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Thread: covid-19

  1. #3301
    Janssen begins shipments to EU, expecting 55m doses by the end of June. Haven't exported from NL to US since beginning of April, so it's likely they've found some other way to address any issues that might've arisen from the 15m US doses that were inadvertently ruined recently. Will be interesting to see how this one fares, given likely heightened scrutiny due to the AZN-vaccine's side effects.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  2. #3302
    Conservative regional govt. in Stockholm tasked a private company with administering tens of thousands of doses, of which it turns out 2.5% have been discarded.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  3. #3303
    UK opened up vaccinations to over 45s this week.

    Booked 1st dose next week, and 2nd dose 12 weeks later.
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    It's actually the original French billion, which is bi-million, which is a million to the power of 2. We adopted the word, and then they changed it, presumably as revenge for Crecy and Agincourt, and then the treasonous Americans adopted the new French usage and spread it all over the world. And now we have to use it.

    And that's Why I'm Voting Leave.

  4. #3304
    Great news! Happy for you.

    Lockdown starting to be lifted from this week, but I'm annoyed at the farcically slow pace of it. From this week "non-essential" shops can all reopen, hair dressers etc, but hospitality can only reopen outdoors which isn't that great in England in April. Still illegal to meet up with other people indoors which is insane, I want to visit my grandparents who received both vaccines months ago but its still illegal.

    Going to take another 5 weeks before its legal to meet others at home indoors, or for hospitality to reopen indoors.

    Case numbers, deaths and hospitalisations are all extremely low now, R is low, and all of the originally identified vulnerable groups which accounted for over 99% of deaths have now been vaccinated already. We should be bringing forward the 17 May next step to no later than 3 weeks time (which will be when all over 50s vaccinations will be 'active' by), but quid pro quo should be postponing reopening the border for tourists going either way until case rates are down to UK levels elsewhere.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  5. #3305
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  6. #3306
    Idiots.

    Meanwhile the US 7-day average of Covid deaths is 985.

    "An abundance of caution" does not mean stopping vaccinations because of one in a million chance of getting a blood clot. Give a warning that there might be a one in a million chance of a very rare side effect and move on.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  7. #3307
    There's already a shortage of J&J from their idiotic warehouse fuckup so this "pause" is nothing but lip service. However, unless the other 2 options are also causing the same rare reaction the lipservice isn't unwarranted considering our pace of vaccinations.

    All 6 cases have been in women 18-48. If they can figure that out then yeah, I see no reason to not issue a pause to that range for J&J and push those people to the other options.
    Last edited by Ominous Gamer; 04-13-2021 at 11:58 AM.
    "In a field where an overlooked bug could cost millions, you want people who will speak their minds, even if they’re sometimes obnoxious about it."

  8. #3308
    If every medicine with a one in a million chance of side effects was withdrawn, we wouldn't have many medicines left.

    When a thousand people a day are dying on average from the plague in the USA, the cost/benefit ratio of using whatever vaccines you do have is not rocket science. More die every single day in the USA currently than would get a (mainly non-fatal) blood clot if you vaccinated every single American with either Astrazeneca or J&J. More people died in America in the past week alone from Covid than would on this data get a (mainly non-fatal) blood clot if you vaccinated every single person on the planet with either Astrazeneca or J&J.

    Very rare side effects from taking aspirin can include kidney failure, bleeding on the brain, strokes and death.

    Educate people as to why the benefits outweigh the risks, don't throw the baby out with the bathwater or try to pretend that medications don't have side effects.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  9. #3309
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Educate people as to why the benefits outweigh the risks, don't throw the baby out with the bathwater or try to pretend that medications don't have side effects.
    Considering the context and timing, that appears to be what they are doing.
    "In a field where an overlooked bug could cost millions, you want people who will speak their minds, even if they’re sometimes obnoxious about it."

  10. #3310
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    There's already a shortage of J&J from their idiotic warehouse fuckup so this "pause" is nothing but lip service. However, unless the other 2 options are also causing the same rare reaction the lipservice isn't unwarranted considering our pace of vaccinations.

    All 6 cases have been in women 18-48. If they can figure that out then yeah, I see no reason to not issue a pause to that range for J&J and push those people to the other options.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Considering the context and timing, that appears to be what they are doing.
    Yes, this is not an unexpected approach to pharmacovigilance—although access to abundant supplies of Pfizer's and Moderna's shots may well have tipped the balance in favour of a pause. The pause also allows for the dissemination of knowledge about eg. treatment protocols for managing serious side-effects. The important point here is that regulators in a large number of developed nations—with wildly disparate political contexts & interests—are approaching the issue in similar ways, calling into question inane claims about the decisions being politically motivated. If one's thesis rests on the assumption of insanity/idiocy on the part of regulators in pretty much every developed western nation, alternative and more plausible explanations look much more appealing in comparison.
    Last edited by Aimless; 04-13-2021 at 01:20 PM.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  11. #3311
    All medications have side effects and very rare side effects only come to light in Phase IV, but one thing that has been remarkable with this being essentially a highly publicised Phase IV we're in right now is just how varied and differing the responses by the various regulators (and politicians) have been. They haven't been remotely similar at all in their actions and that is quite remarkable.

    Some regulators clearly know their stuff and have been very wise throughout the process. Especially to date the MHRA and the EMA. The EMA authorised vaccines and since they were authorised never called for a halt on their use and have continued to say the benefits of the vaccine greatly outweigh any very rare side effects, which is entirely smart and responsible. The MHRA authorised vaccines, never called for a halt on their use either, but when the data changed and prevalence became very low they said the risks could outweigh the benefits just to one particular cohort so stop using it for that cohort while continuing to use it for others. Both very sane, responsible regulators.

    The FDA have acted foolishly OTOH in halting the use of J&J altogether, rather than following the EMA's path of saying the benefits still outweigh the risks, or the MHRA's path of warning about side effects and recommending it to the higher risk of Covid, lower risk of side effects elderly instead. I feel some sympathy for the FDA as America has a very vocal antivaxx community but the "abundance of caution" will cost lives pandering to those idiots.

    Then you get the outright politicisation and mendacity in fucking up regulations by the likes of Macron etc: The EMA approved a vaccine for all ages but instead that got overridden to say to refuse to give it to the elderly, the most vulnerable against Covid. Outright inexcusable stupidity there - he even called the vaccine "quasi-ineffective" to top it off. Then that stupidity was followed up by a serious of calamitous unforced errors - all along the EMA have continued to give the advice of "use the vaccine" and like a headless chicken that's been changed to "pause the usage" "unpause" "pause the usage" "only give it to the elderly (whom we originally said not to give it to)". Thousands of preventable deaths or more have probably been caused by the delays to the rollout this caused.

    Some regulators are acting calmly and professionally. Many others have been badly politicised, have led to thousands of unnecessary deaths due to unnecessary halts to the rollout of the vaccines and really need to be reformed to learn better from the EMA and MHRA etc on how to do this properly without politicisation.

    What's remarkable is that some antivaxxers have jumped on the calm and measured way the MHRA, EMA etc have sensibly responded to the side effects issue as a justification for either refusing the vaccine or as a justification for the inexcusably politicised stop/starting and other bullshit that have caused unnecessary deaths during a pandemic.

    It would be good if all regulators could follow the lead of the calm, rational ones rather than being stupidly politicised or just plain stupid.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  12. #3312
    Oh FFS.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  13. #3313
    FDA & CDC briefing:



    Simplified int'l protocol:

    https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/...itguidance.pdf

    Patients and physicians in third-world countries will be in a bind, due to limited access to diagnostic tests as well as to expensive treatments, but they can at least lower their risk of making things worse.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  14. #3314
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    All medications have side effects and very rare side effects only come to light in Phase IV, but one thing that has been remarkable with this being essentially a highly publicised Phase IV we're in right now is just how varied and differing the responses by the various regulators (and politicians) have been. They haven't been remotely similar at all in their actions and that is quite remarkable.

    Some regulators clearly know their stuff and have been very wise throughout the process. Especially to date the MHRA and the EMA. The EMA authorised vaccines and since they were authorised never called for a halt on their use and have continued to say the benefits of the vaccine greatly outweigh any very rare side effects, which is entirely smart and responsible. The MHRA authorised vaccines, never called for a halt on their use either, but when the data changed and prevalence became very low they said the risks could outweigh the benefits just to one particular cohort so stop using it for that cohort while continuing to use it for others. Both very sane, responsible regulators.

    The FDA have acted foolishly OTOH in halting the use of J&J altogether, rather than following the EMA's path of saying the benefits still outweigh the risks, or the MHRA's path of warning about side effects and recommending it to the higher risk of Covid, lower risk of side effects elderly instead. I feel some sympathy for the FDA as America has a very vocal antivaxx community but the "abundance of caution" will cost lives pandering to those idiots.

    Then you get the outright politicisation and mendacity in fucking up regulations by the likes of Macron etc: The EMA approved a vaccine for all ages but instead that got overridden to say to refuse to give it to the elderly, the most vulnerable against Covid. Outright inexcusable stupidity there - he even called the vaccine "quasi-ineffective" to top it off. Then that stupidity was followed up by a serious of calamitous unforced errors - all along the EMA have continued to give the advice of "use the vaccine" and like a headless chicken that's been changed to "pause the usage" "unpause" "pause the usage" "only give it to the elderly (whom we originally said not to give it to)". Thousands of preventable deaths or more have probably been caused by the delays to the rollout this caused.

    Some regulators are acting calmly and professionally. Many others have been badly politicised, have led to thousands of unnecessary deaths due to unnecessary halts to the rollout of the vaccines and really need to be reformed to learn better from the EMA and MHRA etc on how to do this properly without politicisation.

    What's remarkable is that some antivaxxers have jumped on the calm and measured way the MHRA, EMA etc have sensibly responded to the side effects issue as a justification for either refusing the vaccine or as a justification for the inexcusably politicised stop/starting and other bullshit that have caused unnecessary deaths during a pandemic.

    It would be good if all regulators could follow the lead of the calm, rational ones rather than being stupidly politicised or just plain stupid.
    Rand, that's an awful lot of text. Considering the entire thing literally doesn't express any idea more than "some people are wise and smart and sageful and intelligent. They agreed with my own wholly uneducated opinion. Other people are stupid, cretinous dullards. They disagreed with my own wholly uneducated opnion," do you think that maybe next time, you could pad your post a bit less?
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

  15. #3315
    Fair point (about it being a lot of text).

    TL;DR - It is interesting how very different the responses by regulators and politicians across the West have been.

    They aren't approaching this in a similar path at all and it is quite interesting to note the alternative paths taken.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  16. #3316
    Incidentally of the various paths taken, since you say I support the MHRA/EMA paths because it matches my own opinion, based on your own independent opinion which if any of the very different paths would you prefer? Which, if any, would you think is foolish?

    EMA - "Benefits outweigh risks"
    MHRA - "Benefits outweigh risks, except for this group, so don't used for this group, everyone else continue to use"
    FDA - "There's some risk though lower than the benefits, stop using it for now"
    Macron etc (against EMA advice) - "Do not use it for the elderly. Stop using it. Start using it again. Stop using it again. Only use for the elderly".
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  17. #3317
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Incidentally of the various paths taken, since you say I support the MHRA/EMA paths because it matches my own opinion, based on your own independent opinion which if any of the very different paths would you prefer? Which, if any, would you think is foolish?

    EMA - "Benefits outweigh risks"
    MHRA - "Benefits outweigh risks, except for this group, so don't used for this group, everyone else continue to use"
    FDA - "There's some risk though lower than the benefits, stop using it for now"
    Macron etc (against EMA advice) - "Do not use it for the elderly. Stop using it. Start using it again. Stop using it again. Only use for the elderly".

    I'm not sure. Is there a path where you don't heap superlatives on people you are in no position to really evaluate, after they've agreed with you, and pejoratives on similar people after they've disagreed with you? Because in typical fashion, you seem to be missing the point. The path is irrelevant.
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

  18. #3318
    When very fundamental civil liberties are being suspended due to the threat of a virus that is killing thousands of people a day, the path taken is not irrelevant.

    If the path is so irrelevant then lift lockdowns immediately and let people choose their own actions of their own free choice. Because clearly the pandemic is over if the path out is irrelevant, so there is no longer a justification to restrict people's civil liberties.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  19. #3319
    It's irrelevant to the subject of my post. Let me try again.

    Gosh Mr Randblade, I don't know. If I choose a path, is it required that I call those choosing other paths foolish at best, while praising the intelligence, education, sagacity, noble humanitarian bearing, and general dilf/milf-itude of those who also selected the path I did? Because I don't feel anyone on this board is in a position to do those things (except to an extent with Macron since he's a just a politician). It just seems a little over the top, sir, particularly when, as in your case, you've previously castigated them and spoken pejorative of their standing on those same qualities when they've made calls you disagreed with in the recent past.
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

  20. #3320
    Is it required? Pretty much, this is the internet afterall.

    Though as it happens I'm not sure I have castigated the EMA or the FDA before - in fact I'm not sure if I've ever castigated the EMA, it is the politicians that have earned my criticism. The EMA have surprised me with their capability but they, like the MHRA, seem to be operating independently of politics. Unlike some others which I have criticised, the politicised ones.

    Macron OTOH yes it pretty much goes with the territory. He has messed this up consistently and why should he and his stupid decisions not be subject to scrutiny?

    PS while the paths taken have been wildly different its also worth noting how they've been presented. The MHRA stopping vaccinations for under-30s based on the data was announced by the MHRA at a Press Conference with the data. Macron stopping the vaccine rollout was announced by Macron - not the EMA or any other authority.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  21. #3321
    Senior Member
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    You seem to not understand the difference between advising and deciding.
    Congratulations America

  22. #3322
    The French, having changed their dosing strategy from 4 weeks to 6 weeks, are now changing it to 6 months between first and second dose.

    Good to see countries putting their pride aside and learning from elsewhere (especially after all the negative comments right from the top they've made) but 6 months instead of 3 is brave. Good luck to them.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  23. #3323
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  24. #3324
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    The French, having changed their dosing strategy from 4 weeks to 6 weeks, are now changing it to 6 months between first and second dose.

    Good to see countries putting their pride aside and learning from elsewhere (especially after all the negative comments right from the top they've made) but 6 months instead of 3 is brave. Good luck to them.
    Why would you describe it as brave? It's taking your argument to its logical conclusion.
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  25. #3325
    Quote Originally Posted by wiggin View Post
    Why would you describe it as brave? It's taking your argument to its logical conclusion.
    Its brave because they were petrified of doing anything original when this was an issue earlier. They could now take the safe option of copying others that have gone before them knowing it works and there's no drop-off in antibodies within 12 weeks (since that data is now in), but rather than than copying what others have done before them they're doing their own thing that has not been tested.

    Its brave for the same reason the UK strategy was brave at the time. Anyone who copies the UK strategy now is no longer brave, they're just following the path others have already shown to work.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  26. #3326
    'shown to work'
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  27. #3327
    Despite EMA's reluctance to approve changes to the dosing schedule, France has decided on a six week interval between the first and second dose, for the mRNA vaccines, following the general trend:

    https://www.reuters.com/business/hea...ut-2021-04-12/

    Guessing this primarily applies to vaccination of low-risk groups.

    Denmark has abandoned AZN's vaccine altogether. Here in Sweden, those of us young'uns who've received the first dose of AZN's vaccine may end up being offered a type of heterologous prime-boost protocol with two doses of one of the mRNA vaccines (still just speculative, so it's unclear whether one of these doses would be a modified version covering one or several of the most important variants).
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  28. #3328
    Quote Originally Posted by wiggin View Post
    'shown to work'
    You question that?

    From Private Eye but well put:

    Compared to the risk of a clot after a vaccine, you are six times more likely to be struck by lightning in your lifetime, 11 times more likely to die in a car accident each year ans 100 times more likely to get a blood clot if you use an oral contraceptive. If you are hospitalised with Covid, your risk of a clot is one in four...Some may decide to wait for more safety data to emerge or in the hope herd immunity will protect them without a vaccine. This strategy is much riskier than having the vaccine...Some people get unpleasant temporary side effects from vaccines. But the overall chance of dying, as with just about every modern vaccine, is around one in a million. Paracetamol is much more of a risk.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  29. #3329
    MHRA has released updated figures (up to April 5) indicating at least 100 known cases of VIPIT/VITT, and at least 22 known deaths:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/public...w-card-reports

    Should be a few more by now, not including those that have slipped under the radar due to lack of a diagnosis or due to inadequate reporting. Looking at a lower bound for incidence of roughly 5/million over a very short period of time (adjusted incidence probably comparable to estimates of incidence of "ordinary" CVST among people using some types of hormonal contraceptives). Some of these people might (and may) have been helped by the info that has come to light about this syndrome in the past few weeks re. diagnostic approach and treatment protocol; we didn't stand a chance, sadly. I think some teams are are trying to look at indicators of a similar autoimmune response among the vaccinated more broadly—ie. even among those who haven't developed the syndrome—but I guess they're likely to come up empty handed.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  30. #3330
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    I got the feeling that Aimless nailed it; the availability of Pfizer vaccination could be very relevant. Not only does it not have the negative image of the AZN vaccine, but it might actually help the EU to catch up dramatically in the drive to get everyone vaccinated much sooner than if we'd rely on AZN.
    Congratulations America

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