Because it's been impossible to contain this and it keeps coming in from overseas. Hence why there's now a lockdown forecast to last until the Summer.
The scientists had a lockdown as part of their plan when the time is right, which it is now.
Today in the UK is Mother's Day and it's effectively been cancelled.
Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer
You just asked Lewk (in the other thread about pandemics) if he was on crack. What are you smoking?
What I wrote was the answer to your question. Don't ask a question it you don't want an answer.
But your answer was wrong. The reason the virus hasn't been contained in the UK is because you're spreading it among your own population (by not shutting down schools, shops, pubs earlier). It's not coming from "overseas" -- it's being spread within and between your communities. What you're seeing now has a lag time of at least 2-3 weeks.
You do know what the word "and" means don't you? I put the failure of containment as the first answer and it repeatedly coming in from overseas as the secondary answer.
There's no evidence a premature shutdown would have been more successful. You need to bring people along too, premature shutdowns can make the situation worse.
You're talking about the disruption in timing -- but viruses don't work that way. Sorry, but I don't agree that global pandemic policy should worry about parents or businesses getting things in order, making adjustments, looking for exemptions, or whatever. That just wastes time that viruses WILL exploit.
There's also a weird paradox regarding what humans think they can cure vs what they cause. Maybe that's a topic for another thread with more "philosophic" leanings....
All I can say is that I'm glad to have my smallpox vaccination scar. I only wish my kids had the same. Because if a virus like covid-19 can take down entire healthcare systems (and economies), it's not crazy to imagine that smallpox might be used as a cheap and easy *and fast working* biological weapon.
Just to be clear, schools are NOT closed in England. My children's school has around 200 of the 500 children still attending tomorrow.
Closure is not the policy.
Happy Mother's Day?
Hong Kong did a good job <containing> the virus, but now they're dealing with new infections as they loosen policy:
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/...t-new-covid-19
I think the current lock-down is going to be sustainable for like 3 months tops, so we'd better hope someone's come up with something by then.
When the sky above us fell
We descended into hell
Into kingdom come
I'm thinking I should throw caution to the wind, and just ignore all the "self-distancing" prescriptions. I'm over 60 years old with some lung disease, and don't really want to live to 100 anyway. At this point I'm worth more dead than alive; at least my kids might survive on my "estate" when they can't find jobs in the new Depression. Wouldn't make sense to spend money extending my life.
Yesterday a hospice nurse knocked on my door. She had the wrong apartment, but it got me thinking.....
Last edited by GGT; 03-22-2020 at 11:26 AM.
Indeed, the message is still not that clear. My sister's school is formally closed except for key-worker kids.
The schools in my neighbourhood are all formally opening tomorrow though, even though apparently most of the kids are not attending - again just key-worker kids and other exceptions are attending from what I've managed to gather from neighbours.
~
Meanwhile, a large portion of the idiotic UK population is treating this all as one big holiday ... the weather has changed and it's now lovely out.
In Scotland too many pubs are refusing to shut despite the clear government order.
This country is going to have a huge spike.
Good! Every school should be open with as few children as they need to take, that's why ours aren't going in even though they could.
The worst idea possible would be to shut most of the schools, putting all the kids into just one of them, then resulting in a virus going through that school taking out all the key workers at once!
Gee what a shock that telling people they don't have to go to work or take kids to school leads to people having fun.Meanwhile, a large portion of the idiotic UK population is treating this all as one big holiday ... the weather has changed and it's now lovely out.
In Scotland too many pubs are refusing to shut despite the clear government order.
This country is going to have a huge spike.
This is why you educate the populace first and make sane arrangements first THEN do the closures. It would have been so much worse had we just shut things unplanned weeks ago.
The idea of the shutdown in my state of California being even a quarter long is absolutely terrifying, Steely.
Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"
I hear you.
When the sky above us fell
We descended into hell
Into kingdom come
Yes but that's the reality we're at. It will likely be at least that long.
What would have been so much worse? The spread of the virus? Its containment?
It is not relevant; no politician, given the choice, will opt for the atlernative that writes him/her into the historybooks as the person who decided to let hundreds of thousands, in the case of the US millions, die. As you must have noticed, even Republicans vote for a social safety net rather than be labeled mass murderers. Because that will happen to politicians who do not choose to save as many lives as is humanly possible.
There are some politicians who don't even try, but they have the excuse of their country not having the option of sacrificing some of the wealth of the majoriy for the health of a minority. For the simple reason that the majority hasn't got anything to spare either.
P.S. it's very possible Angela Merkel was infected by her physician.
Congratulations America
Yes and yes, along with the economic consequences too.
"In a field where an overlooked bug could cost millions, you want people who will speak their minds, even if they’re sometimes obnoxious about it."
Meanwhile, the President of Israel is reading wholesome bedtime stories to the country's children who are stuck at home:
The PM may be a dirtbag, but Rivlin has some class.
"When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)
That is irrelevant; it is evident the testing policy employed by the UK was not sufficient to enable containment. Indeed, govt. indicated that it was not even pursuing containment, but the exact opposite goal - deliberate facilitation of community transmission. There's no need to be nice to the govt. and give credit for well-intentioned but inadequate half-measures. You don't get partial credit for taking a course of action that predictably makes things worse. I'm not trying to mock your govt, I'm trying to explain that they were wrong, and they themselves know they were wrong.
You are also wrong or at least misguided. Early on in this thread, towards the end of February, the UK was testing hundreds a day, rising to about a thousand and staying between 1-2 thousand a day until the middle of March, by which point it had become obvious the strategy chosen by your govt. was not fit for purpose.
The fact that the strategy your govt. had chosen was wrong was suspected by many experts the moment it became public knowledge, and, shortly afterwards, it was confirmed that the strategy chosen was a dangerously inadequate one that had been based on incorrect assumptions and flawed (or no) modeling. The govt. chose a strategy that effectively facilitated community transmission, guaranteeing an out-of-control epidemic that will now necessitate more severe and more protracted restrictions (worse the longer they drag their feet).
This is absurdly conspiratorial, and it is also nonsensical. You do not in fact know when the "outbreak began" in any place; you can only make an educated guess about when people began dying because of it. The tracker is based on the best available data, and it isn't being manipulated to make the UK look bad - believing this is borderline MAGA kookery and it is - or at least should be - beneath you. Get a grip.As a result our death rate and case rate is on a much lower trajectory than Italy or other nations despite the FTs dodgy and misleading graph where they keep restarting the data to overlay the UK onto Italy. The outbreak began in Italy and in the UK on the same day.
This is nonsensical. You do not know what day the outbreak began in any country - nobody does. You can only have a fair idea of when people began to die due to SARS-CoV-2 infections or complications thereof. That is why they're comparing mortality data - it's the only reasonably reliable way to compare the development of the epidemics in different countries with disparate testing policies.
Again, this is conspiratorial nonsense. There are two dozen countries on the cases tracker; it's not a conspiracy against the UK but a reasonable way to give a quick overview of one aspect of the epidemic.Hence why a week ago they had another dodgy graphic showing cases overlaid from case 100 onwards trying to force that on an exponential scale to show the same thing but then the data diverged so they switched.
It's also not the time for delusional conspiracy theories about how the FT and everyone else is out to get you during a likely devastating global pandemic.This isn't the time for clickbait dodgy graphs.
No, and now.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
The government never had a policy of facilitating community transmission. The policy publicly stated was Stage 1 Containment, Stage 2 Delay, when they switched to Delay they said it wasn't possible to contain it not that they didn't want to do so. Oh and the government isn't making the decisions in a vaccuum - this is a cross-party cross-government effort led by scientists and COBR. COBR is not the British government, it is the devolved administrations like SNP and chief scientists too.
Then why isn't the FT using the tracker it was a week ago with a similar garbage overlay that suddenly was dropped when it no longer showed what they were claiming? Had they chosen a tracker and stuck with it rather than chopping and changing it that would have been better. Either way we do have evidence when the "outbreak began" in respective countries, when they had the first cases. Italy had its first recorded cases on 31/1/20 and the UK had its first recorded cases on 31/1/20. They're playing with the data, finding a way that shows it is the same then running with that until reality shows its not. Then playing with the new data, finding a new way to show it is the same prior to reality again showing it is not.This is absurdly conspiratorial, and it is also nonsensical. You do not in fact know when the "outbreak began" in any place; you can only make an educated guess about when people began dying because of it. The tracker is based on the best available data, and it isn't being manipulated to make the UK look bad - believing this is borderline MAGA kookery and it is - or at least should be - beneath you. Get a grip.
The FT's prior overlay tracker put "day zero" as 100 recorded cases and showed the UK and others were tracking Italy from day zero of 100 cases to date. They coined the tracker with the lines matching and showed it for a few days until the lines diverged and then suddenly they're not that interested in that one. Based on that prior tracker they were using then we would now be at 12,462 cases and 827 deaths by now - more than double where we really are for both.
The new tracker is also not working either. Yesterday the UK was on 233 deaths (coincidentally what Italy was on 7/3) - today's increase was half that of Italy's on 8/3.
Its not a conspiracy you're right, I never said it was. Its editorial clickbait nonsense. Odd that I'd think a UK newspaper might be UK-biased in its editorial slant, I wonder why that is?Again, this is conspiratorial nonsense. There are two dozen countries on the cases tracker; it's not a conspiracy against the UK but a reasonable way to give a quick overview of one aspect of the epidemic.
Yes and yes.No, and now.
Plot a TRUE graph from day zero being 31/1/20 when the outbreak began in both countries on the exact same day and the reactions of the two countries are very different and I'd rather be where we are than where they are.
You haven't been to SF? Solving three issues wouldn't help in this case though, so I was wrong to jump on them.
***
Am I the only one who thinks this would be better solved by isolating at risk people at gunpoint? I can't help but think in a few weeks the idiots partying on Florida beaches will merely be the first signs of an inter-generational war.
The boomers have been waging war on the younger generations since about forever.
"In a field where an overlooked bug could cost millions, you want people who will speak their minds, even if they’re sometimes obnoxious about it."
Economic questions aside. This is a genuine question as I dont understand this line of thinking. How is a complete shutdown, rigorously enforced, going to allow the virus to spread more quickly and more widely than the current UK situation, where everybody is gathering together in their hundreds of thousands in parks and on beaches?
Because we aren't China. Who do you propose rigorously enforces it and on how much notice?
A complete shutdown can't be rigorously enforced overnight and its going to take time to mobilise the police and potentially the military required to enforce it - and time to notify the public it is happening. So what happens is that word a lockdown is coming leaks (or is even announced) and as a result people panic and move about at a much greater rate than they would have otherwise. This was seen in Italy, Spain and France and every other European nation to try it too. Having people running around in mass mobs like headless chickens or seeking to flee from the city into the countryside or other things like that before the lockdown comes in leads to more spread of the virus not less. Especially if you haven't taken people along with you and try and implement this on day one without any notice
Everybody is not gathering together in parks and on beaches. Did you today? We stayed at home. The current UK situation is fewer infections and fewer deaths than most other comparable nations and far fewer social gatherings than would normally happen today. Today was both Mothers Day and the first sunny day of Spring (at least here) - I'd guess most years there'd be 40 million plus going out, the majority of the nation. Hundreds of thousands going out is roughly a 99% reduction in social gatherings than what we'd normally see. Not a bad start.
Suppression measures - such as shutting down schools and banning large gatherings etc - are political decisions. At a time when Whitty was saying you'd moved to prioritizing delay, the govt. had not begun to implement measures completely essential to achieving that goal - and is, indeed, still not implementing those measures.
What you're saying here is completely wrong and I'm surprised you would make so silly a mistake. The first recorded confirmed case is not the same as the first case, nor is it a reasonable date for the start of an outbreak. When the UK and Italy resp. found their first confirmed case, they had no way of knowing whether widespread community transmission was already occurring. They had no way of knowing whether they had just found the first patient, the 10th patient, the 100th patient, the 1000th patient etc. The vast majority of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 are asymptomatic or experience mild symptoms for most of (or the entire) duration of their illness, and consequently do not get tested in most countries; most of the remainder will, early on in the epidemic, believe they've gotten a particularly bad cold or even the flu, and they will also not show up in official stats. As a result, you cannot know when the outbreak began in any given country. You are literally the only person I have come across who believes this weird nonsense.Either way we do have evidence when the "outbreak began" in respective countries, when they had the first cases. Italy had its first recorded cases on 31/1/20 and the UK had its first recorded cases on 31/1/20. They're playing with the data, finding a way that shows it is the same then running with that until reality shows its not. Then playing with the new data, finding a new way to show it is the same prior to reality again showing it is not.
[...]
Plot a TRUE graph from day zero being 31/1/20 when the outbreak began in both countries on the exact same day
I recall just a few days ago you were going on about something you believed someone had said, and then it turned out you were completely wrong about what they had said and when, and had missed the point entirely. I would therefore like you to provide links with clear information so that it's easier to understand what you're on about. Both the mortality tracker (deaths by days since 10th death) and the case tracker (confirmed cases by days since 100th confirmed case) are readily viewable on their covid19 resource page.Then why isn't the FT using the tracker it was a week ago with a similar garbage overlay that suddenly was dropped when it no longer showed what they were claiming? Had they chosen a tracker and stuck with it rather than chopping and changing it that would have been better.
[...]
The FT's prior overlay tracker put "day zero" as 100 recorded cases and showed the UK and others were tracking Italy from day zero of 100 cases to date. They coined the tracker with the lines matching and showed it for a few days until the lines diverged and then suddenly they're not that interested in that one.
The UK's testing policy has changed over the course of the epidemic, and the vast majority of cases will never be confirmed by testing. The graph of tests reflects testing policy, not actual number of people with covid.Based on that prior tracker they were using then we would now be at 12,462 cases and 827 deaths by now - more than double where we really are for both.
When you say something like the tracker isn't "working", it makes you sound like a conspiracy theorist. The purpose of the tracker is track and compare covid19 deaths in various countries; if it's showing covid19 deaths over time in different countries, it's working.The new tracker is also not working either. Yesterday the UK was on 233 deaths (coincidentally what Italy was on 7/3) - today's increase was half that of Italy's on 8/3.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
If you think again you know it's not what you want.
Congratulations America
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