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Thread: Presidential Debate 2020

  1. #31
    Yes give him too much credit. He's just a racist asshole who loves hearing himself speak.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  2. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    Yes give him too much credit. He's just a racist asshole who loves hearing himself speak.
    Not giving him credit so much as expressing my low opinion of the people advising him... well, he shat the bed anyway

    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  3. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    I agree that Biden missed some opportunities, but we know he's not a great debater. Going for the kill might have very well led to a bad and unforced stumble. The only things anyone is talking about from yesterday's debate are Trump's interruptions and Trump's refusal to condemn white supremacists. That's a pretty damn good news cycle for Biden, especially when we're 5 weeks from the election and he's up ~7%.
    This is the right take, probably. Biden is already leading and, as we know, he's generally bad at things. Probably not a great idea for him to try and do something at this stage. Especially with the US media being what it is.
    Greater than the odds, higher than the stakes
    One shot to change the course, with no room for mistakes
    Bound with stronger will, in the hands of time
    So where's the pawn that turns the tide and keeps the game alive?

  4. #34

  5. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    I agree that Biden missed some opportunities, but we know he's not a great debater. Going for the kill might have very well led to a bad and unforced stumble. The only things anyone is talking about from yesterday's debate are Trump's interruptions and Trump's refusal to condemn white supremacists. That's a pretty damn good news cycle for Biden, especially when we're 5 weeks from the election and he's up ~7%.
    Yeah, it could have been a more decisive defeat, but that's probably too much to expect from Biden. He's clearly trying to be aggressive to avoid giving the impression that he's a push-over, but he still ceded too much control of the debate to Trump. But Biden still won, even if it wasn't as decisive a rhetorical curb-stomp as I wanted. Trump did give the media a good amount of ammo to use for a while without much help. Though I think the "stand back and stand by" comment is being given more air time than it should for a Freudian gaffe.

    Trump's refusal to promise a peaceful transfer of power and statements that he might not accept the election results need more focus.

  6. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    I agree that Biden missed some opportunities, but we know he's not a great debater. Going for the kill might have very well led to a bad and unforced stumble. The only things anyone is talking about from yesterday's debate are Trump's interruptions and Trump's refusal to condemn white supremacists. That's a pretty damn good news cycle for Biden, especially when we're 5 weeks from the election and he's up ~7%.
    100% agreed.

    The thing that is missed is that Biden is winning and there aren't that many opportunities for Trump to turn it around. This was one of three major opportunities he had and he blew it. Yes Biden didn't score a knockout punch, but nor did he need to do so.

    Its like a heavyweight boxer fight where by the 11th round one fighter knows he should be winning the points by a long shot. Does he go all out for a KO while exposing himself to a counter attack or play it safe?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  7. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    Not giving him credit so much as expressing my low opinion of the people advising him... well, he shat the bed anyway

    Very good. He'd clearly practiced the straight to the camera speech but it was powerfully done and a trick he used repeatedly. Speaking to the voter not Trump.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  8. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    100% agreed.

    The thing that is missed is that Biden is winning and there aren't that many opportunities for Trump to turn it around. This was one of three major opportunities he had and he blew it. Yes Biden didn't score a knockout punch, but nor did he need to do so.

    Its like a heavyweight boxer fight where by the 11th round one fighter knows he should be winning the points by a long shot. Does he go all out for a KO while exposing himself to a counter attack or play it safe?
    I don't think Biden should have been more aggressive, but I also think you're underestimating Trump's chances. He's got some real advantages in the electoral college, and state polls in critical states are closer than I'd like. For that matter, projections in an electoral environment as unusual as this one are even more susceptible to error.


    I think it's probable Biden will win, but it's far from a slam dunk. And I really had hoped that Trump would lose so comprehensibly that his approach would have been thoroughly repudiated. That is unlikely to occur.
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  9. #39
    Which states are those? He's up 6-7% in the Midwest (Penn, Michigan, Wisconsin). He doesn't need Florida or North Carolina to win. He's also up 4% in Arizona. Winning that would allow him to lose Wisconsin (where he's up 7%).
    Hope is the denial of reality

  10. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    Which states are those? He's up 6-7% in the Midwest (Penn, Michigan, Wisconsin). He doesn't need Florida or North Carolina to win. He's also up 4% in Arizona. Winning that would allow him to lose Wisconsin (where he's up 7%).
    Indeed. On the state polling South Carolina and Texas are now polling as more marginal than Wisconsin and Michigan are.

    I don't think the boy from Scranton is going to lose PA and if he wins there it is hard to see Trump winning the Oval Office. Its possible that Trump wins fairly in November but its equally possible that Biden gets over 400 electoral college votes. I'd put those scenarios roughly equally likely.

    If Biden carries the midwest, Arizona, Florida and possibly even Texas . . . and the cherry on the cake would be Lindsey Graham losing his senate seat too . . . then that should be a thorough enough repudiation of Trump surely wiggin?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  11. #41
    Quote Originally Posted by Wraith View Post
    I'll be honest, I didn't know who the Proud Boys were until last night.
    Their founder has over 2 dozen appearances on Hannity's show. Facebook's security division linked the Proud Boy network to Howard Stone. Yeah, Trump pardoned a guy who flashes white power signs over beers at regular bars.



    I think Trump's biggest screw up were his false claims around insulin prices. Given the correlation between low education, poor diet, diabetes and trump supporters I've seen more than one comment from people being annoyed that they still pay hundreds of dollars every month for their insulin.
    Last edited by Ominous Gamer; 10-01-2020 at 02:27 PM.
    "In a field where an overlooked bug could cost millions, you want people who will speak their minds, even if they’re sometimes obnoxious about it."

  12. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Indeed. On the state polling South Carolina and Texas are now polling as more marginal than Wisconsin and Michigan are.

    I don't think the boy from Scranton is going to lose PA and if he wins there it is hard to see Trump winning the Oval Office. Its possible that Trump wins fairly in November but its equally possible that Biden gets over 400 electoral college votes. I'd put those scenarios roughly equally likely.

    If Biden carries the midwest, Arizona, Florida and possibly even Texas . . . and the cherry on the cake would be Lindsey Graham losing his senate seat too . . . then that should be a thorough enough repudiation of Trump surely wiggin?
    I have the same level of confidence in a free and fair election in Florida as I would in Hungary or Poland. If it's remotely close, Trump will win. Texas is probably a stretch as well. The realistic best case scenario would be Biden winning places like North Carolina, Arizona, and Iowa (in addition to the necessary states in the Midwest).
    Hope is the denial of reality

  13. #43
    Biden needs to win by enough that Trump can't run to the Supreme Court to change the result.

  14. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by Being View Post
    If this country wasn't so cowboyish it wouldn't be a close enough vote to come to that. If the vote is close enough, I can only say I am ashamed and we deserve what we get.
    .

  15. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  16. #46
    https://www.texastribune.org/2020/10...exas-vote-mail

    Case in point. Trump won't lose Texas or Florida because the GOP will refuse to allow an honest election. Harris County, TX has 4.7 million people. Now it will have one location to drop off absentee ballots.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  17. #47
    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    Which states are those? He's up 6-7% in the Midwest (Penn, Michigan, Wisconsin). He doesn't need Florida or North Carolina to win. He's also up 4% in Arizona. Winning that would allow him to lose Wisconsin (where he's up 7%).
    Fivethirtyeight's polling averages as of today:


    MI Biden +7.2
    WI Biden +6.0
    PA Biden +5.8
    AZ Biden +3.6
    FL Biden +2.3
    OH Biden +1.4
    NC Biden +1.3

    Pennsylvania is most likely to be the tipping point state. With the polling error, Biden has a slight lead there but far from a comfortable one, especially from a state where he should be doing quite well but is actually underperforming the national picture.

    I agree that current polling looks generally good for Biden, but a 6 point lead in the most critical state isn't exactly a lot of breathing room, especially with the predictability of polls potentially being so shitty in a Covid environment and the likely legal challenges to all sorts of mail in ballots.

    In some scenarios, we could see places like Georgia, Texas, Iowa, and SC fall to Biden. That would be extraordinary and would be a massive repudiation of Trump (and likely a decent Senate majority for Biden) - I would absolutely love that scenario. But more likely we'll see a relatively tight election with critical states decided on small margins.
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  18. #48
    It just amazes me how much support Trump still has. He's right, he really could murder someone in plain view and he wouldn't lose any support. It's fucking scary.
    The Rules
    Copper- behave toward others to elicit treatment you would like (the manipulative rule)
    Gold- treat others how you would like them to treat you (the self regard rule)
    Platinum - treat others the way they would like to be treated (the PC rule)

  19. #49
    I'd caution against putting too much faith in the polls for this election. They've been getting less reliable even before the virus, and we don't really have a good way to predict the impact covid will have on voter turnout and how it might shift the results. Don't get complacent.

  20. #50
    What he means is don't jinx it you fucking jinxers
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  21. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Biden polling in the lead in Georgia. Georgia not exactly what comes to mind as a blue state.
    Debate bounce.
    Greater than the odds, higher than the stakes
    One shot to change the course, with no room for mistakes
    Bound with stronger will, in the hands of time
    So where's the pawn that turns the tide and keeps the game alive?

  22. #52
    Quote Originally Posted by wiggin View Post
    Fivethirtyeight's polling averages as of today:


    MI Biden +7.2
    WI Biden +6.0
    PA Biden +5.8
    AZ Biden +3.6
    FL Biden +2.3
    OH Biden +1.4
    NC Biden +1.3

    Pennsylvania is most likely to be the tipping point state. With the polling error, Biden has a slight lead there but far from a comfortable one, especially from a state where he should be doing quite well but is actually underperforming the national picture.

    I agree that current polling looks generally good for Biden, but a 6 point lead in the most critical state isn't exactly a lot of breathing room, especially with the predictability of polls potentially being so shitty in a Covid environment and the likely legal challenges to all sorts of mail in ballots.

    In some scenarios, we could see places like Georgia, Texas, Iowa, and SC fall to Biden. That would be extraordinary and would be a massive repudiation of Trump (and likely a decent Senate majority for Biden) - I would absolutely love that scenario. But more likely we'll see a relatively tight election with critical states decided on small margins.
    Pennsylvania has a Democratic governor. That's going to cut down on some of the stuff we'll likely see in Florida and Texas.

    You shouldn't look at those polls as if they were independent of one another by the way. 2016 polls didn't account for education; the 2020 polls do. It's telling that Biden is up by very similar margins in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. It's highly unlikely that only one of those is wrong. Unless you think Trump has a real shot at all of those states...

    Even if, for whatever reason, the polling is really off in Pennsylvania and Pennsylvania alone, Biden still wins by taking Arizona (even if he loses Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina).

    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Biden polling in the lead in Georgia. Georgia not exactly what comes to mind as a blue state.
    My default assumption is that the GOP will not allow Biden to win any close election in a state where the GOP controls all levers of power.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  23. #53
    Senior Member Flixy's Avatar
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    IIRC, only for this election cycle some restrictions were lifted that barred the GOP from influencing the elections too much, right? Given the amount of shenanigans they pull now, can those restrictions be put back in place for the next one?

    Because honestly it's embarassing for the 'beacon of democracy' or 'leaders of the free world' to have this much shit happening which is blatantly designed to prevent people from voting. It boggles the mind. This is the USA we are talking about, not Belarus.
    Keep on keepin' the beat alive!

  24. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by Flixy View Post
    IIRC, only for this election cycle some restrictions were lifted that barred the GOP from influencing the elections too much, right? Given the amount of shenanigans they pull now, can those restrictions be put back in place for the next one?

    Because honestly it's embarassing for the 'beacon of democracy' or 'leaders of the free world' to have this much shit happening which is blatantly designed to prevent people from voting. It boggles the mind. This is the USA we are talking about, not Belarus.
    The Supreme Court struck down most of those previous limitations on GOP shenanigans as unconstitutional. With an even stronger GOP majority on the Court, it's only going to get worse.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  25. #55
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    Debate bounce.
    Think there was also one that had Biden up before the debate. Senate candidates might have a chance, also. Ossoff and Warnock have both been advertising extensively, and both seem to have good phonebanking going on.

    I've seen more Biden ads in Texas than I was in Georgia, though.
    We're stuck in a bloody snowglobe.

  26. #56
    From memory are you in GA Lolli?

    Does it feel to you like GA could be a swing state this year?

    EDIT: Actually from re-reading your message are you now in Texas?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  27. #57
    I've only been in Texas a couple of weeks, I haven't really moved here (yet). And yes, I think it's a possibility that Georgia could be a swing state this year. I do, however, expect to see the shenanigans we've come to expect with polling places being under-equipped and people mysteriously dropping off the voter registration lists after the deadline.
    We're stuck in a bloody snowglobe.

  28. #58
    I know I am a new member but I think I have found my people.

  29. #59
    That's a filthy lie, Mahiro. You're not new. You're just wayward and late in rejoining us.
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

  30. #60
    Quote Originally Posted by mahiro View Post
    I know I am a new member but I think I have found my people.
    Sometimes you need to be away to find your base again.

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