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Thread: covid-19

  1. #1621
    Senior Member Flixy's Avatar
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    Over the past two weeks, positive cases have been on the rise here. While testing also increased at the same time, the test positive rate is also rising, so it definitely looks like cases are increasing. Plus Belgium, which is very close to where I live, has strong rise in cases as well, particularly in the city where my sister and my nephews live. At the same time, our government is still saying masks are not necessary in most situations. Even if they're not - at least people won't forget that there's a virus going around if they wear it.

    On the bright side, number of people admitted to hospitals has not risen, maybe it still will, or maybe we are now finding more mild cases (there is a major increase in positive tests for younger people). And after the government sounded the alarm on the number of people with mild symptoms not getting tested, literally the next day there was a massive increase in tests already. So people are still listening, so perhaps the rise in cases will slow down soon as people are aware it is happening. We'll see.

    If I were to visit my sister now, who lives ~40 minutes away, I'd have to quarantine for 2 weeks now Then again, I avoid traveling as much as possible anyway so I was not planning to do that.
    Quote Originally Posted by Timbuk2 View Post
    Coronavirus: England highest level of excess deaths in Europe

    Click to view the full version

    England had the highest levels of excess deaths in Europe between the end of February and the middle of June, official analysis shows.

    The Office for National Statistics says England saw the second highest peak rates of death in Europe, after Spain.

    But England had the longest period where deaths were above average, and so overall had the highest levels.

    Areas in Spain and Italy, like Milan and Madrid, were harder hit than cities in the UK

    But the ONS analysis shows the epidemic in the UK was more widespread than in other countries, with Scotland seeing the third highest death rate in Europe.
    I am curious why the French numbers are so extraordinarily low when their official numbers are not.

    edit: just saw that this is from may 23d onwards, so I guess their numbers peaked well before that.
    Keep on keepin' the beat alive!

  2. #1622
    Well, testing has finally come my way.

    Colleague of my partner's has tested positive. She had socialised with three other colleagues the day before testing positive. One of those other colleagues was in the office yesterday with my partner and around 10 others.

    We just found out about the positive tester socialising with the three others. So we have just gone through the government COVID response website, whacked in our details, found the nearest test centre - around 3 miles away - and we have an appointment in just under an hour's time. Really efficient process, am quite impressed.
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    It's actually the original French billion, which is bi-million, which is a million to the power of 2. We adopted the word, and then they changed it, presumably as revenge for Crecy and Agincourt, and then the treasonous Americans adopted the new French usage and spread it all over the world. And now we have to use it.

    And that's Why I'm Voting Leave.

  3. #1623
    Quote Originally Posted by Timbuk2 View Post
    Well, testing has finally come my way.

    Colleague of my partner's has tested positive. She had socialised with three other colleagues the day before testing positive. One of those other colleagues was in the office yesterday with my partner and around 10 others.

    We just found out about the positive tester socialising with the three others. So we have just gone through the government COVID response website, whacked in our details, found the nearest test centre - around 3 miles away - and we have an appointment in just under an hour's time. Really efficient process, am quite impressed.
    Hope everyone ends up negative, buddy.
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  4. #1624
    Thanks. Results take 24 hours.
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    It's actually the original French billion, which is bi-million, which is a million to the power of 2. We adopted the word, and then they changed it, presumably as revenge for Crecy and Agincourt, and then the treasonous Americans adopted the new French usage and spread it all over the world. And now we have to use it.

    And that's Why I'm Voting Leave.

  5. #1625
    Jesus, only a day? The state run tests here are taking 2 weeks to get results back. People are starting to realize that they are next to pointless to bother with at that point and are electing to not say anything about possible infections, cause who wants to be quarantined away from work for 2 weeks with no pay just to be told the test was negative?
    "In a field where an overlooked bug could cost millions, you want people who will speak their minds, even if they’re sometimes obnoxious about it."

  6. #1626
    Official line is it takes 48 to 72 hours to get the results, but we were told we should receive them in 12 to 24. Suppose it depends how busy they are. Big drive through test centre we went to was almost entirely empty.

    2 weeks is crazy though . You guys need more Ssssocialist ssspending...
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    It's actually the original French billion, which is bi-million, which is a million to the power of 2. We adopted the word, and then they changed it, presumably as revenge for Crecy and Agincourt, and then the treasonous Americans adopted the new French usage and spread it all over the world. And now we have to use it.

    And that's Why I'm Voting Leave.

  7. #1627
    Glad the process was efficient for you Tim, hoping its negative.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Jesus, only a day? The state run tests here are taking 2 weeks to get results back. People are starting to realize that they are next to pointless to bother with at that point and are electing to not say anything about possible infections, cause who wants to be quarantined away from work for 2 weeks with no pay just to be told the test was negative?
    2 weeks? What's the point in even bothering with the test if it takes 2 weeks?

    It took 48 for mine when they first rolled out, but its hours is the norm here now. My wife gets one every week now for work.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  8. #1628
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Jesus, only a day? The state run tests here are taking 2 weeks to get results back. People are starting to realize that they are next to pointless to bother with at that point and are electing to not say anything about possible infections, cause who wants to be quarantined away from work for 2 weeks with no pay just to be told the test was negative?
    Mean wait in MA is 2.2 days and it would be faster but we're dealing with overflow from states that didn't scale up capacity as aggressively.
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  9. #1629
    A limited local lockdown is being reimposed in parts of Northern England, including swathes near to where I live, but not covering where I live. Not surprised at all having been keeping an eye on the data - my particular city I live in now (in Lancashire) is trending next-to-no infections, but the nearest other city to us is trending one of the most in the country. They're being locked down, we're not. Its logical, hopefully it works.

    The local lockdown is not as severe as what Leicester had. Basically just saying not to mix households so businesses don't need to close down but don't go into each other's homes and only go to a restaurant with your own household. Hopefully its enough to work.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  10. #1630
    Belgium 861.14
    United Kingdom 691.26
    Spain 608.71
    Peru 588.2
    Italy 581.3
    Sweden 562.69
    Chile 495.38
    USA 459.97
    France 449.67
    Brazil 430.3

    Latest update on the ole scoreboard. Looks like Belgium and UK continue to lead the shitshow but South American countries are fast catching up. France used to be worse than America but we've now pulled ahead of them. With more cases springing up comparatively we might approach Sweden's numbers but I think Brazil will rocket up past us soon.

  11. #1631
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Glad the process was efficient for you Tim, hoping its negative.
    Thanks. Just received a text and email. Negative.
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    It's actually the original French billion, which is bi-million, which is a million to the power of 2. We adopted the word, and then they changed it, presumably as revenge for Crecy and Agincourt, and then the treasonous Americans adopted the new French usage and spread it all over the world. And now we have to use it.

    And that's Why I'm Voting Leave.

  12. #1632
    Still treating it like a scoreboard? Oh wait you actually used the word scoreboard?

    Dipshit.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  13. #1633
    I wouldn't pay any attention, his numbers are either using a meaningless metric, totally out of date, or completely incorrect.

    True picture of per capita cases as of today is below.

    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    It's actually the original French billion, which is bi-million, which is a million to the power of 2. We adopted the word, and then they changed it, presumably as revenge for Crecy and Agincourt, and then the treasonous Americans adopted the new French usage and spread it all over the world. And now we have to use it.

    And that's Why I'm Voting Leave.

  14. #1634
    Quote Originally Posted by Timbuk2 View Post
    I wouldn't pay any attention, his numbers are either using a meaningless metric, totally out of date, or completely incorrect.

    True picture of per capita cases as of today is below.

    He's just reposting something posted by some goober on one of his forums for sad sacks. The numbers are from statista, and they're a count of deaths per million. Steely's post here is an effective illustration of just how dumb our "data is data" friend is being:

    http://theworldforgotten.com/showthr...542#post216542
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  15. #1635
    France's momentum is concerning from that graph Tim.

    I am starting to think maybe we should quarantine anyone who does international travel afterall.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  16. #1636
    Senior Member Flixy's Avatar
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    Glad to hear
    Keep on keepin' the beat alive!

  17. #1637
    I have arrived at the unsettling conclusion that the WSJ's editorial board is actually full of actual fucking idiots:

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-loc...on-11596150889
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  18. #1638
    Senior Member Flixy's Avatar
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    I'm amazed how the costs of a lockdown are always contrasted with the pre-covid figures. Yes, it has costs, but without any measures your economy will also be hurt (significantly).
    Keep on keepin' the beat alive!

  19. #1639
    Quote Originally Posted by Flixy View Post
    I'm amazed how the costs of a lockdown are always contrasted with the pre-covid figures. Yes, it has costs, but without any measures your economy will also be hurt (significantly).
    Shhh, you'll hurt Dread's feelings.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  20. #1640
    SAGE scientist on Sky saying that the reason pubs are allowed to open but home gatherings are being banned across the North West is because their data shows that transmission is happening within homes and between families and not pubs.

    Interesting.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  21. #1641
    Quote Originally Posted by wiggin View Post
    Mean wait in MA is 2.2 days and it would be faster but we're dealing with overflow from states that didn't scale up capacity as aggressively.
    I don't know what the mean wait is here in CA, but I know there have been two associates at my new job that have tested positive in the last month and in both cases it was more than two weeks from their last date of attendance before the positive confirmation came back. Some of that is going to be a delay between having symptoms or knowing they've been exposed and getting tested in the first place but I doubt that's most of the cause for the time delay
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

  22. #1642
    Quote Originally Posted by LittleFuzzy View Post
    I don't know what the mean wait is here in CA, but I know there have been two associates at my new job that have tested positive in the last month and in both cases it was more than two weeks from their last date of attendance before the positive confirmation came back. Some of that is going to be a delay between having symptoms or knowing they've been exposed and getting tested in the first place but I doubt that's most of the cause for the time delay
    For symptomatic people, test turnaround in MA is super fast now. For asymptomatic (e.g. travel related or contact tracing during quarantine) it can be slower - a lot of those tests are sent to national labs and they're overwhelmed. The state has machine capacity to run 30k tests a day (hoping to expand by EOY), and they only are doing about 10k/day. Most of the delays are associated with loaning capacity to other places or limits on reagents etc. which have mostly been resolved.

    Any contact tracing and surveillance testing regime needs to have very rapid turnaround. They can pool samples, though, to get faster results in a pinch - but that only helps much if you have low positive rates, which isn't the case of much of the country. It's a mess but frankly most states don't have an excuse, there has been ample time to ramp up capacity and logistics.
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  23. #1643
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    SAGE scientist on Sky saying that the reason pubs are allowed to open but home gatherings are being banned across the North West is because their data shows that transmission is happening within homes and between families and not pubs.

    Interesting.
    More inclined to describe it as poppycock rather than interesting. There's enough evidence for high risk of transmission in crowded indoor environments such as bars and pubs that, absent detailed info on methodology, assumptions & results, I'm inclined to believe the govt's data is either 1. bad, or 2. being misrepresented, or 3. both.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  24. #1644
    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    More inclined to describe it as poppycock rather than interesting. There's enough evidence for high risk of transmission in crowded indoor environments such as bars and pubs that, absent detailed info on methodology, assumptions & results, I'm inclined to believe the govt's data is either 1. bad, or 2. being misrepresented, or 3. both.
    I doubt it will be poppycock, these scientists are independent experts from universities etc they're not politicians and not paid by the government either. They should have no agenda and are there voluntarily to share their expertise.

    As for how they calculated it they have access to all the track and trace data. They know exactly who has tested positive as well as trying to trace whom they got it from and whom they have infected and how.

    Pubs and bars aren't allowed to be "crowded" at the minute. Any that flout social distancing rules can be shut down.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  25. #1645
    Quote Originally Posted by LittleFuzzy View Post
    I don't know what the mean wait is here in CA, but I know there have been two associates at my new job that have tested positive in the last month and in both cases it was more than two weeks from their last date of attendance before the positive confirmation came back. Some of that is going to be a delay between having symptoms or knowing they've been exposed and getting tested in the first place but I doubt that's most of the cause for the time delay
    Two weeks rather defeats the purpose of testing in the first place.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  26. #1646
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    ...these scientists are independent experts from universities etc they're not politicians and not paid by the government either...
    You lie a lot.

    Sir Patrick Vallance FMedSci FRS Government Chief Scientific Adviser
    Professor Chris Whitty CB FMedSci Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Adviser, Department of Health and Social Care
    Professor John Aston Chief Scientific Adviser, Home Office
    Fliss Bennee Welsh Government
    Mr Allan Bennett Public Health England
    Professor Phil Blythe Chief Scientific Adviser, Department for Transport
    Caroline Cake HDR-UK
    Professor Paul Cosford Public Health England
    Dr Gavin Dabrera Public Health England
    Professor Sir Ian Diamond FRSE FBA National Statistician, Office for National Statistics
    Professor Yvonne Doyle CB Medical Director, Public Health England
    Professor Kevin Fenton Public Health England
    Dr Aidan Fowler FRCS National Health Service England
    Professor Robin Grimes Chief Scientific Adviser, Ministry of Defence
    Dr David Halpern Behavioural Insights Team, Cabinet Office
    Dido Harding NHSI
    Dr Jenny Harries OBE Deputy Chief Medical Officer
    Professor Dame Angela McLean FRS Chief Scientific Adviser, Ministry of Defence
    Dr Jim McMenamin Health Protection Scotland
    Professor Carole Mundell Chief Scientific Adviser, Foreign and Commonwealth Office
    Professor Sharon Peacock FMedSci Public Health England
    Professor Alan Penn Chief Scientific Adviser, Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government
    Professor Steve Powis FRCP National Health Service England
    Dr Mike Prentice National Health Service England
    The list goes on...
    .

  27. #1647
    Yeah no shit the NHS staff and permanent staffers are paid by government but I was specifically talking about the independent scientists. They are not paid to sit on SAGE as a deliberate policy so that they speak freely without fear or favour.

    When Chris Whitty speaks he is introduced and speaks as Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientist not as "scientist on SAGE committee". Same for everyone else on your list. When the SAGE scientists speak they get referred to by their title (eg University they are a professor at or similar) and as being a SAGE member but they're not paid to be on SAGE.

    In Star Trek terms the unpaid scientists may as well be called "unnamed crew member in a red shirt".
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  28. #1648
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    I doubt it will be poppycock, these scientists are independent experts from universities etc they're not politicians and not paid by the government either. They should have no agenda and are there voluntarily to share their expertise.

    As for how they calculated it they have access to all the track and trace data. They know exactly who has tested positive as well as trying to trace whom they got it from and whom they have infected and how.

    Pubs and bars aren't allowed to be "crowded" at the minute. Any that flout social distancing rules can be shut down.
    It's likely to be poppycock.

    1. High risk of low-quality testing & tracing data—eg. due to inadequate coverage of pubs. Tracing contacts you've had at home is easy; reliably tracing contacts you may have had at the pub is considerably more difficult, and there is no reason to believe the UK has solved this problem.

    2. No evidence has been presented that shows the transmission in pubs and the like to be so low as to not merit concern. If say 15% of cases directly result from hanging out at the pub, that's a huge problem—not least because you risk creating a greater number of clusters.

    3. So long as people stay away from pubs, you are likely to see fewer cases directly linked to pubs. That's not a good argument for loosening restrictions on pubs; on the contrary, it implies that, when restrictions are lifted, more cases—and a larger share of cases—will be directly or indirectly linked to pubs.

    4. You have to assess evidence in context. There is no reason to believe that pubs are sufficiently low-risk environments, and good reason to believe the opposite: https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...shire-12038760
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  29. #1649
    1. Anyone who goes to the pub has to by law (COVID regulations) leave their contact details there when they do, my wife went to one earlier today after work to meet her sister for a cocktail and they had to leave their details; that is to enable track and trace in theory but in practice I am not convinced how useful it will be.

    2. Of course its a potential concern.

    3. Of course that is correct. Though pubs reopened on 4 July.

    4. Of course that is correct.

    You are entirely correct in everything you've said but it doesn't make the scientists claim "poppycock" still, because you're leaping from one train of thought onto another. Yes, I completely and 100% agree that pubs could be a concern. Yes it wouldn't surprise me to see them locked down again in the future. In particular Chris Whitty said today that we are at the limits of what can be done without R going back above 1 so now it is a balancing act, he essentially said if we want to loosen something then something else will need to be tightened to maintain balance on R. There is already talk that in September it could be a case of pubs or schools being open - to which the only reasonable response can be to say that schools are the ones that should be open.

    However none of what you wrote is relevant to the matter of the Northwest's lockdown or what is being said. The Northwest's restrictions that have come in now have come in from a rise in confirmed cases. They know whose cases have been confirmed. They know who has the virus and they [largely] know where they got it from. They're dealing with the data of today, not potential issues for tomorrow. Having the pubs open may be a bad idea and in three weeks time they may be ordered to close. But today's restrictions are not due to them. Today's restrictions are because of a confirmed rise in infections from at-home cross-family transmission and that is what is trying to be nipped in the bud.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  30. #1650
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    1. Anyone who goes to the pub has to by law (COVID regulations) leave their contact details there when they do, my wife went to one earlier today after work to meet her sister for a cocktail and they had to leave their details; that is to enable track and trace in theory but in practice I am not convinced how useful it will be.
    Unless something has changed in the official guidance in the past couple of weeks, this claim is not correct. Sharing this info is voluntary. Proprietors are required to record contact info and preserve those records for 3 weeks, but patrons are not required by law to share their contact info. If that guidance has changed in the past couple of weeks, it should be noted that the govt. cannot in that case have reliable up-to-date info on transmission routes.

    You are entirely correct in everything you've said but it doesn't make the scientists claim "poppycock" still, because you're leaping from one train of thought onto another. Yes, I completely and 100% agree that pubs could be a concern. Yes it wouldn't surprise me to see them locked down again in the future. In particular Chris Whitty said today that we are at the limits of what can be done without R going back above 1 so now it is a balancing act, he essentially said if we want to loosen something then something else will need to be tightened to maintain balance on R. There is already talk that in September it could be a case of pubs or schools being open - to which the only reasonable response can be to say that schools are the ones that should be open.

    However none of what you wrote is relevant to the matter of the Northwest's lockdown or what is being said. The Northwest's restrictions that have come in now have come in from a rise in confirmed cases. They know whose cases have been confirmed. They know who has the virus and they [largely] know where they got it from. They're dealing with the data of today, not potential issues for tomorrow. Having the pubs open may be a bad idea and in three weeks time they may be ordered to close. But today's restrictions are not due to them. Today's restrictions are because of a confirmed rise in infections from at-home cross-family transmission and that is what is trying to be nipped in the bud.
    "Poppycock" is in reference to both the purported rationale as well as the alleged findings. I don't dispute the validity of the claim that transmission is occurring withing homes—I dispute the "and not pubs" part of your account. Consequently, I must also dispute the validity of either of those claims as an argument for keeping pubs open while banning gatherings in private gardens; both should be restricted. In addition, the govt. should make the data on which it claims to have based this decision available to the public, along with a detailed account of their assumptions & methods. What you're describing is a govt. that's taking a dangerously re-active approach to fighting the pandemic, rather than a pro-active one.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

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