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Thread: covid-19

  1. #1051
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    A doctor friend says it has something to do with ACE-receptors being different between the races but I must admit I don't fully understand it.
    It may not be *genetic* but rather if hypertension is diagnosed and treated equally among *racial groups*. Confounding variables within healthcare delivery systems and socio-economic groups.

    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2763803

  2. #1052
    Absolutely fucking despicable:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...101_story.html

    What a fucking wuss he is.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  3. #1053
    Banana Republic or Failed State? *cough*

  4. #1054
    Quote Originally Posted by GGT View Post
    Banana Republic or Failed State? *cough*
    Wow I didn't know you followed me on Twitter
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  5. #1055
    I don't follow Twitter. But it's not the first time I've posed that question after one of your (Twitter) posts in this forum.

  6. #1056
    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    Wow I didn't know you followed me on Twitter
    Who isn't?
    Hope is the denial of reality

  7. #1057
    Quote Originally Posted by GGT View Post
    It may not be *genetic* but rather if hypertension is diagnosed and treated equally among *racial groups*. Confounding variables within healthcare delivery systems and socio-economic groups.

    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2763803
    I think there is a genetic element as even controlling for elements like that there is still a very clear statistical difference it seems. The NHS is now being advised where possible to move black doctors and nurses off the front line if they can.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  8. #1058
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...1fc_story.html

    A stupid person might read that article and think, "What would any other president have done differently? The hypocritical liberals are just attacking Trump for doing what any other president should've—and would've—done." Of course, there are no stupid people here, so everyone is clear about the devastating impact of the spectacular incompetence of this useless president and the morons enabling him.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  9. #1059
    This dumbass is just such a fitting representative of the dumbass contingent:

    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  10. #1060

  11. #1061
    She's an idiot. So are you.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  12. #1062
    First silver lining ... NRA Cut Backs
    Faith is Hope (see Loki's sig for details)
    If hindsight is 20-20, why is it so often ignored?

  13. #1063
    A new effect of the virus has been discovered in Russia where the virus is making Russian doctors 'accidentally' fall out of windows.
    https://hotair.com/archives/john-s-2...allen-windows/
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  14. #1064
    Hahahahaha "cubic model"

    I swear, as dumb as Trump is, the idiots around him may actually be even dumber
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  15. #1065
    Quote Originally Posted by Being View Post
    In the interest of posterity, I predict this pandemic will produce a degree of stagflation never seen in recorded history. Prices will soar and wages will stagnate. Wealth inequality will increase and homelessness will become how we define poverty.
    Meat prices up 20%.
    Faith is Hope (see Loki's sig for details)
    If hindsight is 20-20, why is it so often ignored?

  16. #1066
    Meat prices are up due to supply problems. All indications are that we have deflation, not inflation.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  17. #1067
    Exponential curves are not intuitive.
    But if you use logarithmic scale, it becomes a line.
    This chart will be interesting to you.
    Most of countries follow the same line, unless they mitigate.
    https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/
    If they let things lose, line becomes parallel to the original and go back to out of control. If the line becomes steeper, there is massive infection.
    Here you can see all countries and compare and see what news are not telling you.
    Sweden and Russia were in the same situation one month ago. Sweden did heavy mitigation (despite fake news claiming the opposite) and Russia did not. So Russia is what happens without mitigation and Sweden with mitigation. This is why Russian doctors are comitting suicide.
    USA also has done a great work, it is like steering a huge ship.
    Freedom - When people learn to embrace criticism about politicians, since politicians are just employees like you and me.

  18. #1068
    News: Virus researcher dead in suspected murder; Leaked documents show coverup; Scholars warn 2nd outbreak
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2LJy639j8Q

    And also you may like to watch WION from India
    https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_g...dPW9K1g/videos

    No American or European fake news.
    Last edited by ar81; 05-06-2020 at 03:48 AM.
    Freedom - When people learn to embrace criticism about politicians, since politicians are just employees like you and me.

  19. #1069
    A recent seroprevalence survey in Sthlm estimated around 10% infected in Sthlm around the end of may. The test itself is very good—assuming it's the one I think it is; by my reckoning, under a wide range of estimates for prevalence—and a less wide range of estimates for true sensitivity and specificity—a person who tested positive at the time should've had a roughly 80-90% likelihood of actually being positive, and it should be over 95% for testing conducted from now on. I think that the test is more likely than not to underestimate—rather than overestimate—seroprevalence, given the methodology used in the study.

    The Swedish Medical Association's official journal published an opinion piece by a reasonably esteemed professor, in which he predicted that we'd have 50% infected by the time we reach 3,000 deaths. The same professor asserted, a month prior to that, in Sweden's largest newspaper, that it'd be 1,000 deaths by the time we have 50% infected. In both pieces he took a few digs at people he believed were making uninformed forecasts that were obstructing the political response and making health-economic calculations impossible. According to the most optimistic estimates from his own friends, we're now a week or so from 50%. Officially, we now have 2,941 deaths (but, accounting for reporting lag, probably around 3,300). Even if you only consider officially attributed deaths—ie. disregard people who die of covid without being tested, roughly 10-15% in Sweden if we're being charitable—we'll have more than 4,000 covid deaths by then. Now that's both tragic and embarrassing, but life is full of surprises, and not even the most knowledgeable people can get everything right, but it doesn't end there. The same professor twice misrepresented the reports from Imperial College, suggesting that their later forecasts (which had been revised sharply downwards from the horror-forecast that caused the UK to change tack) had been revised downwards because they'd previously grossly overestimated the infection fatality rate at 1%, and that non-pharmacological interventions were irrelevant. This is simply false—the later report he cites assumes an IFR of 1%, and attributes the lower estimated death toll directly to NPIs. This isn't just annoying—it directly undermines his central argument about the uselessness of NPIs (never mind the questionable move to use an argument that he himself then attempts to completely invalidate—this borders on fallacy).

    Finally, he—unbelievably—suggested that there was no need for our ministry of health & social affairs to release any of their work so that it can be assessed by experts all over the world, because only Swedish epidemiologists are capable of assessing Swedish epidemiological work and nothing of value can be gained from letting others see their work. There are, of course, several reasons why sharing this work—and letting it be assessed by other experts—would be good for everyone, in Sweden and elsewhere. His position on this last matter is as comical as it is disgraceful, but obv. you can't say that openly to such an esteemed figure, so I haven't. Nor can you say any of the other things I've said here, it seems; I and others have tried to point out the factual errors he's made, and also tried to present very courteous and substantive rebuttals to his claims about the value of peer-review in scientific work even when it pertains to ongoing policymaking, but all of these comments have been either censored to remove these points—leaving little more than expressions of gratitude, with no sign that the comment has been censored—or outright rejected. I have never before seen such behavior from this journal—they've always been fairly laissez-faire about publishing critical comments, even aggressive ones that aren't substantive—and it is deeply unsettling, because it indicates that disputing any element of our pandemic response is not permitted. It shames our entire medical corps. Yuck, gross. smdh
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  20. #1070
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    Does it cheer you up if I tell you that in most comments I read in the press (USA, UK, Netherlands and Germany) the Swedish model is described as actually not very successful by any metric, and that its justifications are mostly based in a particular brand of Swedish arrogance. Finally it mostly didn't turn Sweden in a circle of Hell because the majority of the people may not be inclined to question authority but actually used their common sense even if that meant erring on the side of caution.
    Congratulations America

  21. #1071
    Quote Originally Posted by Hazir View Post
    Does it cheer you up if I tell you that in most comments I read in the press (USA, UK, Netherlands and Germany) the Swedish model is described as actually not very successful by any metric, and that its justifications are mostly based in a particular brand of Swedish arrogance. Finally it mostly didn't turn Sweden in a circle of Hell because the majority of the people may not be inclined to question authority but actually used their common sense even if that meant erring on the side of caution.
    Numbers show that the following nations did a better job to contain COVID when compared to Sweden: Togo, Vietnam, Taiwan, Uruguay, Sri Lanka, Somalia, Slovenia, Slovakia, Thailand, Serbia, South Africa, Costa Rica, just to name a few.

    If you get infected there are two outcomes. Dead or recovered. If we think the sum of those is 100%, here are the mortality rates a few days ago, if we use that number as 100%. Sweden second worst.

    Norway 181 deaths, 32 recovered. Mortality 84.97%
    Sweden 1580 deaths, 550 recovered. Mortality 74.1%
    Finland 98 deaths, 2000 recovered. Mortality 46.7%
    USA 42518 deaths, 72389 recovered. Mortality 37%
    Italy 24114 deaths, 48877 recovered. Mortality 33%
    Mexico 712 deaths, 2627 recovered. Mortality 21.3%
    Spain 20852 deaths, 80587 recovered. Mortality 20.5%
    Japan 263 deaths, 1239 recovered. Mortality 17.5%
    Argentina 142 deaths, 737 recovered. Mortality 16.15%
    Canada 1690 deaths, 12586 recovered. Mortality 11.8%
    Russia 405 deaths, 3446 recovered. Mortality 10.5%
    Denmark 364 deaths, 4312 recovered. Mortality 7.78%
    China 4632 deaths, 77123 recovered. Mortality 5.7%
    Germany has 4862 dead, recovered 95200. Mortality 4.85%
    Costa Rica 6 deaths, 124 recovered. Mortality 4.6%
    Uruguay 11 deaths, 313 recovered. Mortality 3.3%
    Taiwan 6 deaths, 203 recovered. Mortality 2.8%
    Iceland 10 deaths, 1362 recovered. Mortality 0.7%
    Freedom - When people learn to embrace criticism about politicians, since politicians are just employees like you and me.

  22. #1072
    Don't know where the heck you got those figures from but they're clearly nonsense.

    Far, far more than 2130 people in Sweden have been infected
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  23. #1073
    Quote Originally Posted by ar81 View Post
    Numbers show that the following nations did a better job to contain COVID when compared to Sweden: Togo, Vietnam, Taiwan, Uruguay, Sri Lanka, Somalia, Slovenia, Slovakia, Thailand, Serbia, South Africa, Costa Rica, just to name a few.

    If you get infected there are two outcomes. Dead or recovered. If we think the sum of those is 100%, here are the mortality rates a few days ago, if we use that number as 100%. Sweden second worst.

    Norway 181 deaths, 32 recovered. Mortality 84.97%
    Sweden 1580 deaths, 550 recovered. Mortality 74.1%
    Finland 98 deaths, 2000 recovered. Mortality 46.7%
    USA 42518 deaths, 72389 recovered. Mortality 37%
    Italy 24114 deaths, 48877 recovered. Mortality 33%
    Mexico 712 deaths, 2627 recovered. Mortality 21.3%
    Spain 20852 deaths, 80587 recovered. Mortality 20.5%
    Japan 263 deaths, 1239 recovered. Mortality 17.5%
    Argentina 142 deaths, 737 recovered. Mortality 16.15%
    Canada 1690 deaths, 12586 recovered. Mortality 11.8%
    Russia 405 deaths, 3446 recovered. Mortality 10.5%
    Denmark 364 deaths, 4312 recovered. Mortality 7.78%
    China 4632 deaths, 77123 recovered. Mortality 5.7%
    Germany has 4862 dead, recovered 95200. Mortality 4.85%
    Costa Rica 6 deaths, 124 recovered. Mortality 4.6%
    Uruguay 11 deaths, 313 recovered. Mortality 3.3%
    Taiwan 6 deaths, 203 recovered. Mortality 2.8%
    Iceland 10 deaths, 1362 recovered. Mortality 0.7%
    Hi, sorry, you've made a basic error here, that relates to the GIGO (garbage in, garbage out) principle. Your argument rests on the incorrect assumption that we know how many people are infected, how many of those have died, and how many have recovered. We know none of those things, because only a small fraction of those who are infected are tested, and the criteria for testing—and, therefore, the coverage—as well as clinical practice wrt who gets hospitalized vary greatly from one country to the next. The metric you've calculated is meaningless when it comes to assessing how different countries have fared in comparison to one another, and a basic plausibility check wrt. Norway and Finland would've tipped you off to this. In more general terms, you're calculating the ratio of garbage to stinkier garbage, and, as a rule, when you divide by garbage... you just get more garbage.

    Moreover, your numbers are wrong. As of today, Sweden has registered 3,040 covid deaths—not 1580; taking reporting lag into account, the official death toll up until today is likely to be close to 3,400, and a few hundred more are likely to be missed altogether because they haven't been tested (although they may be adjudicated as likely covid deaths later).

    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Don't know where the heck you got those figures from but they're clearly nonsense.

    Far, far more than 2130 people in Sweden have been infected
    Official case figures for many countries are likely off by an order of magnitude—and then some.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  24. #1074
    The numbers for developed countries are not entirely reliable. Certainly the number of infections and recoveries can't be trusted. The idea that Third World countries, especially the dictatorships among them, have either the ability or the will to report accurate figures is dumb beyond belief.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  25. #1075
    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    Hi, sorry, you've made a basic error here, that relates to the GIGO (garbage in, garbage out) principle. Your argument rests on the incorrect assumption that we know how many people are infected, how many of those have died, and how many have recovered. We know none of those things, because only a small fraction of those who are infected are tested, and the criteria for testing—and, therefore, the coverage—as well as clinical practice wrt who gets hospitalized vary greatly from one country to the next. The metric you've calculated is meaningless when it comes to assessing how different countries have fared in comparison to one another, and a basic plausibility check wrt. Norway and Finland would've tipped you off to this. In more general terms, you're calculating the ratio of garbage to stinkier garbage, and, as a rule, when you divide by garbage... you just get more garbage.

    Moreover, your numbers are wrong. As of today, Sweden has registered 3,040 covid deaths—not 1580; taking reporting lag into account, the official death toll up until today is likely to be close to 3,400, and a few hundred more are likely to be missed altogether because they haven't been tested (although they may be adjudicated as likely covid deaths later).



    Official case figures for many countries are likely off by an order of magnitude—and then some.
    Garbage comes from WHO figures.
    Freedom - When people learn to embrace criticism about politicians, since politicians are just employees like you and me.

  26. #1076
    Many panic buyers were CCP people who smuggled goods to China, either to resell domestically under excuse of donate or to reexport.

    China's Supply Chain Domination: CCP Directed, U.S. Assisted
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OkBYeKAsbxg
    Freedom - When people learn to embrace criticism about politicians, since politicians are just employees like you and me.

  27. #1077
    Quote Originally Posted by ar81 View Post
    Garbage comes from WHO figures.
    The figures are those reported by each country. The countries themselves formulate and implement their own testing policies.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  28. #1078
    Quote Originally Posted by ar81 View Post
    Garbage comes from WHO figures.
    Just look at the figures and think about them for two seconds before spreading them. Did you really think all but 550 Swedes had died? Preposterous on the face of it.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  29. #1079
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    I think there is a genetic element as even controlling for elements like that there is still a very clear statistical difference it seems. The NHS is now being advised where possible to move black doctors and nurses off the front line if they can.
    I'm concerned you're making that kind of genetic/racial correlation before all the facts are in. At this early point in understanding a *novel* virus, that "seems" like racist and/or xenophobic confirmation bias against immigrant (black) doctors and nurses (by your NHS) more than anything else.

  30. #1080
    Trump will be tested *daily* since one of his military valets (close personal attendants) tested positive.

    But testing doesn't make sense for the rest of the US. Even CDC guidelines are too restrictive. Wearing masks and social distancing is for schmucks.

    This "War Time" president has given up the fight against covid-19, and designated low-wage workers as the "Warriors" who should sacrifice their lives for the sake of the larger economy, ie the financially privileged. Welcome to the United Corporations of America, folks!

    Covfefe lol
    Last edited by GGT; 05-08-2020 at 06:28 AM.

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