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Thread: covid-19

  1. #601
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    The real world facts match my beliefs. Nations that prematurely shut down schools without thinking through the consequences spread the virus far and wide. Nations that smartly closed down schools after shutting down workplaces have done better. We're in the latter group.

    You need to ask yourself what the purpose of shutting down schools is. If its to ensure children stay at home then you need to shut down parents workplaces first. If its to make it look like you're doing something then that isn't scientific.
    The purpose is to stop the spread of a *novel* virus that no human being has ever seen, or has immunity to, but is deadlier than seasonal flu, for which there's no vaccine or therapeutic regimen, but no one knows with certainty how it's spread within human communities. I'm fine with shutting schools. And restaurants and bars. And even airports and cruise ships.

    The biggest *carriers* were the millions of people traveling on planes, trains and cruise ships crossing between countries (and state lines), who ended up at music venues, amusement parks, pubs, bars, restaurants and tourist traps. The UK doesn't have special immunity.

    If you have evidence that the UK has fared better than "other nations", please share. So far your PM, Health Secretary, and Prince (first in line for the throne) have all tested positive for covid-19. Dig your way out of that....

  2. #602
    Quote Originally Posted by GGT View Post
    The purpose is to stop the spread of a *novel* virus that no human being has ever seen, or has immunity to, but is deadlier than seasonal flu, for which there's no vaccine or therapeutic regimen, but no one knows with certainty how it's spread within human communities. I'm fine with shutting schools. And restaurants and bars. And even airports and cruise ships.

    The biggest *carriers* were the millions of people traveling on planes, trains and cruise ships crossing between countries (and state lines), who ended up at music venues, amusement parks, pubs, bars, restaurants and tourist traps. That includes community transmission. The UK doesn't have special immunity.
    Exactly my point. The purpose is to stop its spread - to do that you need people to stay at home, not to send children to stay with their grandparents for their parents go to work, infecting the grandparents who are vulnerable to the virus.

    Adults are and were the big carriers and the elderly are the most vulnerable. So shutting down schools is helpful so long as you do precautions FIRST.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  3. #603
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    You're still carrying the water for your Dear Leader? Pathetic.
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  4. #604
    No.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  5. #605
    Interesting chart. Freaky how much nations have more than China did on a per capita basis. America catching up fast.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  6. #606
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Why? Your procurement process is behind ours. Procurement options for ventilators were it seems received by the EU yesterday and are being reviewed now. UK procurement options were already received and reviewed and orders have already been placed.

    There's a time and a place for bureaucracy to drive down prices through collective purchasing. This isn't it, time is of the essence and our orders are in progress already.
    This would be super persuasive if England's first response to this news breaking hadn't been to come up with extremely poor excuses for why they messed up

    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    The real world facts match my beliefs. Nations that prematurely shut down schools without thinking through the consequences spread the virus far and wide. Nations that smartly closed down schools after shutting down workplaces have done better. We're in the latter group. I never said shutting down schools shouldn't happen, I gave my concerns with shutting down schools (that not-at-risk children would be sent to highly-at-risk grandparents first and foremost) and those concerns were dealt with. Italy didn't deal with those concerns they just shut the schools and the result was a catastrophe.
    Mate, look, you keep saying this, but it continues to be a load of horseshit. Wrt your comparisons to Italy, Italy desperately implemented suppression measures at a point when its epidemic was already out of control; the UK had the option to implement suppression measures at a much earlier stage

    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    You need to ask yourself what the purpose of shutting down schools is. If its to ensure children stay at home then you need to shut down parents workplaces first. If its to make it look like you're doing something then that isn't scientific.

    Brexit's got nothing to do with it, science and intelligence does. There is no scientific or intelligent reason to send the children of key workers to be looked after by their very vulnerable grandparents or great grandparents. That way leads to disaster. [...]

    Exactly my point. The purpose is to stop its spread - to do that you need people to stay at home, not to send children to stay with their grandparents for their parents go to work, infecting the grandparents who are vulnerable to the virus.

    Adults are and were the big carriers and the elderly are the most vulnerable. So shutting down schools is helpful so long as you do precautions FIRST.
    This is a subcategory of false dilemma that I'm gonna label "stupid dilemma". You have literally presented the solution to the apparent dilemma in your formulation of it, and it is so obvious that both you and your govt. should be ashamed for not seeing it. The solution to the "dilemma" is to swiftly implement policies that enable the shutdown of major non-essential workplaces, accompanied by an almost-simultaneous shutdown of schools. That could and should have been done weeks ago, when you still had some hope of containing the epidemic.

    Name one western country that prematurely shut down schools which is coping better and explain why.
    Your weaselly phrasing notwithstanding: Germany, Denmark, Norway, Finland, large parts of Canada all shut down schools early or mid-March. SK, a free, democratic and developed nation that was able to quickly contain its own epidemic - initially the largest one outside China - extended their school vacations. The "why" is simple. In responding to an epidemic of this kind, a govt. has, in the early stages, a choice between pursuing a strategy of mitigation or pursuing a strategy of suppression; govts that pursued mitigation in the early stages ended up with uncontrolled epidemics that have proven much more difficult to deal with than epidemics in countries where the govt. swiftly embraced a strategy of suppression.

    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Interesting chart. Freaky how much nations have more than China did on a per capita basis. America catching up fast.

    There's nothing freaky about it. Reliability of official data notwithstanding, China implemented extremely severe suppression measures fairly quickly.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  7. #607
    Speaking directly to the servile cretin demographic:

    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  8. #608
    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    This would be super persuasive if England's first response to this news breaking hadn't been to come up with extremely poor excuses for why they messed up
    That's assuming we messed up.

    Seems to me to be scrambling to find a face-saving way of not saying "no thanks, they're produced in this country and we've ensured we'll get them first so why should we join your later group"? Given the French were just lambasted for a similar stunt with PPE.
    Mate, look, you keep saying this, but it continues to be a load of horseshit. Wrt your comparisons to Italy, Italy desperately implemented suppression measures at a point when its epidemic was already out of control; the UK had the option to implement suppression measures at a much earlier stage
    The UK has implemented suppression measures at a much earlier stage. And its done so smartly.
    This is a subcategory of false dilemma that I'm gonna label "stupid dilemma". You have literally presented the solution to the apparent dilemma in your formulation of it, and it is so obvious that both you and your govt. should be ashamed for not seeing it. The solution to the "dilemma" is to swiftly implement policies that enable the shutdown of major non-essential workplaces, accompanied by an almost-simultaneous shutdown of schools. That could and should have been done weeks ago, when you still had some hope of containing the epidemic.
    They have swiftly done that. In a matter of weeks they've shut down workplaces, put in a scheme whereby the government will pay 80% of furloughed employees wages to ensure they'll stay at home, and then shut down schools. Rather than shutting down schools first then realising people still have bills to pay and oh shit they need to work, lets sort something out.
    Your weaselly phrasing notwithstanding: Germany, Denmark, Norway, Finland, large parts of Canada all shut down schools early or mid-March. SK, a free, democratic and developed nation that was able to quickly contain its own epidemic - initially the largest one outside China - extended their school vacations. The "why" is simple. In responding to an epidemic of this kind, a govt. has, in the early stages, a choice between pursuing a strategy of mitigation or pursuing a strategy of suppression; govts that pursued mitigation in the early stages ended up with uncontrolled epidemics that have proven much more difficult to deal with than epidemics in countries where the govt. swiftly embraced a strategy of suppression.
    SK went down a different route of tracking and tracing combined with an Orwellian surveillance state that even we don't have, pinpointing cases with mobile phone data etc.

    Its hard to compare stats between countries but of the nations you named Germany, Denmark, Norway and SK all have more confirmed COVID cases per capita than we do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  9. #609
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    That's assuming we messed up.

    Seems to me to be scrambling to find a face-saving way of not saying "no thanks, they're produced in this country and we've ensured we'll get them first so why should we join your later group"? Given the French were just lambasted for a similar stunt with PPE.
    Portraying your own govt. as idiots is not a great way to save face.

    The UK has implemented suppression measures at a much earlier stage. And its done so smartly.
    They have swiftly done that.
    This is borderline Orwellian. The UK deliberately pursued a strategy of half-assed mitigation during the critical stage of the epidemic when suppression may have been effective; it was then forced to attempt suppression, which it again did in a half-assed manner, yet again failing to contain the epidemic.

    In a matter of weeks
    Too. Slow.

    SK went down a different route of tracking and tracing combined with an Orwellian surveillance state that even we don't have, pinpointing cases with mobile phone data etc.

    Its hard to compare stats between countries but of the nations you named Germany, Denmark, Norway and SK all have more confirmed COVID cases per capita than we do.
    It's like you think you're a smarter Lewkowski, but what you do not realize is that we know the UK's testing policy has been more restrictive than the policies of other countries - esp. Germany's - and, more importantly, that the UK has more covid19 deaths per capita than those other countries.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  10. #610
    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    This is borderline Orwellian. The UK deliberately pursued a strategy of half-assed mitigation during the critical stage of the epidemic when suppression may have been effective; it was then forced to attempt suppression, which it again did in a half-assed manner, yet again failing to contain the epidemic.
    This is bollocks. Mitigation is stage 4 of the government's plan and has never been reached. It attempted containment then went on to suppression.
    It's like you think you're a smarter Lewkowski, but what you do not realize is that we know the UK's testing policy has been more restrictive than the policies of other countries - esp. Germany's - and, more importantly, that the UK has more covid19 deaths per capita than those other countries.
    Regarding deaths: Barely, they're all at a very low base currently and deaths rose considerably faster in Germany than the UK today.

    Regarding tests the UK had one of the highest per capita testing rates in the world, though yes Germany's is different the other European nations you named were not.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  11. #611
    Regarding deaths: Barely, they're all at a very low base currently and deaths rose considerably faster in Germany than the UK today.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Sorted by new death's today.
    When the sky above us fell
    We descended into hell
    Into kingdom come

  12. #612
    My apologies, I must have misread the table. Its late, goodnight.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  13. #613
    Don't apologize to me, apologize to the corona virus.
    When the sky above us fell
    We descended into hell
    Into kingdom come

  14. #614
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    This is bollocks. Mitigation is stage 4 of the government's plan and has never been reached. It attempted containment then went on to suppression.
    Here we go again. Slapping a label that says "this isn't cocaine" on a bag of cocaine doesn't magically transform the contents of the bag. The govt's initial plan - the one that was criticized earlier in this thread - cannot be fairly characterized as an attempt at containment or suppression; it had all the features of a half-assed attempt at mitigation, which is where you were inevitably going to end up - as, indeed, you have.

    Regarding deaths: Barely, they're all at a very low base currently and deaths rose considerably faster in Germany than the UK today.
    Well that's just plain wrong.

    Regarding tests the UK had one of the highest per capita testing rates in the world, though yes Germany's is different the other European nations you named were not.
    The UK had higher per capita testing rates despite being restrictive with testing because it quickly had an uncontrolled epidemic on its hands, necessitating more testing due to many very ill patients who were in need of medical care. If you implement effective suppression measures early on, and successfully arrest the development of your epidemic, you won't have to test as great a proportion of your population.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  15. #615
    The UK having a higher per capita rate of testing depends on what the other countries the news source decided to cherry pick for their graph are, the purpose of which is to show how bad the US is failing at this. I (can't be bothered to) find a full data set that's easily sortable.

    e.g.

    Click to view the full version
    Click to view the full version
    Click to view the full version
    When the sky above us fell
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  16. #616
    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    Here we go again. Slapping a label that says "this isn't cocaine" on a bag of cocaine doesn't magically transform the contents of the bag. The govt's initial plan - the one that was criticized earlier in this thread - cannot be fairly characterized as an attempt at containment or suppression; it had all the features of a half-assed attempt at mitigation, which is where you were inevitably going to end up - as, indeed, you have.
    You're the one trying to slap a mitigation label on a containment or suppression plan. They were never at a mitigation plan. They explained in a detailed why how and why they were containing and suppressing - and unlike dishonest other nations claiming they would shut things down for "15 days" that once a shutdown was put in place it would last for months so it needed to be timed right.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  17. #617
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    You're the one trying to slap a mitigation label on a containment or suppression plan. They were never at a mitigation plan. They explained in a detailed why how and why they were containing and suppressing - and unlike dishonest other nations claiming they would shut things down for "15 days" that once a shutdown was put in place it would last for months so it needed to be timed right.
    The government's plan and its actions cannot be characterized as neither attempts at containment nor a timely and effective attempt at suppression. Those are the facts. If you understand what containment requires, you will see that the govt. was not effectively pursuing containment. If you understand what suppression requires, you can see that govt. has not been effectively pursuing suppression. The most accurate description of the govt's strategy over the course of the past few weeks is various attempts at mitigation, which is where you end up when you can't contain an epidemic and won't do enough to try to suppress it. What you're saying is that these types of strategies are defined by the inaccurate and misleading labels the British govt. and its authorities initially slapped on to them. In reality, they are defined according to what they entail. The contents of a bag of cocaine are not defined by the label on the bag but by the composition of the contents.

    Meanwhile, one of the few good things about the pandemic has been the extraordinary glut of great reading in every single major scientific journal—both fascinating studies as well as interesting expert-discussions on policy. See for example this discussion on school closures:

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...el-coronavirus
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  18. #618
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    I guess this is happening in more places; I'm in talks with my tenant to lower the rent for the duration of this crisis. I'm thinking of a reduction of 25% untill the situation normalizes.
    Congratulations America

  19. #619
    You're struggling to comprehend the difference between tactics and strategy Aimless.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  20. #620
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/

    This gives a rather better overview on where your country currently is on the curve. Explanation on how this graph works can be found under the "Learn more" link at the top.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
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  21. #621
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    You're struggling to comprehend the difference between tactics and strategy Aimless.
    RB, you're genuinely derping up the conversation with your every post. You do not know what you're talking about, are frequently mistaken about the basic facts that are being discussed—even about simple things like what has actually happened and when—and are continuously making extremely silly analytical mistakes. Look, I understand that you have beliefs and opinions, but, mate, you're just plain wrong. About basic things as well as more complex things. With your inane remark about tactics vs. strategy, you're only demonstrating—once again—that you do not understand what you're talking about. If you try to elaborate on the point you think you're making, your lack of understanding will become more clear.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  22. #622
    California Gov. Gavin Newsom: Ventilators Sent by Feds Didn’t Work
    https://www.thedailybeast.com/califo...eds-didnt-work
    Because of course
    "In a field where an overlooked bug could cost millions, you want people who will speak their minds, even if they’re sometimes obnoxious about it."

  23. #623
    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    RB, you're genuinely derping up the conversation with your every post. You do not know what you're talking about, are frequently mistaken about the basic facts that are being discussed—even about simple things like what has actually happened and when—and are continuously making extremely silly analytical mistakes. Look, I understand that you have beliefs and opinions, but, mate, you're just plain wrong. About basic things as well as more complex things. With your inane remark about tactics vs. strategy, you're only demonstrating—once again—that you do not understand what you're talking about. If you try to elaborate on the point you think you're making, your lack of understanding will become more clear.
    The strategy was one of suppression and they made that very clear.

    They didn't implement the tactic of prematurely closing schools and they explained why and explained doing so without the right precautions would make suppression worse not better. That made sense and still does.

    You are making the logical fallacy of "something must be done, this is something, therefore this must be done."

    Let's break this down into smaller parts. Do you agree with the logic that if prematurely shutting schools will make spread of the virus worse then it would be wrong to prematurely shut schools?

    Forget for a second your preconceptions of whether shutting schools is a good idea - if it makes the spread of the virus worse then is it a good or bad idea? Yes or no?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  24. #624
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    The strategy was one of suppression and they made that very clear.

    They didn't implement the tactic of prematurely closing schools and they explained why and explained doing so without the right precautions would make suppression worse not better. That made sense and still does.

    You are making the logical fallacy of "something must be done, this is something, therefore this must be done."

    Let's break this down into smaller parts. Do you agree with the logic that if prematurely shutting schools will make spread of the virus worse then it would be wrong to prematurely shut schools?

    Forget for a second your preconceptions of whether shutting schools is a good idea - if it makes the spread of the virus worse then is it a good or bad idea? Yes or no?
    See my previous response to this inane argument (aka. stupid dilemma), as well as to the specious claim that the UK was pursuing a strategy of suppression when your govt. was explicitly not pursuing that goal at the critical stage of the epidemic when suppression was feasible:

    Vallance said the government’s approach was aimed at broadening the peak of the epidemic, and allowing immunity to build up among the population.

    “What we don’t want is everybody to end up getting it in a short period of time so we swamp and overwhelm NHS services – that’s the flattening of the peak,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

    “Our aim is to try and reduce the peak, broaden the peak, not suppress it completely; also, because the vast majority of people get a mild illness, to build up some kind of herd immunity so more people are immune to this disease and we reduce the transmission, at the same time we protect those who are most vulnerable to it. Those are the key things we need to do.”

    “If you suppress something very, very hard, when you release those measures it bounces back and it bounces back at the wrong time,” he said. The government is concerned that if not enough people catch the virus now, it will re-emerge in the winter, when the NHS is already overstretched.
    Classic RB.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  25. #625
    Broadening the peak (aka flattening the curve) IS a policy of suppression. Suppressing it completely is something else entirely and leaves you vulnerable to a second wave - potentially in the winter where you're more stretched.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  26. #626
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Broadening the peak (aka flattening the curve) IS a policy of suppression. Suppressing it completely is something else entirely and leaves you vulnerable to a second wave - potentially in the winter where you're more stretched.
    Please stop pulling nonsense out of your ass, and please stop trying to make up definitions for terminology that already has a recognized meaning. Read the background. Read the reports and recommendations. More importantly, read quotes before making up nonsense about what they mean. The intent expressed in that quote is very clear, and that intent is not compatible with a strategy of suppression. I see your compulsive need to beclown yourself in (unsolicited) service remains as strong as ever, but it's just getting silly now.

    Even if we accept your stupid attempt at sophistry wrt what a strategy of suppression entails in this context (and you are, in fact, wrong about this), this the rest of the quote:

    Our aim is to [...] build up some kind of herd immunity so more people are immune to this disease and we reduce the transmission, at the same time we protect those who are most vulnerable to it. Those are the key things we need to do.
    That is not a goal of a strategy of suppression at this stage. It is, in fact, incompatible with suppression. Just... just fucking read.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  27. #627
    Yes, some kind of herd immunity by suppressing the virus and flattening the curve. They were explicitly clear.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  28. #628
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Yes, some kind of herd immunity by suppressing the virus and flattening the curve. They were explicitly clear.
    That is not in fact what a strategy of suppression is, in the context of this subject and this discussion; it is, however, the core of a strategy of mitigation. Please inform yourself about these strategies first, and then we can have an informed conversation. You can begin here: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf

    Even if you only read just one paragraph of the summary, it might help you stop saying stupid things.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  29. #629
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    That is not in fact what a strategy of suppression is, in the context of this subject and this discussion; it is, however, the core of a strategy of mitigation. Please inform yourself about these strategies first, and then we can have an informed conversation. You can begin here: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf

    Even if you only read just one paragraph of the summary, it might help you stop saying stupid things.
    Aimless, I have to ask : why do you keep trying? I mean, you have better things to do than trying to make people who live in a world of their own understand that suppression and herd immunity as a policy are incompatible.

    Update; the UK will not be able to upscale it's number of ventilators to the level needed during the surge which is expected in two weeks from now.
    Last edited by Hazir; 03-29-2020 at 05:58 PM.
    Congratulations America

  30. #630
    Everyone needs a hobby or distraction; this, unfortunately, is mine. In other covid news, trust in the Swedish ministry of public health - and in the regional health trusts that run most of our healthcare system - is rapidly eroding, due to a series of increasingly dubious announcements & recs re. PPE and covid-related routines. This is a major problem even if the ministry and the trusts are right (although it's likely they aren't), because the worry and distrust is going to have a negative impact on healthcare personnel's ability to work effectively, and obv. also have a negative impact on their mental health. Attrition due to burnout and resentment may end up being far greater than that due to covid itself, by the time this crisis passes.

    It'll be interesting to see whether anyone makes any major headway with the therapeutic use of convalescent plasma.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

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