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Thread: covid-19

  1. #3541
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    You've identified one reason for why persuading a person who is hesitant to get vaccinated can be difficult: being rational and "unemotional" often does not help; it's difficult to allay their concerns with arguments. Purely anecdotally, my experience has been that most of the work of persuasion is social, personal, and emotional. One thing we can always do—quite easily—is to gently convey our own positive feelings of anticipation, trust, and relief, implicitly inviting them to share in it. Model positive vaccine feelings; anyone can do it and it takes no effort at all.
    The maddening thing is that she is aware of the fact that dying of covid-19 is the bigger risk. She read an article about a couple refusing to get vaccinated who then both died from covid-19. And she admits her fear of the vaccination isn't rational. But the conclusion still is that she doesn't get vaccinated. I mean, her own thought process logically should lead to vaccination. But it somehow ends in vaccination being framed as the bigger risk.
    Congratulations America

  2. #3542
    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    *reassuring, twinkle in eye* it's not gonna do that
    *astonished look on face* I have a degree in zoology which is basically biology and the information I found says blah blah blah...and then we die.
    .

  3. #3543
    A lot of people make dumb decisions for no sane reason, even when their own life is at stake. Some of them might be deterred from such stupidity if all the people they respected told them to do otherwise, but there's quite a lot of mixed messaging right now. Most people don't differentiate between the advice coming from an expert and advice coming from some health blog or Oprah.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  4. #3544
    Over 88% of British adults now have Covid antibodies (as per serological survey)
    81.9% of adults have been vaccinated
    59.7% of adults have been double-vaccinated.
    The UK has overtaken Israel in share of population vaccinated (one dose only, still a bit to go on second doses)
    Less than 1% of all deaths are being caused by Covid19
    7-day average death rate is 11, or 0.016 per 100k.

    And still this stupid lockdown is being extended.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  5. #3545
    Interesting. Two doses of vaccines are more effective against Delta than they were against Alpha, not less. Lower confidence interval too.



    96% VE for Pfizer, 92% for AZ.

    Probably because vaccine protection builds over time so it being later has had that effect, people have had longer to build their immunity. Good news though.

    Stunning numbers for one dose too.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  6. #3546
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Interesting. Two doses of vaccines are more effective against Delta than they were against Alpha, not less. Lower confidence interval too.

    96% VE for Pfizer, 92% for AZ.

    Probably because vaccine protection builds over time so it being later has had that effect, people have had longer to build their immunity. Good news though.

    Stunning numbers for one dose too.
    Those are likely not meaningful or significant differences. I would caution about claiming 'more' efficacy without data that actually shows superiority.
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  7. #3547
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    The Netherlands has removed the Janssen* vaccine from its regular vaccination program. Yet, the Janssen vaccine is considered safe enough to be used on 'informed consent', which is exactly how the 200k doses that are in store will be put to use. As of today it's possible for people to make an appointment to be vaccinated with the Janssen vaccine. For them that means they count as fully vaccinated after only one shot. 200k injections is about 1 days worth of work for the system so I guess the entire batch will be gone within a week. The call center has problems keeping up with demand as we speak.

    *Janssen is a subsidiary of Johnson and Johnson.
    Congratulations America

  8. #3548
    Quote Originally Posted by Hazir View Post
    The Netherlands has removed the Janssen* vaccine from its regular vaccination program. Yet, the Janssen vaccine is considered safe enough to be used on 'informed consent', which is exactly how the 200k doses that are in store will be put to use. As of today it's possible for people to make an appointment to be vaccinated with the Janssen vaccine. For them that means they count as fully vaccinated after only one shot. 200k injections is about 1 days worth of work for the system so I guess the entire batch will be gone within a week. The call center has problems keeping up with demand as we speak.

    *Janssen is a subsidiary of Johnson and Johnson.
    What was the reason for removal?
    Over here it is used almost exclusively in cases where it is considered impossible to reasonably ensure administration of two doses (think homeless shelters, etc). I hadn't heard anything regarding any issues with the J&J vaccine, and faulty as our system may be, people in charge seem to pick up on information regarding any perceived safety concerns rather rapidly, at least that was the case with the whole AZN vaccine thing a while back.
    It would be nice if we could get to a place where our community didn’t need a constant stream of fresh corpses to remind it how to behave.

    "Science and faith are fundamentally incompatible, and for precisely the same reason that irrationality and rationality are incompatible. They are different forms of inquiry, with only one, science, equipped to find real truth. And while they may have a dialogue, it's not a constructive one. Science helps religion only by disproving its claims, while religion has nothing to add to science." - J.A.Coyne

  9. #3549
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    Quote Originally Posted by BalticSailor View Post
    What was the reason for removal?
    Over here it is used almost exclusively in cases where it is considered impossible to reasonably ensure administration of two doses (think homeless shelters, etc). I hadn't heard anything regarding any issues with the J&J vaccine, and faulty as our system may be, people in charge seem to pick up on information regarding any perceived safety concerns rather rapidly, at least that was the case with the whole AZN vaccine thing a while back.
    There were two reasons for removal; an almost insignificant number of cases with severe side effects combined with an ample supply of the Pfizer vaccine. The interesting diffence with the AZN vaccine is that the Janssen vaccine (in theory) will be given to all age groups. Whereas the AZN is only still given as a second injection and then alone to people over 60.

    The number of cases with severe side effects were so low that statistically it should be entirely possible that none of the 200k people who get the Janssen vaccine now will be just ok.
    Congratulations America

  10. #3550
    Hazir, did your sister consult with her physician? If so, what was their recommendation? If not, why not?

    <It's purely anecdotal, but I wonder if some doctors hesitate to give their sick or compromised patients the go-ahead to get vaccinated, because they're worried about liability law suits if there's a bad outcome. On the flip side, it seems like lots of patients aren't even asking their doctors for their medical opinion.>

  11. #3551
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    Quote Originally Posted by GGT View Post
    Hazir, did your sister consult with her physician? If so, what was their recommendation? If not, why not?

    <It's purely anecdotal, but I wonder if some doctors hesitate to give their sick or compromised patients the go-ahead to get vaccinated, because they're worried about liability law suits if there's a bad outcome. On the flip side, it seems like lots of patients aren't even asking their doctors for their medical opinion.>
    Yes, and he told her to get vaccinated. The risks that exist have no significance compared to the risk of an infection. If she contracts covid-19, it would take several medical miracles to survive.
    Congratulations America

  12. #3552
    Why do you suppose she ignored her doctor's advice?

  13. #3553
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    Quote Originally Posted by GGT View Post
    Why do you suppose she ignored her doctor's advice?
    Irrational and unspecified fear of the vaccine.
    Congratulations America

  14. #3554
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    The Netherlands : From Friday everyone over 12 can make an appointment to get vaccinated. A number of walk in (mobile) vaccination centers are operational now.

    In about a week or two every adult person who wants to be vaccinated can have had at least one shot.
    Congratulations America

  15. #3555
    That's great news Hazir.

    I forgot to say here, I got my second AZ jab over the weekend.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  16. #3556
    This is an absolutely fantastic chart.

    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/stat...189079044?s=20
    First deaths without cases, then cases and deaths, now cases without deaths. First no testing and no vaccines, then testing and no vaccines, now testing and vaccines
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  17. #3557
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Charts to for the farcical Warwick predictions to SAGE versus what's happening. Early days but already not lining up with their predictions.
    Two weeks later and as was immediately obvious the SAGE modelling was farcical bullshit.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  18. #3558
    Who, exactly, are the zero covid cultist zealots? I'm not sure I know anyone with any real influence or power demanding zero covid. Have I missed something?

  19. #3559
    Some on SAGE and all of the Orwellian named "Independent SAGE".

    Some of these lunatics have been much loved by Sky. Devi Sridhar was one but she recently abandoned the idea and so isn't getting booked as much.

    Christina Pagel and Deepti Gurdasani are two of the worst Cultists.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  20. #3560
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Two weeks later and as was immediately obvious the SAGE modelling was farcical bullshit.
    I'mma go ahead and say, even though it's not resulting in a high death total given a fairly effective vaccination program, the rapidly rising infection rate your graph shows is still a significant problem and probably indicates your position is a bad one. Infections like that still means a rapidly propagating (and hence mutating) virus which undermines and eventually eliminates the effectiveness of the vaccination program.
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

  21. #3561
    I completely disagree. Either we remain under lockdown restrictions forever, which is farcical and unliveable, or we learn to live with the virus in which case the virus needs to burn itself out, or learnt to be lived with.

    The vaccine rollout is done effectively, the very few hospitalisations that are occuring are almost entirely concentrated within the tiny minority who have refused the vaccine. What are we supposed to do - keep restrictions in place forever to protect antivaxxers?

    We're pretty close to herd immunity and the virus is just filling in the gaps where people haven't taken the vaccine, or aren't eligible for it (children). After that it will be over and burnt out as the virus smashes into a wall of vaccine-created herd immunity once it runs out of others to infect.

    With respect the flaw in your logic is that there isn't an infinite pool of people for the virus to infect, so no it won't eventually eliminate the effectiveness since the virus will be burnt out before that happens.

    If the virus isn't causing deaths or hospitalisations eventually we need to stop testing and panicking over this and just live with it like we do the flu and if it spreads, it spreads.

    ******

    Another way of looking at it is that if a novel virus had arrived in normal circumstances with our post-vaccine infectiousness, hospitalisations and deaths as the default unvaccinated rate would we have ever locked down in the first place? No, we wouldn't. It would have just been considered like the flu and not been this pandemic. Actually fewer people are dying from this than the flu, post-vaccination this disease is less deadly than the flu. If the link between cases and hospitalisations/deaths has been broken then its time to stop worrying about cases.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  22. #3562
    Ah but you see RB that would mean taking away power from the government to run people's lives. Gotta keep the fear turned up as high as can be.

  23. #3563
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    I completely disagree. Either we remain under lockdown restrictions forever, which is farcical and unliveable, or we learn to live with the virus in which case the virus needs to burn itself out, or learnt to be lived with.

    The vaccine rollout is done effectively, the very few hospitalisations that are occuring are almost entirely concentrated within the tiny minority who have refused the vaccine. What are we supposed to do - keep restrictions in place forever to protect antivaxxers?

    We're pretty close to herd immunity
    That's not what those recent infection numbers indicate. Am I saying you should be in lockdown forever? No. But you're not exactly in a real lockdown now anyway, are you? You've got a few restrictions still. Should they continue? Maybe, maybe not. If they should continue, it ought to be until you DO actually reach a herd-immunity status, or until the pandemic is brought under control elsewhere (looks at India). What is clearly and certainly NOT the case is your constant trumpeting that you have the virus licked and everything is absolutely normal and ok. Because if that were actually the case, you would not be seeing the infection spike your own sources reference.
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

  24. #3564
    Quote Originally Posted by LittleFuzzy View Post
    That's not what those recent infection numbers indicate. Am I saying you should be in lockdown forever? No. But you're not exactly in a real lockdown now anyway, are you? You've got a few restrictions still. Should they continue? Maybe, maybe not. If they should continue, it ought to be until you DO actually reach a herd-immunity status, or until the pandemic is brought under control elsewhere (looks at India). What is clearly and certainly NOT the case is your constant trumpeting that you have the virus licked and everything is absolutely normal and ok. Because if that were actually the case, you would not be seeing the infection spike your own sources reference.
    Not at all. There is no spike in hospitalisations or deaths which is all that matters. If the virus post-vaccine is reduced to essentially a common cold it doesn't matter how much the infection "spikes". And the data shows that ~90% of all adults in the UK now have antibodies against Covid either from vaccines or Covid so absolutely it is close to herd immunity and just filling in the gaps now.

    Its irritating that the earth was salted by idiots like Trump and Toby Young etc saying absolute claptrap last year which is true now. Last year for both spikes if we didn't do the tests then the cases could be seen in deaths and hospitalisations anyway (see the first wave) so the suggestion that there'd be fewer cases if we did fewer tests was bloody stupid then. But its true now, we're doing a million tests per day and we're finding a few cases in that which aren't overloading the NHS or seeing people die. So frigging what?

    Its worth noting that the UK has for some reason ramped up testing to the n-th degree while other countries are ceasing to do them. The UK's testing rate is an order of magnitude more than other nations and going up while the testing rate in other nations is a fraction in comparison and going down.

    The UK is conducting more than twice as many tests per case found than the USA is, but because we're doing over 11x the tests per capita than the USA is, the UK is finding more cases. Does that mean the virus is more prevalent in the UK, or not? We don't know, but nor does it matter. In the USA there's probably plenty of cases spreading too - but since tests aren't happening, deaths aren't happening and hospitalisations aren't happening then its not being detected.

    In the only ways that matters which is excess deaths and the risk of the NHS being overwhelmed the virus is completely licked and the only thing that is not normal is the restrictions on civil liberties; that is clear from the data.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  25. #3565
    People don't only die from Covid, they also get various long term health issues. Those also should be in consideration.
    I could have had class. I could have been a contender.
    I could have been somebody. Instead of a bum
    Which is what I am

    I aim at the stars
    But sometimes I hit London

  26. #3566
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  27. #3567
    Quote Originally Posted by Ziggy Stardust View Post
    People don't only die from Covid, they also get various long term health issues. Those also should be in consideration.
    The government has the option of pursuing a very simple and effective strategy for dealing with PASC/long covid: not diagnose, not support, deny disability and rehab.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  28. #3568
    Quote Originally Posted by Ziggy Stardust View Post
    People don't only die from Covid, they also get various long term health issues. Those also should be in consideration.
    Yes people don't only die from Covid, they die from a myriad of diseases. Covid has for months provided <1% of all deaths in this country.

    If people have a health issue, the NHS is there to serve them. We are not here to serve the NHS.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  29. #3569
    A final chart for now and this one is interesting too. Cases versus hospital occupancy - note that there's no scaling necessary on this since hospital occupancy scaled with cases in the second wave (obviously above in first wave due to lack of testing). Hospital occupancy data has been lagged by a week to take into account of the gap between cases and hospitalisations.


    The link between cases and hospitalisations, let alone deaths, has been utterly broken. The Warwick etc SAGE SPI-M modelling was completely broken and wrong.

    Time to completely let rip and if some antivaxxers get sick and die, then some antivaxxers get sick and die. They've made their choice, but for everyone else this virus is no longer what it was.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  30. #3570
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    There is no spike in hospitalisations or deaths which is all that matters.
    This is perhaps the dumbest take on public health this board has seen yet.
    "In a field where an overlooked bug could cost millions, you want people who will speak their minds, even if they’re sometimes obnoxious about it."

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