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Thread: The Clown Circus

  1. #811
    Rumours heard from a little black bird
    The edges of the prophacy, the pieces I have learned
    Said the daughter of the reaper has been searching for the keeper
    And I fear she'll let me burn

  2. #812
    He forgot to mention that he'll serve the aristocrats, the upper class, and the working class, before snickering at the last one.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  3. #813
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  4. #814
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Amsterdam/Istanbul
    Posts
    12,313
    90 days.
    Congratulations America

  5. #815
    Quote Originally Posted by Hazir View Post
    90 days.
    I mean he's already resigned so they're just recommending withholding the former Member's pass

    But imagine being on record defending this man's character and fitness for office!
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  6. #816
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Amsterdam/Istanbul
    Posts
    12,313
    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    I mean he's already resigned so they're just recommending withholding the former Member's pass

    But imagine being on record defending this man's character and fitness for office!
    I'm happy to say that I literally can't.
    Congratulations America

  7. #817
    Rumours heard from a little black bird
    The edges of the prophacy, the pieces I have learned
    Said the daughter of the reaper has been searching for the keeper
    And I fear she'll let me burn

  8. #818
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  9. #819
    Thorough repudiation of the Rwanda policy, as expected.

    Toryblades respond with calls to break the law, as expected
    Last edited by Aimless; 11-16-2023 at 10:10 PM.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  10. #820
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...nts-rwanda-uk/

    The Bill must enable flights before the next general election
    Legislation must therefore circumvent the lengthy process of further domestic litigation, to ensure that flights can take off as soon as the new Bill becomes law. To do this, the Bill must exclude all avenues of legal challenge. The entirety of the Human Rights Act and European Convention on Human Rights, and other relevant international obligations, or legislation, including the Refugee Convention, must be disapplied by way of clear “notwithstanding” clauses.
    Judicial Review, all common law challenges, and all injunctive relief, including the suspensive challenges available under the Illegal Migration Act must be expressly excluded. Individuals would, however, be given the chance to demonstrate that they had entered the country legally, were under 18, or were medically unfit to fly – but Home Office decisions on these claims could not be challenged in court.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  11. #821
    Rumours heard from a little black bird
    The edges of the prophacy, the pieces I have learned
    Said the daughter of the reaper has been searching for the keeper
    And I fear she'll let me burn

  12. #822
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    Would be fascinating to see voter flow stats since Farage farted out his candidacy announcement.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  13. #823
    It doesn't seem to have moved the overall polls too much, maybe +3-5 for Reform, hard to pick out where exactly the votes are coming from from the overall noise of the polls and other campaign events. The issue is that that Tories' don't have that many votes to spare. Although current projections have winning something on the order of 150 seats, many of those seats are marginal enough to be within the typical opinion poll error range. Anything that shifts the polls much more in Labour's direction (polling error, another swing to Labour, third party taking votes off the Tories) could turn a disaster (150 seats) into an apocalypse (50-60 seats), which would be the difference between being out of power for a couple of terms and out of power for a generation or more.

    Also, polls show that Farage has a negative rating amongst Labour voters and a positive one amongst Tory voters, so most of the damage he does will be to the Tories.
    Rumours heard from a little black bird
    The edges of the prophacy, the pieces I have learned
    Said the daughter of the reaper has been searching for the keeper
    And I fear she'll let me burn

  14. #824
    I love this for them



    He has been cursed by the medium of photography itself
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  15. #825
    Reform within 1% of the Tories
    Lib Dems within 3% of the Tories
    Tories are closer to the Greens than they are to Labour.

    Rumours heard from a little black bird
    The edges of the prophacy, the pieces I have learned
    Said the daughter of the reaper has been searching for the keeper
    And I fear she'll let me burn

  16. #826
    I bet they wish they instituted PR.

  17. #827
    I don't think that would necessarily increase their seats by too much, mostly it would massively harm Labour and benefit Reform, so I guess it depends on who they hate more.
    Rumours heard from a little black bird
    The edges of the prophacy, the pieces I have learned
    Said the daughter of the reaper has been searching for the keeper
    And I fear she'll let me burn

  18. #828
    They'd have a shot at a coalition government with Reform. In the current system, Reform is going to be their version of the Lib Dems, constantly keeping them from getting a majority.

  19. #829
    Labour still have more seats than Tories + Reform combined under PR if those results happened in the election, just by a measure of 10 or 20, rather than 100s. Plus they still have an option of coalition with the Lib-Dems.
    Rumours heard from a little black bird
    The edges of the prophacy, the pieces I have learned
    Said the daughter of the reaper has been searching for the keeper
    And I fear she'll let me burn

  20. #830
    Tories without Sunak would instantly gain 5+%, but they really can't help themselves. They're in their own Corbyn phase.

  21. #831
    Not sure how that connects to PR, but to answer your point - who do you put in Sunak's place? The reason he was elected unopposed, and why he was never replaced since, despite failing to makeup any ground on Labour after the initial 'not being liz truss' bounce, is that they really have no one else. The Tories would give their right arm to get Corbyn's 2019 result (32%), if you told them they could get 10% less votes than Corbyn, they'd probably at least take it. Their problems go far deeper than just a Sunak being a poor leader.
    Last edited by Steely Glint; 06-13-2024 at 04:07 PM.
    Rumours heard from a little black bird
    The edges of the prophacy, the pieces I have learned
    Said the daughter of the reaper has been searching for the keeper
    And I fear she'll let me burn

  22. #832
    Their problem is that their voters want insane leaders, so the party either has to accept an insane leader (see Truss) or pick one without party member input (see Sunak). Neither are great recipes for electoral success. That's the same issue Labour had in its Corbyn phase.

  23. #833
    I don't think the fact that Sunak didn't win an a leadership contest amongst Tory members is even in the top 10 in the list of electoral problems they have right now. Fact is, since they took power, they've had 1 leader who would be considered 'insane' by your standards -Truss- and she was in power for no more than a few months.
    Rumours heard from a little black bird
    The edges of the prophacy, the pieces I have learned
    Said the daughter of the reaper has been searching for the keeper
    And I fear she'll let me burn

  24. #834
    Johnson was insane, too, but he was good with the voters, which minimized the electoral consequences of his insanity. Sunak has 0 charisma and is at best a mediocre politician. Tories make up more than 18% of the electorate. But he can't even get the support of his own party's voters.

  25. #835
    Johnson was a corrupt, incompetent liar but what about his policy platform was 'insane' to you? You can see the 2019 manifesto here, there's really nothing particularly outlandish - get brexit done, make some hospitals and schools, get down immigration. No Austrian school-style economic experiments, no culture wars.

    The fact that they delivered on basically none of it and now basically everyone admits that Brexit has been a disaster and have had numerous other disasters and scandals since then tells you why they are where they are in the polls, Sunak's bizarre unforced errors are just icing on the cake.
    Rumours heard from a little black bird
    The edges of the prophacy, the pieces I have learned
    Said the daughter of the reaper has been searching for the keeper
    And I fear she'll let me burn

  26. #836
    Sunak's charisn'tma is painful, but bear in mind what we're seeing ahead of this election reflects the entire party's performance wrt governance and politics over the past several years. Anyway can we at least agree that his misfortune is very funny
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  27. #837
    My hot take is that anyone who was even mildly inclined to not vote Tory had already resolved to do so long ago, so all he's doing with his cockups is convincing natural Tory voters to either vote reform or stay home. The d-day thing is literally unfathomable to me. Even the greatest minds at the International Institute for Stupid Bullshit Studies could not hope to probe its secrets.
    Rumours heard from a little black bird
    The edges of the prophacy, the pieces I have learned
    Said the daughter of the reaper has been searching for the keeper
    And I fear she'll let me burn

  28. #838
    Survation's final call is unhinged, yet glorious.

    Rumours heard from a little black bird
    The edges of the prophacy, the pieces I have learned
    Said the daughter of the reaper has been searching for the keeper
    And I fear she'll let me burn

  29. #839
    Exit Poll

    Labour: 410
    Con: 131
    Lib: 61
    Reform: 13

    Conservatives perform at the upper bound of polling expectations, and keep themselves alive.
    Rumours heard from a little black bird
    The edges of the prophacy, the pieces I have learned
    Said the daughter of the reaper has been searching for the keeper
    And I fear she'll let me burn

  30. #840
    Two countries celebrated freedom from Tory rule yesterday fully expect Starmer to fumble this opportunity to advance British social democracy in a desperate quest to nab a few dozen Reform voters, but I hope grassroots orgs can compensate for that and build a solid platform for future Labour victories. Wonder how British forumites voted
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

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