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Thread: Twenty Years On...

  1. #301
    Quote Originally Posted by Wraith View Post
    It's going to be a meat grinder. They're sending these people into Ukraine with whatever cold war equipment remnants they can find that they haven't used already, and they're doing it in winter.
    Perhaps this will finally influence their support for the war.
    Carthāgō dēlenda est

  2. #302
    Those protests against the draft are starting to get pretty violent and arsony.

  3. #303
    Quote Originally Posted by Wraith View Post
    Those protests against the draft are starting to get pretty violent and arsony.
    Too little too late. Some 300k (initially) of them will soon learn that staying silent up until now has its price, too.

    The "referendums" on joining Russia have started in the occupied regions, and the results will enable Russia to claim that Ukraine is attacking its territory. This will probably result in Russia officially declaring war. And they will need the manpower, so getting sent to die over there ASAP is an increasingly likely future prospect for many russian citizens.
    Carthāgō dēlenda est

  4. #304
    Not a good time to be a Russian squad leader. When everyone behind you would prefer to see you dead than to charge forward, it's not good for your health.
    Last edited by Loki; 09-23-2022 at 07:57 PM.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  5. #305
    That's what barrier troops are for.
    Carthāgō dēlenda est

  6. #306
    Russia doesn't have enough motivated troops to fight on the front line, let alone to sit in the rear.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  7. #307
    Oh, that problem has a simple fix - explain that if the second line doesn't push the first line forward, they themselves become the first line. There's your motivation.
    Carthāgō dēlenda est

  8. #308
    Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines damaged, Swedish seismologists report detecting explosions at the damage sites:

    https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2...ream-gas-leaks
    Carthāgō dēlenda est

  9. #309
    Presuming that it was sabotage, I've been trying to figure out who would actually benefit from making such an attack, and other than a nebulous benefit to Ukraine by blocking a future carrot to Europe from Russia, I'm not seeing anything.

    Anyone else got a rationale?
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

  10. #310
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    I don't. But then again virtually nothing makes sense these days. Still would bet on the Russians being behind this. Nordstream 2 is a write off, number 1 soon will be, but blowing them up at this point in time could have felt like Western Europe is suffering much more than Russia.

    P. S. At home it's 18C inside but the boiler stays off. Heating is limited to a single room, while we're up to several layers of clothes. This is a choice totally unrelated to the cost of gas and/or electricity.
    Congratulations America

  11. #311
    Quote Originally Posted by LittleFuzzy View Post
    Presuming that it was sabotage, I've been trying to figure out who would actually benefit from making such an attack, and other than a nebulous benefit to Ukraine by blocking a future carrot to Europe from Russia, I'm not seeing anything.

    Anyone else got a rationale?
    False flag plans. Spite. Russia's military doesn't have an abundance of rational actors (they keep falling out of windows) or firm control over their military right now, so you don't really need much deep explanation.

    But really I'd suspect it was some non-state actor looking to strike at Russia this time.

  12. #312
    I mean, fairly clearly it's meant to put additional economic pressure on Europe with gas prices high and winter approaching, and perhaps serve as a warning about Russia's capabilities in that area.
    We're sleepwalking
    Piercing, hateful eyes are watching
    We're sleepwalking
    The hungry ghosts are never patient

  13. #313
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    and perhaps serve as a warning about Russia's capabilities in that area.
    That's what I'd guess.

    I mean, there's the Baltic Pipe:

    https://bnn-news.com/official-launch...-russia-238919

    I can't find a map which shows both route of the Baltic Pipe and the sites of the Nord Stream leaks, or one that shows either with sufficient precision, but to me they do seem to be uncomfortably close to each other.
    Carthāgō dēlenda est

  14. #314
    I'd heard that theory, that it was a botched Russian op looking to hit the Baltic Pipe. It's pretty easy to believe.

  15. #315
    That sounds like a new peak of incompetence for Russians, if true. I mean, sure, the pipelines are kinda close to each other, but not that close, surely?
    I would expect any means of attack that can reach the Nord Stream pipes near Bornholm, to be capable of hitting the other pipe, too, and with the naval base in Kaliningrad it doesn't seem too difficult to pull off, but for them to mix up the pipes? If that's the way their operations are run, I'd expect the next New Year address to the nation from the Kremlin to be delivered in Ukrainian.
    Carthāgō dēlenda est

  16. #316
    Quote Originally Posted by BalticSailor View Post
    That sounds like a new peak of incompetence for Russians, if true. I mean, sure, the pipelines are kinda close to each other, but not that close, surely?
    I would expect any means of attack that can reach the Nord Stream pipes near Bornholm, to be capable of hitting the other pipe, too, and with the naval base in Kaliningrad it doesn't seem too difficult to pull off, but for them to mix up the pipes? If that's the way their operations are run, I'd expect the next New Year address to the nation from the Kremlin to be delivered in Ukrainian.
    I could see it happening - their C&C is extremely broken right now, and you've seen the cardboard they use as tank armor or the rusty guns they're fighting with, right? So they send a sub or boat out with orders to blow the Baltic pipe, but the ship is a bit off in their heading and there's no pipe to blow at their destination, so they circle around until they spot a pipeline, think "that must be it!" and set to work screwing up yet again. Not saying that's what happened, but it's plausible to me.

  17. #317
    The problem with that theory is that both pipe-lines were hit in multiple places.
    We're sleepwalking
    Piercing, hateful eyes are watching
    We're sleepwalking
    The hungry ghosts are never patient

  18. #318
    Multiple places still tracks, because they probably weren't told that there was their own pipeline in the area that they should not be hitting - unlike Western militaries, Russia runs its by micromanagement and not telling anyone more than the bare minimum. Captured Russian soldiers in the early days of the war weren't even aware they were in Ukraine. Hitting both pipelines...it makes it a bit more of a reach, but I could still see them just deciding a pipe's a pipe, and that's what they're here to crack open, so they better get them both to make sure one of them was the right one.

    I'm just speculating though, I have nothing to back this up. I'd still favor the non-state actor looking to bloody Russia's nose theory.

  19. #319
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    Or to cut off any way back for Vladimir. With love from the rabidly anti western lobby.
    Congratulations America

  20. #320
    Quote Originally Posted by Wraith View Post
    I'd heard that theory, that it was a botched Russian op looking to hit the Baltic Pipe. It's pretty easy to believe.
    That would be hilarious. Kinda hard to believe though, since there were two distinct events, 17 hours apart, on Nord 2 and then Nord 1. If they botched the first and then went back to try again and hit their OTHER pipe, that tells me they had internal sabotage on their attempts to sabotage the competing pipe. A bit too implausible.
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

  21. #321
    Quote Originally Posted by Wraith View Post
    Multiple places still tracks, because they probably weren't told that there was their own pipeline in the area that they should not be hitting - unlike Western militaries, Russia runs its by micromanagement and not telling anyone more than the bare minimum. Captured Russian soldiers in the early days of the war weren't even aware they were in Ukraine. Hitting both pipelines...it makes it a bit more of a reach, but I could still see them just deciding a pipe's a pipe, and that's what they're here to crack open, so they better get them both to make sure one of them was the right one.

    I'm just speculating though, I have nothing to back this up. I'd still favor the non-state actor looking to bloody Russia's nose theory.
    Quote Originally Posted by Wraith View Post
    I could see it happening - their C&C is extremely broken right now, and you've seen the cardboard they use as tank armor or the rusty guns they're fighting with, right? So they send a sub or boat out with orders to blow the Baltic pipe, but the ship is a bit off in their heading and there's no pipe to blow at their destination, so they circle around until they spot a pipeline, think "that must be it!" and set to work screwing up yet again. Not saying that's what happened, but it's plausible to me.
    Quote Originally Posted by BalticSailor View Post
    That sounds like a new peak of incompetence for Russians, if true. I mean, sure, the pipelines are kinda close to each other, but not that close, surely?
    I would expect any means of attack that can reach the Nord Stream pipes near Bornholm, to be capable of hitting the other pipe, too, and with the naval base in Kaliningrad it doesn't seem too difficult to pull off, but for them to mix up the pipes? If that's the way their operations are run, I'd expect the next New Year address to the nation from the Kremlin to be delivered in Ukrainian.
    Quote Originally Posted by Wraith View Post
    I'd heard that theory, that it was a botched Russian op looking to hit the Baltic Pipe. It's pretty easy to believe.
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    I mean, fairly clearly it's meant to put additional economic pressure on Europe with gas prices high and winter approaching, and perhaps serve as a warning about Russia's capabilities in that area.
    Getting the pipelines mixed up sounds like the least plausible scenario. Don't think risking escalation and wasting resources just to demonstrate already-expected capabilities in the Baltic is a likely explanation either. Non-state actors don't seem likely—costly and difficult op. States in the region would, I think, be more mindful of environmental risks. The sabotage limits Putin's options now as well as in any future negotiations—makes it more difficult for him to get a break in exchange for gas. One possibility is that the leaks are an accidental result of some other tampering. I guess there's probably some way Gazprom might be able to benefit from this as well?
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  22. #322
    Russia formally annexes four regions of Ukraine, opening the way to a) deploying conscripts there and b) using nuclear weapons, and Ukraine announces its formal application to join NATO, the situation is now what IR experts term 'extremely spicy'.
    We're sleepwalking
    Piercing, hateful eyes are watching
    We're sleepwalking
    The hungry ghosts are never patient

  23. #323
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    Russia formally annexes four regions of Ukraine, opening the way to a) deploying conscripts there and b) using nuclear weapons, and Ukraine announces its formal application to join NATO, the situation is now what IR experts term 'extremely spicy'.
    Makes me curious as to how Russia is still relevant to the UN. Kick them out.
    .

  24. #324
    Quote Originally Posted by Being View Post
    Makes me curious as to how Russia is still relevant to the UN. Kick them out.
    I do not think that is legally possible, Being.

    More broadly, one might argue that despite the very real problems with having pariah states in the UN in general (setting aside the specifics with Russia), there is value in having a venue where everyone can engage diplomatically.
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  25. #325
    Quote Originally Posted by Wraith View Post
    Captured Russian soldiers in the early days of the war weren't even aware they were in Ukraine.
    Reportedly, they were instructed to claim that in case of capture, in hopes of better treatment by the Ukrainians, but they were actually fully aware of their location. Not that it had any effect; the "we got lost during field exercises" story was already in use by captured Russian soldiers in Donbass in 2014.
    Carthāgō dēlenda est

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