Presidential Debate 2020

[wiggin]

Pennsylvania has a Democratic governor. That's going to cut down on some of the stuff we'll likely see in Florida and Texas.

You shouldn't look at those polls as if they were independent of one another by the way. 2016 polls didn't account for education; the 2020 polls do. It's telling that Biden is up by very similar margins in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. It's highly unlikely that only one of those is wrong. Unless you think Trump has a real shot at all of those states...

Even if, for whatever reason, the polling is really off in Pennsylvania and Pennsylvania alone, Biden still wins by taking Arizona (even if he loses Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina).

I think the environment, overall, is definitely in Biden's favor. But I don't think it's anything close to guaranteed. The polling might have been corrected some since 2016, but the wild cards in 2020 are so numerous and complex that we can't possibly expect the polls to be a good measure of who will actually vote, how they will vote, and which of those votes will be counted.

You're right that the polls in different states are correlated, but that actually undermines your point. It's not likely that PA polls will be uniquely off - it's more likely that systematic factors mean that all of the purplish Midwestern states are shifted one direction or another due to the aforementioned wild cards.

If you asked me to put money down on the victor, I would definitely put it on Biden. But just because he's the most likely victor doesn't mean I have a great deal of confidence in the outcome - even assuming there aren't shenanigans wrt not counting mail in ballots.

[Loki]

You're forgetting that the margin of error goes in both directions. It's conceivable that there's some unexpected factor that will push the results closer in Trump's direction. But it's equally likely that the current polls underestimate Biden's election day support. That's to say there's a similar probability of Trump winning as there is of Biden winning by a blowout.

[wiggin]

You're forgetting that the margin of error goes in both directions. It's conceivable that there's some unexpected factor that will push the results closer in Trump's direction. But it's equally likely that the current polls underestimate Biden's election day support. That's to say there's a similar probability of Trump winning as there is of Biden winning by a blowout.

In theory, you're right assuming that the underlying assumptions wrt random sampling (and the many corrections therein) are correct. However it's also possible that most of the polls have a systematic bias in one direction due to unforeseen circumstances.

The kind of sampling they do and their subsequent analysis works best in a more predictable environment. In such an environment, any single good poll for Biden won't be meaningful, but lots of good polls will start to build a coherent picture. But with all of the wild cards, it's easily possible to imagine that there is a systematic bias that our models aren't taking into account (wrt e.g. the rate of accepted mail in ballots vs. demographics, or turnout in a pandemic, or whatever else). That bias may favor Biden or Trump, but it's likely that the bias is one-sided: that is, most polls are favoring either Biden or Trump, not a mixture of both. In such a circumstance the value of lots of polls showing broadly good news for Biden should be treated with more skepticism.

[Aimless]

Pence has his head stuck up his ass and the moderator is asleep on the job. He hasn't come close to properly answering a single question, and he keeps going over his allotted time. Worst of all, everything he's saying is either super pathetic or super dumb—or both.

[Lewkowski]

Pence did far better than Trump. The Supreme Court question is an absolute winner for team Trump, Biden/Harris refusing to answer it is a bit absurd.

[Aimless]

Pence did far better than Trump. The Supreme Court question is an absolute winner for team Trump, Biden/Harris refusing to answer it is a bit absurd.

"Pence did better than the biggest dumbass in US politics" is what we call "damning with faint praise". What a hopelessly outmatched dope of a man. As if his stupidity wasn't bad enough, the imagery of him sitting there with a red eye and a fly on his head is just *chef's kiss*.

[Lewkowski]

Aimless I'm curious as to what Presidential and Vice Presidential Debates were lost by Democrats in the last 8 or so years where you said as much at the time.

[Ziggy Stardust]

"Pence did better than the biggest dumbass in US politics" is what we call "damning with faint praise". What a hopelessly outmatched dope of a man. As if his stupidity wasn't bad enough, the imagery of him sitting there with a red eye and a fly on his head is just *chef's kiss*.

The fly tweeted: I'm going to sit here until he answers a question.

[RandBlade]

Flies are always attracted to shit.

[Ominous Gamer]

Anyone who lives by the line "the eyes are windows to the soul" likely went running for their bible after seeing Pence's. No wonder he wouldn't look directly at anyone.

[RandBlade]

Trump has decided that the way to turn around being double-digit percentage points down in many polls now is to pull out of the second debate!

Bottler and coward.

Twitter Link

The way he is acting must be putting a severe strain on the Biden campaign's Champagne budget.

[Wraith]

Trump has decided that the way to turn around being double-digit percentage points down in many polls now is to pull out of the second debate!

TBF, after the last debate, I seriously doubt attending a second one would help his poll numbers.

Besides, other dictators never have to attend debates, so why should Trump?

[littlelolligagged]

TBF, after the last debate, I seriously doubt attending a second one would help his poll numbers.

Besides, other dictators never have to attend debates, so why should Trump?

But he won the debate, he said so on twitter.