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Thread: Presidential Debate 2020

  1. #61
    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    Pennsylvania has a Democratic governor. That's going to cut down on some of the stuff we'll likely see in Florida and Texas.

    You shouldn't look at those polls as if they were independent of one another by the way. 2016 polls didn't account for education; the 2020 polls do. It's telling that Biden is up by very similar margins in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. It's highly unlikely that only one of those is wrong. Unless you think Trump has a real shot at all of those states...

    Even if, for whatever reason, the polling is really off in Pennsylvania and Pennsylvania alone, Biden still wins by taking Arizona (even if he loses Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina).
    I think the environment, overall, is definitely in Biden's favor. But I don't think it's anything close to guaranteed. The polling might have been corrected some since 2016, but the wild cards in 2020 are so numerous and complex that we can't possibly expect the polls to be a good measure of who will actually vote, how they will vote, and which of those votes will be counted.

    You're right that the polls in different states are correlated, but that actually undermines your point. It's not likely that PA polls will be uniquely off - it's more likely that systematic factors mean that all of the purplish Midwestern states are shifted one direction or another due to the aforementioned wild cards.

    If you asked me to put money down on the victor, I would definitely put it on Biden. But just because he's the most likely victor doesn't mean I have a great deal of confidence in the outcome - even assuming there aren't shenanigans wrt not counting mail in ballots.
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  2. #62
    You're forgetting that the margin of error goes in both directions. It's conceivable that there's some unexpected factor that will push the results closer in Trump's direction. But it's equally likely that the current polls underestimate Biden's election day support. That's to say there's a similar probability of Trump winning as there is of Biden winning by a blowout.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  3. #63
    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    You're forgetting that the margin of error goes in both directions. It's conceivable that there's some unexpected factor that will push the results closer in Trump's direction. But it's equally likely that the current polls underestimate Biden's election day support. That's to say there's a similar probability of Trump winning as there is of Biden winning by a blowout.
    In theory, you're right assuming that the underlying assumptions wrt random sampling (and the many corrections therein) are correct. However it's also possible that most of the polls have a systematic bias in one direction due to unforeseen circumstances.

    The kind of sampling they do and their subsequent analysis works best in a more predictable environment. In such an environment, any single good poll for Biden won't be meaningful, but lots of good polls will start to build a coherent picture. But with all of the wild cards, it's easily possible to imagine that there is a systematic bias that our models aren't taking into account (wrt e.g. the rate of accepted mail in ballots vs. demographics, or turnout in a pandemic, or whatever else). That bias may favor Biden or Trump, but it's likely that the bias is one-sided: that is, most polls are favoring either Biden or Trump, not a mixture of both. In such a circumstance the value of lots of polls showing broadly good news for Biden should be treated with more skepticism.
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  4. #64
    Pence has his head stuck up his ass and the moderator is asleep on the job. He hasn't come close to properly answering a single question, and he keeps going over his allotted time. Worst of all, everything he's saying is either super pathetic or super dumb—or both.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  5. #65
    Pence did far better than Trump. The Supreme Court question is an absolute winner for team Trump, Biden/Harris refusing to answer it is a bit absurd.

  6. #66
    Quote Originally Posted by Lewkowski View Post
    Pence did far better than Trump. The Supreme Court question is an absolute winner for team Trump, Biden/Harris refusing to answer it is a bit absurd.
    "Pence did better than the biggest dumbass in US politics" is what we call "damning with faint praise". What a hopelessly outmatched dope of a man. As if his stupidity wasn't bad enough, the imagery of him sitting there with a red eye and a fly on his head is just *chef's kiss*.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  7. #67
    Aimless I'm curious as to what Presidential and Vice Presidential Debates were lost by Democrats in the last 8 or so years where you said as much at the time.

  8. #68
    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    "Pence did better than the biggest dumbass in US politics" is what we call "damning with faint praise". What a hopelessly outmatched dope of a man. As if his stupidity wasn't bad enough, the imagery of him sitting there with a red eye and a fly on his head is just *chef's kiss*.
    The fly tweeted: I'm going to sit here until he answers a question.
    I could have had class. I could have been a contender.
    I could have been somebody. Instead of a bum
    Which is what I am

    I aim at the stars
    But sometimes I hit London

  9. #69
    Flies are always attracted to shit.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  10. #70
    Anyone who lives by the line "the eyes are windows to the soul" likely went running for their bible after seeing Pence's. No wonder he wouldn't look directly at anyone.
    "In a field where an overlooked bug could cost millions, you want people who will speak their minds, even if they’re sometimes obnoxious about it."

  11. #71
    Trump has decided that the way to turn around being double-digit percentage points down in many polls now is to pull out of the second debate!

    Bottler and coward.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  12. #72
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Trump has decided that the way to turn around being double-digit percentage points down in many polls now is to pull out of the second debate!
    TBF, after the last debate, I seriously doubt attending a second one would help his poll numbers.

    Besides, other dictators never have to attend debates, so why should Trump?

  13. #73
    Quote Originally Posted by Wraith View Post
    TBF, after the last debate, I seriously doubt attending a second one would help his poll numbers.

    Besides, other dictators never have to attend debates, so why should Trump?
    But he won the debate, he said so on twitter.
    We're stuck in a bloody snowglobe.

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