsight makes every wild attempt a well reasoned decision.
    Congratulations America

  27. #3027
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    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    So many appointment spots here and in neighboring states. And yet they refuse to move on to the next group. Which means the vaccination rate is ridiculously low. Sheer incompetence mixed with Trumpian delusion.
    But Dolly has had her shot. So that's good news.
    Congratulations America

  28. #3028
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    It was neither a lie nor a conspiracy theory. That was the dates in the chart shared by reputable journalists. Depending upon how you measure it there's other dates available that change it marginally from the first to one of the first. Still signed before many reputable Phase III vaccines were which were signed months too late. There was no logic to delay signing Phase III vaccine development for months while rushing into a Phase II one. You might be gullible enough to think its a conspiracy theory to believe nationalism played a role, I'm rather more sceptical than you.
    Lmao every single dumbfuck antivaxxer, 9/11 truther, election fraud nutjob etc thinks of himself as a "skeptic" rather than a dumb nutter the reality is that you tried to push a conspiracy theory about corruption, for which there is no evidence; this was especially stupid because the contract went to not only "French" Sanofi but also to British GSK. It is even more stupid in light of the fact that both the US and the UK reached their agreements with Sanofi at roughly the same time as they reached their agreements with Pfizer, even though Sanofi's candidate was still in an earlier stage of testing.

    When I called you a lazy & sloppy conspiracy theorist, I didn't expect you to actively try to prove me right the chart in question was something someone else on Twitter had put together, and it contained multiple errors. Bruno shared it uncritically, and you swallowed it whole because you're too lazy, too sloppy, too stupid and too prone to conspiratorial thinking to verify information that appears to support your delusions. Even now you keep trying to defend this stupid conspiracy theory, with increasingly stupid arguments. "No logic" When negotiations conclude depends on the specifics of those negotiations; the negotiations with Sanofi may have concluded shortly before the ones with Pfizer did simply because there was less to disagree about eg. wrt specific commitments—which in itself was likely a result of the time horizon being much longer, and the intended application being very different; the Sanofi contract is primarily intended to procure vaccines for countries who might struggle to deal with cold chain requirements, by the end of 2021. Sanofi only having a Phase II vaccine candidate at the time is something that should be expected to make negotiations move faster; the high risk of failure and lack of prior commitments would've meant the company had less leverage, and distribution outside the EU reduces the legal complexity. Regardless, the conspiracy theory you tried to push was bullshit, with no support other than your so-called "skepticism" ( ). It was textbook conspiracy mongering.

    According to this site: https://www.krisinformation.se/en/ha...ner-och-forbud
    Restrictions on gatherings of more than 8 people.
    A prohibition on serving alcohol past 8pm
    An 8:30pm closure of hospitality.

    Is that site unreliable?
    It is an incomplete translation, and your summary of it is even more incomplete. The restriction on gatherings specifically apply to defined public gatherings and events that occur outside one's home or property, with an exception for cultural and sporting events, for which there's an official limit of 300. The 8:30 PM "closure" of "hospitality" applies to consumption of food on the premises. This is why Swedes are going to work and to school, using public transportation, without wearing masks; why they're traveling to ski resorts; why they're shopping in malls and hanging out at cafés and restaurants in the afternoons, going for brunch on the weekends, and hosting dinner parties whenever. To the extent that people are limiting their activities, they are mostly doing so voluntarily—not because of any laws. I don't even expect most those official restrictions to remain in place for more than a couple of months.

    *facepalm*

    Did you miss the remarks about having "caught up". Did that point fly completely over your head?

    If you'd really caught up on vaccines relative to the UK, as opposed to defending bullshit face saving bare faced lies, these people would have been eligible by now for a vaccine. The fact they're not is because you have in fact not actually caught up. Do you understand now?

    It isn't about how many people 'have received' the vaccine since my point was to criticise the absence of people having received it - the point was about how many people 'could have' received the vaccine if von der Leyen's lie you rushed to defend with cynical face saving alternative facts were true. What it would be like if you had really to quote "caught up".
    You're confused again, perhaps because you haven't kept track of what we're talking about. The frail elderly have been vaccinated, but they are—by and large—not the ones who end up in ICU. Most of the people who do end up in ICU are not the ones who've been going on skiing trips these past couple of weeks. Most of the people who're going on skiing trips are not in the age groups that have been vaccinated, in the UK—they are below the age of 60. The point you're trying to make has no real bearing on the subject being discussed. I understand your compulsion to discuss the point you're fixated on, but it adds nothing to the specific matter being discussed right now. It's just noise.

    "A few percent"

    Define a few percent? 3% 5%? Few is normally 3 or more but not many.
    Just a few posts above yours, in a post that you no doubt tried to read ( yeah, right ), I said:

    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    the share of the population that has been fully immunized is three times higher in Sweden than in the UK
    At the time, this amounted to just over 3% in Sweden, which you could've deduced from the UK's figure, which was just over 1%.

    Who said anything about a few percent? I was speaking about you having in the lying words of von der Leyen that you defended having "caught up" with the UK. That is not a meagre "few" percent. It has not been a meagre "few" percent in a very long time now.
    See, this is another example of your inability to read. vDL's comment about "catching up" was in reference to the share of the population that had been fully immunized. My reference to "a few percent" was also in reference to that metric. Both of these things are readily apparent from the context provided by their resp. source texts.

    Though having said that every few percent vaccinated has greater than a few percent impact on disease because of the targetted way the virus strikes vulnerable groups, we can target for vaccination the groups it hits
    This is why I specifically pointed out that the groups that have been vaccinated are, by and large, not the groups that end up in the ICU.

    Yeah guess what - people do that. Is this your first day of the pandemic, that's been happening all along at various levels. Often in waves as people get frightened when cases spike then ease off when they fall back down. Welcome to the real world, sorry if it doesn't match your Authoritarian Handbook where you can just order everyone to stay at home and expect it to be listened to.
    This has no relevance to what I said, so I'm really not sure what point it is you're trying to make—and I suspect you don't know either.

    I get the rules. Vaccines work. We aren't being denied goals, while it isn't over yet by any means currently we're winning and kicking ass at defeating this bloody bug because they do.

    I don't want credit.
    See, this claim is belied by your pathetic insistence on demanding we admit that you "were right". What exactly have you—personally—been right about that someone else here has been wrong about? When I say you're mad because you don't get the rules, I'm referring to how mad you were about what you thought was unfair criticism of—and inordinate focus on—your government's incompetence, and now your anger at not getting the recognition you think you personally deserve. Nobody has disputed that "vaccines work".

    I want our neighbours to catch up with us, to learn from our success, so that people on the continent can stop dying so much and reduce the risk to everybody of a new variant evolving that might evade the vaccine more substantially. The sooner this bug is defeated the better for everyone, it isn't satisfying to see it being squished just in the UK when a solution is available to all, I take no schadenfreude in your suffering I want your suffering to end by you lot dropping your hubris and acknowledging other people have a solution that works.

    Israel and the UK are leading the way in showing how to end this pandemic. Drop your arrogance, learn some lessons and just bloody do it too so you can too. And stop pretending or claiming that you have, the first step to getting change is to end denial.
    Look, I get it. You obstinately defended your incompetent government's catastrophic decisions that have resulted in tens of thousands of preventable deaths, landing the UK in fourth place globally wrt covid deaths per capita. Your partisan actions were stupid, disgusting, and shameful; I fully understand your desperate desire to try to save face by diverting attention away from your active support of deadly incompetence. But this discussion isn't about your shame or your inferiority complex—it really isn't, mate. Before you respond to this, please meditate for a moment on my story about my friend and the surgeon.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  29. #3029
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    I would like someone to explain to me what the difference is between 'being lucky' and 'being right'.
    Congratulations America

  30. #3030
    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    So many appointment spots here and in neighboring states. And yet they refuse to move on to the next group. Which means the vaccination rate is ridiculously low. Sheer incompetence mixed with Trumpian delusion.
    Same here, a lot of private businesses offering appointments, but still have to follow the age guidelines. It was only yesterday that my mom was allowed to make an appointment due to her condition of breathing through her neck, but she still has to go through the expense and process of getting a doctors approval. That's fucked.
    "In a field where an overlooked bug could cost millions, you want people who will speak their minds, even if they’re sometimes obnoxious about it."

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