Twenty Years On...

[Being]

You seem to have no problem with that concept if that one man is Vladimir Putin.

All the West does is based in the foreign policy choice of seeing Ukraine as a sovereign country defending itself against an aggressor. Now you explain how Musks action isn't in full accordance.

So we should hope that Microsoft will disable all Russian registered software? The major difference being Microsoft would need (discounting the fact the US government should be involved in such decision making) board approval whereas Musk is the board. I am really surprised that you believe use of space should be dictated by one man.

But you go on with your Lewkowskian way of thinking.

[Aimless]

Swedish govt. has announced that Sweden will provide Ukraine with 5000 anti-armour AT4 rocket launchers, 5000 body armour kits, and 135,000 field rations, on top of already approved financial support. Been interesting to see video purporting to show Russian convoys (or just a convoy?) wrecked by Turkish-made drones. Less thrilling are the credible reports of both Ukrainians and Polish border guards abusing or harrassing black people trying to flee Ukraine. Western media is now also trying to find a good way to deal with reports about the neo-Nazi Azov Battalion, and Ukraine's long (and ongoing) history of Roma persecution. Numerous reports of widespread protests against the war in many Russian cities, being met with violent crackdowns and thousands of arrests. Finally, I hear the International Judo Federation has finally suspended its honorary president—Vladimir Putin

[Lewkowski]

So we should hope that Microsoft will disable all Russian registered software? The major difference being Microsoft would need (discounting the fact the US government should be involved in such decision making) board approval whereas Musk is the board. I am really surprised that you believe use of space should be dictated by one man.

But you go on with your Lewkowskian way of thinking.

Musk is providing internet to Ukraine not cutting off internet from Russia. I really don't see your beef with Elon here.

[Being]

Musk is providing internet to Ukraine not cutting off internet from Russia. I really don't see your beef with Elon here.

The beef is not with him (though I really don't trust him) or that he is helping Ukraine. The beef is with him doing it without permission from the government under which he operates his business.

But I understand where you are coming from. If it makes your enemy cry then it is acceptable.

[Hazir]

The beef is not with him (though I really don't trust him) or that he is helping Ukraine. The beef is with him doing it without permission from the government under which he operates his business.

But I understand where you are coming from. If it makes your enemy cry then it is acceptable.

You are literally talking out of your ass. It is the stated policy of the US to support Ukrainian independence and Musk doing his part in supporting Ukrainian independence is 100% in line with the official policy.

In the real world Germany trebled it's military budget for 2022. Another succes for mister Putin.

[Being]

You are literally talking out of your ass. It is the stated policy of the US to support Ukrainian independence and Musk doing his part in supporting Ukrainian independence is 100% in line with the official policy.

In the real world Germany trebled it's military budget for 2022.

Don't ever change my posts without letting everyone know you have done that. What a fucking wanker.

[Unheard Of]

It will accomplish nothing but I'm feeling petty, so I'm going to mail a handful of sunflower seeds to Putin's official address.

Google translate suggests this would be a suitable note, but maybe I should just leave it in English?

Для ваших карманов

[Hazir]

Don't ever change my posts without letting everyone know you have done that. What a fucking wanker.

Did someone not take his pills today?

Ah I see. I noticed that sentence went missing but I jotted it down to accidentally having deleted it. I will put it in its intended location.

[Being]

Did someone not take his pills today?

Ah I see. I noticed that sentence went missing but I jotted it down to accidentally having deleted it. I will put it in its intended location.

Thank you.

[Aimless]

Decades of German foreign policy turned on its head practically overnight. EU announcing one surprising move after another—on refugees, on military support, on Ukrainian EU accession, etc. Hopefully the UK will follow suit and give Ukrainian refugees some clarity. EU leaders really taking the opportunity to show off the EU's best sides. This level of unity and will to act won't last, so everyone's trying to make the most of it. Ditto re. int'l sanctions.

[LittleFuzzy]

The post you replied to is about something else—I was thinking about Putin's options for salvaging the dog's breakfast he's made of the campaign beyond Donbas. Even if you regard that as a secondary or bonus objective, he does need a way to not lose that campaign.

The material I've been seeing that I think is reliable has not given me the indication that the campaign beyond Donbas has been a dog's breakfast, is the thing. My reading so far is that things have started out slower than we expected (but that Russian operations have been at a lower intensity in general than predicted as well). but that's as far as it goes, so far. They haven't captured urban centers but they haven't tried to do more than encircle them so far either. Though the fact that the Russians apparently? haven't established air supremacy yet IS a surprise and might mean your reading is closer than I think it is.

edit: I see my news is slightly out of date, they've started on Kharkiv

[LittleFuzzy]

You are all willing to put the direction of US war strategy into the hands of one single man? Even POTUS doesn't have that power (in theory). And if you think this is wise, could you choose a more unstable individual?

Promising (with no details as to how it might actually be accomplished) to shove out infrastructure to use his satellites isn't directing US war strategy*, is the thing, nor is it something anyone but a total lunatic might think would or should provoke even a tepid military response.

*in fact, it's just commercial opportunism on Musk's part, if it was more than an empty promise to begin with

[Being]

Promising (with no details as to how it might actually be accomplished) to shove out infrastructure to use his satellites isn't directing US war strategy*, is the thing, nor is it something anyone but a total lunatic might think would or should provoke even a tepid military response.

*in fact, it's just commercial opportunism on Musk's part, if it was more than an empty promise to begin with

If only international relations were as easy as rocket science. (quote from Scott Manley video I posted)

And if Musk wants to do something to save humanity he can start by figuring out how to steer the ISS without the Russians.

[Hazir]

Decades of German foreign policy turned on its head practically overnight. EU announcing one surprising move after another—on refugees, on military support, on Ukrainian EU accession, etc. Hopefully the UK will follow suit and give Ukrainian refugees some clarity. EU leaders really taking the opportunity to show off the EU's best sides. This level of unity and will to act won't last, so everyone's trying to make the most of it. Ditto re. int'l sanctions.

I wonder if 'poking the bear' is a thing in Russia.

[Aimless]

I wonder if 'poking the bear' is a thing in Russia.

Yes, as a sex thing—haven't you seen the photo of Putin?

The material I've been seeing that I think is reliable has not given me the indication that the campaign beyond Donbas has been a dog's breakfast, is the thing. My reading so far is that things have started out slower than we expected (but that Russian operations have been at a lower intensity in general than predicted as well). but that's as far as it goes, so far. They haven't captured urban centers but they haven't tried to do more than encircle them so far either. Though the fact that the Russians apparently? haven't established air supremacy yet IS a surprise and might mean your reading is closer than I think it is.

edit: I see my news is slightly out of date, they've started on Kharkiv

Nobody really seems to know what they were trying with the Spetsnaz incursion in Kharkiv. I was mostly thinking of the battle for Antonov Airport in Hostomel, the ongoing siege of Chernihiv, and the heavy losses the Russian forces appear to have sustained on their poorly supplied journey through Ukraine.

As expected, they've stepped up their efforts to kill civilians. The "indiscriminate" attacks are unconscionable war crimes, but they won't be sufficient. It's on-the-ground atrocities or bust, for this army of losers.

[Being]

Promising (with no details as to how it might actually be accomplished) to shove out infrastructure to use his satellites isn't directing US war strategy*, is the thing, nor is it something anyone but a total lunatic might think would or should provoke even a tepid military response.

*in fact, it's just commercial opportunism on Musk's part, if it was more than an empty promise to begin with

Jury is still out on this so...

us-intel-agencies-are-debating-whether-putin-has-gone-mad

...let me share with you what we were taught in elementary school back in the sixties...When you see the flash, get down on the ground, put your head between your legs, kiss your ass goodbye.

[Steely Glint]

You are all willing to put the direction of US war strategy into the hands of one single man? Even POTUS doesn't have that power (in theory). And if you think this is wise, could you choose a more unstable individual?

You think Elon's internet thingy is what's going to set him off, but not the thousands and thousands of weapons pouring into Ukraine from every direction, up to and including literal war planes?

[Being]

You think Elon's internet thingy is what's going to set him off, but not the thousands and thousands of weapons pouring into Ukraine from every direction, up to and including literal war planes?

No.

[LittleFuzzy]

Jury is still out on this so...

us-intel-agencies-are-debating-whether-putin-has-gone-mad

...let me share with you what we were taught in elementary school back in the sixties...When you see the flash, get down on the ground, put your head between your legs, kiss your ass goodbye.

Here's the thing about total lunatics. You can't tell WHAT will set them off, including total passivity, because that's suspicious too.

You objecting to any response or involvement by our governments is one thing. That can be explained by isolationist "local problems first and only" myopia. Objecting to this (fairly pointless) move by Musk is less rational. That has you throwing up "I am a Russian shill" signs

[Being]

Here's the thing about total lunatics. You can't tell WHAT will set them off, including total passivity, because that's suspicious too.

You objecting to any response or involvement by our governments is one thing. That can be explained by isolationist "local problems first and only" myopia. Objecting to this (fairly pointless) move by Musk is less rational. That has you throwing up "I am a Russian shill" signs

ah, okay.

[Lewkowski]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b2025338.html

Our billionaires are the best!

[LittleFuzzy]

I hate referring to it but I've had a hard time getting decent summaries/thoughts in other media so a couple of Twitter-threads it is. I'm certain I'm not going to be linking these correctly though, forgive me for that. I'm going to add one specific tactical detail I haven't seen most analyses mentioning yet: this is high-mud season over there. The Russians are confined to the road-network because a lot of the terrain is impassable to heavy traffic right now, and heavy tracked vehicles are murder to even really good roads which most of the Ukrainian road network is not. This will also severely impact attempts to withdraw the bulk of the Ukrainian forces which were deployed in the south-east dealing with the Russian-occupied "separatist" areas.

https://twitter.com/defencewithac/st...99000733949963

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/st...81975022940167

[Loki]

I'm not saying Russia is going to lose, but the first person is far too optimistic on Russia's behalf. Russia doesn't have the manpower to occupy all the cities in eastern Ukraine. Most of their soldiers are green. The morale is terrible. And that doesn't begin to take into account the economic consequences of Putin's actions, consequences that are hitting Russia quick and hard.

[Hazir]

I'm not saying Russia is going to lose, but the first person is far too optimistic on Russia's behalf. Russia doesn't have the manpower to occupy all the cities in eastern Ukraine. Most of their soldiers are green. The morale is terrible. And that doesn't begin to take into account the economic consequences of Putin's actions, consequences that are hitting Russia quick and hard.

The issue is that Russia (Putin) seems to have no qualms about destroying the Ukrainian state and infrastructure regardless of his capabilities to either conquer or occupy the country. I'm not sure if I shouldn't have included the Ukrainian people in my enumeration.

[Steely Glint]

It's hard to see how whatever political outcome Putin had in mind is going to happen after all this.

[Loki]

Unless he wanted an early retirement and didn't have the heart to request it himself.

[Steely Glint]

He might just get his wish.

[LittleFuzzy]

I'm not saying Russia is going to lose, but the first person is far too optimistic on Russia's behalf. Russia doesn't have the manpower to occupy all the cities in eastern Ukraine. Most of their soldiers are green. The morale is terrible. And that doesn't begin to take into account the economic consequences of Putin's actions, consequences that are hitting Russia quick and hard.

I can't imagine an occupation was ever something Putin really considered in the cards/wanted. So that's kinda moot. I'm not in a position to dispute the economic effects of all this on Russia one way or the other for the second point.

[Loki]

The plan seems to be to create a puppet state in eastern and southern Ukraine (including Kyiv). That would definitely require an occupation. It's possible that Putin was deluded enough to think otherwise, but he won't have much of a choice.

[Ominous Gamer]

I honestly think people aren't paying enough attention to the crimean canal. When Ukraine blocked it crimea lost like 90% of it's farmland, on top it's other water issues and restrictions. It was one of the first targets Russia attacked and gained control of and they already disabled the dam. I don't know how far Putin plans to take this thing but I don't think he will ever give up control on that canal.

(I can't remember if I've mentioned this on here before or not).