Your so-called walk back is a repetition of the stated goal for the export controls. It was never primarily intended as a ban on exports. It was to force AZN to give full disclosure.Originally Posted by RandBlade
Your so-called walk back is a repetition of the stated goal for the export controls. It was never primarily intended as a ban on exports. It was to force AZN to give full disclosure.
Congratulations America
In addition to this, the EU and its member states have pledged nearly €12 billion for the coronavirus global response initiative. But the main issue is that you keep making claims that are simply not true.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
I can never quite make up my mind if he's an idiot or a habitual liar.
Congratulations America
Thanks for the explanations.
Yes it is complex, and fraught with difficulty in such a massive scale-up from zero. I get that.
A small but ... but a but nevertheless ... but they are not a new player to the game. AZN are in the pharma industry, they must know of the potential for these difficulties to manifest, and with an increased potential given the larger scales we're talking here. If their production estimates are that they can deliver x amount in y amount of time, then any sensible management of the situation would surely say we will commit to deliver x/2, to allow contingency for such difficulties, bottlenecks etc which they must be familiar with. You state the same thing, that their timelines are predicated on everything going right. That's crazy in this situation here, no? Always better to underpromise and overdeliver. Failure to deliver, particularly when the situation is so dire and critical, makes everything worse for those impacted in the EU.
I suspect your final paragraph is where they compounded an already crap situation. Given they did overpromise and underdeliver, at least a prudent management of expectations and complete transparency throughout would help mitigate their inability to meet their commitment, and allow the EU lead-up time to seek alternatives.
All in all, it's a big D- See Me After Class for AZN.
Last edited by Timbuk2; 01-30-2021 at 08:54 AM.
The big lesson for everyone is; when you know you can't deliver, put serious effort into managing expectations and don't tell your customer he should feel lucky you're doing anything at all.
The episode does seem to indicate that the UK no longer matters very much to decision makers in Brussels. Even with the somewhat messy way the invocation of article 16 NIP was announced then erased from the directive.
Congratulations America
Twitter Link
This requires clarification. If it is true that Barnier objected before the announcement was made—and if it was made known to him without being made known to representatives of the Irish govt—then anyone responsible for the decision should be asked to resign.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
The problem with that is that the final step to make it official wasn't made.
Also, British media quoting EU officials typically results in reporting far from what was actually said. So I will take the liberty of taking the news with more than a pinch of salt until I see a non British source.
Congratulations America
I dunno, if the objections were explicitly overruled or disregarded, without consultation with Ireland, that to me is a pretty severe blow to credibility. Issues pertaining to the GFA are the most sensitive and important political issues in Ireland; disregarding a member state's foremost political and national security concern—whether due to ignorance, indifference or politics—is a very bad look when set against the messaging that has been front and center throughout the Brexit negotiation process.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
The claim was true. The claim was not pulling weight and that is absolutely true. The figures were close to what I said they were about, and absolutely ridiculous.
But we shouldn't be surprised the entire reason the EU is struggling for vaccines is self inflicted.
No it is a massive A+ for AZN.
They have in less than a year gotten a mass produced vaccine from development to mass production, using standard refrigeration technologies. They have done this to be exported all around the world, including the third world without supercold freezing technologies and will have an unprecedented billions of doses produced this year. They are doing all this entirely not for profit. Just to help mankind eradicate this accursed virus.
The production of this vaccine for the countries that signed up promptly to this not for profit vaccine is rolling out smoothly, whether it be here or India etc
The only reason there are problems are because the EU didn't sign the contract for THREE WHOLE MONTHS after it was ready to be signed. Because they chose to haggle over a not for profit vaccine. In three months time the teething problems will be resolved.
Incidentally PS AZN were aware for the potential for delays which is why they tried to have three whole extra months for production, had the potential for delays in the contract, have followed the notification procedure in the contract properly. They're being scapegoated for others failure. The EU only signed the contract five months ago and they've given the EU notification ten weeks prior to the end of the quarter.
Last edited by RandBlade; 01-30-2021 at 10:51 AM.
How often do you fuck up your budget by 40% and how has that been going for you? The reality is that you were incredibly wrong. You were also wrong about not pulling weight—the EU and its member states have pledged nearly 12 billion EUR for the coronavirus global initiative—roughly 26 EUR per capita towards covid-related support intended to benefit the entire world—and especially those who are least well-off. Not only that, but the EU committed $200 million to CEPI before the pandemic—to help accelerate their work in anticipation of a future pandemic—and roughly $330 million to Gavi before the pandemic. The EU and its member states have been more than pulling their weight, for years—not just when it turned out to be in their immediate self-interest to help make up for a govt killing tens of thousands of people through greed, arrogance and incompetence.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
When you should be close to the 4 billion Biden has done, which if you pro rata for size is what the UK has done too, then yes 0.8 is about 0.5 not 4
Nah the EU has been underfunding GAVI for years. Hence the numbers quoted before, not by me. Prior to the pandemic the only EU member state to consistently fund GAVI and other institutions properly and to meet its 0.7% GDP goal for aid was ... The United Kingdom.
This is asinine. They notified the EU far too late—much later than when they must have known they'd fail to deliver on their end of the deal—and then tried to dodge responsibility by misrepresenting the contract.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
This is of course why I made sure to give a full account instead of only pointing at part of the picture. Is $4 billion more or less than around $14 billion? You tell me, RB, you tell me.
Not just prudent—a contractual obligation. Think everyone involved understood that the targets were unrealistically ambitious, and understood anticipated important risks that were addressed in the contract; AZN had an obligation to notify the Commission so that they could work together to solve or mitigate such problems, if possible.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
You only signed the contract five months ago and they've notified you with ten weeks to spare that there is a problem. Given you only signed it five months ago you haven't left them much slack to fix any yield issues, why would they magically have known months ago there was a problem?
Months ago the contract wasn't even signed yet!!!!
Handy graphix r us
4 is more than <1
The 14 is not Covax and not comparing like for like. If you want to add in all the UKs others and all the USAs others then you can compare like for like.
Which they have done when the yield was low. Just a few months, not even half a year, after you put pen to paper. Months prior to the end of the quarter deadline. When should they have magically known sooner?Not just prudent—a contractual obligation. Think everyone involved understood that the targets were unrealistically ambitious, and understood anticipated important risks that were addressed in the contract; AZN had an obligation to notify the Commission so that they could work together to solve or mitigate such problems, if possible.
And since they were ready to put pen to paper in June whose fault is it the extra months were wasted to make it ambitious?
The bottom line is a few months ago you signed the contract, with a warning the timing was tight and there might be delays. They've let you know, following contractual procedures and a couple of months before the deadline that there will be delays. What sort of magic should have been used to know sooner?
Why are you ranting about "months" when I've consistently said they must have known weeks ago? Not to beat a dead horse but it looks like you haven't read my posts.
Of course, I don't think it's unreasonable to believe they should've anticipated this possibility two months ago. At that time, they were already using several of their facilities at scale—at least to the point of being able to cover 4 million doses for the UK order using unused capacity. If you're expected to deliver 80 million doses over the course of 8 weeks, most of it frontloaded, it'll take you weeks to stock up on sufficient doses of the finished and tested product prior to the start of the period. Or do you think they expected to be able to produce, test and ship 10 million doses a week, starting in February, from factories that were producing only a fraction of that amount in December and early January?
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
The $14 billion is for the coronavirus global initiative, on top of the $850 million boost to COVAX. You're welcome to provide the tally for the UK's equivalent contributions.
There's no magic involved. They were not required to deliver 80 million doses on the day before the end of Q1—they were expected to deliver 80 million doses over the course of two months, with a large stock ready to go upon approval. The yields must have been too low for weeks. I don't know how you fulfill your orders, but if you're supposed to deliver a certain amount over a certain time period, and you take that to mean you can deliver it on the last day of that period, and then tell your customer a few days before that period begins that you'll actually be delivering just 40% of what was expected, I suspect Tim won't hire you again. AZN was expected to be ready to start shipping from a large stock immediately upon approval, with 80 million to be shipped over the course of 2 months.Which they have done when the yield was low. Just a few months, not even half a year, after you put pen to paper. Months prior to the end of the quarter deadline. When should they have magically known sooner?
[...]
The bottom line is a few months ago you signed the contract, with a warning the timing was tight and there might be delays. They've let you know, following contractual procedures and a couple of months before the deadline that there will be delays. What sort of magic should have been used to know sooner?
Clearly they weren't quite ready to put pen to paper if this clownish behavior is indicative of how they were going to handle their obligations.And since they were ready to put pen to paper in June whose fault is it the extra months were wasted to make it ambitious?
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
For someone who claims others don't read Aimless the problem is you misread what has happened and are too pigheaded to admit you were wrong.
You got outraged due to a misapprehension that the doses that have been warned will be delayed were all due this week. It's not true. They were due in a couple of months time.
They have the first initial doses ready to go. What they won't have is 100% of March's and they've given advance notice a couple of months prior to March.
Rather than admit you were wrong, rather than accept a couple of months notice has been given, you keep digging and digging.
Follow your own advice and read.
In a formal sense Ireland did get its word in. It's not going to win a beauty contest though.
Congratulations America
Indeed, and now the EU is going to put it all in the open for all to see. Which is going to make the best efforts argument lose most of its effectiveness in court (in Belgium).
Congratulations America
No they know they haven't got a leg to stand on which is why they are having a meltdown in public.
The EU to Astrazeneca are acting like Trump to Dominion. It is embarrassing.
I really wonder if people bother to talk to you.
Congratulations America
First of all, just two posts ago, you went off on a ridiculous rant attributing something to me that I had not said—another illustration of your inability to read. Just before that, you brought out a number that was misleading—because you don't read. Prior to that, you made claims about the contract that were untrue—because you don't read. Not long ago, you tried to push an outrageous conspiracy theory about when contracts were signed and why—because you don't read. So, in short, to paraphrase Zoolander—you don't read good and don't do other things good too.
They expect to deliver 40% of what they were expected to deliver over the course of the 8-week period. What you—like many unserious businessmen—are having difficulties understanding is that they must have known well in advance there was a high risk that they wouldn't come even remotely close to hitting their target—for the beginning of the period or for the period as a whole—due to low yields. The reason for this is that they needed to have sufficient quantities of drug substance ready and sufficient quantities of finished product filled and finished and ready to go. You can get a good idea of your likelihood of success—or your risk of failure—from your progress at any given point prior to your deadline. If I'm collaborating with others on something that needs to be "done" by a certain date, but where my contribution needs to be at a relatively advanced stage before we get to work, so that we can make steady progress together over the course of that period, I can get a good idea of whether or not I'll be able to hold up my end by looking at where I am long before I'm supposed to start contributing to the collective effort. When you have to study for a huge and very difficult exam, you can get a good idea of how that's likely to go weeks before the exam, based on where you are in your exam prep at that point. There are probably dozens of such examples of familiar situations in which you can reasonably be expected to anticipate risk of failure well in advance of that failure. One situation that should be especially familiar is covid outbreaks, but we have seen over the course of the past year that you have a blind spot when it comes to that particular issue because you don't want to acknowledge your govt. doing things that keep getting more people killed. Drug manufacturing is complex, with many unpredictable variables—but, in this situation, that complexity and unpredictability only makes it easier as well as more important to anticipate a high risk of failure to hit a specific time and yield target.You got outraged due to a misapprehension that the doses that have been warned will be delayed were all due this week. It's not true. They were due in a couple of months time.
They have the first initial doses ready to go. What they won't have is 100% of March's and they've given advance notice a couple of months prior to March.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Yes drug manufacturing is a complex process and it takes time to ramp up. Hence more comes towards the end of ramping up than at the start, it's not linear. They've done that, they've found a problem - a problem that hit the UK and led to a 3 month delay for the UK too - and have followed proper notification procedures a couple of months before the product was due.
The same thing happened here too, we accepted it and moved on we didn't throw our toys out of the pram like some deranged Trumpists.
Well, except that they are still a pharma company. As we all know, vaccines are a low-margin item already and they, like pretty much everyone else, have already agreed that these production runs are being sold at-cost. That typically does not factor in unsold doses from the run. Would the countries have given them a blank check to over-produce and buy excess stock from overdelivery? If not, then the pharma company is eating more losses (though this would be a bigger concern for Pfizer with its vaccines storage requirements), and at some point, an earlier point for their beancounters than for us to be sure, that stops being reasonable behavior even during a pandemic.
Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"
4gogo. I was on the lookout for news about the situation and this is the result. Public broadcast newscast: item 3 was about the slowness of vaccination, problems with production was mentioned in general terms, neither AZN nor UK were mentioned. One national newspaper reported on the 'overenthousiastic way the Commission was dealing with the AZN issue. A second national newspaper reported on the excitement in the UK, in a not necessarily sympathetic way.
Congratulations America
Interesting, thanks.
The UK is wetting its pants here. It's all too exciting. Leaving is now fully justified by everyone. An act of war was declared and we called out the Home Guard in celebration.
We're completely ignoring that the EU backtracked, admitted their mistake and rectified it within a couple of hours. We in the UK are blessed with leadership that never makes a mistake and never u-turns that we don't know how to cope, so we just focus on the declaration of war.
We don't talk about our PM threatening to invoke article 16 only a few weeks ago, and we've erased the voting records of those PMs who voted to break international law. Twice.
The country is finally united. Nothing like a good war to put aside that pesky critical thinking thing we're usually so keen on.
Let's face it, you could do with a distraction from the English Trump killing tens of thousands of people due to greed and incompetence. That sort of thing is depressing.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote