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Thread: covid-19

  1. #3271
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    The answer to your question "have they thought about the possibility that this is related to the use of birth control" is that they have thought about both possible association with—and risk of confounding by—the use of hormonal contraceptives; it was widely discussed before the EMA's safety signal review, and touched on at the presser immediately following that review. At the time, they said they were looking into it more closely—but they did not have enough data to even speculatively answer the question. It is a particularly important consideration for some of the types of clotting issues that have been reported (eg. CVST), especially because AZN's vaccine has been preferentially administered—in most of Europe—to groups in which a majority are women in age groups where the use of hormonal contraceptives (as well as clotting disorders) is common; in other words, it was known at the time of the initial review that people who might experience this type of clotting problem after vaccination with AZN's vaccine may well be more likely to use hormonal contraceptives (re. the observation that "very often the people who suffer from it are on birth control"—although it might not be appropriate to say "very often" about such rare occurrences). So the very straightforward answer to your question is: yes—they have thought about that possibility, and it is difficult to determine how—or even if—the use of hormonal contraceptives plays into the issue of more straightforward clotting conditions among people who have been vaccinated with AZN's vaccine.

    What complicates matters are the rarer cases of more weird and more dangerous clotting problems that were initially thought to resemble DIC but are now thought to resemble HIT, giving rise to the term "VIPIT". There are very few reported cases of this possible complication, and the EMA's latest review (as of a few days ago) could not determine any patterns wrt. risk factors for developing this condition. There are too few cases for anyone to be able to draw any firm conclusions.

    The uncertainty is just the reality we have to deal with, when it comes to answering this type of question; it isn't unique to this year or this substance. The straightforward answer to the more important question about whether or not AZN's vaccine is safe enough that the possible risks are outweighed by the overall benefits—at the group level—is: yes.
    I have the strong feeling the risk evaluation is done as if the vaccination is done in a situation where the actual pandemic isn't really happening. If people weren't dying in bigger numbers without the vaccine, not pushing ahead might make sense, but people are dying in much bigger numbers (and that's not even taking into account the other side effects of an overburdened health care system).
    Congratulations America

  2. #3272
    Quote Originally Posted by Hazir View Post
    I have the strong feeling the risk evaluation is done as if the vaccination is done in a situation where the actual pandemic isn't really happening. If people weren't dying in bigger numbers without the vaccine, not pushing ahead might make sense, but people are dying in much bigger numbers (and that's not even taking into account the other side effects of an overburdened health care system).
    Well said again. It is Andrew Wakefield writ large.

    If its not possible to say whether the clots are caused by birth control or not, it isn't possible to suggest that they're caused by the vaccine either quite frankly and stop/starting the scheme isn't "precautionary" it is an egregious and deadly error.

    How many people have died due to the false links between MMR vaccine and autism?

    How many will die due to unsubstantiated links between Covid vaccines and clots?

    It is ignorant, unscientific bullshit and all the Dr Wakefield's out there sharing this bullshit should be thoroughly ashamed.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  3. #3273
    Quote Originally Posted by Hazir View Post
    I have the strong feeling the risk evaluation is done as if the vaccination is done in a situation where the actual pandemic isn't really happening.
    Both yes and no. Yes, in the sense that regulators that recommended pausing the deployment of the AZN vaccine clearly prioritized the potential risk to the individual (on the basis of their understanding of their own regulatory & ethical framework wrt communicating risks, informed consent, and the obligation to not do harm), who were as a rule much more likely to be younger people with very low risk of developing severe covid; no in the sense that they all appear to have explicitly taken that factor into consideration. I know that it was an explicit concern in the debate in the Scandinavian countries, and I think the German regulator also mentioned it (although I don't have a link to their comments on the matter). In the case of our Scandinavian neighbours, the pandemic-associated risk was genuinely very low at the time; in the case of the German regulator—whose decision was more controversial—they appear to have concluded that their regulatory and ethical framework compelled them to pause the rollout until the safety signal could be evaluated. It's a complex issue, so it's not surprising if people arrive at different conclusions even if we don't assume everyone involved is a blinkered idiot.

    Meanwhile, interesting developments in the UK:

    Oxford team pauses pediatric vaccination trial, awaiting updated guidance from MHRA: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-56656356

    JCVI advisor echoing continental talking points re. pausing rollout: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...ccine-certain/

    MHRA has updated figures for the incidence of CVST and possible VIPIT following vaccination: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2BO6Y0 and https://www.gov.uk/government/public...card-reporting

    The real incidence is likely to be higher (although, tbf, the real incidence of CVST in general is probably also likely to be higher than is commonly reported in studies). Some speculation re. possible changes to recommendations for different age groups, but nothing more than rumours at the moment. Current data indicate a clear benefit in people with risk-factors for developing severe covid, but the debate becomes much more complex when you're talking about comparatively young and otherwise healthy people. If the UK has a secure supply of other vaccines by the time those groups are to be vaccinated, the MHRA may be more likely to recommend choosing those alternatives over AZN; difficult to say which approach would entail a greater comms nightmare.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  4. #3274
    My expectation has always been that AZN wouldn't be given to the final 20s and 30s anyway for completely unrelated reasons.

    Quite simply dragging out the dosing schedule to 12 weeks for the original groups was the right thing to do in order to dose more people, while fewer vaccines were available. That was done in order to enable more first doses, not for Pfizer because it required a 12 week gap. However Astrazeneca does require a long gap, it doesn't work as well with a 3-4 week gap.

    Due to the prioritisation scheme the second doses for the very vulnerable are now going out before first doses for 20s and 30s.

    By the time non-priority 20s and 30s will be getting vaccinated, there will be even more vaccines available: Moderna is coming online now, Novavax soon, Johnson & Johnson soon. These are either single dose, or double dose with a shorter interval available.

    Once the young are getting first doses the logic of dragging out to 12 weeks vanishes. There's no point doing that anymore, since there's nobody else waiting behind them. If the under 30s and 20s can be done in a 4 week period, then by the time you've finished doing the 20s you're either going to be moving straight on to second doses for those who got it first at a 4 week interval if you use Pfizer, Moderna, Novavax etc - or be stuck for 2 months with nobody eligible for a dose even though not everyone has their second dose yet if you use Astrazeneca. Or if you have single-dose Johnson & Johnson available then you use that on the 20s and then the vaccination scheme is complete and we can start thinking about autumnal booster shots and exporting doses to the rest of the world/covax.

    There is no point giving a 20-something Astrazeneca, then waiting for months to give them their second dose, if other alternatives are available.

    This changes of course if the trial on mixing-and-matching works. In which case the timing gap issue goes away.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  5. #3275
    Reuters reporter (haven't read any local news source on this):

    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  6. #3276
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    Well, the first invitation for vaccination in this house has just been delivered. For next Monday. I will have to wait longer.
    Congratulations America

  7. #3277
    MHRA recommends other vaccines for under-30s. Makes sense given the very low prevalence of Covid in the UK now, plus the disproportionate risks based on age. Still (obviously) massively beneficial in older groups, but Covid wasn't high risk for under 30s anyway and at very low covid prevalence; there's been no excess deaths in the UK for weeks now, the pandemic is essentially over thanks to the vaccine rollout already done.

    Also confirmed this won't affect the rollout timescale, which is as I expected. It never made sense to use AZN for younger groups anyway given the alternatives coming online.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  8. #3278
    Update from MHRA:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/m...ur-blood-clots

    JCVI advises use of other vaccines in healthy people under 30 (note that the press release above explicitly does not recommend age restrictions): https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2BU287

    New public advice re. headaches and possible symptoms of CVST. Official guidelines have been developed to aid in the diagnosis and management of this syndrome.

    Medical rationale similar to that of national regulators in several EU member states, so we can put paid to the asinine notion of those decisions being driven by politics and stupidity. This is how pharmacovigilance systems in modern, developed nations work.

    EMA briefing with new details on reported cases: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R44xKGOZ0kQ (haven't had time to properly review either briefing)

    It's a good day for science.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  9. #3279
    https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/lo...f-958f881dcb0c

    Wasn't all of Texas suppose to die because of the mask mandate being lifted?

  10. #3280
    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    Update from MHRA:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/m...ur-blood-clots

    JCVI advises use of other vaccines in healthy people under 30 (note that the press release above explicitly does not recommend age restrictions): https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2BU287

    New public advice re. headaches and possible symptoms of CVST. Official guidelines have been developed to aid in the diagnosis and management of this syndrome.

    Medical rationale similar to that of national regulators in several EU member states, so we can put paid to the asinine notion of those decisions being driven by politics and stupidity. This is how pharmacovigilance systems in modern, developed nations work.

    EMA briefing with new details on reported cases: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R44xKGOZ0kQ (haven't had time to properly review either briefing)

    It's a good day for science.
    This is how you do science yes, medical regulatory bodies reviewing the data and making rational decisions based on evidence.

    Not flap around like headless chickens with politicians overriding and second-guessing medical regulators. That was politics and stupidity.

    Sane agencies doing their job properly in a calm and measured transparent manner doesn't justify the stupidity that came before it.

    The idiotic stop/start and binning of vaccines and politicians overriding EMA/MHRA advice have led to thousands of unnecessary deaths. Because it was stupidly handled and political.

    Worth noting of course that the MHRAs decision is based in no small part on the fact that due to prior vaccinations etc the risk in the UK is very low now. We aren't in the midst of a third wave which changes the calculations.

    Hopefully some of the more moronic behaviour we've seen from some politicians elsewhere "only use this vaccine for under 65s" "no stop using it" "start using it" "no stop using it" "start using it for over 65s only" can learn from the EMA and MHRA on how to do this properly.

    Sadly they'll probably take it as justification for their idiocy instead and ignore the thousands or tens of thousands their incompetence has killed which the MHRA avoided.

    Across Europe 3500 people a day excess are dying, of which zero comes from the UK. That changes the risk profile significantly.
    Last edited by RandBlade; 04-07-2021 at 05:49 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  11. #3281
    Hell hath completely frozen over. After the calm and responsible press conference by the MHRA earlier today comes calm and responsible front pages from all of the papers. No idiocy across the board, even The S*n are being grown up about it.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  12. #3282
    Quote Originally Posted by Hazir View Post
    Well, the first invitation for vaccination in this house has just been delivered. For next Monday. I will have to wait longer.

    Just got my first Pfizer shot as a walk-in at the public vaccination site county health runs three days a week at the local university. Hating the power of suggestion as I look at the list of side-effects to be aware of.
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

  13. #3283
    Quote Originally Posted by LittleFuzzy View Post
    Hating the power of suggestion as I look at the list of side-effects to be aware of.
    Oof. I hadn't thought of that.

    Any medication purchased has side-effects listed, which even for the most everyday and benign of medications can seem scary. Yet with the silly scare stories around covid vaccinations, people will naturally zoom in on those listed side-effects and give them more prominence than they're due.
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    It's actually the original French billion, which is bi-million, which is a million to the power of 2. We adopted the word, and then they changed it, presumably as revenge for Crecy and Agincourt, and then the treasonous Americans adopted the new French usage and spread it all over the world. And now we have to use it.

    And that's Why I'm Voting Leave.

  14. #3284
    Indeed. Aspirin and the birth control pill for instance both have potentially more likely side effects. Yet the former is sold OTC and the latter is given to upto half of young adults without much of a murmur.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  15. #3285
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    In The Netherlands we're inching towards a complete stop on the use of the AZ vaccine.
    Congratulations America

  16. #3286
    I think Sir Humphrey would call that a "brave" decision when your vaccination rates are so low and deaths and hospitalisations are still occurring.

    Not a scientific balance of risks.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  17. #3287
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    I think Sir Humphrey would call that a "brave" decision when your vaccination rates are so low and deaths and hospitalisations are still occurring.

    Not a scientific balance of risks.
    Actually vaccination rate is getting better fast. Number of infections is going down as well. Can't understand why you would want to stop using the AZ vaccine in this situation still.
    Congratulations America

  18. #3288
    Well indeed, things are improving and the vaccine is working. Its worth noting April was always the point where the EU was supposed to start getting significant numbers of AZ and other vaccines. But it'd be premature to stop using a key vaccine now while the rates done (not the rates getting done) are still so low.

    Since the pandemic isn't over there the balance of risks is massively on the side of using the vaccines. Especially for older people who are less vulnerable to the very rare side effects and more vulnerable to Covid.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  19. #3289
    Senior Member Flixy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hazir View Post
    In The Netherlands we're inching towards a complete stop on the use of the AZ vaccine.
    Keep on keepin' the beat alive!

  20. #3290
    Quote Originally Posted by Timbuk2 View Post
    Oof. I hadn't thought of that.

    Any medication purchased has side-effects listed, which even for the most everyday and benign of medications can seem scary. Yet with the silly scare stories around covid vaccinations, people will naturally zoom in on those listed side-effects and give them more prominence than they're due.
    In this particular case, they were giving us the vaccine and then having us stay and sit for 15 minutes to self-observe for allergic-reaction type side effects. If you spend 15 minutes repeatedly cataloging your body for sensations of itchiness, dizziness, nausea, increased heart rate, etc, way too many of us are going to start giving ourselves those reactions psychosomatically.
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

  21. #3291
    Netherlands is probably moderate risk at the minute, so using the MHRA data this would be the risk ratios.


    If a block is done on this data, unless there's tangible other data, then I 100% agree with Flixy's emoji.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  22. #3292
    Quote Originally Posted by LittleFuzzy View Post
    In this particular case, they were giving us the vaccine and then having us stay and sit for 15 minutes to self-observe for allergic-reaction type side effects. If you spend 15 minutes repeatedly cataloging your body for sensations of itchiness, dizziness, nausea, increased heart rate, etc, way too many of us are going to start giving ourselves those reactions psychosomatically.
    Pfizer the wait is important for that because of the risk of anaphylactic shock.

    That probably doesn't occur psychosomatically, though the others certainly might.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  23. #3293
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hazir View Post
    In The Netherlands we're inching towards a complete stop on the use of the AZ vaccine.
    And it's no AZN for people under 60. No idea if I get vaccinated before summer.
    Congratulations America

  24. #3294
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Pfizer the wait is important for that because of the risk of anaphylactic shock.

    That probably doesn't occur psychosomatically, though the others certainly might.
    Stop inventing your own narrative to read instead of what I type. Are you going to will yourself into anaphylactic shock? No. Are you going to manage to give yourself some of the symptoms while sitting there for a period with nothing to do but try and catalog whether you have any of the symptoms? Some certainly will, myself among them, which is why I said "Hating the power of suggestion as I look at the list of side-effects to be aware of.[/quote] IN THE FIRST PLACE.
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

  25. #3295
    Ummm you've misunderstood what I was saying. I was agreeing with you and saying the same thing.

    The 15 minute rule is needed for Pfizer because of the risk of anaphylaxis. That won't occur psychosomatically, I said that too. I know I said probably but that's a turn of phrase. However the risk of anaphylaxis for Pfizer is real hence the 15 minutes.

    The others yes I completely agree there will be people who feel headaches or nauseous etc because the idea is put in their head and they're overthinking it. Which is why I said that you certainly might get the others psychosomatically. It's a shame you can't avoid the 15 minutes due to the anaphylaxis risk, but then that does leave people overthinking everything else.

    I don't see why you're objecting to me agreeing with you. I think you misunderstood that and took it the wrong way.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  26. #3296
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    I don't know what relevance it still has, but it appears that it has been negotiated that almost the entire production of the Halix plant will stay in the EU.
    Congratulations America

  27. #3297
    Quote Originally Posted by Hazir View Post
    I don't know what relevance it still has, but it appears that it has been negotiated that almost the entire production of the Halix plant will stay in the EU.
    Good news for many community-dwelling elderly I guess. Some of my 70-y-o patients have begun to get AZN now, rather than Pfizer and Moderna.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  28. #3298
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  29. #3299
    Writeup of the early Norwegian cases:

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2104882
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  30. #3300
    Conservative death-cult priests create new most favoured religion rule:

    https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinion...0a151_4g15.pdf

    Scroll down for Kagan's dissent. Roberts voted against the majority, but doesn't explain why. Because he's a coward.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

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