covid-19

[wiggin]

I really don't understand the big push for patent waivers. It's not the rate limiting step, tech transfer is. The big 4 companies that are currently scaling up production of their Western approved vaccines are having trouble even doing internal scaling and transfer to new mfg facilities; doing so to an external entity with different institutional knowledge and quality systems is several times more challenging.

Some of the vaccines coming down the pipeline are made in more traditional (albeit slower) ways and may be more amenable to rapid transfer. JNJ and AZN currently are close enough to existing technologies that they could be transferred or licensed without too much trouble to another major and experienced industry partner - things that indeed have happened with e.g. Serum Institute of India (we've also seen lending/pooling of mfg resources from other industry players even without explicit licensing). But even with 'easy' JNJ and AZN technologies, going to a newbie is a recipe for wasted effort and huge yield/quality issues.

But the mRNA vaccines? No way in hell that anyone is going to be able to easily transfer this technology or replicate the technology without help. It's new and incredibly hard. Hell, Moderna said last year that they weren't going to enforce their patents on the vaccine but no one has been lining up to make it because without a huge amount of help from Moderna you're not going to be able to replicate it.

This is not like a traditional small molecule drug with a single API of known structure you need to replicate and throw in some excipients. This is essentially a complex biologic and delivery system that would take years and many billions of dollars of investment to replicate without active involvement of the inventors. And compelling tech transfer is likely a much tougher sell than waiving patent restrictions. Honestly, the main reason Pfizer partnered with BioNTech probably had less to do with trying to make money off the vaccine itself (though it hasn't been bad for their bottom line or their public image) but because it allowed them to 'freely' get access to very sophisticated mRNA delivery systems that are going to be the basis for an entire class of drugs (not just vaccines) in the coming years. Moderna and Pfizer aren't just going to give away that kind of specialized tribal knowledge, and patents aren't very useful for replicating that kind of knowledge.

For a non-drug but relevant example: my own company is making an entirely new class of materials. We have IP, sure, and we aggressively pursue a strong IP portfolio to try to minimize the proliferation of 'me too' products. But our biggest protections are our trade secrets - if I was handed the final product along with every scrap of publicly available information about my company's technology, I am not sure that I would be able to replicate it in any reasonable time frame.

It makes sense to focus on things that will help in concrete ways: improving supply chains for raw materials, working on partnerships to pool mfg resources and/or licensure, encouraging tech transfer when appropriate. Waiving patents doesn't really help all that much and just sets up a contentious and adversarial relationship when you absolutely need these companies to play ball in scaling global mfg of these vaccines.

[LittleFuzzy]

I really don't understand the big push for patent waivers. It's not the rate limiting step, tech transfer is. The big 4 companies that are currently scaling up production of their Western approved vaccines are having trouble even doing internal scaling and transfer to new mfg facilities; doing so to an external entity with different institutional knowledge and quality systems is several times more challenging.

Some of the vaccines coming down the pipeline are made in more traditional (albeit slower) ways and may be more amenable to rapid transfer. JNJ and AZN currently are close enough to existing technologies that they could be transferred or licensed without too much trouble to another major and experienced industry partner - things that indeed have happened with e.g. Serum Institute of India (we've also seen lending/pooling of mfg resources from other industry players even without explicit licensing). But even with 'easy' JNJ and AZN technologies, going to a newbie is a recipe for wasted effort and huge yield/quality issues.

A) many aren't aware of the complexities in production. They should be but aren't. B) you're forgetting how much graft potential there is in poorly-thought-out investment projects like this.

[wiggin]

I'm less confused about politicians who don't know anything and more about the NGO and public health types who've been pushing for it - they should know that this isn't really the long pole.

[Aimless]

A) many aren't aware of the complexities in production. They should be but aren't. B) you're forgetting how much graft potential there is in poorly-thought-out investment projects like this.

I don't think the expectation is that developing countries are gonna reverse-engineer the vaccine production processes from scratch; the hope is that waivers will help remove obstacles such as licensing requirements. In the short-to-medium term, this would help eg. India and its neighbouring countries start up production at more sites, which can then help supply the region with vaccines more effectively. Most of the requisite knowledge is already available in the region, as companies like AstraZeneca and J&J have already started up production in India, partnering with proven local biotech firms; retasking other plants in the region to produce finished vaccine product is about as feasible as it is to do so in eg. Europe, and it will be useful to do so even if it takes several more months to get production rolling—because these extremely populous regions will need to keep producing and administering vaccines at breakneck speed at least for the remainder of the year, and probably well into 2022, even after the global pandemic is determined to be over. In the medium-to-long term, the same freedom from licensing requirements would help these countries respond more swiftly to future outbreaks, forestalling future disasters driven by new variants. Wiggins's company and their product line are a very different matter, for a large number of reasons.

[Aimless]

In other news, all members of a Swedish choir—originally founded to save students from dying of boredom during a cholera lockdown—contract covid after a church performance during a pandemic involving a respiratory virus whose transmission is facilitated by loud singing in enclosed spaces.

[Hazir]

In other news, all members of a Swedish choir—originally founded to save students from dying of boredom during a cholera lockdown—contract covid after a church performance during a pandemic involving a respiratory virus whose transmission is facilitated by loud singing in enclosed spaces.

That's about how smart I think Swedes are. It's probably also why Volvo's have such high safety standards.

[Khendraja'aro]

I don't think the expectation is that developing countries are gonna reverse-engineer the vaccine production processes from scratch; the hope is that waivers will help remove obstacles such as licensing requirements. In the short-to-medium term, this would help eg. India and its neighbouring countries start up production at more sites, which can then help supply the region with vaccines more effectively. Most of the requisite knowledge is already available in the region, as companies like AstraZeneca and J&J have already started up production in India, partnering with proven local biotech firms; retasking other plants in the region to produce finished vaccine product is about as feasible as it is to do so in eg. Europe, and it will be useful to do so even if it takes several more months to get production rolling—because these extremely populous regions will need to keep producing and administering vaccines at breakneck speed at least for the remainder of the year, and probably well into 2022, even after the global pandemic is determined to be over. In the medium-to-long term, the same freedom from licensing requirements would help these countries respond more swiftly to future outbreaks, forestalling future disasters driven by new variants. Wiggins's company and their product line are a very different matter, for a large number of reasons.

Licensing requirements are a very minor matter in this - and should also not be done away with, for quality reasons alone.

You really do not want people pushing out vaccines who should not be trusted to be capable to do so.

Just look at the latest Sputnik debacle for an example where Brazil found replicating vector viruses - do you want something similar to that happen on a larger basis? Keep in mind that any incident would massively erode trust in vaccines who'd otherwise be considered rather safe.

[Aimless]

Licensing requirements are a very minor matter in this - and should also not be done away with, for quality reasons alone.

You really do not want people pushing out vaccines who should not be trusted to be capable to do so.

Just look at the latest Sputnik debacle for an example where Brazil found replicating vector viruses - do you want something similar to that happen on a larger basis? Keep in mind that any incident would massively erode trust in vaccines who'd otherwise be considered rather safe.

That is primarily a regulatory issue, not a commercial licensing issue. Plants would still have to be authorized by regulators, and the products would still have to pass appropriate quality control. The furore surrounding the reports of replicating viruses in the second dose of Sputnik concerns product imported from outside Brazil, and the take-home message there is that the Brazilian regulator detected the problems in question—and responded by blocking the import of that vaccine product.

[wiggin]

Licensing requirements are a very minor matter in this - and should also not be done away with, for quality reasons alone.

You really do not want people pushing out vaccines who should not be trusted to be capable to do so.

Just look at the latest Sputnik debacle for an example where Brazil found replicating vector viruses - do you want something similar to that happen on a larger basis? Keep in mind that any incident would massively erode trust in vaccines who'd otherwise be considered rather safe.

I want to qualify your assertion here a bit. In principle there is no reason why licensing or IP waivers should directly affect the quality of an off-brand vaccine; in theory this has nothing to do with licensing and is controlled by the relevant regulatory body. Of course, it is likely that in the absence of explicit tech transfer there would be a lot of time wasted figuring out how to make it at high yield and meeting appropriate quality standards, which is also independent of an IP waiver.

There is a reasonable concern that quality may become an issue if vaccines are produced without tech transfer in some countries just for domestic use, and thus are not subject to appropriate controls by regulatory agencies with sufficient expertise and resources to properly evaluate safety and efficacy. There's also a risk of clinical trials of a 'me too' generic not being as robust or well controlled as those by many of the first line manufacturers (though, to be fair, AZN's trial was a bit of a mess). But I think it's critical to separate these issues from the IP waiver issue.

Temporary IP waivers for Covid vaccines/treatments/diagnostics on their own don't really hurt the pharma companies or the broader global IP regime that provides incentives for innovation. On the other hand, they also don't really help get more vaccine produced in anything resembling a timely manner; this is one limiting factor but not the major one. It's a nice move but one that's largely a side show to the real issues.

[Khendraja'aro]

That is primarily a regulatory issue, not a commercial licensing issue. Plants would still have to be authorized by regulators, and the products would still have to pass appropriate quality control. The furore surrounding the reports of replicating viruses in the second dose of Sputnik concerns product imported from outside Brazil, and the take-home message there is that the Brazilian regulator detected the problems in question—and responded by blocking the import of that vaccine product.

It's a complete non-issue right from the start as BioNTech, for example, also already reduced or waived their license fees. It's political grandstanding - costs them nothing, makes them look good but has no actual effect whatsoever.

It's also hypocritical as the US was one of the countries which blocked all vaccine exports. Even those they don't use themselves.

[Aimless]

It's a complete non-issue right from the start as BioNTech, for example, also already reduced or waived their license fees. It's political grandstanding - costs them nothing, makes them look good but has no actual effect whatsoever.

Okay, you understand, of course, that fees are not the only aspect of licensing that presents an obstacle, and that licensing agreements still have to be negotiated? And that BioNTech's product is just one of several candidates—and, from the perspective of developing countries, not even the most interesting candidate?

It's also hypocritical as the US was one of the countries which blocked all vaccine exports. Even those they don't use themselves.

The US's refusal to export its stockpile of AZN's vaccine may well have been the result of a contractual restriction which had to be renegotiated before the doses could be exported. Even if that had not been the case, it's not relevant—the number of doses concerned was comparatively small (compared to the global demand, that is), they were released, and the US is now pushing for a waiver; as hypocrisy goes, it's not the most impactful example.

[Hazir]

The EU has decided to not order any vaccine doses from AZN. That effectively means that the vaccine will no longer be used at all after this month.

[RandBlade]

One amusing fact after French and EU leaders and their fanbois lied earlier this year about catching up with the UK on vaccines - by misleading and dishonestly using "alternative facts" of how many were "fully vaccinated" when they knew that the UK had deliberately stopped doing second doses: The UK now has not just a considerably higher amount fully vaccinated than the EU and its member states does, but the UK in fact now has as much of its population "fully vaccinated" as France and some other countries do with just one vaccine.

France: 26.0% with one dose, 11.5% with two doses.
UK: 52.1% with one dose, 26.0% with two doses.

No wonder the liars like Macron, von der Leyen, Comedy Dave and those here that bought into those lies have dropped the issue completely now. Turns out that lying to people is not an alternative to actually vaccinating them.

[Aimless]

We've now had 2 confirmed cases of VITT—and one strongly suspected case that hasn't yet been confirmed—after vaccination with AZN's vaccine, at my clinic. Very poor outcomes so far, difficult to manage even with an agreed-upon protocol and excellent support.

[Khendraja'aro]

Okay, you understand, of course, that fees are not the only aspect of licensing that presents an obstacle, and that licensing agreements still have to be negotiated? And that BioNTech's product is just one of several candidates—and, from the perspective of developing countries, not even the most interesting candidate?

In the context of patents, licenses are the only thing that matters.

That's what my point is about: Patents only matter for licenses.

Any other obstacles are not magically handwaved away by doing away with patents.

The US's refusal to export its stockpile of AZN's vaccine may well have been the result of a contractual restriction which had to be renegotiated before the doses could be exported.

Yeah, right. And them also blocking the export of base materials for production of vaccines was also only out of the goodness of their hearts.

It's funny how concerned you are about contractual obligations, though, when the US singlehandedly decided to void contractual obligations of other countries by going for a "patents don't matter"-route. They can't have it both ways. Either they care about contracts (and then patents stand) or they don't.

[RandBlade]

Oh dear. Who could have guessed the Russians shouldn't be trusted on blind faith? https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...899-0/fulltext


This is really dodgy.

[RandBlade]

Fantastic news, "surge vaccinations" beginning now to finish vaccine rollout in areas with cases still:

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Based on the standard rollout by age its currently down to 38 year olds being offered the vaccine, but given that the virus is almost wiped out in most of the nation I think surge vaccinations in places like Bolton, Blackburn etc with higher cases should be prioritised to get all adults done ASAP.

[Hazir]

First Pfizer in. Second in 5 weeks.

[Aimless]

Not sure this is true. Guessing some may have been vaccinated in secret

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All those elderly black Republicans are really screwing with the vaccination efforts:

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[Aimless]

Sigh.

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Sad to see this misconception still refuses to die. If anything, lockdowns can be a way to reduce the healthcare debt of the pandemic—by helping to end local outbreaks sooner and more decisively, thus ultimately helping healthcare providers in those areas return to normal operations more quickly. The healthcare debt that's been built is—largely—not a result of people not being able to go to the pub; it's a result of resources being—understandably, necessarily—diverted away from elective procedures to acute covid-related care, and, also to a great extent, a result of policies trying to minimize risk of infection while providing or receiving care. Both of those issues are directly related to the local covid situation in each resp. region.

[RandBlade]

Sigh.

Great to see the 17 May unlocking occur today, it should have happened at least a month ago but better late than never.

The 21 June unlocking must occur, no delays.

It is a load of ill-conceived bollocks to suggest delays are happening now because the NHS is busy dealing with Covid patients, there are fewer than 1k Covid-positive patients in hospital across the entire United Kingdom combined - and that could include some in hospital with Covid, rather than from Covid; while reliable data on this is hard to come by it seems that already most Covid hospitalisations are happening amongst those eligible to the vaccine who had declined to take it - despite take-up being 95% in eligible age groups so far nationwide.

A year ago, or in January, then a lockdown was medically required but not now. Now lockdown is causing the delays, not preventing it. Social distancing has vastly reduced capacity in the NHS. As a result now we are having relatively empty hospitals nationwide while the backlog grows - that was claimed but false at the end of last year but its true now.

We need to not be held hostage by a teeny minority of antivaxxers meaning that we maintain social distancing and lockdown and reduced capacity to ensure antivaxxers are protected from their idiocy. We need to continue giving the vaccines to those who weren't even especially vulnerable in the first place (like myself, I got mine nearly 3 weeks ago now despite in 30s and not being on a vulnerable list) and lifting all social distancing requirements. We need to return to 100% capacity and start dealing with other, real problems.

Ask medics who work in the NHS, their throughput has been dramatically reduced because of social distancing etc which is what the 21 June date is about. Without lifting that, it won't be possible to clear the backlog and we'll continue with relatively empty hospitals.

If a few more antivaxxers die as a result then that is the consequences of their choices. We should continue to educate them and offer them vaccines, but we don't lockdown to prevent people taking drugs or tobacco, nor should we lockdown to save antivaxxers.

[Ziggy Stardust]

We need to not be held hostage by a teeny minority of antivaxxers [...]

If a few more antivaxxers die as a result then that is the consequences of their choices. We should continue to educate them and offer them vaccines, but we don't lockdown to prevent people taking drugs or tobacco, nor should we lockdown to save antivaxxers.

Be aware that this goes beyond anti-vaxxers. There aren't that many anti-vaxxers, but what they have been able to achieve with their disinformation is that non-anti-vaxxers started doubting. And they bring sane sounding reasoning.

They worry about long term effects, about testing, about cutting corners, they have heard stories these anti-vaxxers spread. So even though they think vaccines are a great development in for instance battling polio, they have been made cautious by the nonsense the anti-vaxxer movement have spread with regard to specifically the Covid vaccines.

So, no, they don't think the government is trying to do things to them, no they don't believe in micro chips. But when they try to research this, they'll get conflicting information, which makes them cautious.

I know, because I have been trying to counter the disinformation campaign for some friends of mine, who are reasonable people, but have been made unsure.

[Aimless]

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As a rule, asking Matt Hancock seems to be a surefire way of getting the wrong info, most likely because he simply doesn't know. Hopefully, civil servants will be able to provide the media with the information being sought.

[RandBlade]

Be aware that this goes beyond anti-vaxxers. There aren't that many anti-vaxxers, but what they have been able to achieve with their disinformation is that non-anti-vaxxers started doubting. And they bring sane sounding reasoning.

They worry about long term effects, about testing, about cutting corners, they have heard stories these anti-vaxxers spread. So even though they think vaccines are a great development in for instance battling polio, they have been made cautious by the nonsense the anti-vaxxer movement have spread with regard to specifically the Covid vaccines.

So, no, they don't think the government is trying to do things to them, no they don't believe in micro chips. But when they try to research this, they'll get conflicting information, which makes them cautious.

I know, because I have been trying to counter the disinformation campaign for some friends of mine, who are reasonable people, but have been made unsure.

Indeed in some countries that worse than others though. Especially those countries which have had preposterous lies about vaccines by those in charge mocking their efficacy, or halting vaccine rollouts when the science didn't advise it.

Thankfully in this country there's been a well-organised campaign that has seen only a tiny proportion of people refuse the vaccine, which makes a majority of those being hospitalised being those who refused the vaccine really stand out like a sore thumb. Fewer than 5% of those eligible have refused it.

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As a rule, asking Matt Hancock seems to be a surefire way of getting the wrong info, most likely because he simply doesn't know. Hopefully, civil servants will be able to provide the media with the information being sought.

Yeah, why would anyone suggest positivity was lower in India?

Who could possibly think that Bangladeshi positivity was 3x higher than Indian positivity from that data?

PS LOL at Aimless editting in an excuse Tweet for Conway 34 minutes after I posted this reply. We can see the timestamp don't you know. Just because Conway was thick and you were too doesn't make editting in excuses for him make it look any smarter. The data is that Indian positivity was much lower, Conway just isn't very good at numbers and this is far from the first time he's looked for a story when there was a simpler explanation. Far from the first time you've fallen for one too. You're just constitutionally incapable of admitting things are going right in the UK are you? That chip on your shoulder is going to make you a Hunchback if you're not careful.

[RandBlade]

Comment from a Labour-supporting Doctor from Leicester, who despises Boris and the Tories, on a different political website I go to.

There is no way that we can make a dent in the hospital waiting list, or even attenuate it's growth if we have to maintain social distancing etc. It is a major drag on productivity. It is like wading in treacle trying to get anything done. Exhausting and unproductive.

Everyone sane knows that the only way to get a start on the waiting list is to proceed with the 21 June end to social distancing to allow productivity to get back to normal.

Hopefully "Independent Sage" and any other headbanging Zero Covidiots who wish to keep us locked down indefinitely get ignored.

[RandBlade]

While media clickbait and "Indy Sage" Zero Covidiots lose their freaking minds, some context.

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[Aimless]

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As a rule, asking Matt Hancock seems to be a surefire way of getting the wrong info, most likely because he simply doesn't know. Hopefully, civil servants will be able to provide the media with the information being sought.

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Very unfortunate. Hancock was clearly not prepared/properly briefed, which is par for the course for this bunch of lying bunglers.

[RandBlade]

Nothing unfortunate and no lies. He never said there was a ban on direct flights.

In case you missed it the UK has a large Indian diaspora living here and people are entitled to fly home, subject to quarantining.

I know your bitter and twisted hatred of Britain makes you want something to go wrong, despite the fact the situation here is one of the best in the entire planet - but you really should stop scraping the bottom of the barrel or buying what Zero Covidiots are selling.

[RandBlade]

70% vaccinated now.
Nearly 40% double-vaccinated.
Cases down
Deaths down
Admissions down.

"But India" go the hysterical media and Zero Covidiots. Put a fork in this pandemic, its done.

[Ominous Gamer]

Got my 2nd shot yesterday. Arm is on fire, but no 3rd eye or anything yet.