Twenty Years On...

[Being]

This won't help Ukrainians feel any safer...

https://www.theverge.com/2022/2/24/2...ation-invasion

At least the two cosmonauts are outnumbered...

Oh my...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...MJe?li=BBnb7Kz

[Hazir]

Wow. SWIFT access is on the verge of being closed down?

[Steely Glint]

Just Hungary standing in the way now, according to what I've read.

[Hazir]

Just Hungary standing in the way now, according to what I've read.

Strange, I read that Oban will support any EU sanction, including Swift.

[Loki]

The current conflict looks too close for comfort for Hungarians who still remember 1956.

[Ominous Gamer]

Kyiv: full consensus for disconnecting Russia from SWIFT has been achieved, the process has begun
https://www.uawire.org/kyiv-full-con...cess-has-begun

[Being]

A friend is going to see a Russian Ballet performance of Swan Lake today. I commented that it should be fun watching the Russians dance around on their tippy toes. Her reply astonished me, she asked if she should bring seeds they can put in their pockets...

[Ominous Gamer]

Fields of sunflowers is one of those sayings I hope sticks with humanity for a while. Go fuck yourself is already up there as the tagline for this invasion.

From it's grandmothers to its leadership, Putin has shown the world that ukrainians are fucking badasses.

This proactive approach the citizens, its leadership, and it's allies have taken to getting information out of Ukraine has really thrown a wrench into the Russian propaganda machine. Even the Ghost of Kyiv took forever to debunk.

[Ominous Gamer]

Just read that Russia has accomplished (what I believe to be) one of its main objectives. Securing Crimea's water supply. I get that Russia wants its Iron Curtain back, but I wouldn't be surprised, if the invasion continues to fail like it is, to see the canal used in bargaining.

[Aimless]

I mean their supply lines are wonky, their tanks are outta fuel, Ukrainians are driving around offering to tow them back to Russia, Russian conscripts appear to have been tricked... Putin's next move is likely to be some pretty severe atrocities aimed at scaring cities into surrendering, and it's not gonna work.

[BalticSailor]

A friend is going to see a Russian Ballet performance of Swan Lake today. I commented that it should be fun watching the Russians dance around on their tippy toes. Her reply astonished me, she asked if she should bring seeds they can put in their pockets...

The Swan Lake score itself is symbolic enough, really: https://hazlitt.net/feature/portento...oviet-politics

[Steely Glint]

Strange, I read that Oban will support any EU sanction, including Swift.

I think that's a recent development, either hadn't happened when I posted or I hadn't seen it.

[LittleFuzzy]

I mean their supply lines are wonky, their tanks are outta fuel, Ukrainians are driving around offering to tow them back to Russia, Russian conscripts appear to have been tricked... Putin's next move is likely to be some pretty severe atrocities aimed at scaring cities into surrendering, and it's not gonna work.

I think you're overestimating how poorly it's going vs how they were prepared for it to go. Russian objectives, it seems to be, are secure and either annex or establish a puppet state in the eastern regions where they've been formenting unrest and fighting for the last eight years, make Crimea more secure, and establish if not a puppet government over the rest of the Ukraine then at least a Russian-friendly one which knows who it ought to be looking to, backed by Russian security forces. The 1st isn't accomplished yet but is almost inevitable. The 2nd is accomplished though that could be turned around if somehow they fail on #1. And a minimum #3 was a place Ukraine was in not even ten years ago. It's not exactly a bastion of free democracy right now, just a bit more of one than before the 2004 and 2014 protests against the Russian-supported Yanukovych. Putin thinks he can turn back the clock and do a better job of keeping the pro-Russian government(s) in power and he may well be right. If he can cause enough unrest he could even accomplish it without taking Kiev though seizing the capital makes it rather easier. The long-term success depends on a rather different set of factors than this military campaign.

[Steely Glint]

Twitter Link

[Steely Glint]

It's about to kick off in Kyiv.

[Hazir]

I think you're overestimating how poorly it's going vs how they were prepared for it to go. Russian objectives, it seems to be, are secure and either annex or establish a puppet state in the eastern regions where they've been formenting unrest and fighting for the last eight years, make Crimea more secure, and establish if not a puppet government over the rest of the Ukraine then at least a Russian-friendly one which knows who it ought to be looking to, backed by Russian security forces. The 1st isn't accomplished yet but is almost inevitable. The 2nd is accomplished though that could be turned around if somehow they fail on #1. And a minimum #3 was a place Ukraine was in not even ten years ago. It's not exactly a bastion of free democracy right now, just a bit more of one than before the 2004 and 2014 protests against the Russian-supported Yanukovych. Putin thinks he can turn back the clock and do a better job of keeping the pro-Russian government(s) in power and he may well be right. If he can cause enough unrest he could even accomplish it without taking Kiev though seizing the capital makes it rather easier. The long-term success depends on a rather different set of factors than this military campaign.

I am seriously surprised that you talk about the possibility of a long term success. Aside from the situation in Ukraine, where long term success would be the installation of yet another puppet regime dancing to the Russian tune, what Putin already has achieved is a build up of NATO force on his own borders with almost certain massive increases in defensive spending in Europe. I don't know about you Americans, but here in Europe we know very well that what Ukraine shows, is that Putin is an enemy who's not likely to stop once Kyiv falls. And if I as a Dutch citizen didn't get that, my fellow Europeans in parts of Europe bordering Russia would be there to make me aware of that.

TLDR: this war's only certain long term success will be Putin's worst nightmare already having been achieved

[Hazir]

It's about to kick off in Kyiv.

Just wondering : when did you start using Kyiv? I switched from Kiev to Kyiv on the day of the invasion, when I was made aware of the difference.

[Steely Glint]

I mean, it's not a word I have cause to write much but like you, since I became aware of the difference.

[Lewkowski]

Well I didn't see that coming, Germany actually doing the right thing.

[LittleFuzzy]

I am seriously surprised that you talk about the possibility of a long term success. Aside from the situation in Ukraine, where long term success would be the installation of yet another puppet regime dancing to the Russian tune

The situation in Ukraine is what I'm talking about and I do think he'll stop there if he can get his Russia-adhering regime installed. For a year or two. And I don't know the region well enough to predict with confidence whether Putin can set up and maintain that regime. He failed before but he appears confident he can manage now, with the eastern separatists trained and blooded over the last few years and Russian experiences with manipulating elections. I do know the West well enough to NOT have confidence in their ability/interest in stopping it or rolling it back

[Lewkowski]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...o-ukraine-plea

Nice

[Hazir]

The situation in Ukraine is what I'm talking about and I do think he'll stop there if he can get his Russia-adhering regime installed. For a year or two. And I don't know the region well enough to predict with confidence whether Putin can set up and maintain that regime. He failed before but he appears confident he can manage now, with the eastern separatists trained and blooded over the last few years and Russian experiences with manipulating elections. I do know the West well enough to NOT have confidence in their ability/interest in stopping it or rolling it back

You are entirely missing the point; Thursday morning Putin started war in Europe by invading Ukraine. We are concerned about Ukraine, but what unites Europe now is the struggle for survival that we have been thrown in utterly unprepared. We are uniting not to support Ukraine but to save ourselves.

And this is the miscalculation Putin made; he thought that the EU, again, would lull itself back to sleep as he would simply take back what was his in the first place. 'We' though took it for a wake up call.

Public discourse here has changed beyond recognition. In the Netherlands the Green party all of a sudden wants to spend more on defense, Labour's left extremists were forced to retract support for an anti-nato open letter, Scandinavia is re-thinking its relation to nato.

And do I seriously have to mention that Germany has probably cut itself off from Russian fuel by consenting to throw Russian banks out of Swift. That this constitutes 40% of their natural gas needs?

Again, this is a European war, with a hot phase in Ukraine.

[Being]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...o-ukraine-plea

Nice

I hope he got permission from the US government. Talk about possible international repercussions because of one individual citizen making decisions to interfere with a war that is not even on his soil. Dangerous is a more appropriate description if it is not sanctioned by our government.

edit: Lewk, if Musk pisses off Putin to the point he launches nukes, do you think he will try to single out Musk with those nukes?

[Lewkowski]

I hope he got permission from the US government. Talk about possible international repercussions because of one individual citizen making decisions to interfere with a war that is not even on his soil. Dangerous is a more appropriate description if it is not sanctioned by our government.

edit: Lewk, if Musk pisses off Putin to the point he launches nukes, do you think he will try to single out Musk with those nukes?

Lmao what? You do realize there is no law that prevents Musk from providing internet overseas. The United States isn't at war with Russia or Ukraine and to my knowledge there are no sanctions against Ukraine in effect meaning there is zero issue with Elon doing this. Also I'm pretty sure Putin has bigger issues than Elon Musk providing satellite internet.

[Hazir]

I hope he got permission from the US government. Talk about possible international repercussions because of one individual citizen making decisions to interfere with a war that is not even on his soil. Dangerous is a more appropriate description if it is not sanctioned by our government.

edit: Lewk, if Musk pisses off Putin to the point he launches nukes, do you think he will try to single out Musk with those nukes?

What kind of stupid comment is this? Why don't you send the keys of your house and car to Putin right here and now if you are this worried about not getting in his way?

[Steely Glint]

edit: Lewk, if Musk pisses off Putin to the point he launches nukes, do you think he will try to single out Musk with those nukes?

Yeah, see, this is why Elon wants to get to Mars. It's so Putin can't get him with nukes.

Take of the century.

[Aimless]

Putin orders nuclear command on high alert:

Twitter Link

Likelihood of being assassinated rising.

I think you're overestimating how poorly it's going vs how they were prepared for it to go. Russian objectives, it seems to be, are secure and either annex or establish a puppet state in the eastern regions where they've been formenting unrest and fighting for the last eight years, make Crimea more secure, and establish if not a puppet government over the rest of the Ukraine then at least a Russian-friendly one which knows who it ought to be looking to, backed by Russian security forces. The 1st isn't accomplished yet but is almost inevitable. The 2nd is accomplished though that could be turned around if somehow they fail on #1. And a minimum #3 was a place Ukraine was in not even ten years ago. It's not exactly a bastion of free democracy right now, just a bit more of one than before the 2004 and 2014 protests against the Russian-supported Yanukovych. Putin thinks he can turn back the clock and do a better job of keeping the pro-Russian government(s) in power and he may well be right. If he can cause enough unrest he could even accomplish it without taking Kiev though seizing the capital makes it rather easier. The long-term success depends on a rather different set of factors than this military campaign.

So this is what I said a few days ago:

There's a broad range of escalatory measures short of war Russia can accept that most NATO-members simply do not have the stomach for—not when it comes to a country that isn't a member. I don't think Putin will go to war with NATO either—because NATO currently seems extremely unwilling to put itself in a position where Putin can go to war with NATO. Putin will secure the Donbas and harrass the rest of Ukraine for years, and NATO will offer support carefully calculated to avoid escalation to the point of war.

The post you replied to is about something else—I was thinking about Putin's options for salvaging the dog's breakfast he's made of the campaign beyond Donbas. Even if you regard that as a secondary or bonus objective, he does need a way to not lose that campaign.

[Aimless]

Russian intelligence has leaked a propaganda video trying to undermine Zelenskyy

Twitter Link

[Being]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...o-ukraine-plea

Nice

Lmao what? You do realize there is no law that prevents Musk from providing internet overseas. The United States isn't at war with Russia or Ukraine and to my knowledge there are no sanctions against Ukraine in effect meaning there is zero issue with Elon doing this. Also I'm pretty sure Putin has bigger issues than Elon Musk providing satellite internet.

What kind of stupid comment is this? Why don't you send the keys of your house and car to Putin right here and now if you are this worried about not getting in his way?

Yeah, see, this is why Elon wants to get to Mars. It's so Putin can't get him with nukes.

Take of the century.

You are all willing to put the direction of US war strategy into the hands of one single man? Even POTUS doesn't have that power (in theory). And if you think this is wise, could you choose a more unstable individual?

[Hazir]

You are all willing to put the direction of US war strategy into the hands of one single man? Even POTUS doesn't have that power (in theory). And if you think this is wise, could you choose a more unstable individual?

You seem to have no problem with that concept if that one man is Vladimir Putin.

All the West does is based in the foreign policy choice of seeing Ukraine as a sovereign country defending itself against an aggressor. Now you explain how Musks action isn't in full accordance.