Twenty Years On...

[BalticSailor]

It's going to be a meat grinder. They're sending these people into Ukraine with whatever cold war equipment remnants they can find that they haven't used already, and they're doing it in winter.

Perhaps this will finally influence their support for the war.

[Wraith]

Those protests against the draft are starting to get pretty violent and arsony.

[BalticSailor]

Those protests against the draft are starting to get pretty violent and arsony.

Too little too late. Some 300k (initially) of them will soon learn that staying silent up until now has its price, too.

The "referendums" on joining Russia have started in the occupied regions, and the results will enable Russia to claim that Ukraine is attacking its territory. This will probably result in Russia officially declaring war. And they will need the manpower, so getting sent to die over there ASAP is an increasingly likely future prospect for many russian citizens.

[Loki]

Not a good time to be a Russian squad leader. When everyone behind you would prefer to see you dead than to charge forward, it's not good for your health.

[BalticSailor]

That's what barrier troops are for.

[Loki]

Russia doesn't have enough motivated troops to fight on the front line, let alone to sit in the rear.

[BalticSailor]

Oh, that problem has a simple fix - explain that if the second line doesn't push the first line forward, they themselves become the first line. There's your motivation.

[BalticSailor]

Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines damaged, Swedish seismologists report detecting explosions at the damage sites:

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2...ream-gas-leaks

[LittleFuzzy]

Presuming that it was sabotage, I've been trying to figure out who would actually benefit from making such an attack, and other than a nebulous benefit to Ukraine by blocking a future carrot to Europe from Russia, I'm not seeing anything.

Anyone else got a rationale?

[Hazir]

I don't. But then again virtually nothing makes sense these days. Still would bet on the Russians being behind this. Nordstream 2 is a write off, number 1 soon will be, but blowing them up at this point in time could have felt like Western Europe is suffering much more than Russia.

P. S. At home it's 18C inside but the boiler stays off. Heating is limited to a single room, while we're up to several layers of clothes. This is a choice totally unrelated to the cost of gas and/or electricity.

[Wraith]

Presuming that it was sabotage, I've been trying to figure out who would actually benefit from making such an attack, and other than a nebulous benefit to Ukraine by blocking a future carrot to Europe from Russia, I'm not seeing anything.

Anyone else got a rationale?

False flag plans. Spite. Russia's military doesn't have an abundance of rational actors (they keep falling out of windows) or firm control over their military right now, so you don't really need much deep explanation.

But really I'd suspect it was some non-state actor looking to strike at Russia this time.

[Steely Glint]

I mean, fairly clearly it's meant to put additional economic pressure on Europe with gas prices high and winter approaching, and perhaps serve as a warning about Russia's capabilities in that area.

[BalticSailor]

and perhaps serve as a warning about Russia's capabilities in that area.

That's what I'd guess.

I mean, there's the Baltic Pipe:

https://bnn-news.com/official-launch...-russia-238919

I can't find a map which shows both route of the Baltic Pipe and the sites of the Nord Stream leaks, or one that shows either with sufficient precision, but to me they do seem to be uncomfortably close to each other.

[Wraith]

I'd heard that theory, that it was a botched Russian op looking to hit the Baltic Pipe. It's pretty easy to believe.

[BalticSailor]

That sounds like a new peak of incompetence for Russians, if true. I mean, sure, the pipelines are kinda close to each other, but not that close, surely?
I would expect any means of attack that can reach the Nord Stream pipes near Bornholm, to be capable of hitting the other pipe, too, and with the naval base in Kaliningrad it doesn't seem too difficult to pull off, but for them to mix up the pipes? If that's the way their operations are run, I'd expect the next New Year address to the nation from the Kremlin to be delivered in Ukrainian.

[Wraith]

That sounds like a new peak of incompetence for Russians, if true. I mean, sure, the pipelines are kinda close to each other, but not that close, surely?
I would expect any means of attack that can reach the Nord Stream pipes near Bornholm, to be capable of hitting the other pipe, too, and with the naval base in Kaliningrad it doesn't seem too difficult to pull off, but for them to mix up the pipes? If that's the way their operations are run, I'd expect the next New Year address to the nation from the Kremlin to be delivered in Ukrainian.

I could see it happening - their C&C is extremely broken right now, and you've seen the cardboard they use as tank armor or the rusty guns they're fighting with, right? So they send a sub or boat out with orders to blow the Baltic pipe, but the ship is a bit off in their heading and there's no pipe to blow at their destination, so they circle around until they spot a pipeline, think "that must be it!" and set to work screwing up yet again. Not saying that's what happened, but it's plausible to me.

[Steely Glint]

The problem with that theory is that both pipe-lines were hit in multiple places.

[Wraith]

Multiple places still tracks, because they probably weren't told that there was their own pipeline in the area that they should not be hitting - unlike Western militaries, Russia runs its by micromanagement and not telling anyone more than the bare minimum. Captured Russian soldiers in the early days of the war weren't even aware they were in Ukraine. Hitting both pipelines...it makes it a bit more of a reach, but I could still see them just deciding a pipe's a pipe, and that's what they're here to crack open, so they better get them both to make sure one of them was the right one.

I'm just speculating though, I have nothing to back this up. I'd still favor the non-state actor looking to bloody Russia's nose theory.

[Hazir]

Or to cut off any way back for Vladimir. With love from the rabidly anti western lobby.

[LittleFuzzy]

I'd heard that theory, that it was a botched Russian op looking to hit the Baltic Pipe. It's pretty easy to believe.

That would be hilarious. Kinda hard to believe though, since there were two distinct events, 17 hours apart, on Nord 2 and then Nord 1. If they botched the first and then went back to try again and hit their OTHER pipe, that tells me they had internal sabotage on their attempts to sabotage the competing pipe. A bit too implausible.

[Aimless]

Multiple places still tracks, because they probably weren't told that there was their own pipeline in the area that they should not be hitting - unlike Western militaries, Russia runs its by micromanagement and not telling anyone more than the bare minimum. Captured Russian soldiers in the early days of the war weren't even aware they were in Ukraine. Hitting both pipelines...it makes it a bit more of a reach, but I could still see them just deciding a pipe's a pipe, and that's what they're here to crack open, so they better get them both to make sure one of them was the right one.

I'm just speculating though, I have nothing to back this up. I'd still favor the non-state actor looking to bloody Russia's nose theory.

I could see it happening - their C&C is extremely broken right now, and you've seen the cardboard they use as tank armor or the rusty guns they're fighting with, right? So they send a sub or boat out with orders to blow the Baltic pipe, but the ship is a bit off in their heading and there's no pipe to blow at their destination, so they circle around until they spot a pipeline, think "that must be it!" and set to work screwing up yet again. Not saying that's what happened, but it's plausible to me.

That sounds like a new peak of incompetence for Russians, if true. I mean, sure, the pipelines are kinda close to each other, but not that close, surely?
I would expect any means of attack that can reach the Nord Stream pipes near Bornholm, to be capable of hitting the other pipe, too, and with the naval base in Kaliningrad it doesn't seem too difficult to pull off, but for them to mix up the pipes? If that's the way their operations are run, I'd expect the next New Year address to the nation from the Kremlin to be delivered in Ukrainian.

I'd heard that theory, that it was a botched Russian op looking to hit the Baltic Pipe. It's pretty easy to believe.

I mean, fairly clearly it's meant to put additional economic pressure on Europe with gas prices high and winter approaching, and perhaps serve as a warning about Russia's capabilities in that area.

Getting the pipelines mixed up sounds like the least plausible scenario. Don't think risking escalation and wasting resources just to demonstrate already-expected capabilities in the Baltic is a likely explanation either. Non-state actors don't seem likely—costly and difficult op. States in the region would, I think, be more mindful of environmental risks. The sabotage limits Putin's options now as well as in any future negotiations—makes it more difficult for him to get a break in exchange for gas. One possibility is that the leaks are an accidental result of some other tampering. I guess there's probably some way Gazprom might be able to benefit from this as well?

[Steely Glint]

Russia formally annexes four regions of Ukraine, opening the way to a) deploying conscripts there and b) using nuclear weapons, and Ukraine announces its formal application to join NATO, the situation is now what IR experts term 'extremely spicy'.

[Being]

Russia formally annexes four regions of Ukraine, opening the way to a) deploying conscripts there and b) using nuclear weapons, and Ukraine announces its formal application to join NATO, the situation is now what IR experts term 'extremely spicy'.

Makes me curious as to how Russia is still relevant to the UN. Kick them out.

[wiggin]

Makes me curious as to how Russia is still relevant to the UN. Kick them out.

I do not think that is legally possible, Being.

More broadly, one might argue that despite the very real problems with having pariah states in the UN in general (setting aside the specifics with Russia), there is value in having a venue where everyone can engage diplomatically.

[BalticSailor]

Captured Russian soldiers in the early days of the war weren't even aware they were in Ukraine.

Reportedly, they were instructed to claim that in case of capture, in hopes of better treatment by the Ukrainians, but they were actually fully aware of their location. Not that it had any effect; the "we got lost during field exercises" story was already in use by captured Russian soldiers in Donbass in 2014.

[Hazir]

I do not think that is legally possible, Being.

More broadly, one might argue that despite the very real problems with having pariah states in the UN in general (setting aside the specifics with Russia), there is value in having a venue where everyone can engage diplomatically.

We would have to look into the mechanics that gave the PRC the seat on the security council.

[Aimless]

Sweden's largest daily now reporting that the Swedish navy had ships out in the vicinity of the explosions hours before they occurred:

https://www.dn.se/sverige/svenska-ma...-explosionerna

Navy source has confirmed location and timing. Sufficiently close for coincidence to seem like a very implausible explanation.

[BalticSailor]

The Russian-built Crimea bridge has been damaged by a slightly belated fireworks show in honor of Putin's 70th birthday.

[Aimless]

The Russian-built Crimea bridge has been damaged by a slightly belated fireworks show in honor of Putin's 70th birthday.

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[Wraith]

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Slava Ukraini