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Thread: covid-19

  1. #421
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    No. An unscheduled and unplanned blanket closure like was disastrously implemented in Italy would have made the problem worse not better. As it did in Italy.
    This is misleading and borderline deceptive. The UK had the option to implement strong restrictions early, in a planned manner. Italy was forced to implement such measures at a point when the epidemic had already become unmanageable - the disaster was already a fact just waiting to materialize, and the immediate implementation of severe suppression measures was non-optional by that point. The UK had two decent (complementary) choices available early on - immediately and drastically ramp up testing capacity and implement broad, effective testing with containment of cases in order to quickly get control of the epidemic, or implement broader measures to suppress community transmission early on in lieu of testing (or while testing capacity was being increased); it chose a third, extremely risky option, one widely criticized by experts whose criticism turned out to be justified - deliberate facilitation of community transmission. While the rationale behind this strategy may be intuitively appealing at first, it had not been thoroughly evaluated at the time it was proposed and the govt. went all in on it; that took just over another week, by which time the epidemic had - because of the govt's error - become much less manageable. As a consequence, the UK's epidemic is currently on a much more dangerous trajectory than Italy's was at the same stage of their epidemic. The yields for these strategies are neither linear nor symmetrical; the returns on drastic, costly measures such as strict suppression are exponentially greater if those measures are implemented very early - when you have low rates of community transmission - rather than being implemented a couple of weeks later, when you have an out-of-control epidemic with high rates of community transmission, and the consequences - in terms of social disruption as well as human and financial cost - of implementing such measures a couple of weeks "too early" are far less devastating than the consequences of implementing them a couple of weeks too late.

    An organised and sensible partial closure following a work from home order while keeping open for key workers who aren't working from home makes much more sense.

    You need to deal with the parents before you pull the rug out from under the children.
    Sure, and they should've done that a couple of weeks ago. Just to be clear, their reason for not doing the things they're doing now a couple of weeks ago was that they'd settled on a risky strategy that had not been properly vetted at the time, and that was roundly criticized as soon as it was announced to the public.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  2. #422
    Senior Member
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    Two days ago the Dutch Minister of Health collapsed in Parliament and afterwards decided to resign. Today a member of the opposition was appointed (on a personal title) to the post.
    Congratulations America

  3. #423
    More on the subject of what literally any other president would've done better:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...597_story.html
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  4. #424
    "In a field where an overlooked bug could cost millions, you want people who will speak their minds, even if they’re sometimes obnoxious about it."

  5. #425

  6. #426
    A new message on coronavirus in hard-hit areas: Don’t get tested
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...strategyshift/

    For profit healthcare, so awesome!
    "In a field where an overlooked bug could cost millions, you want people who will speak their minds, even if they’re sometimes obnoxious about it."

  7. #427
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    A new message on coronavirus in hard-hit areas: Don’t get tested
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...strategyshift/

    For profit healthcare, so awesome!
    Similar situation in many places with universal govt-subsidized healthcare. The issue is not who provides the care or what their financial incentives are. This is a political failure; govts should have scaled up testing capacity (esp. procuring/generating materials such as necessary reagents) drastically several weeks ago, in anticipation of their inevitable domestic epidemics. Swedish govt made a similar error and we're at least two weeks behind schedule as a consequence.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  8. #428
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Trump is a sociopath
    Come on man, David Brooks told us that over a year ago and he is Republican.
    Faith is Hope (see Loki's sig for details)
    If hindsight is 20-20, why is it so often ignored?

  9. #429
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    If those numbers reflect reality the US are fucked:

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevorn.../#158fa63a7e72
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  10. #430
    Quote Originally Posted by Khendraja'aro View Post
    If those numbers reflect reality the US are fucked:

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevorn.../#158fa63a7e72
    Have to consider that the US hasn't been testing much until recently. Should expect numbers of confirmed cases to rise as soon as a country begins testing. The US is in trouble, but still.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  11. #431
    Senior Member Flixy's Avatar
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    I don't think number of people tested positive is a useful comparison between countries or even between different days in a country considering a lot of people won't get tested. I suppose deaths are the only sorta reliable metric..
    Keep on keepin' the beat alive!

  12. #432
    Quote Originally Posted by Flixy View Post
    I don't think number of people tested positive is a useful comparison between countries or even between different days in a country considering a lot of people won't get tested. I suppose deaths are the only sorta reliable metric..
    Deaths and ICU usage.

  13. #433
    Quote Originally Posted by Flixy View Post
    I don't think number of people tested positive is a useful comparison between countries or even between different days in a country considering a lot of people won't get tested. I suppose deaths are the only sorta reliable metric..
    More or less. This is a reasonably useful way to compare the epidemics in different countries:

    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  14. #434
    Just leaving this here

    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  15. #435
    Pennsylvania's state officials have forcibly suspended all GameStop business licenses in an effort to combat the spread of coronavirus.
    https://www.dualshockers.com/gamesto...a-coronavirus/

    And that bitchslap finally forced GameStop to close it's stores nation wide. This after trying to claim they provide an "essential service"
    "In a field where an overlooked bug could cost millions, you want people who will speak their minds, even if they’re sometimes obnoxious about it."

  16. #436
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    Pennsylvania's state officials have forcibly suspended all GameStop business licenses in an effort to combat the spread of coronavirus.
    https://www.dualshockers.com/gamesto...a-coronavirus/

    And that bitchslap finally forced GameStop to close it's stores nation wide. This after trying to claim they provide an "essential service"
    I'd say 7-8 years ago during a quarantine hell yeah essential but with most games being downloaded now... wtf?

  17. #437
    One of VP Pence's aides tested positive. They're claiming no close physical contact, but still. And why the hell are they still standing shoulder-to-shoulder during their televised "briefings"?

    The numbers are climbing in Spain, and almost 800 people died in Italy in one day. We'll all be screwed if healthcare workers get sick -- I heard their rate of infection in Italy was 8-9%. So where's the WAR TIME urgency for scaling up PPE manufacturing? I can't believe the CDC said it's ok (as last resort) for docs and nurses to wear bandanas and scarves. omg

  18. #438
    Quote Originally Posted by Lewkowski View Post
    I'd say 7-8 years ago during a quarantine hell yeah essential
    No
    "In a field where an overlooked bug could cost millions, you want people who will speak their minds, even if they’re sometimes obnoxious about it."

  19. #439
    Both of my adult children work in the service industry (restaurant and entertainment) and were laid off last week....along with millions of others. They're fortunate not to have any debt -- or dependents-- and they can pay for rent/food/utilities for a couple of months from savings. They applied for unemployment insurance, like the other *2 million plus* in just one week.

    But the situation is dire, with projections of 20% unemployment in the coming weeks. Talk of a $2 Trillion economic rescue package is in the works, but I'm not sure that will be enough. And if congress doesn't step up the pace, it might be too late and we'll be in a freefall *depression*. I like the idea of giving people cash directly, but to whom and how much is up for debate.

    What do you think?


    PS not just for US policy

  20. #440
    Really sorry to hear about your sons GGT even if they're better off than most, it must be stressful and disappointing. Swedish govt. - like several others - quickly implemented measures to protect businesses and employees - tax deferment of up to a year, picking up the whole tab for paid sick leave from day 1, allowing hardest-hit sectors to use technical unemployment (employees furloughed, govt. covers their salaries almost entirely) etc. Absolutely vital.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  21. #441
    It's a scary time. Unfortunately, they won't benefit from suspended student loan interest, or deferred late fees on auto loans or credit cards, or frozen evictions/foreclosures from HUD. And only one had employee health insurance and paid sick time to begin with, since he worked for a corporation, but that's gone now.

    In the service industry and small business sector....all those places need to have immediate relief, not just from tax deferral but rent & mortgage payments. From what I understand, even their "business interruption insurance" claims are being denied.

  22. #442
    An interesting read:

    https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/...reliable-data/

    I think Ioannidis is taking his 'professional contrarian' role rather too far, but his underlying message is good. The fact of the matter is that the available data is absolute shit and it's very tough to make an informed public health decision without better information. I think he's wrong about how seriously we should take this - he doesn't do a good job of addressing the underlying issue, namely that of overwhelming healthcare systems that we do see happening, irrespective of actual statistics on things like mortality. I think he also ignores the concerns of 'serious but sub-fatal' disease and the potential for long term health impacts.

    I'm curious what all of you think about planning for the next pandemic. How do we get better data, faster, in order to make an informed decision? There are real costs to overreacting to something like this, but the cost of inadequate action are hard to understate. Getting that balance right is tricky, and it seems like the focus on the future should be better tools. Perhaps a more modular testing capability that could allow for repurposing of some reagents (AFAIK the only unique part is some primers), or more distributed capability of scaling up testing. Perhaps an enhanced surveillance regime where samples are randomly taken from patients in hospitals in the absence of a pandemic (this is already done in e.g. flu season) but retrospectively analyzed to see population spread and get some better data. I'm not sure.

    Certainly one thing that's clear is that we need better PPE emergency stocks, that's probably the most avoidable bottleneck in this whole mess.
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  23. #443
    The available data is shit because this is a *novel* virus never seen in humans. It might be related to other viruses, but it's too early to predict how it will behave (let alone mutate) among diverse populations. It's even too early to say how pregnant women, newborns, or children might be affected because the sample sizes are pretty small -- and come from countries that don't necessarily share all their data with full transparency (China, Iran).

    edit: and we still don't know the extent of asymptomatic spreaders, or super-spreaders

    At a minimum, we need unbiased prevalence and incidence data for the evolving infectious load to guide decision-making.
    I'd say that creating a robust public healthcare infrastructure (not based on corporate profits), with generous funding for government research (NIH, CDC), and returning to a belief/trust in science and epidemiology (experts!) would go a long way in guiding our "decision-making". It's not like this pandemic wasn't predicted -- since at least the 90's -- but that people chose to dismiss or ignore it.

    edit#2: the same thing is happening with cyber security and predicted threats
    Last edited by GGT; 03-22-2020 at 03:14 AM.

  24. #444
    Quote Originally Posted by wiggin View Post
    Certainly one thing that's clear is that we need better PPE emergency stocks, that's probably the most avoidable bottleneck in this whole mess.
    Trump isn't using the Defense Protection Act to its full ability, for political reasons.

  25. #445
    Anecdote: My baby had "the flu" in 1992. It was horrible. He ran high fevers (over 103), stopped nursing, and wouldn't take fluids by bottle. No amount of pediatric OTC meds helped. I held him in the shower to keep his fever down, hoping and praying that he wouldn't seize. (I still have his fever chart and calls to the pediatrician.) He was dehydrated and failing, struggling to breathe at times. We rushed him to the hospital for chest xrays and blood cultures -- all "negative". They gave him subcutaneous fluids and sent us home.

    Then I got sick, too. Never felt such body/bone aches or lung pain -- even my hair hurt. I can still remember holding my baby and crying together, both so miserable, hoping we wouldn't die. My mother flew from Florida to help us, which probably wasn't the best idea in hindsight, but thankfully she and my husband didn't get sick, too. Luck of the draw? Anyway, it was absolute hell.

    https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/...100-story.html

    We recovered, dodged that bullet, whew! Then I read The Coming Plague by Laurie Garrett https://www.lauriegarrett.com/the-coming-plague

    So I don't want to hear how this pandemic came out of the blue, and caught everyone with their pants down, unprepared. That's just bullshit.

  26. #446
    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    This is misleading and borderline deceptive. The UK had the option to implement strong restrictions early, in a planned manner. Italy was forced to implement such measures at a point when the epidemic had already become unmanageable - the disaster was already a fact just waiting to materialize, and the immediate implementation of severe suppression measures was non-optional by that point. The UK had two decent (complementary) choices available early on - immediately and drastically ramp up testing capacity and implement broad, effective testing with containment of cases in order to quickly get control of the epidemic, or implement broader measures to suppress community transmission early on in lieu of testing (or while testing capacity was being increased); it chose a third, extremely risky option, one widely criticized by experts whose criticism turned out to be justified - deliberate facilitation of community transmission. While the rationale behind this strategy may be intuitively appealing at first, it had not been thoroughly evaluated at the time it was proposed and the govt. went all in on it; that took just over another week, by which time the epidemic had - because of the govt's error - become much less manageable. As a consequence, the UK's epidemic is currently on a much more dangerous trajectory than Italy's was at the same stage of their epidemic. The yields for these strategies are neither linear nor symmetrical; the returns on drastic, costly measures such as strict suppression are exponentially greater if those measures are implemented very early - when you have low rates of community transmission - rather than being implemented a couple of weeks later, when you have an out-of-control epidemic with high rates of community transmission, and the consequences - in terms of social disruption as well as human and financial cost - of implementing such measures a couple of weeks "too early" are far less devastating than the consequences of implementing them a couple of weeks too late.



    Sure, and they should've done that a couple of weeks ago. Just to be clear, their reason for not doing the things they're doing now a couple of weeks ago was that they'd settled on a risky strategy that had not been properly vetted at the time, and that was roundly criticized as soon as it was announced to the public.
    That's total bollocks. I was quoting the testing numbers early on here. We were testing thousands a day, more than ANY OTHER nation in the world besides those few with a widespread epidemic already.

    As a result our death rate and case rate is on a much lower trajectory than Italy or other nations despite the FTs dodgy and misleading graph where they keep restarting the data to overlay the UK onto Italy. The outbreak began in Italy and in the UK on the same day.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  27. #447
    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    More or less. This is a reasonably useful way to compare the epidemics in different countries:

    No an honest graphic would be setting day 1 as the first day of the outbreak not cherry picking a day (in this case 10 deaths) so the data of a couple of days afterwards matches what you want to show. Looking at that graph it appears this virus only arrive in the UK for instance 9 days ago which is not much data rather than the reality that it arrived here and has been spreading here since literally the same day as Italy.

    Hence why a week ago they had another dodgy graphic showing cases overlaid from case 100 onwards trying to force that on an exponential scale to show the same thing but then the data diverged so they switched.

    This isn't the time for clickbait dodgy graphs.
    Last edited by RandBlade; 03-22-2020 at 06:14 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  28. #448
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post

    This isn't the time for clickbait dodgy graphs.
    Or political pandering.

    The truth is that none of UK's "testing" really matters when they still kept important variables like schools, restaurants, pubs and bars open.

  29. #449
    Quote Originally Posted by GGT View Post
    Or political pandering.

    The truth is that none of UK's "testing" really matters when they still kept important variables like schools, restaurants, pubs and bars open.
    Sure it did because it contained the virus flattening it for a month. Then when the closure came it was able to be more organised, dealing with the parents first before the children so the children didn't become a vector for sending the virus on to grandparents etc.

    Considering the virus arrived in Italy and in the UK on the same day one of tracking it certainly does seem that the testing has made a world of difference if you track from day one.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  30. #450
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Sure it did because it contained the virus flattening it for a month. Then when the closure came it was able to be more organised, dealing with the parents first before the children so the children didn't become a vector for sending the virus on to grandparents etc.

    Considering the virus arrived in Italy and in the UK on the same day one of tracking it certainly does seem that the testing has made a world of difference if you track from day one.
    Then why is the UK reporting a surge of people infected, and an "explosion" in ICU needs?

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