covid-19

[Flixy]

As of this week our government 'strongly advises' to wear masks in indoor public areas (e.g. supermarkets). Yes, we're a bit late to the party. But the whole thing is done in such a half assed way..

For starters, it's not mandatory but a recommendation. Shops can make it mandatory, but most big ones stated they won't, because a) it's not their job, and b) because they don't want to have the arguments with customers. And I don't blame them, if it's needed it should be mandatory from the government.

And while remembering it's an advise only, it's not that they stated "okay, we hopes this would not be needed, but with the strong increase in cases this is needed as an extra measure to turn the tide". Or anything similar. Basically they said, we don't think it will help much but people are asking for it, so fine, let's recommend this as well.

So yesterday I was in the supermarket for the first time since this was introduced, and I guess which such a 'strong' message from the government, it's no surprise that only about half the people were wearing one.. the newspaper interviewed some people, and responses included "even the prime ministers says they're not effective, so why bother?"

Add test shortages, and I think it's fair to say our government is not doing great. And unlike in the beginning of the year, they had time - there were a few months when things were under control before we got a second wave.

At my job from Monday on masks are mandatory when moving within the buildings, so that's something. And changed back from "work mostly from home" to "work from home unless you have to come to the office for a business critical activities".

[RandBlade]

There seems to be increasing evidence that not only does mask wearing reduce infections, but that it means (due to a lower viral load at infection) that it means the infection is less likely to be serious or result in complications.

[Flixy]

Really? I'd think that increased viral load only affects likelihood of infection not the severity, but then I'm no virologist. I imagine any amount of virus you inhale pales in comparison to the amounts released during the actual infection.

[Aimless]

Really? I'd think that increased viral load only affects likelihood of infection not the severity, but then I'm no virologist. I imagine any amount of virus you inhale pales in comparison to the amounts released during the actual infection.

High viral load in the lungs is believed to increase risk of more severe initial infection. A while back, people began speculating that wearing face masks—generally portrayed as a means of solidarically protecting others—might have an additional benefit as a tool for variolation, which is what RB is referring to here. What these people haven't considered is the significant downside, which completely negates the benefit of the variolation effect—namely that societies full of uncommonly beautiful people will see skyrocketing deaths due to depression from beauty deprivation. This is an especially great concern here in Sweden.

[RandBlade]

Really? I'd think that increased viral load only affects likelihood of infection not the severity, but then I'm no virologist. I imagine any amount of virus you inhale pales in comparison to the amounts released during the actual infection.

Since March there's been increasing evidence that initial viral load has a major impact on the severity of the illness. One of the first flags of this in the UK was evidence that partners of people who had recovered from the virus, who caught it from their spouse, were getting more severe illnesses than their spouse got when they contracted the disease. So advice was quickly put in that sick people must isolate from their spouse even within the home. This is I believe related to variolation as Aimless says and that masks help with this tremendously.

Aimless can probably better explain but the way variolation works but I've had it explained is that the viral load starting at a low base means it takes longer to multiply out of control to the point it overwhelms your bodies defences, so if you catch a small viral load then your body has a better chance to develop the antibodies/antigens (sorry I get them mixed up) needed to fight the illness before you get truly sick. Whereas if your body catches a high initial viral load then that multiplies from a higher base much faster and makes it more likely to overwhelm your body and develop severe symptoms before you can get better.

https://www.healthline.com/health-ne...-from-covid-19
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2026913

[rille]

... namely that societies full of uncommonly beautiful people will see skyrocketing deaths due to depression from beauty deprivation. This is an especially great concern here in Sweden.

lol?

[Flixy]

Interesting, thanks for sharing and explaining

[LittleFuzzy]

High viral load in the lungs is believed to increase risk of more severe initial infection. A while back, people began speculating that wearing face masks—generally portrayed as a means of solidarically protecting others—might have an additional benefit as a tool for variolation, which is what RB is referring to here. What these people haven't considered is the significant downside, which completely negates the benefit of the variolation effect—namely that societies full of uncommonly beautiful people will see skyrocketing deaths due to depression from beauty deprivation. This is an especially great concern here in Sweden.

I think the solution is obvious, considering our evolutionary psychology. Masks on, shirts off.

[RandBlade]

Telling students not to socialise not exactly working . . . after illicit Freshers Week parties 770 students have tested positive so far at Northumbria University.

The apocryphal story about Northumbria is that it was going to be called the Central University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne until somebody realised the acronym.

Remarkably despite that outbreak and also major ones in Manchester and other universities, cases are going back down now in England. So outside of universities the "rule of 6" and 10pm pub curfew seems to be working.

[Loki]

Telling students not to socialise not exactly working . . . after illicit Freshers Week parties 770 students have tested positive so far at Northumbria University.

The apocryphal story about Northumbria is that it was going to be called the Central University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne until somebody realised the acronym.

Remarkably despite that outbreak and also major ones in Manchester and other universities, cases are going back down now in England. So outside of universities the "rule of 6" and 10pm pub curfew seems to be working.

If English universities are anything like the ones here, after about a month, so many people will get infected that there won't be irresponsible students left to infect.

[Being]

What was the last Trump Tweet?

[RandBlade]

Interesting.

Twitter Link

[Aimless]

Interesting.

Twitter Link

Interesting, but our authorities have recently confirmed that this in no way applies to SARS-CoV-2/SWE. The Swedish version is more muscular—or more morose, it's one of the two—and thus falls to the ground very swiftly upon being ejected from the airways by coughs and sneezes.

[RandBlade]

Are you saying the strain of Covid in Sweden is different to that elsewhere? That seems fascinating if so.

A lot of idiots in the UK want us to open up completely to follow what they call "the Swedish model" despite it not being what Sweden has done and despite the fact that the UK is not Sweden. If our virus is a different strain too, that is not something I was aware of - do you have a citation for that?

[Wraith]

Covid mutates faster than the flu. There've already been a few known mutations, so it's not all that surprising.

[Aimless]

Are you saying the strain of Covid in Sweden is different to that elsewhere? That seems fascinating if so.

I'm saying our officials are unashamedly bullshitting us. They were asked about mounting evidence—honestly, mounting since this spring—that SARS-CoV-2 can behave like an airborne contagion in certain contexts, which has major implications for public health guidance; they responded that, in Sweden, it's a droplet-borne contagion—and that's the only scenario they'll be taking into account in their planning & recs.

A lot of idiots in the UK want us to open up completely to follow what they call "the Swedish model" despite it not being what Sweden has done and despite the fact that the UK is not Sweden. If our virus is a different strain too, that is not something I was aware of - do you have a citation for that?

Please do not follow Sweden's example wrt the pandemic. Feel free to follow Sweden's example wrt paid sick leave, parental leave, unemployment benefits and social security, etc.

[RandBlade]

I'd heard the opposite, that it mutates slower than the flu.

[Wraith]

I'd heard the opposite, that it mutates slower than the flu.

Sorry, I should have said "coronavirus", because that's what was being referred to when I heard the info. At the time they were unsure whether covid-19 would also mutate faster than the flu, and I haven't heard anything either way since.

[RandBlade]

The information I've heard so far is that we're lucky that SARS-CoV-2 is remarkably stable so far and isn't mutating that much.

That's both good and bad. The bad part is that many viruses tend to mutate to being weaker versions of themselves and this isn't doing so. The good part is that it should enable immunity (whether acquired or from a vaccine) to be more durable.

[Flixy]

There are definitely different strains, this is, IIRC how they found that the main breakouts in the USA came from Europe, and that the current wave here has a main source from people going on vacation in e.g. Spain. Don't know if those differences are big enough to have any effect though.

[mahiro]

I thought this was worth sharing.

After spending months denying the dangers of COVID-19, Trump is expressing an emotion aides have rarely seen: fear. On Friday, Trump grew visibly anxious as his fever spiked to 103 fahrenheit and he was administered oxygen at the White House, according to three Republicans close to the White House. Two sources told me Trump experienced heart palpitations on Friday night—possible side effects of the experimental antibody treatment he received. Trump has wondered aloud if he could defeat the disease. “Am I going out like Stan Chera?” Trump has asked aides, referring to his friend, New York real-estate developer Stan Chera, who died of COVID in April.
On Saturday, two sources said Trump was feeling better. But it is difficult to assess the information given the White House's history of lying. According to a source, Chief of Staff Mark Meadows has told Republicans that the next few days will be critical to determine the virus’s outcome. “Meadows has said if Trump can get out of the hospital by Tuesday, then he’s gone through the worst of it. But if he’s still there after Tuesday, the worst is yet to come,” the source told me.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020...house-deflects

[RandBlade]

The question is when did he start to develop symptoms, which it seems hard to get a straight answer from. The rule of thumb seems to be most people have symptoms then recover within about a week then either recover or go south quick after that. Which seems to match what that source is saying, but only if he was already symptomatic by Tuesday (the day of the debate) which would match the 72 hours comment from the doctor too . . . but be highly irresponsible given he then attended the debate and a rally afterwards and other events afterwards too.

[Loki]

Generally speaking, symptoms of that severity are unlikely to simply disappear within a week. People who recover quickly never get this sick to start with. Not to mention Trump's age and obesity. He has at least a 10% chance of not making it and a far higher probability of being symptomatic until the election.

[RandBlade]

There's also a reasonable chance that he wasn't that sick but is a hypochondriac egotist who panicked over the diagnosis and nobody was willing to say no to him.

[Loki]

There are confirmed reports about low oxygen levels and a high fever. He's taking medicine you wouldn't take if you were mildly ill. And it's telling that he's not taking hydroxychloroquine.

[RandBlade]

Twitter Link

[Aimless]

Inaccurate headline, but perhaps that's only fitting given that the theme of the day appears to be "fuck up":

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/technology-54423988

This is a pretty epic fuck-up. My heart goes out to the team responsible for this decision.

[RandBlade]

Remarkable that PHE were using something like an XLS spreadsheet in their legacy system.

PHE have not had a good pandemic. Their systems are getting replaced and the sooner the better.

[gogobongopop]

I don't think it's remarkable that an Excel spreadsheet has been used. Using Excel spreadsheets to input, transfer and read large volumes of data is common practice. Given the power of Excel, and people's familiarity with it, it can be both more effective and cheaper to use it as opposed to developing a bespoke interface.

There's nothing wrong in using it.

What -is- remarkable is that a bug like this has been found in the live environment. It demonstrates a lack of forethought and testing. PHE must take some blame for this, but I'd also hold the test and trace system to account as well for not ensuring adequate non functional testing was performed on the scale they expected.

That would be my guess anyway.

[RandBlade]

It was PHE that was entirely responsible for this. PHE insisted upon centralising the system and were acting as gatekeepers, so tests (which are not centralised) were being sent to PHE then PHE were sending on to Test and Trace. PHE were the only people to collate or know how many people had tested positive so Test and Trace were tracking the information they were given, but the problem with any system is Garbage In, Garbage Out.